Kembla Grange Racing Tips: Saturday, November 20th

I’ll put (1) Shibli on top here who has been racing in super form all prep. Always very competitive in these sorts of races and while he’s getting up in trip, the rise to 2000m now should be ideal. Should handle all conditions as well. 

(6) Suppression is flying at the minute, winning two on the bounce following two good 2nds earlier in the prep. He’s still got a bit of upside being a four year old but will have to handle a drop back from 2400m today. 

(8) Avion Fury could be the value, having 2nd start for new stable following a decent enough return first up.

Tip: (1) Shibli - $4.80 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5u WIN Shibli

(4) Sizzling Cat deserves a win following a couple of good 2nds this prep. Was very good in a Highway last start but just got a touch too far back and couldn’t reel in the leaders. The extra 100m will suit today and gets in nice and light following the apprentice claim. Hard to beat. 

(1) Point Counterpoint got too far back first up but should be a bit closer in the run today. Was worth following off that run and can win here.

(6) Shelby Sixtysix is on the quick backup following a 2nd place finish in the Highway at Newcastle last Saturday. Jmac sticks for the ride and the horse is clearly going very well. Can save on him. 

(12) Mr Aloysius is a big price and can run a hole here for sure. Finds it hard to win but a break through is very close following four straight 2nds. 

Tip: (4) Sizzling Cat - $4.25 at Boombet

Also Backing: (1) Point Counterpoint - $9.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Sizzling Cat, 0.5u WIN Point Counterpoint

With the forecast for a bit of rain in the lead up to race day, I like (8) Dragonstone to make a winning return to the track. He proved his a horse with some ability in his first prep, winning one and running in the placings on two other occasions. His best performances came on heavy tracks and I expect him to give this a good shake today. Trial leading in was very smart and he will come back a much improved horse this 2nd prep. 

(4) Satin Ribbons the clear danger and is another horse who is very lightly raced and a heap of upside. Will roll to the lead and take come catching if gets it all her own way. 

Tip: (8) Dragonstone - $2.40 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3u WIN Dragonstone

Really liked the win of (4) Black Duke first up and I’m hoping that might be the turning point for him. He generally has struggled to win but thinking he may have come back a much better horse this time in. Handles all conditions, is a winner 2nd up previously and should map forward enough from gate 1. 

(1) Canasta goes well fresh and looks the likely leader. With the claim for Duggan he will give a good sight on speed and be tough to run down. 

(7) Rammstein next best and should improve following the first up run. 

Tip: (4) Black Duke - $4.85 at Boombet

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Black Duke

If the rain doesn’t happen to be as bad as predicted I had (1) Incredulous Dream down as a horse I was keen to be with. Think she is clearly the class in this race and has been well backed all week since markets went up. She goes very well fresh and the trials leading into this have been good enough.

(3) Selburose is as honest as they come. Hasn’t missed a placing in last five starts and was only grabbed late by Katalin last start. That form looks good enough here and now gets Jmac on. With a trail in running she’ll go close. 

(11) Queen Bellissimo can run well fresh here down in the weights. Showed a bit of talent early last prep and the trials leading into this have been very good. 

(2) Nicci’s Fling is another who can pop up here first up and win. Hard to knock.

Tip: (1) Incredulous Dream - $7.50 at Bet365

Value: (11) Queen Bellissimo - $10 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5u WIN Incredulous Dream, 0.25u WIN Queen Bellissimo

Really keen on (1) Easy Campese here who looks the class horse of this field. Like the 3kg claim for Schiller and this horse was a good run for 3rd in a much tougher race than this first up. His form throughout his career stacks up pretty nicely for a race like this and he should go straight to the lead from the wide draw and give a good sight. 

(3) Bluff ‘n’ Bluster looks close to breaking through and was extremely good in the Goulburn Cup last start at massive odds. Arguably could’ve won there without getting checked so looks ready to peak now.

(2) Travest next best.

Tip: (1) Easy Campese - $5.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1.5u WIN Easy Campese

Expecting (3) Malkovich to be extremeley hard to beat here in the first running of ‘The Warra’. Looks bursting to win one this prep following two very good 2nds down in some strong Melbourne sprints but again this will be dependent on the weather. He’s proven to a soft 7 but if we get into the heavy range I probably won’t back him. Should lead these up from the inside draw and looks ready to peak third up in what is the weakest race he’s tackled this prep. 

(6) Kylease looks a danger to me and has been going well since moving north to QLD. 

(2) Isuarian is another who can run a race and on best form I’d say he can win.

Tip: (3) Malkovich - $2.30 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2u WIN Malkovich

Feature race of the day sees a good field line up in a very open race this year. 

(11) Atishu was very good in the Epsom before losing the race at the start in the Golden Eagle. Showed good promise this prep and I think he’ll be one of the few in the market who will get a strong 1600m. 

(13) Criaderas draws wide and still no jockey booked but I think he’s a very good lgithweight chance. Was doing best work late when first up and should enjoy stretching to the mile now. He’s a tough horse to follow with his pattern but at his best he can win. 

(4) Count De Rupee is airborne, only being beaten late by a smart one in the Golden Eagle. If he runs 1600m he will be tough to beat. 

(6) Nudge will be a bet of the rain doesn’t come so keep an eye on what the track is doing.

Tip: (11) Atishu - $6.50 at TAB

Also Backing: (6) Nudge - $18 at TopSport

Value: (13) Criaderas - $26/$6.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Atishu, 0.25u WIN Nudge, 0.25u EACH WAY Criaderas

(4) Steely was one I wanted to follow off the first up run and looks a good winning chance today. Handles the wet if we are at that stage by now and is building a handy record with 7 wins from 19 career starts. Looks suited stepping to 1600m. 

(5) Wheelhouse was smashed in betting last start and should be nearing peak fitness now. Should get every favour from the nice draw. 

(7) Luvoir is the value and looks ready to do something 3rd up now. Can mix his form a bit but races well here and was very good late in the Goulburn Cup. Surprised he’s $20+.

Tip: (4) Steely - $7.60 at Boombet

Value: (7) Luvoir - $21.50 at Boombet

Betting Strategy: 0.5u WIN Steely, 0.25u WIN Luvoir

(6) Zegalo looks a good way to round out the day. proved he’s a good wet tracker with a last start win on heavy. Still has some uspide to come and may just go on with it this prep. 

(8) Dynamic Impact will be popular. In-form jockey and stable partner up here and this horse looked the part first up. Beat Zoushack there who has since come out and won and should see a nice run from barrier 7. Wet track is the query.

(10) Canyanero always seems to pop up at odds and run well in these sorts of races. 

Tip: (6) Zegalo - $8.50 at TopSPort

Betting Strategy: 0.5u WIN Zegalo