Ballarat Racing Tips: Saturday, November 20th

Great little contest to kick us off. (4) Lighthouse could hardly have been more impressive on her Australian debut, winning by 4L on a heavy track, breaking 12 seconds for her last 200m on the tough going. Perhaps the wet track helped but she did race mainly on firm tracks in America.

(6) Kurabui is a talented mare who bolted in first up last prep and has only lost once, which was at the end of last prep when wide in a bm90. She’s a huge chance of winning fresh.

(1) Frankie Pinot is flying this prep and is hard to knock again.

Lighthouse could turn out to be a very good horse but the prices look about right. Expect her to be quite firm and if Kurabui got out to $3.50-4 she might be a bet.

Tip: (6) Kurabui- $2.70 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

(3) Jimmy The Bear was ridden midfield at Flemington and just peaked on his run late but wasn’t beaten far. Gets Prebble on and can settle leader’s back from barrier 1 which may help.

(4) Star Midfielder had excuses as a $3 favourite last start at The Valley. He raced 3 wide no cover and pulled up with a slow recovery. His debut run was good behind Linas Legend and the maiden win was strong. He maps well.

(7) Decent Raine has been unlucky her last two and is due for a change. She’s been up a long time and might have to get back from the gate again so I don’t want to dive in to her as favourite.

(2) Daily Bugle was very good in the Flemington race, beating home Jimmy The Bear and Decent Raine. He’s fairly consistent and can win.

Tip: (3) Jimmy The Bear- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Star Midfielder- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Jimmy The Bear, 0.5 units WIN Star Midfielder

(1) Le Gagneur comes through the best raced form having placed behind Brereton and Renosu down the straight on debut. Query where he gets to on the map and how good the debutants are.

(3) Nannu missed the start in the same race and closed off slightly better than Le Gagneur. If he jumps well he’s a big player.

(11) Fly Nice looks speedy off her jumpouts and with Linda on from barrier 1 she’s going to take plenty of running down.

Tip: (3) Nannu- $12.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Nannu

(2) Lady Pluck can run a race at odds. She should’ve finished a bit closer in a strong race last start behind Exeter and The Gauch. Ballarat from the chute should suit her better and the 3kg claim is ideal.

(6) Duchess Of Dorset looks the one to beat coming off a narrow defeat at Flemington. The query is whether she can extend to 1200m but she should get every chance.

(10) La Bella Costa was good late in the same race first up and does generally run well 2nd up. She should run well.

Tip: (2) Lady Pluck- $14.00/3.40 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Lady Pluck

I think (4) It’sourtime should be a narrow favourite. He was too good first up down the straight with 60kg in a great return. He did plenty in his first prep including a 2nd to Oxley Road at Caulfield. He should lob just behind the speed and be hard to beat.

(5) The Gauch is consistent and racing well. His last few runs have started to sway me that he might be better over 1100m than 1200m, having every chance at The Valley last start. He maps well again and should be right there.

(1) Sirius Suspect bounced back to form last start with a 2nd to Quantico in fast time. Has to carry 60kg and away from Flemington are the knocks but he’ll lead and his best is good enough.

(10) Ocean Beyond is the one that interests me after scratchings. I don’t think he ran out 1400m last start but his prior runs at 1200m were good enough to be very competitive here. If The Gauch does struggle at the very last bit of 1200m Ocean Beyond will have the suck run.

(2) Neighbourhood can run well fresh.

 

Tip: (10) Ocean Beyond- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Ocean Beyond

Good race. (8) Marabi is unbeaten from 3 starts and has recorded some big last 600m times. She’s started $1.16 and $1.22 her last two and is definitely better than bm70 grade. Some query she’s always been in slowly run races and had a huge turn of foot. A faster race could bring out a better race.

(7) Litchfield County clearly didn’t handle the heavy track first up and he’s been given a let up since then. He jumped out well prior and his form last prep was very good, running 2nd to Beau Rossa, 3rd to Muntaseera and 4th to Minhaaj. If he’s back to his best he can run a big race.

(13) Savannah Cloud was consistent last prep without winning. He can be competitive fresh off a quiet jumpout.

Marabi could be too good but happy to have a decent 1×4 bet on Litchfield County, with $3 available for the place. Hoping he can bounce back on a good track.

 

Tip: (7) Litchfield County- $9.00/3.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/1.25 units E/W Litchfield County

Strong contest. (5) Alcyone sat close to a strong speed on Stakes Day and looked in trouble 300m out but lifted late to still come home in the fastest last 200m of the race. He’s a progressive horse who would’ve been competitive in the Cup.

(12) Kissinger is ready to win. He’s 2/2 when 3rd up and has finished well in both runs this prep. 3rd up last prep he started $1.65 and beat Wentwood home by 4L. He gets in with 53.5kg and up to 2000m which looks ideal.

(6) Wyclif is the blowout. He was quite good first up in the Peninsula Cup and go back to last prep- he started $2.60 against Grand Promenade and also beat home Silent Sovereign who is single figures here and in good form.

(2) Silent Sovereign is ready to peak 3rd up after just being run down in the last stride by Our Playboy who nearly won the Cranbourne Cup. She has to carry 58.5kg and give weight away to a few handy ones.

Tip: (5) Alcyone- $3.30 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (12) Kissinger- $12.00 at Bet365

Value: (6) Wyclif- $51.00/12.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Alcyone, 0.5 units WIN Kissinger, 0.25 units E/W Wyclif

Now that the forecast is suggesting no rain, I’m keen to stick with (11) Thought Of That who is flying. He’s won his last three by big margins, the latest when backed into $1.55 at The Valley and proving far too strong. The key here again is the map- he looks to get an uncontested lead again and with Meech on he’s going to look the winner for a long way. Should get a dry track, lead for fun and win.

(6) Zayydani was good in the Matriarch sneaking up the inside. She’ll likely have to do so again from barrier 1. She’s in great form and looks the logical danger.

(15) Skyman was no match for Thought Of That last time but is racing well and maps for a soft run.

(3) Hang Man could be the best roughie 3rd up.

Tip: (11) Thought Of That- $3.30 at BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Thought Of That

Nearly impossible this race. (14) New Choice is ready to peak 3rd up, where he’s won 2 from 4. He comes out of the Peninsula Cup beaten 2.75L and this looks a good race for him. He’s got a great record at the mile and at $26 he’s not hopeless.

(11) Typhoon Harmony was just nosed out in the Country final at Flemington. He gets a weight swing and gets a very soft run from barrier 2. He’s short enough at $4.80 however.

(1) Bermadez was too good in that race but draws very wide again, as he did last start.

(8) Seiners Express next best who is very consistent.

Tip: (14) New Choice- $26.00/7.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W New Choice

Good race to finish and (7) Marine One is the horse to beat. He was well beaten in the Coolmore but that was a very strong race, and take out Home Affairs who could be a star he wasn’t far off the likes of Artorius and Ranch Hand, beating home some good 3yo’s. I prefer him back to 1100m and he gets a soft draw.

(6) Starry Legend didn’t look to handle the straight last start and can improve back around a bend. He was very good prior at The Valley behind Dexelation who has won again since. 1100m is the query but he should lead.

(11) Fake Love gets a weight swing on Marine One from last start but she had every chance that night and Marine One had to circle the field against the pattern.

(13) Authentic Jewel is an interesting one down from a 900m win at Newcastle. Tough to line up but 1100m might be a query.

Tip: (6) Starry Legend- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Starry Legend