Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, October 30th

Odds Last Updated: October 31, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(7) Bobsled looks to have found a nice race here. On debut, he led everywhere bar the post at Murtoa, where he was run down by Cheronkoh who has since come out and run well again. Last start at Mornington, he just struck a bit of trouble after taking a sit in the run. He was held up until the 200m mark and then didn’t get a lot of room the last 100m or so. The blinkers go on for the first time tonight, J Kah goes on board which is a great jockey change, and I expect them to be aggressive and lead tonight. With the rail out 5m, he looks very hard to beat.

(3) Orrong Road draws the coffin in barrier 1 which might not suit his racing style if he ends up back in the field, but he’s run well in his past two starts and a win isn’t far away.

Getting back onto a good track should be the key for (10) Imagine Howe, so the $6.50 probably appeals as a touch of value with him.

(8) Captain Canuck has been running in the country but the Maher/Eustace camp bring him to town tonight. The form out of those races has been very ordinary but I’d be wary nonetheless.

Tip: (7) Bobsled $2.60 Unibet

Value: (10) Imagine Howe $6.50 Palmerbet

Betting strategy: 2.5 units WIN Bobsled, 0.5 units WIN Imagine Howe

Odds Last Updated: October 31, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

We have a $1.75 favourite here in the form of (1) Deep Speed who looks awfully hard to beat, and there is $2.00+ on Betfair available. He comes to Melbourne after winning on debut at Morphettville in Adelaide. He sat three-wide the trip on speed in that race but still proved too good. The horse he beat then went to Gawler and failed, so there is some query there, but there’s also a fair case to be made that Deep Speed would have beaten him by much more than he did with a better run in transit.

(3) Show Some Decorum ran 3^rd first up at Bendigo and the two horses that beat him then raced in the Listed William Crockett Stakes last week. He gets the tongue tie on for the first time and with the apprentice booked we should see him up on speed.

(2) Defence Force and (7) Redneck Princess next best.

Tip: (1) Deep Speed $2.04 Betfair

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Deep Speed

Odds Last Updated: October 31, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This is a really tough race. There’s a couple at big odds I’m going to spec here.

(8) Zoology did nothing first up at Kyneton but he’s never finished out of the top two when second up from a spell and he’s placed twice from three starts at Moonee Valley. With a suck run from barrier 2 he might outrun his odds of $34.

(17) Zougazem won on debut on the synthetic at Pakenham back in May. He started odds-on that day so clearly he has a bit of talent. He resumes tonight and from the good draw should run well.

(4) Pintoff has won two of his first three starts, with his failure two starts ago being when he sat three-wide the trip. That was behind the likes of Cambourne and Chica Fuerte which looks very good form for this. He draws barrier 1 so should box seat at the worst, which means he’ll need some luck, but he looks set to be very competitive here.

Finally, (15) Lodestar won well first up and can go well again at double figure odds.

Tricky race to play in but I’ll be backing Pintoff and specking Zoology and Lodestar.

Tip: (4) Pintoff $6.50 Palmerbet

Value: (8) Zoology $34 Bet365 & (15) Lodestar $16 Palmerbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Pintoff, 0.25 units WIN Zoology, 0.25 units WIN Lodestar

Odds Last Updated: October 31, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The staying race of the night isn’t a great one, but I’ve landed with the Maher/Eustace runner (8) Wahine Toa on top. She’s had two runs back from a spell and now gets up to 2500m third up from a spell. Jamie Kah is a positive jockey booking and this stable are always competitive in these staying races. The draw is tricky but I’ll stick with her.

(4) Vividredsky was terrific first up before a fair performance last start. He’s also third up tonight and draws well in barrier 3. Some concern over the fact P Preusker hasn’t had a winner here from 12 starters in the past 12 months.

(5) Brilliant Venture and (1) Alienated are others to include.

Tip: (8) Wahine Toa $3.80 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Wahine Toa

Odds Last Updated: January 23, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

The 955m dash looks a very competitive race. (2) Whipcracker Way has won all three starts this prep, all three coming at Moe. He’ll go forward from barrier 7 but it’s a tricky map with a bit of speed in the race. He drops back from 1200m to 955m which to me is a negative so at $2.20 he looks short enough in the market.

(3) Written Choice is also drawn a touch awkward but he looks set for this race first up. He went very close in a similar race to this first up last prep where he was cut down late by Bold Star. His overall record at the track and distance is good and if he can get across outside the leader, he’ll run a big race here at $8.50.

The other interesting runner first up is (9) Hard Rock Girl who has contested better races than this. She failed in her only start last prep but she’s trialled well ahead of her return tonight and she is a winner at this track and distance in the past. She should be very competitive if she returns somewhere near her best.

(4) Young Liam next best.

Tip: (3) Written Choice $9.50 Bet365

Also backing: (9) Hard Rock Girl $7.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Written Choice, 0.5 units WIN Hard Rock Girl

Odds Last Updated: December 19, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Another wide-open race. I’ll be playing three at decent prices here in the hope of an upset.

(10) Chevalier D’Eon has finished in the top two in four of her six starts when first up from a spell, including a win fresh last campaign. She’s likely to settle near the back of the field which never makes it easy here, but there does look to be a good tempo in the race so hopefully that allows for some to run on from the back. She’s a big price at $26.

(12) Chrome Angel has two wins from four starts so is only lightly-raced. She’s another that comes into this first up. Both wins have been at this distance. She gets the tongue tie on for the first time tonight and draws well in barrier 3. She’s an $11 chance.

(13) Salty Kisses is a $19 chance and she’s another that races fresh. She’s never missed a place from five starts when first up, including last prep when she was only 0.5L off Write Enuff, who raced well here first up and is half her price.

Chances aplenty here but a small bet on those three at odds.

Tip: (10) Chevalier D’Eon $26 Unibet

Also backing: (12) Chrome Angel $11.20 Sportsbetting & (13) Salty Kisses $19.20 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 0.25 units WIN Chevalier D’Eon, 0.25 units WIN Chrome Angel, 0.25 units WIN Salty Kisses

Odds Last Updated: October 31, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Terrible betting race. The favourite (12) Tatalina looks the obvious runner but she’s dropping back from two runs over 2250m and 2400m back to 2040m tonight. She draws well in barrier 3 but she’s failed as favourite at her past two starts and the drop in distance is a negative for mine.

I was impressed by the win of (7) Sir Edwin Landseer last start at Pakenham. He didn’t beat much and that was only a Class 1, but he’s got better with every run this prep and really exploded back to form last start. He bolted in by 3L and that was after sitting wide throughout. That was his fourth run back from a 76-week break, so clearly it’s just taken a few runs for him to get fit. Drawn awkward again tonight but there isn’t much to this race so with any luck he can go well at double figure odds.

(9) Humble Pie ran well at his first run in Australia and tends to improve second up, but Symon Wilde has had 24 runners without a winner here at The Valley in the past 12 months.

(2) Chuck A Luck will take some beating if they elect to lead with him.

Tip: (7) Sir Edwin Landseer $12 Bet365

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Sir Edwin Landseer

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

An impossible race to finish with. (2) Mellors has failed in two previous attempts at this track but he does have a fantastic third up record, with two wins and a 2^nd from three starts. He’s drawn well here and back onto a firm track could be the key for him. He appeals at $14.

(1) Desert Dreamer has had five weeks between runs. He’s previously struggled in this class but he should go forward from the gate and with the claim. He should be in the finish.

(11) Bacchus drops in grade back to a BM64 and this is a very winnable race if he were to be anywhere near his best form. I fear that’s not the case with him at the moment but this is the stable’s only runner of the night so be wary.

Tip: (2) Mellors E/W $14 Palmerbet

Betting strategy: 0.25/0.5 units WIN/PLACE Mellors