Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Saturday, August 21st

Odds Last Updated: August 21, 2021, 12:51pm (AEDT)

Tough opener but siding with (5) Widaad at odds. I liked her win on debut at Wangaratta, sitting on speed and kicking clear for a soft win. She’s jumped out well since and if she can get to the 1-1 she should be in the finish.

(4) Decent Raine absolutely bolted in at Echuca on a heavy 10 first up. Always wary because a very heavy track can flatter the margins but she was dominant.

(9) Zouzarella has jumped out very well and been smashed in early betting. Looks talented.

(1) Zapateo won nicely last start at this track but does get out to 1200m which is some query.

Tip: (5) Widaad- $8.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Widaad

Odds Last Updated: August 21, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

(1) Malicorne on top. I think she’s the best horse in the race and the weights reflect that. She bolted in at this T/D first up when leading all the way, and went on to run some very good races in stronger company, including two 2nds in group 2 and group 3 company. She’s trialled well and should be able to cross and lead or sit OSL.

(8) Sugartown is consistent but has had plenty of chances now and been beaten her last few. Maps well and gets down in the weights with blinkers on, so she gets her chance again.

(7) Belsielle beat Sugartown two back fair and square and did have excuses last start.

(6) Foxy Lady was poor first up but did get back. Likely gets a long way back again.

With Sugartown out I’m even keener Malicorne because she gets very little pressure on the map, so happy to up the stake.

Tip: (1) Malicorne- $4.20 at Topsport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Malicorne

Odds Last Updated: August 21, 2021, 2:06pm (AEDT)

(3) Corner Pocket can continue the winning streak. He’s just a bombproof horse- he jumps, lands on speed, gives a good kick and is generally too strong. He draws barrier 1, should lead, strikes another winnable race and looks the most likely winning chance on the day.

Reports are that (4) Front Page isn’t quite ready to go. He’s had a long time off with injury having only raced once in the last year, but at his best would be hard to beat.

(8) Rock Tycoon isn’t the worst. He ran 2nd to Imperial Lad at this T/D last start, looking to have the race before that horse kicked back. That horse since ran a very good 2nd to Elephant so the form is strong. He plummets in weight down to 51kg, likely sits 2nd in run and races well here.

(6) Ocular was good last week but I’m not sure The Valley is his track.

Good bet Corner Pocket, wouldn’t be shocked if we got a bit better price. Something 1×4 on Rock Tycoon, think he’s a big place chance down in the weights on speed.

Tip: (3) Corner Pocket- $2.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (8) Rock Tycoon- $19.00/4.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Corner Pocket, 0.25/1.25 units E/W Rock Tycoon

Odds Last Updated: August 21, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

(4) Chief Altony has the class but was poor last start on a good track. He might need a wetter track to show his best and will get back in the field.

(12) Smoke Bomb looks to get an uncontested lead which could be key. He has a dominant win at this T/D when the bias favoured him and will be hoping for similar conditions. His first start for the new stable was a decent win and he can progress.

(9) Petruchio is wearing thin but perhaps wasn’t suited by the heavy track. Can settle closer from barrier 3 and run well.

(11) Orleans Rock will be charging late.

Tip: (12) Smoke Bomb- $10.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Smoke Bomb

Odds Last Updated: August 21, 2021, 3:26pm (AEDT)

(9) Reflect The Stars can hopefully turn the stable’s awful recent record around. She looks set to peak here 4th up and gets a lot in her favour. She’s gone 1600-2000-2400 which is an ideal platform, and 4th up last prep she was a big run at Flemington, 0.2L off Tralee Rose in arguably a better run. Her run last start was good in a stronger race, she draws ideally, keeps Willo and at double figures she’s a bet.

(1) Smokin’ Romans got everything in his favour last start courtesy of a perfect J Kah ride. That was his first go at 2500m so he can improve again, but loses Kah and draws wide again so I’m inclined to risk.

Kah sticks with (4) Heir To The Throne who won well last start. She has a couple of lengths to make up on Smokin’ Romans from two back but wasn’t suited there.

(10) Rudhyar is progressive having won his last two at Geelong and Coleraine. Only had the 5 starts and whilst this is a big step up, he looks talented.

 

Tip: (9) Reflect The Stars- $11.00/3.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Reflect The Stars

Odds Last Updated: August 21, 2021, 4:06pm (AEDT)

Very tough. I’ve no doubt (4) Hilal is the best horse in this race after running 2nd to Anamoe in the Sires and a narrow 2nd in the Champagne to Captivant. 1200m around The Valley isn’t his go, but I do note how much early speed he’s shown in his two trials, whereas he had precious little gate speed last prep. He’ll likely still be in the 2nd half of the field, but I don’t think he’ll be last and there does look genuine speed. He might just be too good for these, but I will be playing late.

(1) Jigsaw won well first up but I thought he had his chance last start. He was back to 1000m and giving weight away, but I’m not sure 1200m suits him. He was found out in the Blue Diamond at 1200m and beat an average field first up with all favours. Gets in better at the weights here and blinkers on.

(8) Beldivian won well on debut in fast time. The first three cleared out from the rest and it looks a good form race. Maps just behind the speed and the speed ratings judges will back it.

(7) Frontman next best. Still a maiden but the 2nd to Lightsaber reads well.

Tip: (4) Hilal- $2.40 at Sportsbet

Value: (8) Beldivian- $15.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.75 units WIN Hilal, 0.25 units E/W Beldivian

Odds Last Updated: August 21, 2021, 4:41pm (AEDT)

(9) Heart Of Puissance is very progressive and ended last prep with a dominant win at Flemington. Kah sticks with him but the blinkers are off which is a query.

(3) Grand Promenade dominated the winter staying ranks, only going down to Realm Of Flowers in the Andrew Ramsden. Another of the Maher/Eustace brigade that’s had a decent break and is back in trip.

(6) High Emocean is the 3rd stablemate who hit the line well first up over 1600m. Map is tricky from barrier 2 but with luck she’ll be hard to hold out.

(10) Starcaster beat High Emocean home first up and does love The Valley. Kah sticks with Heart Of Puissance and Cartwright can’t claim below the minimum which is a knock, and he might be more effective at 2400m.

Too many unknows here. Maher/Eustace can keep them ticking over through breaks but with three legitimate chances all at different stages of their preps I’m staying out.

Tip: (3) Grand Promenade- $3.80 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: August 21, 2021, 5:16pm (AEDT)

Another very tough race with an abundance of speed. (10) Esta La Roca will either lead or sit 2nd, depending on whether he can hold out Ancestry. He’s a dead set 1000m horse who ran 2nd to Malkovich two back, before running 3rd, beaten 4.1L by Beau Rossa on a heavy track over 1050m last start. I think even 1050m sees him out, and a heavy track wasn’t ideal either. This is his ideal T/D and he can stick on well here.

(9) Miss Albania is an interesting one. She’s had two 1100m runs this prep, the latest showing a great burst of speed down the straight to win well. Drops back to 1000m and draws wide, so where she gets to will be interesting because I don’t think she’s as quick as a couple of these.

(1) Ancestry is the class, I’m just not sure where he’s at. He is unbeaten here but he was found out a bit last prep when taken on for the lead, which I think will happen here. He’s going to have to jump like a greyhound to cross and lead here.

(6) Ballistic Lover is another speedy horse drawn inside who likely ends up in the box seat. She’ll need luck from there but is a handy mare.

Tip: (10) Esta La Roca- $14.00/3.20 at TAB

Saver: (9) Miss Albania- $4.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Esta La Roca, 0.5 units WIN Miss Albania

Odds Last Updated: August 21, 2021, 5:47pm (AEDT)

(11) Degraves is clearly the horse to beat. His overseas form around Armory speaks for itself, and his win at Flemington was very good, laying in badly late and costing himself 2 lengths. Kah jumps aboard here from barrier 4 and with even luck I think he’ll be winning.

(2) Groundswell led and controlled the race last start, winning well. Interestingly Lane jumps off and he does draw wide.

(6) Sovereign Award is first up and Lane chooses to stick with her from last prep. She’s 4/5 at The Valley but did take a couple of runs to hit her stride last prep. If they want to lead, she should be able to.

(9) Shot Of Irish is going well but might need a wetter track.

Tip: (11) Degraves- $3.10 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Degraves