Moonee Valley Tips: Friday December 3rd

Racing continues at Moonee Valley tonight for a handy eight race card.

Trent Crebbin has done the form and his best bet comes up in Race 7.

The track is rated a good 4 and the rail is out 6 metres.

Best Bet- Race 7 (9) Savannah Cloud

Best Value- Race 3 (2) Ocean’s Thirteen

Race 1- Front Runner Membership (bm64) 1200m (6:15 AEDT)

(3) Lempicka looks the map bet. She should be able to settle right on speed from barrier 3 and she comes out of a nice metro bm64 behind Lady Of Honour who has won again since at Caulfield. Back to 1200m is no issue and her main dangers get back.

(7) Sistine Explorer might be a bet on a different track but she’s drawn barrier 2 and will need some luck. If she’s half a step slow and ends up buried, Allen will need to give her a very good ride.

(5) Controversial Miss brings completely different form but will likely lead and could be forgiven for last start, albeit in a race at Gundagai.

Tip: (3) Lempicka- $2.90 at Boombet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Lempicka

Race 2- The Rokon Civil Mdn Plate 1200m (6:45 AEDT)

(10) Indy Rose Warrior led and was just run down on the line first up at this T/D. If she can cross from the barrier she’ll take some running down again.

(4) Victory Bay looks to be a talented debutant. This isn’t a very strong maiden and he can run well.

(6) Endlessly was solid first up and gets blinkers on first time here, but the wide draw is a concern because she’s not super quick away.

Tip: (10) Indy Rose Warrior- $3.40 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Race 3- Ladbroke It (bm70) 1600m (7:15 AEDT)

Going to have something on (2) Ocean’s Thirteen here who was awful first up but has done that in the past and bounced out of it to run well at her next start. She was over 1300m last start which was too short anyway, and she should have residual fitness from last prep which wasn’t long ago. Last prep she was beaten 6.5L first up and then ran well, beaten 2.2L in a stronger race 2nd up. She’s 1/1 at this T/D, lands on speed from barrier 2 and can run well.

(1) Riotous Mischief is flying but gets back in the field from the gate. Two runs back she was too strong late for Mostly Sunny who she meets here again. Go back to last prep and Ocean’s Thirteen destroyed Mostly Sunny with 5kg more.

(3) Wanalirri was good late on the heavy 10 at Cranbourne but 1600m is some query and perhaps she was a touch flattered on the conditions there.

Decent bet 1×3 Ocean’s Thirteen, quite keen she runs a place.

Tip: (2) Ocean’s Thirteen- $9.00/2.90 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Ocean’s Thirteen, 1.5 units PLC Ocean’s Thirteen

Race 4- Tote Bar & Dining (bm78) 1200m (7:45 AEDT)

Keen to back two horses here. (4) Housay drawn barrier 1 terrifies me but the price is good enough to see if he can find some gaps. He was $3.80 first up in the grey’s race at Flemington and just peaked on his run late at 1400m. He’s had a jumpout in between and circled the field to truck beautifully into 3rd, and he should be peaking at 1200m here. If he’d drawn out I’d be keener but at the price he’s a bet.

(6) Ladies Of London can hopefully lead from barrier 3. She recaptured some form last start, leading and running 3rd to Duchess Of Dorset with Way To Go Paula in 2nd, who is the horse to beat at Pakenham on Saturday. Has to take on the boys here but the class drop offsets that and at double figures I want her on side.

(7) Sessions Road is a progressive horse who won 2 on the bounce to start last prep. He’ll be right there on speed.

(1) Exeter next best after a forgive run last start, his win at this T/D prior over The Gauch reads well. No real knocks on him.

Tip: (4) Housay- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (6) Ladies Of London- $15.00/3.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Housay, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Ladies Of London

Race 5- Ladbrokes 55sec Challenge (bm70) 955m (8:15 AEDT)

(3) Brownie was dominant winning here over 1000m last start, leading all the way and giving nothing else a chance. This is harder and she’ll cop more pressure, but she’ll be very hard to beat.

(2) Pravro bolted in first up last prep and typically races well over this course. He’s the blowout result at $21 if they overdo it up front.

(7) Passing Time won both her starts last prep and has plenty of early speed. She should be thereabouts.

Tip: (2) Pravro- $21.00/4.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Pravro

Race 6- Orbit Logistics (bm64) 1528m (8:45 AEDT)

Found this one of the tougher races of the night. (6) Stay Gold was strong through the line last start at 1400m and looks ready to tackle this trip. She does have the early speed to cross here but was ridden back last start so I’m not sure where she gets to.

(11) Soarhi ran on well at only his 2nd start at Sandown and looks well placed up in trip. He’s got obvious upside.

(1) Spanish Snitzel next best. He jumps up quickly in trip and it might be one too early but he was good first up as a gelding and took on some strong races last prep. He’s going to get back in the field.

Tip: (6) Stay Gold- $3.70 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Race 7- Seppelt Wines (bm64) 1200m (9:15 AEDT)

Have taken the early price about (9) Savannah Cloud but still think he’s the best of the night. He was first up off a gelding operation at Ballarat and whilst beaten 7L, it was by group 1 horse Marabi and he still beat home a very strong bm70 field littered with stakes class horses. His SP profile is very good and he ran well here last prep when not suited behind some good horses. With any luck from barrier 3 he’ll be winning.

(7) Reward With Return bolted in at Swan Hill last start. Gets back up to 1200m and we know his level is solid.

(4) Nicolini Vito has the talent to win this and has run on well all prep. He’ll need to run them down from the wide barrier again but has won here in good fashion.

Tip: (9) Savannah Cloud- $2.80 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Savannah Cloud

Race 8- Big Swing Golf (bm64) 2040m (9:45 AEDT)

Bit of a nothing race to end the night. (10) My Delight looks suited up in trip after working through the line well here over 1600m last start. She draws well.

(1) Running Cloud can cross from out wide and settle near the speed. His run at this T/D last start behind Rosseau reads well but he’ll need a good ride with 60kg.

(8) Lost Impact next best but he can mix his form a bit. He didn’t have much luck last start.

Tip: (1) Running Cloud- $3.90 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet