Mornington Racing Tips: Sunday, November 1st

Odds Last Updated: February 22, 2021, 2:23am (AEDT)

Looking at the first race on Peninsula Cup day we have a well-priced favourite in (12) Tan Tat Spirit. The Brazen Beau filly was pretty good first-up placing second after leading the entire way. She just faded at the end while there was one slightly better. Today she drops from the 1100 metre maiden to a 1000 metre maiden, a smart placement after her first run. Of course it’s difficult to know the quality she faced in her first race, but the same can be said about the other runners.

(1) Banjo Shark comes into this after a second place and could show that improvement needed to take out a maiden. Teodore Nugent is having a nice little run at the moment, so he should be flying high with confidence. (7) Strategist is performing better than his statistics suggest, so can’t exclude him from the exotics.

Tip: (12) Tan Tat Spirit $3.80 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: December 5, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

This was a process of elimination. There are many reasons why the bulk of these runners can’t win (or at least, look unlikely). The short priced favourite (2) Art Major has become a money-muncher, but he has been running well, placing five times over nine starts. His most impressive was arguably his last start where he ran second over a similar distance—missing by a head. That was at this track, and he would have taken some track experience from that. Blinks are on which might keep him focused on the prize.

(1) Able Warrior is the one most likely to be competing for the win. Landing two third places in his last couple of starts, he actually drops back slightly in grade here. If Art Major continues to find one better, it’ll be him. (4) Luna One has been disappointing, but can’t be entertained until he shows some improvement.

Tip: (2) Art Major $1.85 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The Irish import named (1) Kenya races in Australia for his second time. The first run was 148 days ago now, and despite kicking off over 1600 metres, he shouldn’t find the distance an issue. He has won once and placed twice (over four first-up starts). He was racing in Group 1 European company and has already won at Group 3 level in the UK. He should be really winning this bm90. While we have him on top, it is not a case of chips-in. He could be a touch suspect due to the unknowns, and the one that is most likely to threaten is (3) Miss Polanski. She was racing well when taking out a bm64 and bm70, but struggled at that higher grade, and yet this is another step-up.

The field of seven could prove tricky, and inadvertently bring one of the unlikelier runners into contention. (6) Springrolls ran third behind Cordilla, so at $9 she is not the worst if looking for value. Despite this, Kenya should be getting the job done here.

Tip: (1) Kenya $1.85 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Winning form is good form! And (2) Monumental Lady comes into this race after three consecutive wins at bm58 grade. She steps up slightly here, gets the claim, but draws a wide gate. We can expect a few scratchings that should bring her in. But it does pose a pretty big challenge when looking at the number of speed runners on her inside. One of whom (1) Kuzco Lad gets the inside gate, and you do not need to doubt that the Waterhouse runner will be maximising that gate to lead this affair. The Zoustar gelding has already raced and won in this grade, and once again he looks like a very probable winner.

Overall it is a pretty wide race, with (13) Mostly Sunny & (5) Tour Down Under with a good shot. The one at odds which may surprise is (8) Muleta who placed first-up and should now have some additional fitness. Michael Walker is on board, and we can expect him to swoop down the outside if the leaders burn each other out. Not knowing how the track will play, happy to take two options here—backing the one who can lead and win, and backing one who can take advantage if the leaders come right back to them.

Tip: (1) Kuzco Lad $3.20 Bet365

Also backing: (8) Muleta $11 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

\Plenty of leading chances in this race, which makes it difficult to have high confidence. (5) Hummalong has been at the top of our picks its last two races, where she won in bm64 grade only to then run second in a bm58. She steps back up in grade today, but finds some tougher company. She draws a middle gate, and we can expect her to be one or two pairs back due to the speed on her inside. (6) Miss Starway won last start and should only improve.

The leading selection is (2) Sophia’s Choice who looks to have a class edge on this field. She has been racing well in bm70 grade last preparation, and essentially drops back slightly here to get this preparation started. She has been pretty good first-up so we can expect that to continue. She seems to do her best work on Good going, so hopefully the rain stays away.

Tip: (2) Sophia’s Choice $3.80 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Looking for (3) Lunakorn to improve sharply here after a pretty ordinary first-up run. On that day there were excuses for her performance, but we could have hoped for some juicer odds second up. Unfortunately looks like the bookies have factored that in, and the offer is around $3.30 and second favourite. She generally goes okay second up, likes a Good track, and has raced in better company than she finds herself against today. She does naturally drop back to her limited starting speed, so we can expect her to fall in-behind the leaders, and wouldn’t be surprised to see Jye McNeil look for the rump of the favourite (6) Monsters Inc.

Monsters Inc gets a middle gate and can be in the leading couple. She continues to improve and can get another win, so there’s absolutely no knock. (1) Magnajet is the one at odds for the exotics.

Tip: (3) Lunakorn $3.30 TAB