Morphettville Racing Tips: Saturday, May 1st

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 12:17pm (AEDT)

Tricky 2yo race to open. (4) Translation walked in first up at Cranbourne and was just down late by Cloudy at this T/D last start. Will push forward from barrier 8 and gets Pike replacing Eaton. Not sure the form is particularly good, but this isn’t the strongest race.

 

(5) See You In Spring got an easy lead and kept kicking on debut at Cranbourne. It was on a different night to Translation, but the official track rating was the same, and See You In Spring ran a faster overall time but came home slower sectionally.

 

(9) Totally Discreet has jumped out well enough for her debut run and wouldn’t shock.

 

(1) Gulf Of Suez would win this off his old SA form and the 1000m Caulfield run but he’s been atrocious since then and looks a bit in the wilderness.

Tip: (4) Translation- $3.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 12:52pm (AEDT)

Clearly the horse to beat is (1) Lord Vladivostok despite being 7 weeks between runs. His win two back over 1800m was dominant and he then ran 3^rd, beaten 1.7L by Ironclad and Ritratto, which is excellent form. Anywhere near that wins this, but at $1.70 off a break and drawn wide, there’s potential to be against.

 

I can make a case for a couple of runners at odds, the first being (4) Hasta La War who was an early Adelaide Cup favourite last year before pulling up with an issue. He won 4 in a row and should’ve made it 5 in listed grade when checked. He’s had a long spell and I thought he ran okay first up over 1200m, working through the line well in the 2^nd fastest last 200m of the race. Jumps up to 1600m which suits, Opperman and his 3kg claim are airborne and his best form, even over 1600m is very comparable to the favourite.

 

At massive odds I can make a case for (11) Budget King who is a very interesting runner. A former NT galloper who has some big wins to his name, including a 7.5L win in the NT Derby. He’s changed stables since then and resumed on the dirt at Port Augusta as the $2.25 favourite but was a complete forgive, getting horribly checked twice and the race was over. This is a huge step up in class, but I find it interesting that Vorster has been booked, he draws barrier 1 and could try to lead and I think you could get bigger than the $61 available.

 

Favourite hard to beat but no value- Hasta La War and Budget King mainly the place to cause a huge upset. Total outlay of 3 units and only needing Hasta La War to place to turn profit on the race looks a good way to bet.

Tip: (4) Hasta La War- $7.00/1.90 at Sportsbet

Value: (11) Budget King- $61.00/9.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5/1.75 units E/W Hasta La War, 0.25/0.5 units E/W Budget King

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 1:27pm (AEDT)

Good race. (5) Pandemic has had no luck at his last two starts, one in Melbourne and one in Sydney, complete forgives in both. I like him with 4 weeks between runs and back to 1100m, which is his best distance. He met Sword Of Mercy down the straight over 1000m and was 0.4L off her, coming home in the fastest splits. He started $3 to her $6 on that occasion and does get a small 1.5kg weight swing, but he will get back and need to run her down.

 

(2) Sword Of Mercy is so consistent and I think 1100m is as far as she wants it. She was too good over 1000m two back over Sartorial Splendor and Alfa Oro, but had every chance against Sisstar and Lyre over 1100m last start and was a touch disappointing, with her last 200m the 2^nd slowest of the race. She has the advantage of being able to go forward and if she settles outside the lead in a dash home she’ll probably win.

 

(1) Viridine is the class and has to carry 60.5kg here. He beat Sword Of Mercy home when they met at Caulfield in a Rubiton and did start half her price, but she had absolutely no luck and there’s another 2.5kgs in the weights.

 

(6) Savatoxl next best, should lead.

 

Leaning towards Pandemic at 1100m with Pike and 54kg. He’s got the SP over Sword Of Mercy and is better suited at the trip, and shouldn’t have any traffic problems from barrier 9.

Tip: (5) Pandemic- $3.40 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Pandemic

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 2:02pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on Pikey going back-to-back with (2) Silent Sovereign. I had her as a horse to follow from last start where Holland took off early and made a move from the 800m and nearly pinched it, but Mohican Heights got a late gap and nailed her on the post. The winner has since run 2^nd to Amade in a strong race, and Yonkers came out of that race and bolted in at Caulfield. She goes up in the weights as a mare which is the knock, but I like barrier 6 and she did run a big closing 2^nd to Realm Of Flowers at this T/D in a fillies’ classic, so the trip suits, with the perfect grounding to peak here. Might get a better price given her SP profile and weight.

 

(5) Wyclif comes into this 4^th up and I don’t think he’s shown enough to be so short again here. They backed him strongly last start and he had every chance behind Independent Road and Grand Promenade with 52.5kg on his back, which does tie in the favourite through Mohican Heights. Probably goes back from barrier 9 and at $3.60 I don’t see any value there.

 

(6) Rebel Racer was going well before last start where he was beaten 10L by Silent Sovereign at $21. He meets her 4kg better but I don’t think he’s good enough.

 

(4) Aurora’s Symphony was 7 weeks between runs going into the Terang Cup and stuck on very well for 7^th in a very bunched finish. Some query at 2500m but she’ll go forward and gets Olly. She can be included at $9.50.

 

Keen on Silent Sovereign but I doubt she starts much shorter so I hope we see $3.50, and having something on Aurora’s Symphony.

Tip: (2) Silent Sovereign- $3.20 at Bet365

Also Backing: (4) Aurora’s Symphony- $9.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Silent Sovereign, 0.5 units WIN Aurora’s Symphony

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 2:37pm (AEDT)

I think #1 and #2 fight it out. Leaning the way of (1) In Good Health who was very good first up from back in the field and just went way too slowly sitting just off the leader last start in the Sunline Stakes. She was backed off the map that night but doesn’t have a turn of foot and when the backmarkers that do have acceleration are only 1-2L off her on the short turn, they’re going to run past her, as Quantum Mechanic did. That horse has since placed in a group 2 and a group 1, and 3^rd up last prep In Good Health did win a good race against the boys after rolling along out in front. Surely from barrier 1 Nolen is forced to kick up and hold the front from the ones coming across and uses her best asset.

 

(2) Fabric is the clear danger. Her last 1600m run was a 0.4L 2^nd to Sovereign Award, with Chaillot in 3^rd, Missile Mantra in 4^th and Paradee in 5^th. She did win 2^nd up last prep but that was going 1200m to 1400m, and now she goes 1200m to 1600m which is the query, although it is Danny O’Brien. Her best runs are when she can get right on speed, but I don’t see that happening here from barrier 8 and she might end up 3 wide or having to drop back.

 

(9) Shop Till I Drop was a good run first up off a very long break at this T/D, running on well for 2^nd. Has a bit to make up but has come back well.

 

If Nolen is aggressive and holds the front at a good tempo, In Good Health will be hard to beat.

Tip: (1) In Good Health- $4.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN In Good Health

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 3:17pm (AEDT)

At the prices I think (6) Litchfield County is over the odds. Three starts ago he beat Curran, who beat Winsum and All Of Brighton last start. Two starts ago he was badly held up in a very similar race, not really getting a good crack at them when 4^th, and last start in the main lead up he ran well up along the inside for 3^rd. Olly takes the ride and he draws out.

 

(8) Minhaaj is the horse to beat. She beat Litchfield County at Caulfield first up after getting a lovely run midfield, but was desperately unlucky here last start with nowhere to go. Gets 2.5kg off Litchfield County from their last meeting and 4.5kg from their Caulfield meeting where she beat him home and with even luck she’ll be in the finish.

 

(3) Ocean Beyond is unbeaten from two starts last prep and controlled the race outside the leader both times. This is harder but he’s progressive.

 

(2) Beau Rossa is tricky to line up, dropping back from 1600m to 1100m. I think back in trip probably helps but it’s not easy to do and he looks short enough at $4.

 

Following the Redelva as the main lead up and Minhaaj was the unlucky runner there who looks suited here, but Litchfield County did still beat her home and is a bigger price to place than she is to win.

Tip: (6) Litchfield County- $19.00/5.00 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (8) Minhaaj- $4.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75u E/W Litchfield County, 1 unit WIN Minhaaj

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 3:57pm (AEDT)

The first of the group 1 features for the day over 1200m for the girls. I was happy to be with (2) Mizzy who looks to get a dream run from barrier one. She’s been easily contesting the best quality races out of anything here this prep, running 11^th (beaten 2.9L) in an Oakleigh Plate with 55kg, then running a nose 2^nd to Savatiano, beating Masked Crusader in the Canterbury Stakes, before a 2^nd to Krone over 1500m in the group 1 Coolmore Classic with 58kg. She failed last start but that was in the George Ryder and she was still only 0.7L off subsequent group 1 winner Kolding. She’s had 5 weeks between runs which suits dropping back to 1200m, and her trial in between was outstanding when placed under no pressure. I think she box seats and if a gap opens up, she’s going to be right on the scene. The only thing keeping her price up is her SP profile and jockey, but Bayliss has ridden her beautifully all prep.

 

At odds I’m definitely including (7) Prophet’s Thumb who I thought was probably the run of the race in the Bel Esprit at Caulfield which a few of these come out of. She was a touch slow away and had to settle at the back from a wide gate. Her final 600/400m were the fastest of the day, and her final 200m was only 0.05 seconds off Lyre’s, who got a late gap. Ideally Newitt gets her out of the gates from barrier 2, because plenty of the backmarkers draw wide and if she can lob midfield in front of them I think she’s a good chance.

 

(1) Flit is perhaps the best performed horse in the race and I thought she went very well in the William Reid on a night you basically had to be on the fence to win. Her final 200m was 0.01 seconds off Masked Crusader from an impossible position, but she draws the carpark here and surely has to go right back which might put paid to her chances.

 

(15) Instant Celebrity looks short enough as favourite to me. She had some excuses first up with 58kg but ultimately had her chance in a weaker race. Willo replaces Crowther which helps but for all her hype she hasn’t beaten much- her best win was over Personal at 1400m, and that horse didn’t get warm until 2000m+.

 

Chances to (6) Brooklyn Hustle, (5) Lyre, (10) Humma Humma and (11) Rubisaki who should all finish strongly as well as (8) Sisstar who should lead but 1200m is the query with her.

 

Tip: (2) Mizzy- $8.00 at Unibet

Value: (7) Prophet’s Thumb- $26.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Mizzy, 0.25 units WIN Prophet’s Thumb

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 4:37pm (AEDT)

I think this is one of the better Australasian Oaks in a while and there are plenty of angles. (4) Hela is unbeaten over from Tasmania and that’s hard to knock. She’s settled in the top 2 in all 8 wins, and her longest SP in her career is $1.95. Her last 4 runs have resulted in an aggregate winning margin of 13.8L, and she’s started an average of $1.33 in those 4 runs. She destroyed Chequerboard at 2100m who ran well in the Adrian Knox, 2.7L off Flexible. I think Hela will shorten given her SP profile and very favourable map, and the $5.00 just looks a good price.

 

It was sick watching (13) Steinem in the lead up over 1800m- she drew the carpark and ended up last in a fairly strongly run race, spotting them about 15L on the turn and having to try and circle the big field. She absolutely looked the winner at the 200m mark but that huge run just took its toll the last 100m and she finished 0.7L away in 4^th, still running the race fastest last 200m. She was hammered in betting to start $1.60 there off a huge Sandown win prior, and the only query here is barrier 1. If she’d drawn midfield I’d probably launch her, but traffic issues are the concern. She did settle 5 of 8 over 1400m on debut from an inside gate so I expect she’ll end up 3, maybe 4 pairs back the fence here. If she gets luck, I think she wins.

 

(17) Americain Angel looks the roughie to include. The market loves this horse and she was heavily backed again last week to start $3.70 and it was an absolute horror show- she probably should’ve beaten Brookspire with any luck whatsoever, only seeing clear air at the 150m mark when the bird had well and truly flown. Draws beautifully in barrier 6, Lane jumps on and she’s the value.

 

(10) Flexible definitely a chance coming out of the Adrian Knox where she ran well for 3^rd behind Duais and Bargain, who ran 2^nd and 3^rd in the ATC Oaks behind Hungry Heart in a walking race. Pike should settle midfield, perhaps even covering up Steinem and she can win.

 

Pretty keen to make a book out of Hela, who I think starts favourite, Steinem, who could get out just a touch due to barrier one, and Americain Angel who I think will firm.

Tip: (4) Hela- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (13) Steinem- $4.40 at Unibet

Value: (17) Americain Angel- $17.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.25 units WIN Hela, 2.25 units WIN Steinem, 0.5 units WIN Americain Angel

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 5:12pm (AEDT)

Bit of a lacklustre finish to a good card. Landed with (16) Baraconi on top at double figures. All three runs this prep have been good- she was no match for Outlaws Revenge first up, with that horse having progressed nicely through the grades since, ran 3^rd to Beau Rossa 2^nd up and was caught wide around an awkward Oakbank track at $2.80 last start. Eaton jumps back on which is a positive jockey change and she’s not the worst.

 

(10) Euphoric Summer hasn’t won since her 2yo days which is a concern, but she was good and wide first up at Cranbourne. Did take on some strong races last prep and was hardly disgraced but needs another win.

 

(9) Our Deep Agenda generally goes okay first up and maps for a suck run from barrier 2.

 

(1) Star Status is the best horse in the race and did run on well for 3^rd in a stronger race at 1200m to start last prep, but he’s better over 1600-2000m and from barrier 1 he’ll probably be last on the fence with 61kg.

Tip: (16) Baraconi- $10.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet