Hawkesbury Racing Tips: Saturday, May 1st

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 11:52am (AEDT)

(1) Gleneagles made a good start on stable debut for David Payne, winning first up here at Hawkesbury in maiden grade over 1000m. He drew barrier 1 there and was slow away, settling at the back of the field before working home strongly over the top of his rivals. He draws 1 again here and stepping up in grade, he won’t want to be slow out of the gates. If he jumps with them, I think he’s good enough to win again but the jump from 1000m to 1400m is one I really don’t like, however his main two rivals also step up from 1100m to 1400m. The two horses that ran 2^nd and 3^rd behind him last start have since come out and won, so the form looks strong.

(2) Aslav also broke his maiden here at Hawkesbury on debut. That was over 1100m and now he steps up to 1400m. He is likely to settle ahead of Gleneagles in the run so he’ll have a headstart and is capable of holding off the favourite.

(4) Hoover Lucy ran 3^rd on debut over 1100m here at Hawkesbury. Likely to roll forward from barrier 5 and will take some catching. She comes out of a fast-run race.

Tip: (1) Gleneagles $2.70 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Gleneagles

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 12:27pm (AEDT)

(5) Archanna looks ready to win third up from a spell. She improved nicely from her first up run to her second up run, where she drew wide and came from back in the field to run 3^rd. She should have no issues returning to firm ground today and she won third up last preparation beating Nimalee, which is very decent form for a race like this. She should be hard to beat.

(6) Luvoir was a surprise winner first up here over 1300m in easier grade. That was his first win when first up from a spell, so he’s clearly returned in good order, and it was his second win from as many starts here at Hawkesbury. He won second up last prep so should improve, draws well to take up a forward position and looks a bet at $6.50.

(10) Ruby Tuesday bolted in here over this track and distance last start, where the change of tactics really played its part. She had settled at the back of the field in her first two runs back, mainly due to poor getaways, but she jumped to the front last start and proved much too good. Whether she leads this from barrier 8 is a query, but she’s clearly going well and has to be respected.

Tip: (6) Luvoir $4.60 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Luvoir

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 1:02pm (AEDT)

The Highway Handicap is always a nightmare, let alone when it’s at Hawkesbury. There’s one at $81 I’m going to make a case for here. (15) Vol Au Vent has had two runs back from a spell now. He finished 10^th first up and then finished midfield last start at Dubbo, beaten 2.8L. He’s never won from eight starts first or second up, but he has won third up before, which was last prep. He draws barrier 4 here which should give him a nice run midfield, and he drops back down in the weights to 54kg. At $81 he isn’t the worst bet.

(1) Golden Gorge should find this easier than the Wagga Town Plate Prelude he contested last start, where he was beaten 0.75L. He carries top weight of 61.5kg though, giving at least 4kg to every other horse in the race.

(9) Tipping Point was impressive first up at Orange, but it was a country-only maiden, so it’s hard to gauge what he beat.

(12) Charlton Park was also impressive first up, leading all the way to win by 3.2L. She produced a good run first up last prep too, but failed to go on with it, so the query is whether she can reproduce that.

(13) The Deepest Secret and (14) Sly Song are both from the Nick Olive stable in Canberra and both hold chances here at big odds.

Tip: (9) Tipping Point $6.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 1:37pm (AEDT)

Will be backing a few here.

(1) Luncies hit the line OK at his Australian debut at Canterbury. He settled in the back half of the field and was brought widest in the straight, which wasn’t the place to be. The first four horses across the line – and anything that made any ground – were on the inside part of the track. He might not have been a flashing light run, but he worked home well enough over an unsuitable distance in unsuitable ground. Mr Dependable won that race and then came out and won again, while Lina’s Hero ran 2^nd and then came out and won as well. Drawn 1 today, interesting to see where they get to in the run. He’s likely going to be best over 2000-2400m so this might still be short of his best, but he’s a good enough price to find out.

(11) Mr Gee was dreadful first up at Canterbury on the soft ground, but that was on the same day as Luncies where the inside was the place to be. That’s no real excuse for him though, he was simply awful and beaten 15L. That backed up a couple of ordinary trials, so the jury is certainly out as to whether he’s come back this prep. The blinkers go on for the first time today though, he drops to 53.5kg and draws well. Up in distance is another positive, as is the return to firm ground. At $13 I’ll have a nibble to find out where he’s at.

(12) Yangtze Rapids broke through for his first win last start, backing up two good runs this prep. He drops to 52kg today and should get a charmed run from barrier 3. He can go on with it and I’ll save on him at the $3.00.

Tip: (1) Luncies $6.00 Bet365

Value: (11) Mr Gee $13 Bet365

Saver: (12) Yangtze Rapids $3.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Luncies, 0.75 units WIN Yangtze Rapids, 0.5 units WIN Mr Gee

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

(12) Air To Air is entered in two races here at Hawkesbury, and this is the harder of the two options, but I think she can be competitive at double figure odds. I had her in the follow file from Randwick two weeks ago. Both her runs this prep have been good. She’s settled last in both of them and has worked home well to be beaten 2.7L and 2.2L. Her only career win came third up from a spell. She does draw better today in barrier 2, but her racing pattern sees her get back anyway so I don’t expect her position to change that much. She’s an each way chance though – her form is better than what it may read on paper.

(5) Athiri does look the horse to beat. She comes into this first up from a spell and has trialled really well here at Hawkesbury leading into today. She recorded four wins last preparation and was last seen running 0.1L 2^nd to subsequent Group 1 winner Krone. Draws barrier 1 for a beautiful run and should be right in the finish.

(8) Wandabaa continues to race well without winning. She actually finished a length ahead of Athiri when they met last preparation and she meets her better at the weights today from that meeting. With race fitness on her side, which could prove pivotal at 1300m, she looks a great chance of recording her first win of the prep.

(2) Sweet Deal drops back to a Group 3 after running in Group 2 and Group 1 company all prep. She was only beaten 0.9L last start. She’s never finished out of the top two from five starts at this distance and her only start at Hawkesbury was a win. Should be competitive.

Tip: (12) Air To Air $10/$3.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Air To Air

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 2:47pm (AEDT)

Will be backing three runners here in the Gold Rush.

(9) Blazing Miss resumes from a spell on the back of two trial wins. She has a good first up record, with two wins and two placings from five starts, including victory first up last campaign. Mark Newnham has an outstanding record at Hawkesbury, striking at about 30% this season alone. I concede the speed map looks a bit tricky as there’s plenty of pace in the race, but if she manages to get across without doing too much work, I think she can be very competitive at double figure odds.

(11) Embracer resumes from a spell as a gelding and has had two recent trials to get him ready, and the latest one of those was good. He does his best racing on firm ground so he should get conditions to suit here and he gets in with just 53kg as well. He’s the stable’s only runner for the day and I doubt they’d be bringing him here if he was no hope.

(2) Snitz is the third one I’ll be backing and he’s another who comes into this first up. On his best form, he’d be very competitive in this. He went off the boil last campaign but he’s looked good at the trials leading into today and the trainer is adamant he’s got him right this time in. He’s drawn terribly in 17 so I doubt they’d start him here if he was no hope. He can run a race at double figure odds.

(10) Inanup will relish a hot speed and can usually pull out a good run fresh.

Tip: (11) Embracer $6.00 Bet365

Also Backing: (9) Blazing Miss $10 TAB

Value: (2) Snitz $11 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Embracer, 0.5 units WIN Blazing Miss, 0.5 units WIN Snitz

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 3:27pm (AEDT)

(3) Ellsberg is my best bet of the day in the Hawkesbury Guineas and he’s sure to be popular with a lot of others on the back of his dominant firs tup win in the Listed South Pacific Stakes at Randwick. He jumped to the front and showed his rivals a clean pair of heels, scooting clear to win by 3L. If he can find the front again without copping too much pressure, he should be very hard to run down.

(1) Aim is the value in the race at double figures. There’s two versions of this horse – one is very ordinary and one is very good. He didn’t do much at all in the Arrowfield Sprint first up, but he also did nothing first up last prep before coming out and winning the Magic Millions 3YO Guineas in great style second up. Two of his three career wins have been second up from a spell, so I’m tipping the Snowden stable will have him cherry ripe for this. Two of the past five winners of this race have come out of the Arrowfield Sprint, so it’s a tactic that’s been used with success before.

(6) Exoboom started $1.60 first up here at Hawkesbury but just found Luvoir too good. He was utterly dominant in his final two starts last prep and I’m very respectful of that starting price first up. Every chance that was a blowout to have him peaking for this race.

Tip: (3) Ellsberg $2.10 Bet365

Value: (2) Aim $8.50 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Ellsberg, 1 unit WIN Aim

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 4:07pm (AEDT)

(7) Royal Celebration has returned in terrific order this prep. First up he had no luck at all, held up the entire straight, and he didn’t get much luck last start either, caught three-wide the trip. He still fought on to finish 3^rd, beaten 0.5L, so his run was enormous under the circumstances. He comes into this third up on the quick back-up and draws ideally in barrier 4. Jockey change today with Sam Clipperton taking over from Andrew Adkins and providing he handles the tough run from last week, he should be very hard to beat.

(1) Greysful Glamour probably finds the front and she’ll be hard to catch. She drops back in grade to a Group 3 today which is a big drop back in class from what she’s been running against in recent starts. Mark Newnham has an outstanding record here at Hawkesbury so she is set to be very competitive.

(2) Archedemus is a hard horse to catch but it was at this stage last prep that he found form, and it was also over this track and distance.

Tip: (7) Royal Celebration $3.05 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Royal Celebration

Odds Last Updated: May 1, 2021, 4:47pm (AEDT)

(6) Grande Rumore’s win first up was exceptional. That was his first start in Australia and he looked to be struggling at about the 200m before surging late to get up in the final stride. It’s not easy to win like he did at Canterbury, so I thought there was plenty of merit to the win. He should come on from that and with the soft draw, he can win again. Worth noting that Kris Lees has had eight winners from 17 starters at Hawkesbury this season.

(17) Air To Air is entered in the Group 3 earlier on the card and is third emergency here. Obviously if she gains a run here she’s going t be very hard to beat given I’ve got her on top in the harder race.

(8) Vitesse normally takes a run to come good but no surprise to see her show up here on firm ground with Nash on board.

Tip: (6) Grande Rumore $2.90 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Grande Rumore