Muswellbrook Racing Tips: Monday, January 18th

Odds Last Updated: January 19, 2021, 7:42am (AEDT)

I thought the run of (12) Jericho Beach first-up was credible at Taree. The daughter of Vancouver showed enough to me that she had strengthened up from her first preparation by sitting in the lead and fighting to the line late in a gallant effort. She was a bit wayward in the straight which may have cost her in the end, but she will come on nicely from that run. She gets a good strong senior jock in Shaun Guymer aboard and I am very keen to see her back on top of the ground. The query is the gate, but she will roll forward and be in a handy position no doubt. I think she is a nice price to have a bet.

Tip: (12) Jericho Beach $5.10 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Jericho Beach B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: January 19, 2021, 7:42am (AEDT)

I loved the way this girl savaged the line first-up at Orange and I think she is going to be in a prime position to do it again. (1) You Rang was a drifting favourite at Orange and didn’t make things easy for herself in the straight, laying in around the 200m mark. Glenn Haven have brought her up for this maiden race and I don’t think they think they will be heading home empty handed. I like the addition of Christian Reith in the saddle and from a nice draw, I won’t at all be surprised to see them hold the fence and wait for the cutaway. She is a deserved favourite in this race and I expect her to get the chocolates.

Tip: (1) You Rang $1.82 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN You Rang B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: January 19, 2021, 7:42am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: January 19, 2021, 7:42am (AEDT)

I think this is a wide-open maiden race and the first time in his preparation that I won’t be with the favourite (10) Still In Fashion. Instead, I have backed a horse who was luckless last start at Wyong, running 4.6 lengths back in sixth behind provincial class runner That’s Better. (13) Mopitts was slow to begin from the awkward barrier before trying to dodge through runners and find gaps in the straight, only to be caught on the heels of others and held-up between the 100m – 50m mark. The horse he was following who also had to shift to get clear was French Bonnet, who ran third on the day before smashing her opposition in a Saturday Provincial race at Newcastle. I like the fact it will be a good track and that she steps up to 1450m, thought the freshen up does put a little doubt in my head, especially going from 1000m to 1450m second-up. I think her draw is fine as she is looks a versatile mare and after hitting the line nicely last start, she does look over the odds in a race that any of them could win.

Tip: (13) Mopitts $15.20 Sportsbetting E/W

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Mopitts B3TSP, 1 unit PLACE Mopitts Middle Tote

Odds Last Updated: January 19, 2021, 7:42am (AEDT)

This is a good little race for a class 1, and I have sided with the David Pfieffer trained (2) Crazy Train following a decent run at Orange. The Bull Point filly got well back with the race favourite Solva and they both come with a big run up the outside with the favourite saluting by less than a length. Our girl was good in defeat and beat the rest of the field on the day by 1.3 lengths, which gives me confidence for this one. Before that she ran well at big odds at Goulburn over the 1400m, where she finished third by less than a length and again beating home the rest of the field nicely. She is back up to 1480m here, with Collett remaining on her and she is drawn to get a nice suck run in behind the leaders, should they choose to do so. She does have to carry weight against the older horses, but that is a credit to her ability.

Tip: (2) Crazy Train $5.60 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Crazy Train B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: January 19, 2021, 7:42am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

We are going to try and finish big here with a solid bet on a horse who is big overs. (12) She’s Independent is coming off two runs against much better opposition, on tracks that aren’t suited to her in my opinion. Last start at Taree was on the heavy going in the Harrington Cup, which was her highest-grade race to date in terms of benchmarks and she finished 5 lengths back in ninth. Before that at Newcastle, she was well held in a Summer Provincial heat which was won by the eventual winner of the series Itz Lily. Coming back from a benchmark 66 to 58 over 1280m which is ideal and back on top of the ground suits her well. One thing that drew me to her also is the addition of Aaron Bullock and I will be disappointed if he doesn’t end up riding here today. Either way, she is massive overs in my books and I wouldn’t be leaving her out of your exotics and quaddies.

Tip: (12) She’s Independent $20.00 Sportsbet E/W

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN She’s Independent B3TSP, 1.5 units PLACE She’s Independent Middle Tote

Odds Last Updated: January 19, 2021, 7:42am (AEDT)