Newcastle Racing Tips: Monday, March 28th

Odds Last Updated: March 28, 2022, 2:19pm (AEDT)

I’d be surprised if the winner came outside of (7) Rustic Steel and (8) Taksu here. I had Taksu on top at Rosehill but with the meeting moved to Newcastle, Rustic Steel now looks the one to beat. He bumped into Maotai first up and then bolted in to win the Provincial Midway Championships heat here at Newcastle last start. Bowman sticks from a good draw and he obviously goes well on wet ground.

Taksu bumped into Gravina first up and then belted his opposition last start at Rosehill over 1350m. The 1400m will be no issue and he’s another that relishes the wet ground. Draws the inside so expect him to jump and run once again.

Tip: (7) Rustic Steel $2.60 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Rustic Steel

Odds Last Updated: March 28, 2022, 2:54pm (AEDT)

Having something on the two Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman runners here, which make the journey over from New Zealand. This stable have a good record in this race, bringing runners over after competing in the New Zealand Derby.

(1) Regal Lion ran 3^rd in the Derby three weeks ago and drops back to the 2000m of the Tulloch. Heavy ground a slight query but has won on soft previously. Need a good ride from Nash Rawiller from the wide gate.

(2) White Noise ran 7^th in the Derby and 4^th in the Guineas prior to that. He started an $11 chance in the Derby whereas his stablemate started huge odds. Has two wins on soft ground and gets Jamie Kah on from a good draw. As mentioned, the stable have had success doing this in the past, winning this race with Quick Thinker and Jon Snow who had the same lead ups.

Something small on both at each way odds.

Tip: (2) White Noise $9.00 TopSport

Value: (1) Regal Lion $21 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN White Noise, 0.25 units WIN Regal Lion

Odds Last Updated: March 28, 2022, 3:29pm (AEDT)

The improving track does help a few of these but I’m going to stick with the Coolmore Classic as the form line to follow here. I was keen on (5) Expat that day and I’ll stick with her back to Group 2 company today. She’s got a terrific record on rain-affected ground and if she can find the front and get a soft sectional she may prove hard to beat at each way odds.

(4) Vangelic also comes through the Coolmore and she’s now third up from a spell. There’s no doubt she needs to improve to win but I wouldn’t put it past this stable to be able to have her back to her best here. She’s big odds.

(3) Nimalee won this race last year and was sound first up in the Newcastle Newmarket. Has a good second up record and has never missed the top two from four starts at the distance.

(7) Annavisto bolted in first up in Melbourne in the Tressady Stakes. I queried her on a heavy track as she’d never faced it before but the Soft 7 today will be right up her alley given she has four wins on this surface.

(10) Promise of Success is knocking on the door.

Tip: (5) Expat $9.00 Moneyball

Value: (4) Vangelic $23 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Expat, 0.25 units WIN Vangelic

Odds Last Updated: March 28, 2022, 4:04pm (AEDT)

I had basically declared (5) Imaging as an each way certainty at Rosehill on Saturday, but he suffered an abrasion on his hip leaving the course. He’s been passed fit to start today but that does plant the smallest bit of concern in my brain, and the price today is slightly lower than he was on Saturday. I did really think he was a super each way bet here at $5. We’ve seen Chris Waller win this race with Mister Sea Wolf first up before, coincidentally in the same colours as Imaging, and he’s followed a very similar path here this time around. This horse has always showed plenty of ability – he was luckless first up in a G1 Orr Stakes. Has a good fresh record and goes well in rain-affect conditions. Think he’s a bet.

(11) Our Playboy was sound first up at Flemington and loves wet ground. That’s the key to him so given he ran well first up on firm ground, suggests he’s returned in good order. Gets in with no weight.

(14) Mr Mozart won the Phar Lap Stakes last start and tackles this as a three-year-old. Have to go back to 2004 to find the last three-year-old to win this race!

Tip: (5) Imaging $5.00/$1.85 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN, 3 units PLACE Imaging

Odds Last Updated: March 28, 2022, 4:40pm (AEDT)

The G1 Tancred Stakes.

The change to Newcastle and subsequently this race being run on a soft track rather than a heavy track has changed the outlook significantly.

The top three in betting all come through the G1 Australian Cup at Flemington last start.

(2) Spanish Mission led them up on that occasion and plenty was made of JMac going too fast in front, which set the race up for those coming from back in the field. He’s primed now third up and stepping up to 2400m. Think he can turn the tables on the two that beat him home last start.

(11) Duais was the winner of the Australian Cup and she had never placed on heavy ground from three attempts, so you’d have to think she’s much better suited with the improving track. She is obviously hard to beat on her last-start win.

(1) Think It Over is another big winner with the soft track conditions. He simply doesn’t go as god on heavy ground, he’s never run a place from four goes on it. You would think Duais probably has him covered on their last start efforts but he’s drawn well and you can never really count him out.

(7) Sheraz is definitely one to include at $31. He’s been good in two starts back from a spell and is ready to strike now third up. He’s got good form on wet ground and he’s only ever won beyond 2200m – he reaches the right trip at the right time now.

(10) She’s Ideel back on wet ground another that can improve sharply on her showing in the Australian Cup.

Tip: (2) Spanish Mission $5.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Spanish Mission

Odds Last Updated: March 28, 2022, 5:24pm (AEDT)

The Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes.

Plenty of different angles to consider here and I’ll be opposing the current favourite which is (2) Hinged.

Backing her two stablemates instead, those being (4) Fangirl and (7) Pretty Amazing. Fangirl went around $1.75 in the Phar Lap Stakes last start and failed. The jury is well and truly out for her but Chris Waller wouldn’t be running her here if he wasn’t confident she could turn it around. Respect her last start SP – that race has proven a good lead up for this in year’s gone by.

Pretty Amazing has three wins from four career starts after another impressive display in the G3 Kembla Grange Classic, run at Goulburn last start. That’s another race that has proven a good reference leading into this race and JMac takes the ride. She gets through the ground and looks a good price.

The Queenslander (6) Gypsy Goddess is a terrifying prospect, undefeated from five starts. Hard to know how that form will line up here as this is a very steep rise in class, but she can hardly have been more impressive to date.

(3) Never Been Kissed can be included.

Tip: (4) Fangirl $7.00 TAB

Also Backing: (7) Pretty Amazing $9.00 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN fangirl, 0.5 units WIN Pretty Amazing

Odds Last Updated: March 28, 2022, 5:55pm (AEDT)

A race I’m more than happy to stay out of, this one.

(18) Maotai resumed with a good win at Randwick and the form has been franked through Rustic Steel. His recent trial here at Rosehill was unbelievable. He’ll jump to the front and prove awfully hard to run down.

(13) Gravina won well first up, beating Taksu who then won its next start. Gravina then bumped into Shelby SixtySix who came out and won a Group 1 last weekend, so the form obviously looks very strong. Loves wet ground this horse so has to go close.

(1) Splintex ran last first up but that four-horse field contained Eduardo, Shelby Sixtysix and Nature Strip.

Tip: (18) Maotai $3.00 Moneyball

Betting Strategy: No bet