Racing Tips

Pakenham Racing Tips: Thursday January 21st

Twilight racing at Pakenham for those looking to get an early start to the weekend. The Horse has taken a look at the card to find a few winners.

by
The Horse
20 January 2021

Twilight racing at Pakenham for those looking to get an early start to the weekend. The Horse has taken a look at the card to find a few winners. He has profiled Race 2, Race 3, Race 4, Race 5 and Race 8.

Race 1

Red Gem Packers & Growers Mdn (1000m)
6:00pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Red Gem Packers & Growers Mdn (1000m) 6:00pm (AEDT)
1. Bay Wave (6) J: Arron Lynch (59.5kg) T: Andrew Homann	18	21	21.5	23
2. Bolocco Bob (2) J: Ms Emily Brown (59.5kg) T: R K Beecroft	7	7.5	7.5	7
3. Hassett (7) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: Brian Mcgrath	2.5	2.7	2.65	2.7
4. Headquarters (8) J: Liam Riordan (58kg) T: Ms M Wells
5. Hell Of A Boy (4) J: Jamie Mott (58kg) T: Jerome Hunter	26	26	24.5	21
6. The Trance Factor (1) J: Michael Dee (57.5kg) T: E V Musgrove	81	81	83	71
7. Avenue Of Pleasure (3) J: Jordan Childs (56kg) T: G M Begg	3.4	3	3.3	2.9
8. Halvoya (5) J: Damian Lane (56kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	4.4	4.4	4	4.6

Odds Last Updated: January 22, 2021, 12:41pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Watch Live On Sportsbet Mdn (1200m)
6:30pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Watch Live On Sportsbet Mdn (1200m) 6:30pm (AEDT)
1. Colossal Star (3) J: Brian Higgins (59.5kg) T: J W Bridgman	11	12	12	11
2. Dunvegan (5) J: Damian Lane (59.5kg) T: M M Laurie	1.14	1.14	1.12	1.15
3. Lochend Rocky Roy (8) J: Dean Holland (59.5kg) T: Paul Worthington	151	151	261	151
4. Prince Heartford (7) J: Clayton Douglas (59.5kg) T: M Croston & G Gilmour	81	101	131	126
5. Free To Act (9) J: Arron Lynch (58kg) T: N J Harnett	67	101	101	101
6. Gusto Magic (11) J: Jamie Mott (58kg) T: Jerome Hunter
7. Hoiana Shores (1) J: Patrick Moloney (58kg) T: C W Little	17	20	17	19
8. Old Fashioned (4) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: Brian Mcgrath	41	51	53	41
9. Likiliku (2) J: Zac Spain (57.5kg) T: E V Musgrove	35	34	57	31
10. Elidi (10) J: Ms Alexandra Bryan (56kg) T: P Stokes	21	20	21	19
11. Olivia's Game (6) J: Jordan Childs (56kg) T: G M Begg	34	21	36	23

Odds Last Updated: February 19, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

(2) Dunvegan looks ready to win after a two solid second places. He finds a very winnable race after competing in what looks a weaker race than that he comes out of. Unfortunately, the price is under the odds and really unbackable at this point. Still goes on top. The competition is thin, and it’s difficult to assess the rest. The top pick is one for the multiples.

Tip: (2) Dunvegan $1.35 Unibet

Race 3

Tasmanian M. M. Voucher Mdn (1400m)
7:00pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Tasmanian M. M. Voucher Mdn (1400m) 7:00pm (AEDT)
1. Every Hanza Winner (7) J: Will Gordon (59.5kg) T: Darryl Horner	151	151	281	151
2. The Duke Of Hazard (6) J: Damien Thornton (59.5kg) T: D R Brideoake	11	10	11.2	9
3. Victory Colours (8) J: Michael Walker (59.5kg) T: Ms L Shand	8	8	8	7.5
4. Anthemic (10) J: Fred W Kersley (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	11	10	9.8	11
5. Mariinsky (3) J: Dean Holland (58kg) T: A & S Freedman	10	12	9	12
6. Techno Awards (2) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: K & K Keys	81	101	121	101
7. Disco Queen (12) J: Lachlan King (57.5kg) T: L & T Corstens
8. Fuzz Buzz (11) J: Billy Egan (57.5kg) T: Luke Oliver	2.6	2.7	2.8	2.8
9. Northern Reign (14) J: Damian Lane (57.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	4.8	5	4.7	4.6
10. Speed Cube (4) J: Matthew Cartwright (57.5kg) T: Ms J E Taylor	46	51	59	61
11. Bella Cavalla (9) J: Jordan Childs (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	21	26	21.5	23
12. Share The Rhythm (13) J: Michael Dee (56kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	9.5	8.5	9.1	8.5
13. Scrambler (5) J: Arron Lynch (59.5kg) T: K L Corstens	101	101	131	126
14. Vinrose (1) J: Patrick Moloney (57.5kg) T: Peter Gelagotis

Odds Last Updated: January 22, 2021, 12:41pm (AEDT)

Hard not to be interested in backing the Luke Oliver runner (8) Fuzz Buzz after a couple of decent runs at Cranbourne. Two starts for two third places, she was well and truly beaten in her last start, although she did close off nicely from eighth in running. She will get-back and reel them in, so the additional 200 metres tonight is a positive. The gate is not the best, but it should not interfere with her race map.

Outside the Fuzz Buzz (9) Northern Reign can improve, and (12) Share The Rhythm can bounce back.

Tip: (8) Fuzz Buzz $3.15 Sportsbet

Race 4

Obrien Real Estate Mdn Plate (1600m)
7:30pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Obrien Real Estate Mdn Plate (1600m) 7:30pm (AEDT)
1. Cracking Night (7) J: Zac Spain (58kg) T: S P Nichols	21	26	24	21
2. Fool's Overture (6) J: Ben Allen (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	41	67	51	51
3. Metung Marvin (1) J: Brian Higgins (58kg) T: Ms C Alderson	61	61	87	51
4. Overruled (3) J: Damian Lane (58kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra	7	7.5	6.4	7
5. The Admiral (5) J: Fred W Kersley (58kg) T: M D Moroney	11	11	11	9.5
6. All Day Chardonnay (8) J: Lachlan King (56kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	101	101	181	126
7. Butter Chicken (9) J: Jordan Childs (56kg) T: G M Begg	2.45	2.35	2.5	2.4
8. Kalliopi Poppy (2) J: Jason Benbow (56kg) T: Jackson Pallot
9. Queen Adele (4) J: Michael Walker (56kg) T: Ms C Alderson
10. Russian Blaze (12) J: Patrick Moloney (56kg) T: Matthew Lindsay	126	151	201	151
11. So You Assume (13) J: Liam Riordan (56kg) T: S P Nichols	16	18	17.6	16
12. Write The Score (10) J: Michael Dee (56kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	2.6	2.5	2.55	2.7
13. Jem Jem (11) J: Damien Thornton (56kg) T: T Rogers

Odds Last Updated: January 22, 2021, 12:41pm (AEDT)

Pretty interested in (technically) taking on the favourite (7) Butter Chicken despite a close 0.1 length defeat in her first race start. There is no doubt she has every chance here, and the slight jump in distance with her assumed increased fitness, is a positive. The Price/Kent runner (12) Write The Score continues to improve each run, and last time she closed stylishly to arrive second behind Liquero at Mornington. She draws one gate outside the favourite and has the pace to cut across and sit off-the-pace.

For those not wanting to exclude the favourite, a quinella may be the smart play – as the race looks really between the top two.

Tip: (12) Write The Score $3.00 Sportsbet

Also backing: Quinella (12) Write The Score & (7) Butter Chicken

Race 5

Iron Jack Australian Lagers-C1 (1600m)
8:00pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Iron Jack Australian Lagers-C1 (1600m) 8:00pm (AEDT)
1. Biggus (6) J: Billy Egan (59.5kg) T: Patrick Payne	3.5	3.5	3.6	3.4
2. Crafty Effort (4) J: Brian Park (58.5kg) T: M Croston & G Gilmour	27	31	32	26
3. Hostile Takeover (9) J: Rhys Mcleod (58.5kg) T: John Eady
4. Warlist (2) J: Michael Carson (58.5kg) T: G M Carson	35	51	63	31
5. Shame Shame Shame (8) J: Damien Thornton (57.5kg) T: A & S Freedman	12	13	12	11
6. Gracias Amigo (10) J: Jordan Childs (57kg) T: G M Begg	15	18	13.4	16
7. Maui (11) J: Ben Allen (57kg) T: P Stokes	2.05	2.1	1.98	2.15
8. Pepper's Ghost (1) J: Damian Lane (57kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra	5	5.5	5.5	5
9. Victory Approach (5) J: Ms Michelle Payne (56kg) T: Michelle Payne
10. Isola Comacina (3) J: Michael Walker (55kg) T: Andrew Noblet
11. Chloe's Day (7) J: Unknown (55kg) T: P G Carey

Odds Last Updated: January 22, 2021, 12:41pm (AEDT)

It took (8) Pepper’s Ghost 6 starts to register the maiden win, but there is nothing to suggest that the gelding can’t win again. He registered that win comfortably by over a length. The inside draw will allow Damian Lane to drop in behind the leader (one back along the inside) and present at the right time. Pepper’s Ghost was a slightly more convincing win, in my view, than that of the race favourite (1) Biggus who ran on to claim victory first up. But there is very little between them, so the Damian Lane factor is enough to swing the decision.

Tip: (8) Pepper’s Ghost $4.05 Sportsbetting

Race 6

Gg Engineering (Bm64) (1600m)
8:30pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Gg Engineering (Bm64) (1600m) 8:30pm (AEDT)
1. Rocking Eagle (7) J: Jordan Childs (61kg) T: M D Moroney	15	15	13.8	15
2. Deelbraka (12) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (60kg) T: David & Coral Feek
3. The Great One (3) J: Jamie Mott (60kg) T: Peter Gelagotis	6	5	5.9	6
4. El Guerrouj (4) J: Michael Walker (59.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	7	7	6.6	6
5. Lucques (6) J: Will Gordon (59kg) T: E V Musgrove	201	151	261	151
6. Big Darryl (5) J: Arron Lynch (58.5kg) T: Andrew Homann	27	34	29	34
7. Black Beau Tie (10) J: Jake Noonan (58.5kg) T: G F Wheeler	15	19	13.8	16
8. Ameliaranne (1) J: Matthew Cartwright (58kg) T: N J Harnett	7.5	7.5	7.4	7
9. Regal Riffle (8) J: Michael Dee (58kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	16	17	16.8	17
10. Youl Dash For Cash (11) J: Lachlan King (58kg) T: E V Musgrove	151	151	261	151
11. Leveraged (9) J: Billy Egan (57.5kg) T: Luke Oliver	2.45	2.4	2.55	2.5
12. Queen Of Tarts (2) J: Damian Lane (57.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra	11	12	11.6	12

Odds Last Updated: January 22, 2021, 12:41pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Evergreen Turf (Bm64) (1400m)
9:00pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Evergreen Turf (Bm64) (1400m) 9:00pm (AEDT)
1. Rossman (8) J: Ben Allen (61kg) T: D R Brideoake	31	41	31	34
2. Blue Ocean (9) J: Jamie Mott (60.5kg) T: P Stokes	12	13	12	12
3. Gina Lola (12) J: Damian Lane (60kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	5.5	5.5	5.4	5.5
4. Office Jim (10) J: Dean Holland (60kg) T: A & S Freedman	7	6	6.6	5.5
5. He's A Balter (11) J: Jordan Childs (59kg) T: Peter Gelagotis	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.6
6. Big Sur (2) J: Patrick Moloney (58.5kg) T: C W Little	71	101	101	126
7. Honour Me (4) J: Zac Spain (58.5kg) T: G Eurell	71	101	101	126
8. Maazle (5) J: Arron Lynch (58.5kg) T: Andrew Homann	17	19	17.4	19
9. Trench Warfare (3) J: Fred W Kersley (58.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani	7.5	8	6.9	8
10. No New Tricks (7) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: B & J Purcell
11. Reactor (6) J: Jason Benbow (58kg) T: Mark Sues	51	71	73	71
12. Moeen (1) J: Luke Nolen (57.5kg) T: P Stokes	8.5	7.5	9.1	7.5

Odds Last Updated: January 22, 2021, 12:41pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Sportsbet Same Race Multi-Bm64 (1200m)
9:30pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Sportsbet Same Race Multi-Bm64 (1200m) 9:30pm (AEDT)
1. Falls (8) J: Ms Alexandra Bryan (63kg) T: M C Kent	12	14	12.2	13
2. Sophia's Choice (14) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (62kg) T: Robert Kingston	8.5	8.5	8.6	7.5
3. Magnetism (2) J: Jamie Mott (61.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	20	14	21	15
4. Irish Butterfly (12) J: Damien Thornton (60.5kg) T: Henry Dwyer
5. Milord (9) J: Clayton Douglas (60.5kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold	61	81	83	81
6. Burning The Clock (7) J: Neil Farley (60kg) T: Mark Dennehy	14	16	15.2	15
7. Ping Ping (11) J: Ms Sally Wynne (59.5kg) T: Sally Wynne	26	31	26.5	23
8. Gottaluvjimmy (3) J: Rhys Mcleod (59kg) T: Mark Pegus
9. Mosscon (1) J: Beau Mertens (57kg) T: D R Brideoake	8	8.5	7.6	8
10. Brazen Princess (13) J: Jake Noonan (56.5kg) T: J & C Meagher	21	21	21.5	21
11. She's 'N' Effort (4) J: Michael Poy (56kg) T: G Eurell	41	34	55	31
12. Safe Passage (5) J: Damian Lane (55kg) T: D T O'brien	2	2	1.96	2.1
13. My Prince Charming (10) J: Arron Lynch (57.5kg) T: Andrew Homann	9	11	9.3	10
14. Mischievous Lad (6) J: Jason Benbow (56.5kg) T: G B Andrews

Odds Last Updated: February 19, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

The best bet on the program is not favourite and is offering more than any of my other selections. (2) Sophia’s Choice. She has already tasted success at this grade, and has been racing in much tougher company around the metro tracks. She placed second last start at Mornington and drops back in grade, but carries the same weight after a nice little claim of 3kgs. The jockey booking is a query, and hope that it represents the importance of a claim, rather than a ‘trial’. But when you consider how close she went last start, the stable must believe she is ready to win.

(9) Mosscon continues to improve while (7) Ping Ping can run well at good odds. (13) My Prince Charming looks like he could be ready to fire.

Tip: (2) Sophia’s Choice $6.10 Sportsbetting

The Horse

The Horse found the thought of placing bets and drinking beers much more appealing once he was married, and that led to an interest in the many intricacies of The Great Game. He enjoys the challenge of predicting what will happen in any given race, but also loves horses themselves, none more so than the mighty mudlark Jungle Edge. His focus lies on metropolitan racing in Victoria and NSW, however isn’t afraid to find one out wide. Away from racing, The Horse is an avid drummer – quite a difficult task with a set of hooves.