Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, April 17th

Happy to stay out of the first in what looks a tough betting race to be confident in. Four of the seven runners are yet to win a race and with a few different form lines to consider, it’s not worth getting involved in this early in the day.

Betting Strategy: No bet

Pretty keen on (8) Ellsberg here. He’s had five races for two wins and three placings, which includes running 3rd in the Spring Stakes at Newcastle before bolting in by more than four lengths at Rosehill. First up over 1400m today with two trials under the belt and this looks a winnable race.

(11) Rainbow Connection is the value at $7.50. He bolted in on debut at the midweeks before finishing off solidly behind the very impressive Salina Dreaming last start. Drawn a bit awkward but can measure up here.

Tip: (8) Ellsberg $3.20 Ladbrokes

Value: (11) Rainbow Connection $7.50 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Ellsberg, 0.5 units WIN Rainbow Connection

At set weights, (1) Pandano looks very hard to beat here. He comes into this on the back of dominant wins here at Randwick and then Newcastle, where he took out the Provincial Championships Qualifier easily. Draws well, JMac on, goes on any surface and brings the best form.

(14) Liveinthefastlane might be one at value, currently priced at $26. Wasn’t far off first up at Warwick Farm and then ran 3rd despite sitting four-wide the trip last start. Has been competitive in town previously so isn’t hopeless at blowout odds.

Tip: (1) Pandano $2.30 TAB

Value: (12) Liveinthefastlane $26 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Pandano, 0.25 units WIN Liveinthefastlane

Good little race here. Going to stick with the favourite (2) Najmaty who can’t have been more impressive in her two starts to date. She was very good on the Kenso on debut and then charged home again to win at Caulfield last start. The form out of that race has proved strong so from the decent draw with JMac on, she goes on top.

(5) Crystal Bound is another that can’t have been more impressive in her only start, bolting in by more than 6L at Moonee Valley on debut. She sat outside the leader on that occasion and beat He’s Xceptional, who ran 2nd to Hunnam at his next start. Hunnam was 3rd behind Najmaty prior to that so he’s the horse to tie in to both Najmaty and Crystal Bound.

Shapes as a great race.

Tip: (2) Najmaty $2.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Najmaty

The first Group 1 of the day is the Australian Oaks for the three-year-old fillies. I’ll stick with (3) Hungry Heart who has hit her straps in her past two starts. I’ve been on her in both, those being the Phar Lap Stakes and the Vinery Stud Stakes. She steps up to 2400m now, which is the obvious query, but her win in the Vinery last start was probably the run of the day, coming from nearly last on a day where it was very hard to make ground.

(2) Amarelinha is the other I’ll be on in the race. She’s a last-start New Zealand Oaks winner, which took her record to five wins and two 2nds from seven starts. NZ Oaks winners have won two of the last five Oaks’, so it’s a form reference that has proven successful.

$4.80 and $4.20 for those two horses respectively.

Tip: (3) Hungry Heart $4.80 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (2) Amarelinha $4.20 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Hungry Heart, 1.5 units WIN Amarelinha

(9) Isotope did a good job to win at her first run back since the Gold Coast Magic Millions. She was held up in the straight and was still able to run down a good horse in Odeum. Drawn well again and I see no reason why she can’t win again today.

(8) September Run drops in grade after running in Group 1 company all prep. She now drops into a Group 2 and returns to Sydney. She’s failed three times here at Randwick but that was a long time ago, so it will be interesting to see how she handles the track from barrier 1.

(3) Rocketing By, (5) Wisdom Of Water and (7) The Face can go well at bigger odds.

Tip: (9) Isotope $3.60 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Isotope

Backing three horses in the Sydney Cup.

(7) Miami Bound would probably appreciate it a bit wetter but I thought her run last start was terrific in the Tancred. She arguably should have finished closer to She’s Ideel but she was badly held up at a crucial stage of the straight. Gets in light and can give this a shake at double figure odds.

(10) Favourite Moon won on Australian debut in the Manion Cup. Should be fitter for that run given he was first up from a 24-week spell over 2400m. Won second up last prep over 2800m so should be competitive, as the Europeans normally are in this race.

(12) She’s Ideel ran a huge race at her first go at WFA Group 1 level last start. Should have won two starts ago, loves this track, gets in light, draws well and just has to handle the step up to 3200m.

Tip: (12) She's Ideel $5.50 TAB

Also Backing: (10) Favourite Moon $6.50 TAB

Value: (7) Miami Bound $10 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN She's Ideel, 1 unit WIN Favourite Moon, 1 unit WIN Miami Bound

Round 4 of the Addeybb vs Verry Elleegant match up here in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

(7) Verry Elleegant got the better of (1) Addeybb in the Ranvet Stakes first up, with a length separating them. I thought it was a great effort from Addeybb given he went into that race with a lameness issue and was first up, while Verry Elleegant was third up. Addeybb has five wins from six starts when second up from a spell and he also gets the notable gear change of blinkers on first time. The concern for him would be the firm track as he’s significantly better on wet ground, but he still might be good enough to turn the tables.

(2) Sir Dragonet bounced back to form in dominant style last start, but the drop back to 2000m is the concern for him.

(4) Think It Over is the blowout chance at 20/1.

Tip: (1) Addeybb $3.60 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

You would think if (1) Probabeel turned up, this would be all over. She drops back to a set weights race against her own sex, and she’s a far better horse than anything in this race. If she can bounce back from her disappointing showing in the All-Star Mile, she’d be very hard to beat.

(4) Nimalee did get everything in her favour last start when she box seated from barrier 1 on a track that favoured those on the rails and on speed. She’s still returned in good order and shouldn’t be underestimated.

(6) Quantum Mechanic is another that came out of that race behind Nimalee. Her effort was good to finish 3rd and she can be included at double figure odds.

(11) Odeum was only run down late by Isotope last start. My query is the step up from 1200m to 1600m.

Tip: (1) Probabeel $2.40 Ladbrokes

Value: (4) Nimalee $15 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Probabeel, 0.5 units WIN Nimalee

Sticking with (7) Seasons here, who I’ve been on both times this prep. She ran well at big odds first up and then saluted impressively last start at Rosehill, once again at a decent price. She comes back to her home track today, draws barrier 1 and should be spot on third up from a spell, so I see no reason to jump off.

(11) Wandabaa has run well in both starts this prep, she just hasn’t been suited by race shapes or track patterns. Draws better today than she did last start so may be able to sit a touch closer and she’s got a good record at this track and distance, so she should be competitive.

(4) Fiesta had no luck at all last start and that followed a good run first up. She should be spot on today and $8.50 isn’t a bad price.

(3) Entriviere has won five of her six starts in New Zealand, and lost by a nose at the only one she lost. Has to be respected.

Tip: (7) Seasons $5.50 BlueBet

Also Backing: (11) Wandabaa $7.00 BlueBet

Value: (4) Fiesta $8.50 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Seasons, 0.5 units WIN Wandabaa, 0.5 units WIN Fiesta