Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, April 17th

(2) Mahamedeis clearly on top in the opener. We had him as a horse to follow after two slashing runs to start the prep, before failing in the Albury Cup. He bounced back from that with an excellent run in the Easter Cup, less than a length off Persan. Gets in exceptionally well at the weights, the Caulfield 2000m is probably his best T/D and he maps well.

 

Happy to be against (4) Fanciful Toff at the prices who is flying but had the perfect run last start and I have some query dropping back to 2000m. Kah on for Maher/Eustace will win a lot of races and he’s rock hard fit but this looks harder and sharper.

 

(3) Declares War has been running well in Adelaide and did start a very similar price to Mahamedeis in the Albury Cup but raced wide. He looks the danger at double figures.

 

Tip: (2) Mahamedeis- $2.00 at Bet365

Value: (3) Declares War- $13.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Mahamedeis, 0.25 units WIN Declares War

Very open. (8) Spring Choice was good first up off a very long break behind Shandy. He maps for a nice run midfield with plenty of speed on.

 

(4) Cadre Du Noir is probably the best horse in the race but 1400m, drawn wide, he might need this.

 

(5) Mr Tipla will need luck from barrier one, because a few of these leaders will be falling in his lap, but $26 seems a big price for a horse who has won 3 from 7 first up, and placed on two more occasions. His run first up off 10 weeks in the grey’s bm90 was very good and would see him very competitive here.

 

(2) Somerset Maugham is a good horse but may be a touch outsped over 1400m

Tip: (5) Mr Tipla- $26.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.5u E/W Mr Tipla

(3) Beau Rossa is the dominant favourite off a 7 length demolition at Sandown over 1300m. Gets to the mile very quickly which is the query as is the fact he was nominated for a sprint race in SA, although Clarken said he’s so versatile it wouldn’t have mattered. Looks short enough to me but I’m not really sure what beats him.

 

(4) Black Penn just keeps finding slow race shapes where he can’t run on, and unfortunately on paper he may find one again. Convinced he has a good race in him with the right run but he might just get back and have too much to do again.

 

(12) Miss Inbetween is racing well and should be thereabouts again.

 

Not betting at the prices. If Beau Rossa starts closer to $1.50 I could potentially lay him on the basis that he might not run 1600m.

 

Tip: (4) Black Penn- $12.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

(1) Mr Quickie should be hard to beat again after winning as my best value last start. He came from last and circled the field and gets in incredibly well at the weights here with 61kg considering his handicap rating. $1.80 after the scratching of Shandy is probably fair, although I would’ve preferred her in.

 

(6) Galaxy Raider flew home for 3^rd to Mr Quickie last start but meets him 2.5kg worse at the weights, started $61 there and also never wins.

 

(2) So Si Bon the old marvel was a touch outclassed in the Doncaster Prelude but gets back to a winnable race, although Mr Quickie beat him fair and square in the Futurity.

 

(3) Iconoclasm next best, but again Mr Quickie beat him easily last start and meets him 5.5kg better.

 

If we got even money Mr Quickie it’d be a max bet job.

 

Tip: (1) Mr Quickie- $1.82 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Mr Quickie

Good race! I’m a big fan of (1) Shelby Cobra even though he failed awfully as the $1.65 favourite at Ballarat at the end of last prep. His two wins prior at Flemington and Sale were very good and he probably should’ve won on debut at The Valley too. 1100m is a touch short and he’ll get back but he’s jumped out very nicely (Missile Mantra and Sword Of Mercy have won out of that jumpout) and I think he’s a reasonable price.

(2) La Mexicana comes back to Melbourne after a failure in the Surround Stakes at group 1 level. She’s unbeaten at Caulfield and whilst I think she’d prefer a soft track, she maps to stalk them and find a gap with Kah on as she did two starts ago.

 

(10) Vowmaster is wearing very thin but was okay last start despite taking the corner awfully.

 

(7) Capriccio won nicely down the straight first up but does lose D Lane and might need some luck from 1.

Tip: (1) Shelby Cobra- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Shelby Cobra

Going with one at a huge each way price in (4) Scissor Step who comes out of the Ballarat lead up where he ran 3^rd to Starry Legend, who is favourite here. Up in trip to 1200m looks to suit and the win over 1100m two back was quite good when wide. Gets a big jockey change with Lane taking over and she maps to stalk them from barrier 4.

 

(2) Starry Legend has to extend from 1000m to 1200m but if he handles that he’ll probably just win. Has looked very good in two starts and did it pretty easily at Ballarat.

 

(10) Arcaded won in Sydney last start after a Blue Diamond failure and has claims.

 

(1) Finance Tycoon has been up for a long time but did run 4^th in the Blue Diamond, not beaten far by Anamoe which is elite form. If he’s still ticking along nicely he’ll be hard to beat if he slots in from a wide gate.

 

Tip: (4) Scissor Step- $41.00 at Bet365

Also Backing: (1) Finance Tycoon- $5.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Scissor Step, 0.5 units WIN Finance Tycoon

Keen on (10) Alfa Oro here who started a drifting favourite first up over 1000m and settled 4^th in run, which is the furthest back he’s ever settled, and hit the line well for 3^rd chasing a very fast Sartorial Splendor. He ran the quickest 400-200m split of the race and I think fitness just gave out late, with reports from the yard suggesting he wasn’t as forward as other preps. Probably doesn’t lead here either but 1100m suits and he gets in on the minimum.

 

(5) Sword Of Mercy is flying and was too good for Alfa Oro last start. Before that she was 1L off Celebrity Queen and Portland Sky in an Oakleigh Plate. She only goes up 1kg for her win and should get a nice run again, it just depends how much improvement Alfa Oro has to come.

 

(1) Ancestry was pressured in front at Mornington and did fairly well to stick on for 4^th. Has to concede some smart horses a lot of weight here and will cop pressure for the front again from Sisstar.

 

(4) Prophet’s Thumb will be the one flying from the back. She was good in the Newmarket and the Oakleigh Plate and gets Kah back on.

 

Tip: (10) Alfa Oro- $4.80 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.25 units WIN Alfa Oro

Going with (6) Felicia who comes here first up and has trialled very well. First up off 10 weeks last prep she split Showmanship and Age Of Chivalry which is excellent form. She then beat a handy field in the How Now Stakes by 2L and ran some very good races all prep. I think she’s got the speed to lead these from out wide and will take some running down.

 

(3) How Womantic was okay in the Oakleigh Plate and ran well last start at Mornington. I think they might hand up from barrier one and try to sprint past Felicia, which she’s definitely capable of doing.

 

(1) Laverrod beat How Womantic at Mornington and meets her 2kg worse for it. He got the tempo to suit there but can win again.

Tip: (6) Felicia- $4.40 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Felicia

Happy to be with (14) Good And Proper at a nice price in the last. This mare is flying and seemingly keeps getting underrated by the market. She won two in a row before running 2^nd to Quantum Mechanic (who has won a group 2 and run 3^rd in another since). Last start at Ballarat she drew wide and went back and had nearly no hope of winning but rattled home in the fastest last 200m of the day. Draws better here in barrier 4 and I think she’s a great bet.

 

(10) Lunakorn is good enough but probably gets a long way back as she did last start, which makes things hard.

 

(5) La Chevalee can run a nice race first up but does draw wide which can be tough at the 1400m start.

 

(6) Thousand Wishes was okay first up in a stronger race and does go well 2^nd up. She maps well with Lane taking the ride.

Tip: (14) Good And Proper- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Good And Proper