Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, April 2nd

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 12:10pm (AEDT)

We’ve seen a few horses in recent years come through the Blue Diamond Stakes in Melbourne and go on to win the Kindergarten Stakes in Sydney, and (1) Semillion brings that set up this year for Team Hawkes and William Pike. Led them up in the Diamond and fought on well to finish 5th, beaten 1.35L. Won on debut on soft ground, albeit a 5 is very different to a Heavy 10. Pike is flying and the horse should take some running down here.

(5) Voldermort only comes off a Scone maiden win but the style in which he won was impressive. JMac on for Annabel Neasham, clearly has talent.

(10) Ginger’s Gal has won all four trials leading into her debut today and commands respect. Notably it was 2010 when a filly last won this race.

Tip: (1) Semillion $4.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Semillion

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 12:49pm (AEDT)

(3) Straight Arron is a horse I was keen on first up but he bumped into Loch Eagle who may be pretty smart. They pulled about 6L clear of the other horses which is generally a good indication that they are above average. Should come on from that run and prove hard to beat here.

(2) Jalmari wasn’t beaten all that far in the G2 Ajax Stakes last start and much like his stablemate Shelby Sixtysix, just seems to be improving with every start.

(10) Cap Estel was well-beaten in the G1 Coolmore Classic last start but was impressive prior to that.

Tip: (3) Straight Arron $2.35 Moneyball

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Straight Arron

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 1:24pm (AEDT)

Very hard race the Adrian Knox, with a full field of 16 three-year-old fillies tackling the 2000m.

(12) Mamounia bolted in over this distance at the end of last prep before an eye-catching first up run over 1300m at Newcastle, fresh off a nine-week break. She now steps straight up to 2000m, an unconventional sort of prep but we know she handles the trip. Jamie Kah booked to ride for Godolphin, she looks a major player.

(1) Roots carries top weight for JMac and Waller. She was disappointing in the Phar Lap Stakes last start and as a result, the very heavy track here must be some concern, but on best form she’d be very competitive.

(2) Honeycreeper looked like she’d need another lap in the Tasmanian Oaks last start but the blinkers go on for the first time here.

(4) Secret Glamour represents the Maher-Eustace team, always worth respecting their runners over these sorts of distances.

Tip: (12) Mamounia $7.00 TopSport

Also Backing: (1) Roots $7.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Mamounia, 0.5 units WIN Roots

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 1:59pm (AEDT)

One for the diehards here with a field of stayers racing over 2600m on a Heavy 10 in the Chairman’s Quality.

The Manion Cup (now known as the Queen’s Cup) is a good lead up race for this.

(12) Chalk Stream ran 3rd in the Queen’s Cup after sitting three-wide the trip and should be cherry ripe now third up from a spell. Has won three times over 2400m in the UK and handles the ground so with 53kg at the right stage of his prep, he looks hard to beat.

(6) Zeyrek started the well-backed $2.50 favourite in the Queen’s Cup and finished 4th. Prior to that was dominant over 2000m. Has two wins over 2400m so the distance shouldn’t really be a query and he’s drawn a plum gate in barrier 4.

(11) Luncies started $6.50 in the Queen’s Cup but failed. Prior to that he was sound behind Zeyrek and he gets blinkers on for the first time today.

Maher-Eustace said (15) Le Baol was their best chance of the day, while (2) Great House and (13) Alakahan are other chances.

Tip: (6) Zeyrek $4.40 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Zeyrek

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 2:40pm (AEDT)

The Country Championships Final is a lottery.

(1) Cavalier Charles defeated Shelby Sixtysix in a Highway Handicap four starts ago. We all know what Shelby Sixtysix has gone on to do since then! Cavalier Charles has also continued his form, with an eye-catching 0.5L defeat followed by consecutive wins. Heavy track some query but has to be a big chance.

(2) Far Too Easy is building a nice record with five wins from eight starts. Ran 4th to King Of Sparta in the Gold Coast 3YO Magic Millions two starts ago and prior to that was 2nd to Me Me Lagarde.

Speaking of good records, (4) Testator Silens has five wins from six starts, is undefeated on rain-affected ground, including a win at Rosehill on a Heavy 10.

(6) Edit was a terrific run first up behind Cavalier Charles and they’ve aimed him at this race for a long time now. You’d have to think the heavy ground is the biggest query given he’s never won on rain-affected ground.

(11) To The Nines the blowout at $41.

Tip: (6) Edit $8.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 3:19pm (AEDT)

The first Group 1 on the card is the ATC Sires’ Produce.

The Golden Slipper winner (12) Fireburn looks exceptionally hard to beat off her explosive last-start victory on the bottomless track at Rosehill, which followed up her heavy track win in the Sweet Embrace Stakes. The Heavy 10 really makes her the horse to beat here and although there is some thought that the Slipper may have been her grand final, Gary Portelli was talking a possible tilt at the Champagne Stakes, which indicates she’s showing no signs of slowing down.

(13) She’s Extreme ran 2nd to Fireburn in the Sweet Embrace before winning the Magic Night. She was luckless in the Golden Slipper and looks a logical danger at $8.50.

I think the underrated colt in the line up is (7) Magic, who was eye-catching on debut in the Silver Slipper. He then started favourite in the Pago Pago but was a touch disappointing. I said after his debut he had Sires’ written all over him so I won’t be dropping off here, especially from a grand final stable.

Tip: (12) Fireburn $2.00 Bet365

Value: (7) Magic $17 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Fireburn, 0.5 units WIN Magic

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 3:59pm (AEDT)

I’m still hurting about the run of (5) Regal Lion in the Tulloch Stakes last start after backing him at 20/1 on the day. The shift of the meeting to Newcastle and therefore the distance change from 2000m to 1850m really hurt in the end. The run from the horse was absolutely enormous, which was his first start in Australia after a sound effort in the New Zealand Derby. Murray Baker has had so much success in this race in the past and this looks another live chance for him.

(1) Hitotsu recorded a remarkable win in the Australian Guineas first up from a spell. He now steps up from the mile to 2400m second up, it’s almost unprecedented what he’s been able to do. He did step up from the mile to 2500m when winning the VRC Derby last prep, but he hasn’t been tested on a heavy track yet.

(15) Benaud‘s run in the Tulloch was also very good in 4th, so if you like Regal Lion you have to entertain Benaud.

(9) Can’t Go Wrong is building towards a big run over this sort of trip.

Tip: (5) Regal Lion $6.50 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Regal Lion

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 4:40pm (AEDT)

I get the feeling we’re going to see the real (1) Nature Strip turn up today. His first up run in the Lightning Stakes was tremendous after blowing the start, but he was awfully disappointing in the Challenge Stakes last start. The form out of that race has stood up through Shelby Sixtysix, and it’s not the first time we’ve seen Nature Strip put in a sub-par performance at his second run back. He was beaten in last year’s Challenge Stakes as the odds-on favourite, then came out and won the T J. He also suffered defeat in The Shorts last prep before winning the Everest third up. He has six wins from eight starts when third up so tipping him to show up here.

(6) Shelby Sixtysix has taken the country by storm in a quite remarkable progression from a Highway Handicap to a Group 1 Galaxy. Now tackles the country’s premier sprinters in one of the country’s top sprint races under weight-for-age conditions. It’s his biggest test but who’s to say he can’t measure up?

(8) Roch ‘N’ Horse adds intrigue off the G1 Newmarket Handicap victory, which has seen subsequent William Reid Stakes winner September Run frank the form.

(2) Eduardo will be right thereabouts, while (3) Masked Crusader appears out of form but can never really be discounted on best form.

Tip: (1) Nature Strip $3.00 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Nature Strip

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 5:20pm (AEDT)

(16) Forbidden Love looks almost a weighted moral here, surely? She’s had four starts this prep for a 2nd followed by three consecutive wins, her past two being Group 1s. She drops 7kg down to 50kg here and simply looks thrown in at the weights. Five wins from six starts on heavy ground, with any luck in running with Jamie Kah aboard, she will be mighty hard to beat again.

I’ve been saying all along that (6) Laws Of Indices is a Doncaster horse and here he is, down in the weights with 53kg. Amazingly, he meets Forbidden Love 1.5kg worse off at the weights for a 1.5L defeat last start, so he’s got plenty to turn around but at 25/1 he’s worth a spec.

(20) Converge drops back to the mile after running 2nd to Anamoe over 2000m in the Rosehill Guineas last start. He won the Randwick Guineas over track and distance two starts ago, where he got the better of Anamoe, and on that form with 49.5kg he’d have to be a serious shout.

(2) I’m Thunderstruck next best.

Tip: (16) Forbidden Love $3.90 TopSport

Value: (6) Laws Of Indices $26 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Forbidden Love, 0.25 units WIN Laws Of Indices

Odds Last Updated: April 2, 2022, 5:54pm (AEDT)

Complete lottery to end the card.

(13) Zapateo ran 2nd to Mazu first up and then ran a good race in 4th behind that same horse in the Fireball Stakes last start. Looks ready for 1200m now.

(16) Comrade Rosa produced a good first up win at Newcastle coming from the back of the field. It was only a BM64 at the provincials but looks to have scope to improve.

(7) Me Me Lagarde comes here first up from a spell with JMac booked to ride. Was last seen running 2nd in the Gold Coast 3YO Guineas.

(5) Heresy drops out of Group 1 company.

Tip: (13) Zapateo $8.00 Moneyball

Value: (16) Comrade Rosa $21 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet