Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, February 26th

Highway Handicaps are hard enough let alone when they’re being run on a Heavy 10.

(1) Pretty Woman started $4.80 in a Group 2 and $5.00 at Flemington in a Listed race, now resumes as a $3.90 chance in a Highway. Always hard to know how they will handle a track his wet, especially first up, but she looked it OK in winning her recent trial. Based on her juvenile form, she is the one to beat here.

(2) Shelby Sixtysix is a non-winner but gets his chance again here. Pike gave him the best ride you could ever hope for from barrier 17 last start and I reckon he turned it up in the final 50m to go down by a nose. Has been effective on heavy ground previously so no reason he can’t be in the finish again.

Tip: (1) Pretty Woman $3.90 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Pretty Woman

(4) Key Largo is hard to trust but he really gets his chance to win again here with James McDonald a noticeable jockey booking. He’s run 2^nd in three of his four starts this prep, and the outlier was two starts ago when he was luckless in a similar race to this. Wet ground no issue and JMac could be the difference.

(6) Dalaalaat represents the in-form Nathan Doyle stable with William Pike booked to ride. Has a great first up record with two wins and two placings from five starts and has run 2^nd on heavy ground before. Has claims.

(10) Mayrose won first up at Canterbury, coming from last and looping the field which isn’t easy at that track. Clearly goes fine on the rain-affected ground and will measure up in this grade.

(2) Invincible Kiss is flying and shouldn’t be $16. Ran 2^nd three starts ago at Warwick Farm, then had no luck at all two stats ago before atoning in this company last start. Gets 2kg more in the weights but it’s a silly price.

Tip: (4) Key Largo $3.45 BoomBet

Value: (2) Invincible Kiss $16.20 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Key Largo, 0.5 units WIN Invincible Kiss

(3) Lady Laguna won her first two starts before resuming from a 10-week let-up with a very brave effort behind Cythera. She sat wide throughout there and still hit the line very strongly late, which suggests she’ll relish getting out to 1200m for the first time here. Her only start on heavy ground was a 4L victory so with those things in mind, she goes on top.

(2) Xtravagant Star is undefeated from two starts, winning her maiden on debut at Geelong before coming to Sydney and proving far too good in the Inglis Millennium. That was on soft ground but she’s yet to race on heavy ground. Draws well and probably finds herself in front so will be the one Lady Laguna has to chase down.

(4) Fireburn has won her past two starts, including a win over Revolutionary Miss last time out. That filly then went to Melbourne and won the Blue Diamond Prelude for fillies and mares, so the form has stacked up.

(9) Miss Faberge was held up the entire straight on debut and looked to have plenty to offer.

Tip: (3) Lady Laguna $2.70 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

James McDonald would have had plenty of options here and he goes with the Anthony and Sam Freedman-trained (17) Custodian, who debuts on the back of a winning trial. Happy to follow JMac’s lead.

(15) Peace Officer didn’t have any luck on debut, held up until the 100m mark. Nash sticks and the wide draw could be a blessing.

(9) Man In The Mirror gets William Pike booked to ride for Annabel Neasham. He won his debut back in December, beating Paris Dior. That’s reasonable form.

(5) Sandpaper didn’t get a whole lot of luck last start but finished well and Bowman sticks.

Tip: (17) Custodian $8.00 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

Not often does James McDonald get down to 54kg but he does so here to ride (8) Atishu for Chris Waller. This mare won her Australian debut over 1400m first up last prep so she should be sharp enough to win over 1300m here, and she won’t be harmed by the wet track. Each way odds available.

(2) Ellsberg is a first up specialist, with three wins from as many outings. He’s only ever finished out of the money on two occasions from 14 starts and he’s effective in all conditions, so he should play a major part in the finish.

(9) Quantico won his final three starts last prep but the concern here has to be the heavy track. He’s only had two starts on rain-affected ground and failed in both.

(12) Poetic Charmer ran well down in grade last start and will be suited by the track conditions. Can run a place at double figure odds with no weight on his back.

Tip: (8) Atishu $7.50/$2.60 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units E/W Atishu

(8) Icebath is the short-priced favourite here with James McDonald once again getting down to 54kg to ride her, but I think this is a wide-open race and I’d be reluctant to jump in at the short quote. She does love a wet track and will find this much more suitable than the company she tackled first up, but she’s no good thing.

(2) Forbidden Love probably should have won the Expressway first up and she has a terrific record at this track and distance and on heavy ground. Drawn soft, Bowman sticks, goes close.

(3) Vangelic looks the one from the Waterhouse-Bott yard that is tuned up for this race first up. Has been trialling well and has raced on wet ground well in the past. Clark on, goes forward and will give a good sight.

(7) Kiku comes here fresh from the Gold Coast where she ran 3^rd to Snapdancer in the Magic Millions fillies and mares race. Has never missed a place from five starts on rain-affected ground and she rarely runs a bad race so expect her to run well.

(9) Harmony Rose is a complete blowout to include in numbers. She’s won two from three when first up and two from three on soft ground.

(11) Promise Of Success ran well behind Snapdancer first up and has a big turn of foot when she’s at her best.

Tip: (2) Forbidden Love $6.00 Sportsbet

Value: (7) Kiku $10 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

Click here to view our runner-by-runner preview of the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes!

Waller looks to have a stranglehold on the Surround Stakes.

Leaning to (7) Espiona to atone for her defeat at the hands of Fangirl first up in the Light Fingers Stakes. She started $1.60 on that occasion and was run down late by her stablemate. Notably, that was her first go on good ground, with her two dominant victories last preparation coming on rain-affected ground. Tipping she’ll relish the conditions here and make amends.

(3) Fangirl went in underrated first up but proved she’s very good with victory in the Light Fingers taking her record to four wins from six starts. Gets a very tricky draw here but by this time of the day the outer part of the track might be the place to be. Did win on a soft 6 last prep. No surprise to see her win again.

(5) Hinged could make it a Waller trifecta. She was sound first up in the Light Fingers and she’s undefeated at this distance and also second up. She’s also had four goes on wet ground for three wins and a 2^nd.

(4) Four Moves Ahead can be thrown in at huge odds. All three career wins have come on rain-affected ground.

Tip: (7) Espiona $2.20 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

(8) Mr Gee has won three of his past five starts after saluting at Canterbury with 61kg last start. He didn’t have any luck in his final start last preparation, and he normally needs a run to come good, so now that he’s fit I think he’s capable of winning again. Has won in these conditions previously.

(3) Chalk Stream is one of the most interesting runners of the day, making his Australian debut for Chris Waller, owned by the Queen. Has seven top-two finishes from 10 starts in the UK and JMac jumps off Yiyi to ride this horse.

(12) Surefire is another European import for Waller. The colt has three wins from five starts but has never run on wet ground.

(2) Yiyi has burnt punters all prep and now gets Tim Clark on from the wide gate. Expect it to be ridden positively.

(9) Outlandos is flying but drops from 2400m to 2000m which is a query.

Tip: (8) Mr Gee $10/$3.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Mr Gee

(4) Gravina is my best of the day at Randwick. He proved to be a money-muncher last preparation, going down at $5.50, $1.85, $1.95 and $2.50, but the Godolphin camp have gelded him ahead of this preparation which may do the trick. He was given a quiet trial without the blinkers, but the shades go back on for raceday and the booking of Nash Rawiller is a positive. All three career wins have been on soft ground so should relish these conditions. With Maotai scratched, this looks a really good race for him.

(3) The Bopper was only run down late by Rule Of Law last start and that horse is airborne.

They look the two obvious winning chances.

Tip: (4) Gravina $3.10 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Gravina