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Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, February 26th

Trent Crebbin previews the 10-race card at Caulfield on Blue Diamond Stakes day, which also features the Futurity Stakes and Oakleigh Plate!

Huge day of racing at Caulfield on Saturday with the Blue Diamond Stakes headlining a nine-race card, along with the Futurity Stakes and the Oakleigh Plate.

All 10 races are at black-type level and Trent Crebbin has previewed every race on the card with his best bet coming up in the last.

The track is a good 4 and the rail is out 3 metres.

Find our race-by-race preview and tips below!

Best Bet: Race 9 – (5) Desert Icon

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210258

Race 1

Neds Zeditave Stakes (1200m)
12:40pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Neds Zeditave Stakes (1200m)
12:40pm (AEDT)

1. Finance Tycoon (2) J: Damian Lane (58.5kg) T: D T O'brien
665.2
2. Generation (3) J: Ms Jamie Kah (58.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
21.91.94
3. Chartres (1) J: Ethan Brown (56kg) T: M M Laurie
313123
4. Along The River (5) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56kg) T: M J Ellerton
263121
5. Mars Mission (4) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
3.23.23.25
6. Mornington Glory (6) J: Ben Melham (56kg) T: M M Laurie
9910.2

Good little kick off to Blue Diamond day. (6) Mornington Glory is always a horse I’ve had time for since his first trial before last prep. His debut win was good but he still does a bit wrong and was well beaten in the Red Anchor at $8 behind Generation before a spell. He’s jumped out and trialled super leading into this and gets a couple of good gear changes. I think he can measure up with a spell under the belt. 

(5) Mars Mission is a talented horse on the up. Both wins this prep have been good and he was dominant at The Valley on speed. Interesting to note that Mcneil jumps off Generation to stick with this horse and I think he’ll sit outside the leader and control this race again.

(2) Generation was underdone first up but was given a good ride and sprinted well to score at this T/D. He probably stalks Mars Mission and will be fitter here. 

(1) Finance Tycoon was solid first up when wide and does have that massive win at this T/D but all his other form is just fair.

Tip: (6) Mornington Glory- $9.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (5) Mars Mission- $3.20 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mars Mission, 0.5 units WIN Mornington Glory

210258

Race 2

Catanachs Jewellers Mannerism (1400m)
1:15pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Catanachs Jewellers Mannerism (1400m)
1:15pm (AEDT)

1. Rich Hips (5) J: Michael Dee (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
55.55.2
2. Flying Mascot (4) J: Blaike Mcdougall (58kg) T: Tom Dabernig
1.851.851.86
3. Kahma Lass (1) J: Brett Prebble (57kg) T: J W Richards
11119.5
4. Bonvicini (7) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
212117.2
5. Under My Spell (3) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56kg) T: N A Blackiston
87.58.6
6. Galgani (6) J: Craig Williams (56kg) T: Ms N Burke
151412.4
7. Bound To Win (2) J: Damien Oliver (56kg) T: P & P Snowden
887

(2) Flying Mascot is clearly the horse to beat and deserves to be short. Her first up run was very good, hitting the front with 25m to go but just run down by the now retired star mare Probabeel. She had a very good last prep and maps to get a pretty soft run trailing the leader.

(3) Kahma Lass is the one that I think should be a bit shorter. She also ran behind Probabeel first up and stuck closest to the inside around the bend which was the inferior ground (estimates of around 1-1.5L inferior). 2nd up last prep off a similar run she did a good job to run down Buffalo River at this T/D. She’s 2/2 when 2nd up and can provide some resistance.

(1) Rich Hips is a very good fresh mare (3/5 first up) and the 1400m is her best trip. She’ll be finishing strongly and looks the other main chance in the race.

Backing Kahma Lass each way (note only 2 places) and saving Flying Mascot.

Tip: (3) Kahma Lass- $12.00/4.60 at BlueBet

Saver: (2) Flying Mascot- $1.90 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Kahma Lass (NTD), 1 unit WIN Flying Mascot

210258

Race 3

Stow Storage Autumn Classic (1800m)
1:50pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Stow Storage Autumn Classic (1800m)
1:50pm (AEDT)

1. Lucky Decision (5) J: Blaike Mcdougall (57kg) T: P G Moody
88.57.6
2. Attractable (12) J: Luke Nolen (57kg) T: P G Moody
11119.3
3. Castlereagh Kid (4) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
3.63.43.65
4. Can't Go Wong (15) J: John Allen (57kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
181716.4
5. Bon Vivant (3) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57kg) T: James Cummings
171816
6. Van Roy (1) J: Ben Melham (57kg) T: D R Brideoake
262625.5
7. Benczkowski (6) J: Michael Dee (57kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
343128
8. Elzamee (10) J: Jye Mcneil (57kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
171817.2
9. Footlights (13) J: Damian Lane (57kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
344130
10. Mahrez (9) J: Mark Zahra (57kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
88.58.1
11. Savileo (2) J: Craig Williams (57kg) T: P G Moody
414130
12. Chateau Nue (14) J: Craig Newitt (57kg) T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr
13. Who Done The Deel (11) J: Brett Prebble (57kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
263125.5
14. El Patroness (7) J: Ms Jamie Kah (55kg) T: D T O'brien
3.93.93.95
15. Ninyo (8) J: Declan Bates (55kg) T: Aaron Laing
301201281

This looks a great betting race and I’m keen to back three horses. (3) Castlereagh Kid is a talented stayer on the up. He went out fast in front first up and bolted in at Gosford before going to Sandown and starting $1.70, toughing out a strong win. The early splits show he went nearly 8L below class average to the 800m there which I’m convinced isn’t his go, but he just kept kicking and came away again. Blinkers on here, 3rd up, a bit more pressure, he’ll roll along and be very hard to catch.

(10) Mahrez was enormous first up at Pakenham when getting a long way out of his ground before racing wide when staying at 1400m in the Autumn Stakes last start but coming again through the line. Up to 1800m will definitely help, as will a faster run race where hopefully he settles better.

(5) Bon Vivant looks a nice stayer as well. He didn’t do much when in Melbourne but I liked how strong his last 200m was at Warwick Farm last time out, really knuckling down late. Up to 1800m willl definitely suit this horse and he maps for a decent smother midfield. 

Tip: (3) Castlereagh Kid- $3.80 at Bet365

Also Backing: (10) Mahrez- $8.00 at Bet365

Value: (5) Bon Vivant- $17.00 at Betfair

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Castlereagh Kid, 0.75 units WIN Mahrez, 0.25 units WIN Bon Vivant

210258

Race 4

Neds Angus Armanasco Stakes (1400m)
2:25pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Neds Angus Armanasco Stakes (1400m)
2:25pm (AEDT)

1. Yearning (5) J: Jye Mcneil (59.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
121310.2
2. Bon's A Pearla (3) J: Brett Prebble (58.5kg) T: K L Corstens
1717.6
3. Mokulua (10) J: Ms Jamie Kah (58.5kg) T: C E Conners
141414.2
4. Argentia (1) J: Mark Zahra (58.5kg) T: A & S Freedman
1.951.951.96
5. Decent Raine (9) J: John Allen (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
65.56.2
6. Lavish Girl (4) J: Ben Melham (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
131312.2
7. Maracana (11) J: Damian Lane (56kg) T: Danny O'Brien
8. Roots (13) J: Damien Oliver (56kg) T: Chris Waller
9. Finepoint (12) J: Damien Oliver (56kg) T: Chris Waller
10. Forbidden City (7) J: Blaike Mcdougall (56kg) T: P G Moody
776.4
11. Hardly Sweet (8) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56kg) T: G Eurell
313123
12. Von Trapp (6) J: Craig Williams (56kg) T: Mark Newnham
192015.2
13. Fiasco Tess (2) J: Damien Thornton (56kg) T: D R Brideoake
919195

(4) Argentia was enormous first up despite all reports that she was substantially underdone. She came from last in a solidly run race and really knuckled down late to get up in a big win. She’s always shown plenty of talent and I think she’s the best filly in this race. Barrier 1 isn’t ideal but she just needs a gap to be winning this.

(10) Forbidden City annihilated her rivals first up in a weak maiden, bolting in by 8L. She’ll roll forward and potentially sit outside the leader again.

The Sydney fillies (3) Mokulua and (12) Von Trapp both made decent late ground first up over 1200m behind Fangirl and Espiona which is obviously very good form. Both will likely get a long way back but if Argentia is held up and they get the right race shape can finish well.

Tip: (4) Argentia- $2.20 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Argentia

210258

Race 5

Carlton Draught Peter Young (1800m)
3:05pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Carlton Draught Peter Young (1800m)
3:05pm (AEDT)

1. Cascadian (1) J: Damien Oliver (59kg) T: James Cummings
1.951.91.94
2. Steel Prince (7) J: Jye Mcneil (59kg) T: A & S Freedman
9.59.58.2
3. Shared Ambition (8) J: Craig Williams (59kg) T: Chris Waller
4. Yonkers (2) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (59kg) T: C J Waller
7.57.57.6
5. Callsign Mav (6) J: Jamie Mott (59kg) T: D T O'brien
6. Wentwood (4) J: Damian Lane (59kg) T: Maddie Raymond
161717.2
7. Delphi (3) J: John Allen (59kg) T: A & S Freedman
3.53.53.2
8. Emissary (5) J: Mark Zahra (59kg) T: M D Moroney
141515.2

Siding with the map horse in (5) Callsign Mav who I thought ran well first up in the Carlyon with 60kg, sitting 2nd to Open Minded who faded to be beaten 5L. He’s got a strong 2nd up record and did win the group 1 Windsor Plate 2nd up last prep at a mile. I think 1800m is a good trip for him around Caulfield and he’ll take some running down.

(1) Cascadian is interesting. His run in the Orr first up was super when railing through into 3rd, which wasn’t the best ground. He’s never won 2nd up and jumps straight to 1800m but does have a bit of a class edge on this field. Not sure where he gets to on the map- I’m not sure he has the early speed to hold leader’s back and he’ll need to sprint off what looks a tempo controlled by the danger.

(3) Shared Ambition can improve. He was given a barrier trial in the Carlyon when the COT to be ridden quietly came through and he was restrained to settle last. His sectionals were interesting, running the fastest 1000-800m, 0.01 off the fastest 800-600m, but hitting a flat spot between the 600-400m when 6th fastest. His last 400/200m were much better and he does have a good 2nd up record, and a good record at this T/D. If they choose to he can sit 2nd and run very well.

(7) Delphi is classy and was solid in a walking tempo first up last prep before great runs in the Naturalism and Herbert Power. He might need this hit out for the Australian Cup but he’s a good horse.

Tip: (5) Callsign Mav- $3.60 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Callsign Mav

210258

Race 6

Lamaros Hotel Futurity Stakes (1400m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Lamaros Hotel Futurity Stakes (1400m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

1. I'm Thunderstruck (7) J: Jye Mcneil (59kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
4
2. Streets Of Avalon (6) J: Brett Prebble (59kg) T: S P Nichols
212123.5
3. Mo'unga (4) J: Ms Jamie Kah (59kg) T: Annabel Neasham
55
4. Tofane (3) J: Mark Zahra (57kg) T: M D Moroney
2.72.62.45
5. Sierra Sue (1) J: John Allen (57kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
111111.2
6. Turaath (2) J: Damian Lane (57kg) T: Maddie Raymond
109.58.7
7. Extreme Flight (5) J: Damien Thornton (55.5kg) T: A & S Freedman
141514.6
8. Mr Mozart (8) J: Damien Oliver (55.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
415132

Only a small field for the Futurity but it’s an interesting race. I’m siding with (3) Mo’unga. He’s got an unbelievable first up record with 3 wins from 4 starts, the only miss a 3rd in the CS Hayes as a 3yo. First up last prep he won a group 1 over Verry Elleegant before running fantastic races in the Makybe Diva, Epsom, Cox Plate and Mackinnon. If he can get on the back of Tofane I think he can run a big race here. Ignore the trials- he never trials well, didn’t have blinkers on, and the latest was on a wet track. 

(4) Tofane is hard to knock. She got everything in her favour in the Orr leading just below average tempo and proving too strong. She generally improves 2nd up and she maps to land just behind the leaders from barrier 3. 

(1) I’m Thunderstruck was good late in the Orr despite being quite underdone. He’ll improve nicely into this and should’ve won the Rupert Clarke at this T/D last prep. He’s probably going to be last and will be charging late, I just wonder whether 1400m at Caulfield is his go. He’ll be flying late and be right on track for 1600m at Flemington.

(2) Streets Of Avalon ran okay behind Marabi first up and obviously loves this T/D. I think he’ll be ridden to lead from Turaath and be there for a while.

Tip: (3) Mo’unga- $5.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Mo’unga

210258

Race 7

Neds Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m)
4:25pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Neds Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m)
4:25pm (AEDT)

1. Semillion (16) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
171714
2. Lofty Strike (13) J: Jamie Mott (57kg) T: Julius Sandhu
3. Daumier (5) J: Mark Zahra (57kg) T: A & S Freedman
131312.4
4. Sebonack (8) J: Jye Mcneil (57kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
6.576.7
5. Counttheheadlights (7) J: Ben Allen (57kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
161614
6. Jacquinot (10) J: Damian Lane (57kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
4.44.44.55
7. Rampant Lion (6) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57kg) T: P G Moody
192121.5
8. Merchant Prince (12) J: Luke Nolen (57kg) T: P G Moody
616163
9. Flashing Steel (2) J: Brodie Loy (57kg) T: Annabel Neasham
9191101
10. Hafey (14) J: Craig Williams (57kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
161616.2
11. Revolutionary Miss (11) J: Ms Jamie Kah (55kg) T: P & P Snowden
5.55.55.6
12. Miss Roseiano (9) J: Jordan Childs (55kg) T: Peter Gelagotis
9.5108.2
13. Kiki Express (3) J: Damien Thornton (55kg) T: M J Ellerton
414140
14. English Riviera (4) J: John Allen (55kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
171818
15. Waltz On By (1) J: Blaike Mcdougall (55kg) T: P G Moody
171714
16. Seven Sisters (15) J: Fred Kersley (55kg) T: James Cummings
263120.5

For my runner by runner preview of the Blue Diamond Stakes, please follow the link:
https://www.racingbet.com.au/blue-diamond-stakes-2022-runner-by-runner-preview/

210258

Race 8

Neds Oakleigh Plate (1100m)
5:05pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Neds Oakleigh Plate (1100m)
5:05pm (AEDT)

1. Wild Ruler (6) J: Mark Zahra (58kg) T: P & P Snowden
88.58.6
2. Zoutori (12) J: Damian Lane (58kg) T: M J Ellerton
262620.5
3. Jonker (3) J: Jim Byrne (57.5kg) T: T J Gollan
161716
4. Bella Nipotina (10) J: Ms Jamie Kah (54kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
151513.6
5. Marabi (2) J: Ben Allen (54kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
2.82.62.85
6. Oxley Road (9) J: Blaike Mcdougall (52.5kg) T: P G Moody
11119.8
7. Away Game (5) J: Ms Linda Meech (52kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
8.598.5
8. Malkovich (4) J: Craig Newitt (52kg) T: Bjorn Baker
202019.8
9. Minhaaj (1) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (52kg) T: J A O'shea
88.57.3
10. Poland (8) J: Michael Poy (52kg) T: M D Moroney
343434
11. Streetcar Stranger (13) J: Paul Gatt (52kg) T: D R Jolly
414139
12. Ingratiating (11) J: Craig Williams (50kg) T: James Cummings
212118.8
13. General Beau (7) J: Matthew Cartwright (50kg) T: M J Ellerton
212118

Not a full field for the Oakleigh Plate. No doubt (5) Marabi is the horse to beat. She’s unbeaten and absolutely flying. Her win at this T/D in the Christmas Stakes was very good on a fast tempo, holding off Away Game who has since run very well in the MM mare’s race. The win last start was good but the form out of it has been very questionable and she did get every favour against horses not suited at 1200m. This is a good test.

(6) Oxley Road hasn’t drawn ideally but I think he can run well. He jumped out very well leading into his first up run where he had to lump 59kg and raced on the fence which was inferior. He drops 6.5kg now and 2nd up last prep at this T/D he did run well at SWP when 3rd to Masked Crusader. I’d love for him to get the same run he did when winning the Caulfield Sprint, just behind the speed, but he’ll need a good ride early to slot in.

(1) Wild Ruler has to carry 58kg but has trialled brilliantly for this. His first up run last prep was good behind Nature Strip in very good time and he maps to sit just off them.

(7) Away Game and (4) Bella Nipotina will be ridden off speed and be charging late, while (9) Minhaaj just needs some luck to sprint from barrier 1 but will have some horses falling back in her lap. 

Tip: (6) Oxley Road- $13.00/3.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Oxley Road

210258

Race 9

Neds Mornington Cup Prelude (2000m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Neds Mornington Cup Prelude (2000m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

1. Defibrillate (6) J: Billy Egan (60kg) T: Patrick Payne
151615.6
2. Port Guillaume (4) J: Luke Nolen (59kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
343426
3. Ziegfeld (10) J: Damien Oliver (58.5kg) T: James Cummings
151512.4
4. Pancho (2) J: Craig Williams (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
99.58.7
5. Desert Icon (5) J: Damien Thornton (55.5kg) T: C J Waller
2.12.12.2
6. Criminal Code (1) J: Brett Prebble (54.5kg) T: C J Waller
7.57.57.6
7. English King (8) J: Jye Mcneil (54.5kg) T: M D Moroney
414140
8. Wyclif (7) J: Damian Lane (54kg) T: D T O'brien
554.5
9. Chantrea (3) J: Declan Bates (54kg) T: L Smith
181818.2
10. Dirty Deeds (9) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: Simon Zahra
171914.4

Really looks a two horse race for mine. (5) Desert Icon was far too good over 1800m here last time out, sent straight to the front after being backed off the map and controlling the race to win comfortably. He’s up 2.5kg in weight but gets a good map again either leading or taking a sit off Ziegfeld and from there he’ll be very hard to beat. Expect him to be well backed again. 

(6) Criminal Code was the best closer in that race and does meet the winner 2.5kg better. Not sure he has the gate speed to land closer from barrier 1 but will be fitter 3rd up and with luck can pose resistance.

(8) Wyclif won well in Adelaide last start but didn’t beat much and had the right run. He looks short enough at 2nd favourite. 

Backing both the Waller runners- good bet Desert Icon, save Criminal Code. 

Tip: (5) Desert Icon- $2.25 at BoomBet

Saver: (6) Criminal Code- $7.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Desert Icon, 0.5 units WIN Criminal Code

Trent’s interest in the thoroughbred started out as a spark with Black Caviar, became a flame with Winx, and has now intensified into a burning obsession with Arcadia Queen. He started out throwing loose change on random trifectas at the pub, but it wasn’t long before he was watching replays and looking at sectionals, weights and markets. Trent specializes in Victorian racing and hopes his first winner as an owner is just around the corner.

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