Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, April 3rd

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 12:46pm (AEDT)

Interesting to note the boys have dominated this race in recent years. You have to go back to 2012 to find the last filly that won this, and that was the only filly in the past 17 years to do so.

Could be made to eat my hat early in the day but I think (6) Conrad is one of the lays of the day at $3.70. He comes into this on the back of a 3.7L maiden win at Wyong where he started $1.45, and now suddenly he is favourite for a G3 with barrier 12?

(3) Converge goes on top for me. He had no luck in the Pago Pago, caught three-wide the trip. He stuck on well to be beaten 1.3L and he should be able to go forward and get a better run from barrier 5 today. With the rail out 6m, it could pay to be on speed early so I’m happy with the $7.50 available for the GaiBott runner.

(2) Saif won on debut and then ran 2^nd in the Sires’ Produce at Flemington. Craig Williams keeps the ride and he draws barrier 1 so we could see him more forward in the run here.

(4) With Your Blessing also comes out of the Pago Pago, where he finished 0.5L ahead of Converge. He came from back in the field and hit the line well to be beaten less than a length so the step up to 1400m should suit.

(1) Readily Availabull ran 5^th in the Sires’ Produce after settling back and hitting the line hard, while (12) Flying Witness looks the best of the fillies to my eye.

Tip: (3) Converge $7.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Converge

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 1:21pm (AEDT)

This race is such a trap.

At his best, (1) Master Of Wine would absolutely walk in here. His only start in this grade was a 3.5L win and since that, he’s had eight starts all at Group 1 level. He now drops from weight-for-age Group 1s to a Group 3 at set weights and penalties, where he carries just 55.5kg! Third up last prep he was beaten less than a length by Verry Elleegant on a firm track over this distance. So, while all of that sounds very good, the question is whether he’s going well enough to win. I personally don’t think he’s going well enough for me to dive in at $2.50, so I’m against him.

(3) Shared Ambition resumed this prep with a win over Mount Popa, who then came out and won his next two easily. He was then beaten less than a length in Melbourne, before being well beaten in the Australian Cup last start. Master Of Wine really should beat him but I’m going to stick with the Waller horse.

(2) Entente won the Albury Cup last start but this is a big step up in class.

No surprise to see something at odds cause a boilover here. (5) Looks Like Elvis and (8) Aliferous would be the most likely, but neither like winning very much.

Tip: (3) Shared Ambition $3.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Shared Ambition

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 1:56pm (AEDT)

Absolutely love the price for (2) The Frontman here. The Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman stable bring a horse over to Australia every year to contest this before the ATC Derby and it’s always a horse with this sort of profile. They won this race in 2017, ran 3^rd and 4^th in 2018, ran 2^nd in 2019, and won it again last year. He ran 2^nd over 2100m two starts back before running 3^rd in the G1 New Zealand Derby last time out. The query is the firm ground as all four starts have been on a soft track, but Hugh Bowman is booked, he draws barrier 1 and $6.00 is a good each way bet.

(1) Cherry Tortoni was enormous in defeat in the Australian Guineas and just had plenty go against him again last start when the leader won by 6L. How far back does he get from barrier 11?

(6) Favreau bumped into Wheelhouse first up over an unsuitable trip but has since won his next two. It seems the longer the better for him and JMac goes on, so he looks a big chance.

Happy to back The Frontman each way here.

Tip: (2) The Frontman $6.00/$1.95 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W The Frontman

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

(1) Krone has hardly done anything to suggest she can’t make it four straight wins here? She was dominant in the Guy Walter Stakes two starts ago and just when everyone thought a firm track was a worry, she blitzed them in the G1 Coolmore Classic on a Good 3 here at Rosehill last start. She carries top weight here but this is a weaker race than what she won, and she meets the likes of All Saints’ Eve at essentially the same weights as she did last start. With even luck she looks the winner to me.

I really think (10) Nimalee is her only danger. She was terrific winning first up and they’ve kept her fresh coming into this, with six weeks between runs and a trial to tick her legs over. She draws barrier 1, gets 4kg off Krone, brings a different form line to the race and is the only other one I can make a case for.

(9) Icebath was only 2L off Krone last start and does meet her 3kg better at the weights, so she isn’t hopeless but I think she’s better in the wet.

(4) Quantum Mechanic comes for Melbourne and is in good form. Not without a hope from the good draw and is potentially some value at $18.

(5) Sweet Deal at her best would probably be favourite for this but she’s not going well enough this prep.

Tip: (1) Krone $3.10 TopSport

Saver: (10) Nimalee $5.00 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Krone, 0.5 units WIN Nimalee

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

Could make a case for most of these!

(6) California Zimbol was good when winning first up over 1100m here at Rosehill. She was always going to improve off that run so the fact she won is a big positive. She’s won three of her four starts when second up from a spell and she’s also undefeated from two starts at the track. Drawn well, should be very hard to beat. Interesting to note Kerrin McEvoy has jumped off though.

(10) Prime Candidate comes out of the same race as California Zimbol first up and he had no luck at all, sitting four-wide without cover on speed for half the race. He’s got a very good second up record with two wins and a 2^nd from three starts. He started $6.00 last start and was firm, so the market obviously expected him to run well. I expect him to bounce back today and $8.50 is currently over the odds.

(8) Signore Fox can pull out a run fresh and has JMac booked to ride after three trials leading into this, so no surprise to see her run well. He has a 35% strike rate for the stable.

(5) Easy Eddie has three wins from four starts when third up and did finish within a nose of California Zimbol first up.

(4) Brandenburg resumes as a gelding so watch the market.

Tip: (6) California Zimbol $4.60 Bet365

Value: (10) Prime Candidate $8.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN California Zimbol, 0.5 units WIN Prime Candidate

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

The Phar Lap Stakes and the Kembla Grange Classic have both been good races to follow for the Vinery in recent years and that’s the way I’m heading.

I was with (3) Hungry Heart in the Phar Lap and she made it six wins in the past seven years for trainer Chris Waller in the race. I’m not sure exactly what it was, but probably a combination of being third up, back on a good track, up in distance and down in grade did the trick. Her firm track form is actually quite good, with five top-two finishes from six starts. She gets up to 2000m now and I’m more confident after last start that she’ll run the trip. JMac interestingly jumps off to ride for Dabernig and Hayes, leaving Kerrin McEvoy to pick up the ride.

The two that ran the quinella in the Kembla Grange Classic were (5) Elizabeel and (6) Miravalle, in the opposite order to what I’ve just listed. Miravalle actually started $5.50 in last year’s Kennedy Oaks in Melbourne, and Elizabeel ran 3^rd in the Surround Stakes before that run at Kembla. Both are live chances here and at $14-$15, I’ll be having something small on each of them.

(2) Harmony Rose is favourite here and brings a different form reference, having run 3^rd in the Randwick Guineas to Lion’s Roar and Mo’unga. We saw that form franked with Mo’unga then winning the Rosehill Guineas. No real knock on her.

(1) Personal won last year’s Oaks in Melbourne and has been close up in both starts this prep. Has to be respected with McDonald going on.

Tip: (3) Hungry Heart $6.00 Sportsbet

Value: (5) Elizabeel $15 & (6) Miravalle $14

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Hungry Heart, 0.5 units WIN Elizabeel, 0.5 units WIN Miravalle

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 4:36pm (AEDT)

Interesting line up for the Tancred Stakes.

Plenty of attention will be on (11) Melody Belle, who is a 14-time Group 1 winner. She steps up to 2400m for the first time in her career as a six-year-old mare. That’s a query as her breeding certainly doesn’t suggest she is a stayer, along with a firming track (both wins this prep have been on soft ground) which also worries me. Have to let her go around, an amazing thing to say about a mare with her record in a race which appears fairly weak.

(1) Sir Dragonet is another that commands attention. He was an improved runner in last week’s Ranvet Stakes behind Verry Elleegant and Addeybb, and now steps up to 2400m on the one-week back up. He did get a wet track last week though and now faces a firm one, which he’s yet to win on.

My bet in the race, and my best value bet of the day, will be (13) Toffee Tongue. She returned to form in the Sky High Stakes last start, running down Spirit Ridge. It was potentially a combination of factors, including being third up from a spell, a good track and a step up in distance. She now steps up again to 2400m and although this is probably a harder race, I think she’s well suited. Drawn well, firm ground again, she’ll run the trip and a few ahead of her in the market have some questions to answer. She also meets the horse she beat 3kg better at the weights.

(6) Spirit Ridge was brave in defeat behind Toffee Tongue last start, which was his first run for nine weeks, so we can probably expect some improvement from him here. I had him as a horse to follow out of that meeting and I think he’s a live chance here stepping up to 2400m. He probably prefers a soft track but he’s certainly no hack on firm ground.

(2) Mirage Dancer steps up to his pet distance third up from a spell – he was a G1 winner in Sydney at this stage last preparation. He was good behind Toffee Tongue last start and looks a good chance.

(10) Shraaoh and even (12) She’s Ideel aren’t hopeless in an open race.

Tip: (13) Toffee Tongue $9.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Toffee Tongue

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 5:16pm (AEDT)

Very keen on the chances of (4) Rock here. I made him the horse to follow out of the meeting after his first up run in the Ajax Stakes, where he finished 3^rd. Ahead of him that day was Think It Over, who then came out last weekend and won the G1 George Ryder Stakes. Rock is undefeated third up from a spell with three wins from as many starts, he’s won twice at this distance and has also won twice at this level. Draws well and with even luck I think he goes mighty close here.

(15) Subedar is flying with back-to-back wins leading into this. The blinkers come off, potentially a move to let him settle and see out the 1500m, and he gets in light with 53kg.

(11) Bottega was run down in the final stride in the G3 Newcastle Newmarket first up and can go close here. Query is he’s had four starts at Rosehill for just the one minor placing.

(12) Criaderas was a huge run first up behind subsequent G1 winner Think It Over, but was very disappointing last start. He started $2.40 in the Ajax, which Rock ran 3^rd in, and suddenly he’s $11. Have to back him again at those odds, surely.

Tip: (4) Rock $4.60 TopSport

Value: (12) Criaderas $11 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Rock, 0.5 units WIN Criaderas

Odds Last Updated: April 3, 2021, 5:51pm (AEDT)

(5) Starspangled Rodeo hasn’t done much wrong leading into this. He won by 3L over this track and distance three starts back, then ran 2^nd to Yao Dash and then a luckless 2^nd in the Muswellbrook Cup last start. From barrier 3, we should see him settle much further forward today, provided he jumps a bit cleaner.

(9) Nudge could get a very long way back from barrier 17 but she ran well first up and can improve second up. Looks the value in the race at double figure odds.

(2) Thy Kingdom Come continues to run well and can do so again. He’s now placed in his nine of his past 10 starts.

(10) Segalas ran well behind the in-form Subedar first up and won second up last prep.

Tip: (5) Starspangled Rodeo $4.60 Ladbrokes

Value: (9) Nudge $10 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Starspangled Rodeo, 0.5 units WIN Nudge