Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, March 12th

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 12:24pm (AEDT)

(6) Epic Dan is proven in these conditions and after two runs back, he might be ready to do something now. He’s got three wins and two placings from eight starts at this stage of his preparation and he was beaten less than 2L last start.

(4) Dalaalaat resumes on a heavy track which is some query, but on best form he’d be very competitive in this. Does have a very good fresh record.

(10) Rumpshaker next best at double figure odds. Include in numbers.

Tip: (6) Epic Dan $11 Moneyball

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 12:59pm (AEDT)

(1) Queen Of The Ball bolted in two starts ago in the Widden Stakes before starting $2.25 against the boys in the Silver Slipper. Only managed 5^th there beaten 2L and I expect them to go back to riding her aggressively to lead here If they can. Whether the soft track brought her undone last start is the big issue given it will be heavy here.

(2) She’s Extreme finished hard in the Sweet Embrace Stakes on the Heavy 10 last start and was only beaten 0.75L on the line. Draws wide so will be giving them a head start again but will be flashing home.

(8) Winnertakesitall bumped into Sweet Ride on debut in the Black Opal preview at Canberra. Not the worst form here.

(13) Seiryu failed on debut in the Blue Diamond Prelude for the fillies but has won a trial since then and gets the winkers on.

Tip: (8) Winnertakesitall $13 Sportsbet

Value: (13) Seiryu $16 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 1:34pm (AEDT)

It was hard to miss the debut of (3) Magic in the Silver Slipper Stakes behind best Of Bordeaux. He settled back in the field and was basically last at the 300m mark before flashing home between runners in the final 100m to get within 0.6L of the winner. The step up to 1200m should really suit him and so long as he handles the heavy track, I think he’ll be winning.

(13) Custodian has been set to debut for a number of weeks now but has been scratched every time (maybe trying to dodge the wet tracks?). Won his only trial back on the 17^th February and I’d be respecting a colt from the Anthony and Sam Freedman stable.

(1) Sweet Ride was dominant on debut before finishing 5^th in the Inglis Millennium. Then went to the Black Opal Preview at Canberra and bolted in. Draws well to lead and will be very hard to run down.

(2) Rise Of The Masses next best after two placings from his past two starts.

Tip: (3) Magic $2.30 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Magic

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 2:09pm (AEDT)

(1) Ellsberg rates as the horse to beat after a dominant first up win in the Liverpool City Cup, but you can leave me out of backing him at $1.80. He’s unbeaten from four first up runs but he’s yet to win second up from three attempts, albeit he was only beaten narrowly last prep in the Silver Eagle. Think he’s the one to beat but can’t back him.

(2) Brutality ran 2^nd to Ellsberg first up and he’s a deadest wet tracker with all six career wins coming on rain-affected ground. Hasn’t won from five attempts when second up from a spell though.

(3) Just Folk is a very interesting runner coming to Sydney after two starts in Melbourne. Trained by Josh Julius at Bendigo, he’s another that relishes the wet ground with four wins and two 2nds from eight starts on rain-affected ground.  Comes out of some strong races behind Marabi and Tofane so should find this easier.

(7) Wairere Falls is thrown in the deep end here by Chris Waller but his past two runs have been very good.

Tip: (1) Ellsberg $1.85 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 2:44pm (AEDT)

(6) Spaceboy might be a strong place bet here first up from a spell. He’s finished in the top two at six of his seven starts when first up and his recent trial was good. Has two wins from four starts on heavy ground so despite finding himself in a strong race, $4.00 for the drum looks a healthy price.

(2) Rule Of Law has taken all before him this prep with five wins from as many starts. He’s yet to tick the heavy track box but he has won four times on soft tracks so I suspect he’ll be OK.

(5) Remarque has been scratched from Melbourne to run here instead which I find interesting. He’s never run on rain-affected ground but he is by Snitzel and they tend to handle the wet. He’s had a throat operation leading into this prep and his trials have been excellent. If he handles the ground he can play a big part.

(10) Gravina found his race first up and he relishes the wet conditions so he’ll be right in the finish again.

(9) Shelby Sixtysix nearly caused a huge upset last start against Eduardo and Nature Strip – he now backs up for the fourth consecutive week.

Tip: (6) Spaceboy (place) $4.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit PLACE Spaceboy

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 3:24pm (AEDT)

Chris Waller has won this race in six of the past seven years, and five of those winners have been fillies coming out of the Surround Stakes. He produces (11) Fangirl here with that identical lead up; she ran 5^th in the Surround last start and will likely use this as a springboard to the Oaks.

(9) Never Been Kissed is the only other runner to come here out of the Surround. She was well beaten but she is a Group 1 winner over the mile and can’t be underestimated in this sort of race.

(4) Cape Breton and (12) Roots are two other Waller runners who resumed with solid victories.

Tip: (11) Fangirl $1.82 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Fangirl

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 4:04pm (AEDT)

(1) Great House was sound resuming in the Parramatta Cup behind Mightybeel, beaten 3.7L into 4^th. Has a good second up record with two wins from three starts and seems to handle all surfaces. Should be very competitive today.

(4) Sky Lab bounced back to his best form first up over 1400m. He makes the jump straight to 2000m which is a slight query but it has been done before with success by Master Of Wine.

(3) Mount Popa and (5) Stockman both drop out of the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes. Toffee Tongue and Tavago are past winners in recent years to have followed the same path with success.

Tip: (1) Great House $5.50 WinnersBet

Also Backing: (4) Sky Lab $4.40 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Great House, 0.5 units WIN Sky Lab

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 4:44pm (AEDT)

The Group 1 Coolmore Classic is typically a hard race for punters, with the past five winners paying double figure odds (four of which were $21+). History also tells us that the Millie Fox Stakes and the Guy Walter Stakes are the form references to look for, but this year we have a couple of three-year-olds in the mix at the top of the market.

You have to go back to 2009 and Typhoon Tracy to find the last three-year-old filly to win this race, so I’m sticking with (6) Expat who resumed with victory in the Millie Fox. She’s now won five of her past six starts and has four wins from five starts on heavy ground. $7.50 looks a very reasonable price.

I think the one at big odds to have something on is the less-fancied Waller runner (2) Polly Grey. I thought her effort first up in the Aspiration Quality was good, having to lump 61kg and give at least 7kg to the rest of the field. She was beaten 4L into 2^nd but she drops 4.5kg today and has a run under the belt. 10 wins and seven placings from 24 starts on wet ground, there’s plenty to like about her and she’s trimmed up from $34 to $23.

(15) Espiona will have plenty of admirers despite being beaten in both starts this preparation. Gets in with 50kg and gets a 2.5kg weight swing on (8) Hinged from their meeting in the Surround Stakes last start.

(12) Promise Of Success finished well in the Guy Walter and gets in with a very winnable weight.

Tip: (6) Expat $7.50 Bet365

Value: (2) Polly Grey $23 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Expat, 0.25 units WIN Polly Grey

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 5:24pm (AEDT)

(11) Taksu was good first up behind Gravina in similar conditions to what he will face today. Did win second up in his first preparation for Joe pride and finds a suitable race today with just 52kg on his back.

(9) Ma And Pa won four of his five starts last preparation and was beaten 0.03L in the one he lost. Heavy track a slight query but has handled soft ground in the three starts he’s had on it.

(14) Sindacto makes his Australian debut for Chris Waller, with William Pike booked to ride with 52.5kg. Has had five starts in New Zealand for two wins and three placings. Both career wins have been over 1400m so might just need one run given he comes into this off just one trial?

(7) Katalin is dynamite fresh with three wins from three starts, but has failed in both starts on heavy ground.

Tip: (11) Taksu $4.20 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 5:59pm (AEDT)

(7) Pale King didn’t get much luck first up in Melbourne and then sat three-wied the trip last start at Canterbury, when beaten 4.4L by Zoumon. It’s been a while since he won but he draws well and with some even luck here he may be able to give a good sight.

(1) Zoumon led and won well at Canterbury last start, following a decent fresh run over the shorter trip. Always wary of horses that lead and win at Canterbury who then come to a Saturday at Rosehill or Randwick. Is undefeated on heavy ground though.

(1) Mr Gee is undefeated over this distance and comes into this after a good last-start win. Draws wide so will be back near last again but he’s capable.

(14) Benaud can improve third up and (4) Not Usual Glorious comes here from Adelaide in search of the heavy track.

Tip: (7) Pale King $7.50 Moneyball

Betting Strategy: No bet