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Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, March 12th

Tim Geers previews the 10-race card at Rosehill on Saturday, featuring the G1 Coolmore Classic.

Expat-Rosehill

The Group 1 Coolmore Classic headlines racing at Rosehill in New South Wales this Saturday, March 12th.

The $600,000 feature for the fillies and mares is supported by a further four Group 3s and two Group 2s on the 10-race card.

The track is currently rated a Heavy 9 with the rail in the true position.

Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card below with his tips and best bets.

Best Bet: Race 3 – (3) Magic

Best Value: Race 8 – (6) Expat & (2) Polly Grey

Moneyball

211310

Race 1

Midway (Bm72) (1200m)
12:20pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Midway (Bm72) (1200m)
12:20pm (AEDT)

1. Invincible Kiss (10) J: Reece Jones (59.5kg) T: Wayne Seelin
161617.2
2. Oakfield Twilight (2) J: Aaron Bullock (59.5kg) T: D Lane
192016.8
3. Lord Heron (4) J: Tom Sherry (58kg) T: Allan Kehoe
111112.2
4. Dalaalaat (14) J: Jason Collett (57.5kg) T: Nathan Doyle
4.54.64.65
5. Lord Zoulander (3) J: Brenton Avdulla (57.5kg) T: G Portelli
121210.2
6. Epic Dan (11) J: Tyler Schiller (57kg) T: G D Hickman
111111.6
7. Holy Reign (9) J: Jay Ford (57kg) T: Ms K Waugh
343426.5
8. Two Up (7) J: Chris Williams (57kg) T: D I Atkins
9.59.58.3
9. Esteemed Lady (5) J: Ms Rachel King (55.5kg) T: Ms G Markwell
555.1
10. Rumpshaker (12) J: Jean Van Overmeire (55.5kg) T: Nick Mitchell
161513.6
11. Bob's Your Uncle (13) J: Ms Amy Mclucas (55kg) T: Craig Carmody
121210.2
12. Defeat (8) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54kg) T: T J Bartley
212119
13. Pindarra's Dream (6) J: Ms Louise Day (54kg) T: Ms T Bateup
313432
14. Magic Talent (1) J: Robbie Dolan (52kg) T: M & D Kearney
201921.5

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 12:24pm (AEDT)

(6) Epic Dan is proven in these conditions and after two runs back, he might be ready to do something now. He’s got three wins and two placings from eight starts at this stage of his preparation and he was beaten less than 2L last start.

(4) Dalaalaat resumes on a heavy track which is some query, but on best form he’d be very competitive in this. Does have a very good fresh record.

(10) Rumpshaker next best at double figure odds. Include in numbers.

Tip: (6) Epic Dan $11 Moneyball

Betting Strategy: No bet

211310

Race 2

Cellarbrations Magic Night Stk (1200m)
12:55pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Cellarbrations Magic Night Stk (1200m)
12:55pm (AEDT)

1. Queen Of The Ball (5) J: Brett Prebble (55.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
3.73.63.35
2. She's Extreme (11) J: Tommy Berry (55.5kg) T: A J Cummings
2.72.65
3. Moko (7) J: (55.5kg) T: A & S Freedman
4. Celestial Spirit (4) J: Tim Clark (55.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
141511.8
5. Magic Carpet (1) J: Ms Rachel King (55.5kg) T: James Cummings
191819.2
6. Miss Faberge (2) J: Keagan Latham (55.5kg) T: J G Sargent
99.59.6
7. Atoine (8) J: Brenton Avdulla (55.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
414143
8. Winnertakesitall (9) J: Regan Bayliss (55.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
131210.8
9. Fun Sunday (10) J: Tom Sherry (55.5kg) T: Brad Widdup
151151111
10. Swift Sweet (12) J: Sam Clipperton (55.5kg) T: Mark Newnham
121212.2
11. Yankee Hussel (6) J: Chad Schofield (55.5kg) T: K A Lees
343436
12. Regal Inheritance (13) J: Jason Collett (55.5kg) T: G Portelli
343436
13. Seiryu (3) J: William Pike (55.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
151415.6

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 12:59pm (AEDT)

(1) Queen Of The Ball bolted in two starts ago in the Widden Stakes before starting $2.25 against the boys in the Silver Slipper. Only managed 5th there beaten 2L and I expect them to go back to riding her aggressively to lead here If they can. Whether the soft track brought her undone last start is the big issue given it will be heavy here.

(2) She’s Extreme finished hard in the Sweet Embrace Stakes on the Heavy 10 last start and was only beaten 0.75L on the line. Draws wide so will be giving them a head start again but will be flashing home.

(8) Winnertakesitall bumped into Sweet Ride on debut in the Black Opal preview at Canberra. Not the worst form here.

(13) Seiryu failed on debut in the Blue Diamond Prelude for the fillies but has won a trial since then and gets the winkers on.

Tip: (8) Winnertakesitall $13 Sportsbet

Value: (13) Seiryu $16 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

211310

Race 3

Bowermans Pago Pago Stakes (1200m)
1:30pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Bowermans Pago Pago Stakes (1200m)
1:30pm (AEDT)

1. Sweet Ride (2) J: Jean Van Overmeire (55.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
4.854.65
2. Rise Of The Masses (4) J: Tim Clark (55.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
666.1
3. Magic (3) J: William Pike (55.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
2.32.22.15
4. Wealthy Investor (6) J: Brett Prebble (55.5kg) T: D Lane
262626.5
5. Williamsburg (13) J: Brenton Avdulla (55.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
121212.2
6. Nipotino (7) J: Regan Bayliss (55.5kg) T: John Thompson
191819.2
7. Cool Amigo (9) J: (55.5kg) T: T R Martin
8. Nolan (12) J: Chad Schofield (55.5kg) T: J A O'shea
343126
9. Peace Officer (1) J: Jason Collett (55.5kg) T: C E Conners
161614.6
10. Standing Order (10) J: Tommy Berry (55.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
262627.5
11. Brosnan (5) J: Brenton Avdulla (55.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
12. Kote (8) J: Glyn Schofield (55.5kg) T: A J Cummings
414143
13. Custodian (11) J: Sam Clipperton (55.5kg) T: A & S Freedman
131313.2

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 1:34pm (AEDT)

It was hard to miss the debut of (3) Magic in the Silver Slipper Stakes behind best Of Bordeaux. He settled back in the field and was basically last at the 300m mark before flashing home between runners in the final 100m to get within 0.6L of the winner. The step up to 1200m should really suit him and so long as he handles the heavy track, I think he’ll be winning.

(13) Custodian has been set to debut for a number of weeks now but has been scratched every time (maybe trying to dodge the wet tracks?). Won his only trial back on the 17th February and I’d be respecting a colt from the Anthony and Sam Freedman stable.

(1) Sweet Ride was dominant on debut before finishing 5th in the Inglis Millennium. Then went to the Black Opal Preview at Canberra and bolted in. Draws well to lead and will be very hard to run down.

(2) Rise Of The Masses next best after two placings from his past two starts.

Tip: (3) Magic $2.30 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Magic

211310

Race 4

Hyland Race Colours Ajax Stks (1500m)
2:05pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Hyland Race Colours Ajax Stks (1500m)
2:05pm (AEDT)

1. Ellsberg (8) J: Tim Clark (59kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
1.81.851.78
2. Brutality (2) J: Jay Ford (56kg) T: Joseph Pride
4.54.64.65
3. Just Folk (1) J: Jason Collett (55.5kg) T: Joshua Julius
76.57.6
4. Atishu (7) J: Regan Bayliss (54kg) T: Chris Waller
5. Kiku (3) J: Brenton Avdulla (54kg) T: C J Waller
9.59.57.9
6. Blue Soldier (5) J: Tom Sherry (54kg) T: David Payne
11129.2
7. Wairere Falls (4) J: Brett Prebble (54kg) T: C J Waller
131011.2
8. Jalmari (6) J: William Pike (53kg) T: D A Williams
10110195

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 2:09pm (AEDT)

(1) Ellsberg rates as the horse to beat after a dominant first up win in the Liverpool City Cup, but you can leave me out of backing him at $1.80. He’s unbeaten from four first up runs but he’s yet to win second up from three attempts, albeit he was only beaten narrowly last prep in the Silver Eagle. Think he’s the one to beat but can’t back him.

(2) Brutality ran 2nd to Ellsberg first up and he’s a deadest wet tracker with all six career wins coming on rain-affected ground. Hasn’t won from five attempts when second up from a spell though.

(3) Just Folk is a very interesting runner coming to Sydney after two starts in Melbourne. Trained by Josh Julius at Bendigo, he’s another that relishes the wet ground with four wins and two 2nds from eight starts on rain-affected ground.  Comes out of some strong races behind Marabi and Tofane so should find this easier.

(7) Wairere Falls is thrown in the deep end here by Chris Waller but his past two runs have been very good.

Tip: (1) Ellsberg $1.85 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

211310

Race 5

Tatts Group Maurice Mccarten (1100m)
2:40pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Tatts Group Maurice Mccarten (1100m)
2:40pm (AEDT)

1. Gem Song (10) J: Chad Schofield (59kg) T: K A Lees
413433
2. Rule Of Law (3) J: Tim Clark (55kg) T: Bjorn Baker
2.72.72.55
3. Prime Star (8) J: Ms Rachel King (54kg) T: R & M Freedman
151516.4
4. Dream Circle (7) J: Tom Sherry (54kg) T: David Payne
181716.2
5. Remarque (9) J: William Pike (53kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
554.6
6. Spaceboy (4) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (53kg) T: G Portelli
181717.4
7. The Face (6) J: Jay Ford (53kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
8. Glistening (2) J: Jean Van Overmeire (53kg) T: R & M Freedman
9. Shelby Sixtysix (1) J: Tommy Berry (53kg) T: D A Williams
6.566.6
10. Gravina (5) J: Sam Clipperton (53kg) T: James Cummings
3.63.53.65

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 2:44pm (AEDT)

(6) Spaceboy might be a strong place bet here first up from a spell. He’s finished in the top two at six of his seven starts when first up and his recent trial was good. Has two wins from four starts on heavy ground so despite finding himself in a strong race, $4.00 for the drum looks a healthy price.

(2) Rule Of Law has taken all before him this prep with five wins from as many starts. He’s yet to tick the heavy track box but he has won four times on soft tracks so I suspect he’ll be OK.

(5) Remarque has been scratched from Melbourne to run here instead which I find interesting. He’s never run on rain-affected ground but he is by Snitzel and they tend to handle the wet. He’s had a throat operation leading into this prep and his trials have been excellent. If he handles the ground he can play a big part.

(10) Gravina found his race first up and he relishes the wet conditions so he’ll be right in the finish again.

(9) Shelby Sixtysix nearly caused a huge upset last start against Eduardo and Nature Strip – he now backs up for the fourth consecutive week.

Tip: (6) Spaceboy (place) $4.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit PLACE Spaceboy

211310

Race 6

Chandon Phar Lap Stakes (1500m)
3:20pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Chandon Phar Lap Stakes (1500m)
3:20pm (AEDT)

1. Extreme Flight (14) J: Tim Clark (56.5kg) T: A & S Freedman
171718
2. Mr Mozart (12) J: William Pike (56.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
121210.4
3. Silent Impact (9) J: Tim Clark (56.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
4. Cape Breton (8) J: Brett Prebble (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
151515
5. Character (3) J: Jason Collett (56.5kg) T: James Cummings
191917
6. Gracilistyla (6) J: Chad Schofield (56.5kg) T: Chris Waller
7. Son Of Sangio (10) J: Keagan Latham (56.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
262620.5
8. Hinged (2) J: Brenton Avdulla (54.5kg) T: Chris Waller
9. Never Been Kissed (1) J: Regan Bayliss (54.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
8.58.58
10. Espiona (11) J: Tommy Berry (54.5kg) T: Chris Waller
11. Fangirl (7) J: Tommy Berry (54.5kg) T: C J Waller
1.81.81.82
12. Roots (5) J: Brenton Avdulla (54.5kg) T: C J Waller
5.565.6
13. Cap Estel (13) J: (54.5kg) T: Anthony Cummings
14. Sanstoc (4) J: Tom Sherry (54.5kg) T: Mark Newnham
202017

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 3:24pm (AEDT)

Chris Waller has won this race in six of the past seven years, and five of those winners have been fillies coming out of the Surround Stakes. He produces (11) Fangirl here with that identical lead up; she ran 5th in the Surround last start and will likely use this as a springboard to the Oaks.

(9) Never Been Kissed is the only other runner to come here out of the Surround. She was well beaten but she is a Group 1 winner over the mile and can’t be underestimated in this sort of race.

(4) Cape Breton and (12) Roots are two other Waller runners who resumed with solid victories.

Tip: (11) Fangirl $1.82 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Fangirl

211310

Race 7

Furphy Sky High Stakes (2000m)
4:00pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Furphy Sky High Stakes (2000m)
4:00pm (AEDT)

1. Great House (1) J: Chad Schofield (55.5kg) T: C J Waller
5.55.54.9
2. Spirit Ridge (9) J: Tom Sherry (55.5kg) T: Mark Newnham
181714.6
3. Mount Popa (4) J: William Pike (55kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
443.8
4. Sky Lab (3) J: Keagan Latham (55kg) T: P M Perry
4.23.84.45
5. Stockman (5) J: Sam Clipperton (55kg) T: Joseph Pride
5.565.5
6. Torrens (10) J: Kathy O'Hara (55kg) T: Marc Chevalier
7. Toomuchtobear (7) J: Regan Bayliss (55kg) T: C J Waller
9.59.58.2
8. Alakahan (2) J: Tommy Berry (55kg) T: R & M Freedman
15110191
9. Savvy Valentino (8) J: Ms Rachel King (55kg) T: Bjorn Baker
191817.8
10. Le Baol (6) J: Jason Collett (55kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
77.58.1

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 4:04pm (AEDT)

(1) Great House was sound resuming in the Parramatta Cup behind Mightybeel, beaten 3.7L into 4th. Has a good second up record with two wins from three starts and seems to handle all surfaces. Should be very competitive today.

(4) Sky Lab bounced back to his best form first up over 1400m. He makes the jump straight to 2000m which is a slight query but it has been done before with success by Master Of Wine.

(3) Mount Popa and (5) Stockman both drop out of the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes. Toffee Tongue and Tavago are past winners in recent years to have followed the same path with success.

Tip: (1) Great House $5.50 WinnersBet

Also Backing: (4) Sky Lab $4.40 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Great House, 0.5 units WIN Sky Lab

211310

Race 8

Coolmore Classic (1500m)
4:40pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Coolmore Classic (1500m)
4:40pm (AEDT)

1. Krone (3) J: Chad Schofield (58kg) T: T J Gollan
202021.5
2. Polly Grey (1) J: Brenton Avdulla (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
212117.2
3. Vangelic (17) J: Tim Clark (56.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
262619
4. Lighthouse (6) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
6.56.56.6
5. Shout The Bar (15) J: Regan Bayliss (56kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
817155
6. Expat (10) J: Tom Sherry (54kg) T: Mark Newnham
6.566.5
7. Wandabaa (7) J: Tommy Berry (53.5kg) T: K A Lees
131212
8. Hinged (12) J: William Pike (52.5kg) T: C J Waller
87.58.1
9. Atishu (9) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (52kg) T: C J Waller
212119.4
10. Le Lude (14) J: (51.5kg) T: John P Thompson
11. Mirra Vision (16) J: Sam Clipperton (51.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
212118
12. Promise Of Success (13) J: Ms Rachel King (51kg) T: J A O'shea
6.56.56.6
13. Kiku (11) J: (51kg) T: Chris Waller
14. Yes Baby Yes (2) J: Tyler Schiller (51kg) T: L & T Corstens
10110175
15. Espiona (4) J: Jay Ford (50kg) T: C J Waller
3.73.63.75
16. Fangirl (5) J: Kathy O'Hara (50kg) T: Chris Waller
17. Cap Estel (8) J: Quayde Krogh (50kg) T: A J Cummings
717173

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 4:44pm (AEDT)

The Group 1 Coolmore Classic is typically a hard race for punters, with the past five winners paying double figure odds (four of which were $21+). History also tells us that the Millie Fox Stakes and the Guy Walter Stakes are the form references to look for, but this year we have a couple of three-year-olds in the mix at the top of the market.

You have to go back to 2009 and Typhoon Tracy to find the last three-year-old filly to win this race, so I’m sticking with (6) Expat who resumed with victory in the Millie Fox. She’s now won five of her past six starts and has four wins from five starts on heavy ground. $7.50 looks a very reasonable price.

I think the one at big odds to have something on is the less-fancied Waller runner (2) Polly Grey. I thought her effort first up in the Aspiration Quality was good, having to lump 61kg and give at least 7kg to the rest of the field. She was beaten 4L into 2nd but she drops 4.5kg today and has a run under the belt. 10 wins and seven placings from 24 starts on wet ground, there’s plenty to like about her and she’s trimmed up from $34 to $23.

(15) Espiona will have plenty of admirers despite being beaten in both starts this preparation. Gets in with 50kg and gets a 2.5kg weight swing on (8) Hinged from their meeting in the Surround Stakes last start.

(12) Promise Of Success finished well in the Guy Walter and gets in with a very winnable weight.

Tip: (6) Expat $7.50 Bet365

Value: (2) Polly Grey $23 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Expat, 0.25 units WIN Polly Grey

211310

Race 9

Vale Alan Brown Am (Bm88) (1350m)
5:20pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Vale Alan Brown Am (Bm88) (1350m)
5:20pm (AEDT)

1. Wairere Falls (7) J: Chad Schofield (59.5kg) T: Chris Waller
2. Dream Circle (10) J: Glyn Schofield (59kg) T: David Payne
3. Inanup (3) J: Reece Jones (59kg) T: Bjorn Baker
262623
4. Poetic Charmer (11) J: Tommy Berry (59kg) T: P & P Snowden
121210
5. Matowatakpe (9) J: Ms Rachel King (58.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
161615.6
6. New Arrangement (14) J: Brenton Avdulla (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
171713.6
7. Katalin (1) J: Tim Clark (57kg) T: James Cummings
65.55.3
8. Gone Bye (13) J: Tom Sherry (56.5kg) T: Mark Newnham
212619.8
9. Ma And Pa (8) J: Brett Prebble (56kg) T: C J Waller
66.56.6
10. Soami (4) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54kg) T: M J Dunn
131314.2
11. Taksu (5) J: Tyler Schiller (54kg) T: Joseph Pride
4.244.2
12. Marsabit (12) J: Jason Collett (54kg) T: David Payne
10110185
13. Astero (2) J: Jay Ford (52.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
9.599.6
14. Sindacato (6) J: William Pike (52.5kg) T: C J Waller
5.565.6

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 5:24pm (AEDT)

(11) Taksu was good first up behind Gravina in similar conditions to what he will face today. Did win second up in his first preparation for Joe pride and finds a suitable race today with just 52kg on his back.

(9) Ma And Pa won four of his five starts last preparation and was beaten 0.03L in the one he lost. Heavy track a slight query but has handled soft ground in the three starts he’s had on it.

(14) Sindacto makes his Australian debut for Chris Waller, with William Pike booked to ride with 52.5kg. Has had five starts in New Zealand for two wins and three placings. Both career wins have been over 1400m so might just need one run given he comes into this off just one trial?

(7) Katalin is dynamite fresh with three wins from three starts, but has failed in both starts on heavy ground.

Tip: (11) Taksu $4.20 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

211310

Race 10

Cerrone (Bm78) (1900m)
5:55pm (AEDT)

Race 10

Cerrone (Bm78) (1900m)
5:55pm (AEDT)

1. Mr Gee (15) J: Reece Jones (61kg) T: J A O'shea
109.511.2
2. Canasta (4) J: Brenton Avdulla (60.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
171713.6
3. Silent Agenda (9) J: Tyler Schiller (59.5kg) T: Joseph Pride
414130
4. Not Usual Glorious (6) J: Brett Prebble (59kg) T: Travis Doudle
212626.5
5. Rousseau (18) J: Tommy Berry (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
7.576.4
6. Flambeur (13) J: Jason Collett (57.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
343136
7. Pale King (3) J: William Pike (56.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
77.56.3
8. Agnelli (12) J: Chad Schofield (56kg) T: Chris Waller
9. Unamerican (7) J: Keagan Latham (56kg) T: R & M Freedman
818157
10. Military Mission (2) J: Regan Bayliss (55.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
11. The Guru (11) J: Sam Clipperton (55.5kg) T: Ms T Bateup
212122.5
12. Zoumon (5) J: Tim Clark (55kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
3.83.73.9
13. Arnaqueur (19) J: Tom Sherry (54kg) T: Jean Dubois
14. Benaud (1) J: Ms Rachel King (52.5kg) T: J A O'shea
8.58.57.1
15. Olympic Gaze (14) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54kg) T: P M Perry
514139
16. Forever You (10) J: Jay Ford (52kg) T: Annabel Neasham
65.57.1
17. Main Stage (16) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Ms G Markwell
191817.8
18. Avion Fury (17) J: Unknown (54kg) T: I B Finn
615141
19. Roman (8) J: Quayde Krogh (52kg) T: B Joseph & P & M Jones
414143

Odds Last Updated: March 12, 2022, 5:59pm (AEDT)

(7) Pale King didn’t get much luck first up in Melbourne and then sat three-wied the trip last start at Canterbury, when beaten 4.4L by Zoumon. It’s been a while since he won but he draws well and with some even luck here he may be able to give a good sight.

(1) Zoumon led and won well at Canterbury last start, following a decent fresh run over the shorter trip. Always wary of horses that lead and win at Canterbury who then come to a Saturday at Rosehill or Randwick. Is undefeated on heavy ground though.

(1) Mr Gee is undefeated over this distance and comes into this after a good last-start win. Draws wide so will be back near last again but he’s capable.

(14) Benaud can improve third up and (4) Not Usual Glorious comes here from Adelaide in search of the heavy track.

Tip: (7) Pale King $7.50 Moneyball

Betting Strategy: No bet

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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