Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, March 13th

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 12:36pm (AEDT)

Hoping to start with a bang here at Rosehill with (4) Great House as my best bet of the day. He was my best bet last start when he went back from a wide barrier and ran home strongly into 3^rd, beaten 0.6L. He loomed into the race at the 200m mark like the winner, but just peaked on his run the final furlong. He was a month between runs on that occasion, so he should strip fitter for that run and he gets a stack off gear changes today. The blinkers go on for the first time, as does the off-side bubble cheeker, and finally the pre-race ear muffs. The blinkers should sharpen him up and the bubble cheeker is used to straighten him up, as he hung inwards under pressure last start. He bolted in two starts ago over a similar distance at this track and that was in this grade, so if he can sit a pair or two closer from barrier 6, he should be awfully hard to beat.

The stablemate (6) Welsh Legend looks the danger at $6.50 with James McDonald booked to ride. She comes into this third up from a spell and ready to win after a good effort last start at Canterbury. She doesn’t win out of turn though, with just two victories from 22 career starts. One of those did come third up though.

(7) Toscanini is flying but rises in grade and draws wide.

(9) Crimson Ace has two wins from three starts when second up from a spell and brings Melbourne form to the race. Can’t completely dismiss.

Tip: (4) Great House $2.15 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Great House

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 1:11pm (AEDT)

(2) Arcaded looks to set the benchmark here coming out of the Blue Diamond in Melbourne, but she’s hard to trust after flopping in the Group 1 last start. Prior to that she was very impressive in her first two career starts, winning both dominantly, but she only beat three home in the Diamond, so what shape does she come here in? We’ve seen the Diamond form franked through the likes of Anamoe, and if she is to bring her best she’ll probably win, but at $2.50 I’m happy to just sit out and watch.

(5) Jamaea was relatively firm in betting in the Sweet Embrace Stakes and may have had one or two small excuses. She wasn’t beaten far and gets a big jockey change with Tommy Berry taking over from Brock Ryan today.

(4) Robodira was first up in that same race and ran OK in 4^th. Drawn well here and can improve so has to be considered.

(6) Latino Blend steps up sharply in grade off a Newcastle win and the from hasn’t been great out of that race, but I respect the Snowdens bringing her here rather than taking an easier path.

Tip: (2) Arcaded $2.55 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 1:46pm (AEDT)

(2) Ingratiating is sure to be popular here, coming off a 2^nd placing to Artorius in the Blue Diamond. We saw Anamoe run 3^rd in that race and the come to Sydney and win impressively, so if Ingratiating replicates his form from Melbourne, he’ll be hard to toss here.

(6) Hilal arguably should be two from two so far but he just had things go against him last start. It was a very slowly run race and the leaders skipped away with it, while Hilal got back in the field and then struck interference in the straight. He’s on an upward curve while Ingratiating has possibly had his grand final already. He draws terribly in barrier 13 but I’m going to stick with him to win this.

(5) Tiger Of Malay gets the blinkers on for the first time and didn’t get everything go his way first up.

(1) Shaquero was ordinary last start but he was six weeks between runs on that occasion and can improve.

Tip: (6) Hilal $4.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Hilal

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 2:21pm (AEDT)

Track conditions will be crucial here because on a wet deck, (4) Colette looks a moral, but on a Good track she could be the lay of the day. She was dominant first up in the Apollo Stakes and was very brave in defeat behind Verry Elleegant in the Chipping Norton Stakes last time out. Those were both run on wet ground, which she’s won five of her six starts on. She’s only won one from seven on Good ground though, and there’s a few capable horses in the field which may be able to roll her on a firm track.

(3) The Chosen One ran 4^th in last year’s Melbourne Cup and was good first up in New Zealand over this distance, finishing 2^nd. He can mix his form a bit but if he were to bring his best, he’d give the favourite a good run for her money.

(6) Spirit Ridge steps up in grade but has three wins and two 2nds from five starts in Australia.

(5) Toffee Tongue has been ordinary in her first two runs back from a spell but can improve third up.

Tip: (4) Colette $1.65 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 2:56pm (AEDT)

Just going to bank on the fact (5) California Zimbol is the best horse in the race here. She’s won at Group 3 level and is a dual Listed winner and gets in well with 54kg on her back. I concede she may be better second up from a spell, but off two trials she should be forward enough to be very hard to beat here.

(9) Wandabaa goes like a bomb fresh, winning 3/3 first up from a spell. If California Zimbol isn’t tuned up for this, Wandabaa is probably the horse to beat. She’s good on any surface and goes well at the distance, and Jason Collett gets down to 53.5kg to ride her.

(2) Order Of Command will really appreciate the rain coming, and if the track is in the soft range, expect a big run fresh. He’s without a public trial leading into this but that’s not uncommon for him. He goes well fresh and Danny O’Brien runners should always be respected, especially with JMac booked to ride.

If the rain really arrives before this race, (1) Jungle Edge almost becomes the horse to beat.

Tip: (5) California Zimbol $3.30 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN California Zimbol

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 3:36pm (AEDT)

Tricky race the Phar Lap Stakes. Something to note is that Chris Waller has won five of the last six editions of this race, all with fillies. His sole runner this year is (6) Hungry Heart, who comes out of the same races as most of his other runners that have won this. She was OK first up in the Light Fingers, and then just fair again last start in the Surround Stakes. She might want a firmer track but third up, I’ll give her one more chance with the knowledge that Waller knows how to get horses to win this race. JMac also sticks with her.

(1) Poland comes off a smart win in the Angus Armanasco Stakes in Melbourne first up. Amish Boy and It’sourtime were behind him that day and they’ve both run well since. He draws to get the gun run from barrier 1 and should be competitive.

(2) Embolism was beaten less than a length in the G1 Australian Guineas and third up should be peaking.

(3) The Irishman won on Australian debut. He should come on from that run and has won on heavy ground before so the rain won’t worry him if it arrives.

(9) Impecunious was outstanding winning on Australian debut and was desperately unlucky last start. She gets bandages on for the first time here which is a query.

Tip: (6) Hungry Heart $4.60 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Hungry Heart

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 4:16pm (AEDT)

The G1 Coolmore Classic traditionally has been a very hard race for punters. The past five winners of this race have started $21, $21, $21, $26 and $15. The races that are often the best lead up races are the Guy Walter Stakes and the Millie Fox Stakes, so with all that in mind I’m actually pretty keen on a few at odds here.

(5) Subpoenaed was terrific first up over 1300m in the Millie Fox Stakes and she should only be better suited second up at 1500m. She’s always promised plenty and this might be the prep that she really delivers. She can handle the firm ground or rain-affected ground, gets a good draw and won one of the two lead up races that you tend to look for with the Coolmore Classic. At $12 she goes on top.

(4) Madam Rouge is the stablemate and she ran 2^nd to Subpoenaed first up in the Millie Fox, where she definitely should have finished closer. She was held up for a run while Subpoenaed just got a perfect tow into the race and was able to build momentum. She was 3L off Savatiano in the G1 Canterbury Stakes last weekend, now drops back to mares grade on the one-week backup and JMac sticks with. She’s never run a place from five starts when third up from a spell but I’m trusting Waller to have her right for this. I think she’s way over the odds but probably doesn’t want it too wet.

(3) Krone is also over the odds for a horse that won the Guy Walter Stakes with ease last start. The track condition is all important for her because she really needs it wet. She’s OK on good ground but definitely better on wet ground. She had the like soft Tricky Gal and Icebath covered in that race and I don’t think there’s much to suggest they can turn the tables if the track is wet again. Barrier 1 is tricky for her but at $18 she’s a bet.

The favourite is (9) Forbidden Love at $5.00 and I just can’t have her that short. She was utterly dominant in the Surround Stakes but the last three-year-old to win this was Typhoon Tracy back in 2009 and she carried 51kg when doing so. Forbidden Love has to carry 54kg here so I actually don’t think she’s that well placed.

(11) All Saints’ Eve was good first up and is undefeated second up. I highly respect her but I just don’t know if the Liverpool City Cup is the form reference to be with here.

(15) Dame Giselle has to be considered if the track is Good. She started favourite in the Surround Stakes, which was won by Forbidden Love. That was on an unsuitable wet track, and now she’s $26. She goes considerably better on firm ground so if the rain doesn’t come, she can definitely be included.

Tip: (5) Subpoenaed $12 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Madam Rouge $19 & (3) Krone $18 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Subpoenaed, 1 unit WIN Madam Rouge, 0.5 units WIN Krone

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 5:01pm (AEDT)

Interesting race set up here. (7) Buffalo River should find the front and run them along. JMac goes on and if the rain comes, he’s going to be hard to run down as all his best form has been in the wet. I expect they’ll be trying to steal it from the front but once again, track conditions are important. The query for him is he’s been beaten at $2.70, $4.80, $7.50, $4.00, $4.80 and $2.70 in his past six starts.

(11) Criaderas will likely be near last and doing the chasing. He was huge first up when settling last and charging home late to be beaten a nose. If they make any use at all of barrier 1 here, he should be winning, and it would be great to see them try to be a little bit more positive from that low draw.

There are a few at big odds that are a chance of causing an upset.

(1) Mister Sea Wolf has had three trials to get him fit for this first up run. He did win a Doncaster Prelude first up over this track and distance at the start of last year, so he’s more than capable of pulling it off. He’s got three wins and two placings from five starts at the track and distance and he’s good on any track conditions, so if a positive market move comes, expect him to be very competitive.

(5) I Am Superman was ridden poorly first up, wide without cover at Flemington. He started favourite there and was only beaten a touch over 2L. His run was good and he did win first up last prep in Melbourne before coming to Sydney and winning at G2 level over this track and distance. I think he’s a very good chance here.

(10) Looks Like Elvis was a terrific run first up in defeat. He has a good second up record and can be thereabouts at big odds.

Tip: (11) Criaderas $2.80 Bet365

Also Backing: (5) I Am Superman $11 Bet365

Value: (1) Mister Sea Wolf $16 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Criaderas, 0.5 units WIN I Am Superman, 0.5 units WIN Mister Sea Wolf

Odds Last Updated: March 13, 2021, 5:41pm (AEDT)

(14) Bound To Win was huge first up, coming from well back in the field to storm home into 2^nd, beaten 0.2L. Her trials leading into that run were very good and she’s won two of her three starts when second up, so with any luck from barrier 1, she should go very close.

(8) Lina’s Hero was ridden particularly negatively first up but gets a better draw here so should sit closer. He’s won three from five when second up and gets a jockey change today, so no surprise to see him go close.

(5) Holyfield is undefeated at the track and distance and is a Group 3 winner resuming in a BM88 against the older horses. Tactics will be interesting first up from barrier 12. If they are positive with him, he can give some cheek at double figure odds.

(6) Starspangled Rodeo jumped to the front last start in a change of tactics, and it proved the winning move, leading all the way. Will be competitive again.

Tip: (14) Bound To Win $6.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Bound To Win