Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, November 6th

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2021, 12:59pm (AEDT)

Not exactly a great start to the card this, a 2400m BM78.

Going to side with the two Chris Waller runners here. (2) Fortified was a horse I was keen to back last week but he was saved for this week instead. He was unlucky in his latest run at Canterbury, held up at a crucial stage of the straight. Should have finished closer and looks to be coming back into form.

(4) Suppression comes off a Class 1 win in Victoria, which doesn’t look the strongest form, but he should only improve with the step up in distance. Tommy Berry is booked for the ride so you would think it could be Waller’s top seed.

Happy to play small on both but not getting too heavily involved.

Tip: (2) Fortified $6.50 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Suppression $4.40 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Fortified, 0.5 units WIN Suppression

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2021, 1:39pm (AEDT)

(12) Schiller’s Myst is the least experienced and least exposed horse in the field, having had just four starts. She ran home strongly into 4th first up, before winning last start over the mile. The drop back in distance here is a slight query but she appears hard to beat.

(7) So Say You is always around the mark in these sorts of races but just struggles to get her head in front. She did win one of these five starts ago and hasn’t been beaten far in every run since then. Tommy Berry goes on board today in a positive jockey change.

(3) Chestnut Scaffa has won three of its last four starts and this stable are astute with bringing their runners to Highway Handicaps.

(6) Sizzling Cat next best.

Tip: (12) Schiller's Myst $5.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2021, 2:19pm (AEDT)

(1) Mayfair Spirit won two starts ago over this distance and then ran 2nd to Ruby Tuesday when dropping back to the mile last start. Ruby Tuesday went to Melbourne and was competitive, and the step back up to 1800m will suit Mayfair Spirit today.

(3) Jazzland ran 2nd to Shibli first up at Gosford and meets that horse 4kg better off at the weights for a 0.4L defeat, so can turn the tables today. It’s been a long time between drinks though, 69 weeks in fact.

(4) Shibli just gets the gun run from barrier 2 and had excuses when pulling up with a slow recovery after failing as favourite last start.

Tip: (1) Mayfair Spirit $4.60 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mayfair Spirit

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2021, 2:59pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on (4) Seleque first up here. She has a good fresh record with two wins and a 2nd from three starts, and I was going to back her last weekend but she was scratched in favour of this week. Handles all track conditions, gets Tommy Berry on and finds a nice race to kick off in.

(3) Amiche is a bit of an unknown here. All her form has been in Queensland and now she resumes in Sydney for new trainer Edward Cummings, having formerly been trained by David Vandyke. She has four wins and four placings from nine starts so she’s going to run a good race, I just don’t quite know how good she is.

(2) Undeniable is racing in great form, with two wins and a 2nd from her past three starts. Probably bumps into a couple of smart ones here but she is race fit and in form.

Tip: (4) Seleque $3.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Seleque

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2021, 3:39pm (AEDT)

No idea with this race, the Country Classic.

(10) Five Kingdom ran 3rd first up and hasn’t had much luck in its past two starts. Drawn awkwardly in barrier 16 with the 3kg apprentice on board but the form behind Ruby Tuesday reads well.

(2) Dream Runner has four consecutive placings leading into this and soft ground will help. Will need some luck at a crucial stage.

The form here is foreign to me so will be sitting out.

Tip: (10) Five Kingdom $8.50 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2021, 4:14pm (AEDT)

(4) Pandora Blueis in flying form, with four wins from six career starts. Comes off a win in a similar race to this and if she can get across from the gate without using too much fuel, she’ll be tough to run down again.

(1) Travest has talent on his day and his best form would be very competitive but first up with 60kg from barrier 13 makes things tough.

(2) Saquon gets his favoured soft track conditions here but I’m just not convinced he’s going as well this preparation as he was last time in.

Tip: (4) Pandora Blue $3.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2021, 4:54pm (AEDT)

(1) Sejardan won the Breeders’ Plate impressively on debut, and that was after being examined by the vet behind the gates. The wide draw is a bit tricky but he won from barrier 10 on debut and showed a blistering turn of foot to do so. Think he’s the horse to beat again.

(2) Nobel was luckless on debut at Moonee Valley in the Inglis Banner. He settled back in the field and ran into traffic. Hard to know how that form holds up here but he’s clearly got some ability.

(5) Shalatin was terrific on debut in the Kirkham Plate. He went back from barrier 12 and flew home between runners in the straight, all while racing a bit greenly. If he can settle closer from the gate today, he’ll take some beating.

Tip: (1) Sejardan $4.40 Bet365

Value: (2) Nobel $7.00 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2021, 5:29pm (AEDT)

(1) Rocha Clock should be ready now third up from a spell. She didn’t get much luck first up in The Nivison and then ran 2nd in The Invitation last start. Has never finished outside the top two from four starts when third up from a spell and should be hard to beat.

(6) Tricky Gal was huge first up when flashing home behind Minhaaj in The Nivison. Didn’t get clear running at all in The Invitation last start so forgive her for that. I think her best runs are normally when she’s first up which is the concern but she has a terrific record on soft tracks and can win with even luck.

(10) Faschanel is a complete blowout chance here. They rode her cold first up rather than send her forward.

(2) Polly Grey and (3) Nudge chances.

Tip: (1) Rocha Clock $4.20 Bet365

Saver: (6) Tricky Gal $6.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Rocha Clock, 0.5 units WIN Tricky Gal

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2021, 6:14pm (AEDT)

(2) El Mo started big odds first up and ran last, but that was after sitting wide, overracing and pulling up 2/5 lame. He’s unbeaten second up from a spell with three wins from as many starts. May be cooked but he’s a big price to find out.

(4) Blaze A Trail was stretched out to 2000m last preparation but resumes over the sprinting journey first up here. Has looked sharp in two trials and Tommy Berry is booked, so he ticks boxes.

(8) Fox Fighter didn’t get much luck last weekend and now comes here on the quick back up. Key jockey change with Tim Clark replacing Andrew Adkins. If the track remains in the soft range it’s a big query for this horse though.

Tip: (2) El Mo E/W $31/$7.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W El Mo

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2021, 6:49pm (AEDT)

(3) Suave won two starts ago and then bumped into the smart Promise Of Success last start. That horse was due to start a popular favourite in Melbourne before being withdrawn before the race. Suave has had barrier 1 in its past two starts so will have to do it a bit harder from barrier 9 today, but comes into this in good form and did go close at this stage last prep.

(8) Media Starguest was a big run first up after sitting wide throughout. That was on firm ground which he’s yet to win on, and he’s likely to get a little bit of cut in the ground today.

(7) Blesk is favourite but comes off two runs on the Kenso and Rosehill is slightly trickier to win at if coming from back in the field. The horse did win over 1500m last start but interestingly has never won at the mile from six attempts.

(1) Zoushack and (2) Bergen obvious chances.

Tip: (3) Suave $5.50 TopSport

Value: (8) Media Starguest $11 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Suave, 0.5 units WIN Media Starguest