Rosehill Racing Tips: Wednesday, October 6th

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

(4) Dufresne couldn’t have gotten any closer to breaking through last start and he looks ready to win. They’ve backed him up this week so he is clearly going well and Jason Collett jumps aboard in some great form. Think the slight rise to 1500m should suit and this guy will be peak fitness now. The inside draw means he can enjoy run of the race stuff throughout and be too strong once the gaps present themselves. 

(5) Antonio Giovanni looks the main danger and should strip fitter from two runs this prep. He was good on debut, finishing off well for 2nd before being rolled as a short-priced fav at Goulburn. Can bounce back today. 

(7) Ocean Shores is next best for mine and looks the big improver having just his 2nd start today.

Tip: (4) Dufresne - $2.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Dufresne

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 2:02pm (AEDT)

This is going to be a good clash between a few smart up and comers. I’m siding with (3) Depiction who absolutely bolted in when first up this prep, taking care of maiden grade by 5L. That was his first start as a gelding and he ran strong time. Goes straight to a bm64 here and he’s got the ability to handle this rise in grade. Expect him to go to the lead from the wide draw and they might not catch him. 

(5) Zetarita has strung together two good wins following a debut 2nd so you can’t knock that sort of form. She came from well back to knock off Hoover Lucy who has since come out and won. 

(4) Kiss Sum returned to the track this prep with an emphatic win at Wyong and looks a very good horse. Will be tackling this longer trip for the first time but the stable has high aspirations for this horse so it’s worth following him whatever he does today.

 

Tip: (3) Depiction - $2.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Depiction

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

(3) Escaped was very good winning last start in bm72 grade and deserves a crack here. Will find the lead from barrier 1 and in a race with a lack of speed, Nash should be able to control proceedings. In an open race that could be the best way to play this. 

(7) Shibli was a deserved winner over 1600 but I’m not sure I’m sold on the slight drop back in trip here. Can’t doubt Chris Waller however and the horse is clearly going very well. 

(2) Margie Bee will do what she normally does and be up near the speed and give a strong kick. She’s always competitive in these sorts of races and could get away with this. 

(8) Agrimony is a massive query runner here having first local start for Waller without any public trials. Jmac goes straight on and I’d say best to follow the market for him here.

Not overly confident so won’t be betting into this race.

Tip: (3) Escaped - $3.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 3:11pm (AEDT)

This is tough. (2) Fifteen Aria was good in a stronger race than this last start, just unable to reel in the leader. Drops back in grade for this and 3rd up now he should be ready to do something. Is 1/1 over this trip. 

(1) Ladylovestogamble is airborne. It was a huge win at Kenso last start, flying up the rail to beat a pretty handy field. She’s getting up in weight now but the 3kg claim is a big factor today and you can’t knock her at all. 

(3) Pippali was going very well in these sorts of races before tackling some black type last start. Was outclassed there but can hit back now.

Tip: (2) Fifteen Aria - $3.90 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Fifteen Aria

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 3:46pm (AEDT)

(8) Olivia’s Game brings Victorian form lines to this race and I’m happy to have something on her at the price. This will be her first start in Sydney since joining the Waller stable and I’m hoping that may do the trick. Gets in nice an dlight and this looks winnable. 

The stablemate (4) Mightybeel will be hardest to beat and should be improved now 2nd up and getting out to this trip. Maps for the perfect run for Jmac and will be hard to hold out. 

Nothing wrong with the form of (7) Narrated and he is a tough on-speed horse. Was only run down late at Kenso and he might enjoy stretching out to the 1900m now. 

Tip: (8) Olivia's Game - $8.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5u WIN Olivia's Game

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 4:21pm (AEDT)

It was a sick watch on (1) Juan Diva last start where he should have won. Tim Clark was aboard that day and he gets his chance to atone today. From barrier 9 he will have his work cut out again but I prefer the horse out there than inside. Goes well 2nd up and I think he’s in for a big prep. 

(5) Fumiko no doubt has upside and looks an exciting horse for the stable. I can’t get her as short as she is at the moment but they’ve booked McDonald which is a big push and she could just have a bit of X factor. 

Could be a complete misread by me but (7) Fusca looks a big price and can run a race I thought. Was a very good return from him at huge odds behind a couple of handy horses. Gets well down in the weights today, 2nd up form is strong and he’s a 1200m horse.

(4) Molly Nails is four weeks between runs here but it was a very good fresh run. She finished 3rd there at Randwick and has a heap of improvement still to come.

Tip: (1) Juan Diva - $4.40 at Ladbrokes

Value: (7) Fusca - $46/$8.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2u WIN Juan Diva, 0.25u WIN/0.5u PLACE Fusca

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 4:56pm (AEDT)

(6) Jerle doesn’t win out of turn but showed enough fresh for me to follow him in here today. That was over a trip short of his best and he is much better suited at 1100m now. Maps for a nice trail behind the pace and he can notch up a 2nd career win. 

(7) Washington Towers was good in two starts this prep and looks ready to do something. Was a winner last prep when 3rd up and should be on speed with Nash to ride. Can fill a hole. 

(3) Ocean Emporer has form in better races than this and should strip fitter from the first up run. Looks the likely leader and might be able to run them off their feet. 

Tip: (6) Jerle - $5.50 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5u WIN Jerle

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 5:31pm (AEDT)

Looking forward to seeing (3) April Rain back at the races today and she looks a big chance of winning here fresh. Yet to miss the quinella from three first up runs and the trial leading into this was a pass mark. She started very fancied favourite in both run last prep and wasn’t beaten far in either. She’s clearly got talent and I’m hoping we get to see the best of her this prep. 

(8) Quantico is the main threat and was very good first up when compleetly unwanted by the market. Made a heap of ground there late and the sectionals were good. Was the horse to follow out of that meeting and he may be back to some of his best. 

Be surprised if one of those two didn’t win but (5) Dancing Gidget looks the value and is a good fresh horse. Is a two-time winner here at Rosehill as well. 

Tip: (3) April Rain - $2.70 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2.5u WIN April Rain