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Rosehill Racing Tips: Wednesday, October 6th

Billy Bestford is back again to preview every race today, with his best bet coming up in the lucky last.

Rosehill-Racing

The quality racing we’ve had in recent days is set to continue with Rosehill playing host to a strong eight race card this Wednesday. 

The track is currently rated a soft 5 while the rail is out 6 metres the entire course. Fine weather is predicted and it’s forecast to be quite warm so I’d expect a good 4 come race time. 

Billy Bestford brings you a full race by race analysis and highlights his best bets and betting strategy for the day. 

Best Bet: Race 8 – (3) April Rain

Best Value: Race 6 – (7) Fusca

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Race 1

The Agency Real Estate Mdn Hcp (1500m)
1:25pm (AEDT)

Race 1

The Agency Real Estate Mdn Hcp (1500m)
1:25pm (AEDT)

1. Segal (7) J: Nash Rawiller (59kg) T: C J Waller
131213121212
2. Who Loves To Dance (2) J: Unknown (58.5kg) T: G W Moore
3. How Do You Sleep (6) J: Jay Ford (58kg) T: Joseph Pride
1314151413.614
4. Dufresne (1) J: Jason Collett (57.5kg) T: A J Cummings
22222.12
5. Antonio Giovanni (11) J: James Mcdonald (57kg) T: C J Waller
6676.56.16
6. Caboche (12) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
1718201919.218
7. Ocean Shores (5) J: Joshua Parr (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
1516181614.616
8. Black Queen (8) J: Tim Clark (56kg) T: C J Waller
192021212021
9. Hollywood North (3) J: Glyn Schofield (55.5kg) T: C J Waller
1617181916.418
10. Champions League (9) J: Tommy Berry (54.5kg) T: J A O'shea
11. Charity Spirit (10) J: Ms Rachel King (54kg) T: G Portelli
2021262123.523
12. Cryptogram (13) J: Ms Alysha Collett (54kg) T: A J Cummings
13. White Glove Test (4) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: C J Waller
1312121413.412

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

(4) Dufresne couldn’t have gotten any closer to breaking through last start and he looks ready to win. They’ve backed him up this week so he is clearly going well and Jason Collett jumps aboard in some great form. Think the slight rise to 1500m should suit and this guy will be peak fitness now. The inside draw means he can enjoy run of the race stuff throughout and be too strong once the gaps present themselves. 

(5) Antonio Giovanni looks the main danger and should strip fitter from two runs this prep. He was good on debut, finishing off well for 2nd before being rolled as a short-priced fav at Goulburn. Can bounce back today. 

(7) Ocean Shores is next best for mine and looks the big improver having just his 2nd start today.

Tip: (4) Dufresne - $2.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Dufresne

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Race 2

Vinery (Bm68) (1300m)
2:00pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Vinery (Bm68) (1300m)
2:00pm (AEDT)

1. Park Avenue (7) J: Tommy Berry (60.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
8.58.599.59.28.5
2. Holstein (1) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (59.5kg) T: M J Dunn
111111121211
3. Depiction (8) J: Nash Rawiller (58kg) T: James Cummings
2.32.32.32.32.22.3
4. Kiss Sum (2) J: Jason Collett (57.5kg) T: T J Bartley
5.55.55.565.65
5. Zetarita (6) J: Hugh Bowman (57kg) T: K A Lees
5.55.55.55.55.65
6. Snitzonfire (5) J: Tim Clark (55.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
1920262121.521
7. Wasserman (3) J: James Mcdonald (55kg) T: C J Waller
414161614341
8. Headliner (4) J: Glen Boss (54kg) T: C J Waller
101011111011

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 2:02pm (AEDT)

This is going to be a good clash between a few smart up and comers. I’m siding with (3) Depiction who absolutely bolted in when first up this prep, taking care of maiden grade by 5L. That was his first start as a gelding and he ran strong time. Goes straight to a bm64 here and he’s got the ability to handle this rise in grade. Expect him to go to the lead from the wide draw and they might not catch him. 

(5) Zetarita has strung together two good wins following a debut 2nd so you can’t knock that sort of form. She came from well back to knock off Hoover Lucy who has since come out and won. 

(4) Kiss Sum returned to the track this prep with an emphatic win at Wyong and looks a very good horse. Will be tackling this longer trip for the first time but the stable has high aspirations for this horse so it’s worth following him whatever he does today.

 

Tip: (3) Depiction - $2.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Depiction

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Race 3

Ranvet (Bm78) (1500m)
2:35pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Ranvet (Bm78) (1500m)
2:35pm (AEDT)

1. Snowfire (4) J: Tommy Berry (60kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
101010119.59.5
2. Margie Bee (7) J: Ms Rachel King (58.5kg) T: Ms K Buchanan
1413161414.213
3. Escaped (1) J: Nash Rawiller (58kg) T: J C Deamer
76.57.587.27
4. Reformist (5) J: Glyn Schofield (58kg) T: Edward Cummings
232131212323
5. Ruby Tuesday (3) J: Tim Clark (58kg) T: G Portelli
9.510101010.49.5
6. The Grinder (8) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
7. Shibli (6) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: C J Waller
3.73.63.63.63.553.5
8. Agrimony (2) J: James Mcdonald (55kg) T: C J Waller
2.42.452.452.42.42.5

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

(3) Escaped was very good winning last start in bm72 grade and deserves a crack here. Will find the lead from barrier 1 and in a race with a lack of speed, Nash should be able to control proceedings. In an open race that could be the best way to play this. 

(7) Shibli was a deserved winner over 1600 but I’m not sure I’m sold on the slight drop back in trip here. Can’t doubt Chris Waller however and the horse is clearly going very well. 

(2) Margie Bee will do what she normally does and be up near the speed and give a strong kick. She’s always competitive in these sorts of races and could get away with this. 

(8) Agrimony is a massive query runner here having first local start for Waller without any public trials. Jmac goes straight on and I’d say best to follow the market for him here.

Not overly confident so won’t be betting into this race.

Tip: (3) Escaped - $3.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

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Race 4

Tab (Bm72) (1500m)
3:10pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Tab (Bm72) (1500m)
3:10pm (AEDT)

1. Ladylovestogamble (7) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (62.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
6.56.5877.16.5
2. Fifteen Aria (5) J: James Mcdonald (59kg) T: C J Waller
5.55.5665.75
3. Pippali (6) J: Tommy Berry (58.5kg) T: J C Coyle
3.23.23.13.23.353.1
4. Vittoriosa (4) J: Tim Clark (57.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
4.84.64.64.84.554.4
5. Seduction Queen (2) J: Joshua Parr (57kg) T: R & M Freedman
101010109.210
6. Jeanne D'arc (8) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
232126262426
7. Elusive Jewel (3) J: Andrew Adkins (54.5kg) T: John Thompson
76.576.56.37
8. Role Play (1) J: Jeff Penza (54kg) T: K J Parker

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 3:11pm (AEDT)

This is tough. (2) Fifteen Aria was good in a stronger race than this last start, just unable to reel in the leader. Drops back in grade for this and 3rd up now he should be ready to do something. Is 1/1 over this trip. 

(1) Ladylovestogamble is airborne. It was a huge win at Kenso last start, flying up the rail to beat a pretty handy field. She’s getting up in weight now but the 3kg claim is a big factor today and you can’t knock her at all. 

(3) Pippali was going very well in these sorts of races before tackling some black type last start. Was outclassed there but can hit back now.

Tip: (2) Fifteen Aria - $3.90 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Fifteen Aria

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Race 5

Admire Mars @ Arrowfield-Bm72 (1900m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Admire Mars @ Arrowfield-Bm72 (1900m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

1. California Longbow (7) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (60kg) T: P & P Snowden
141213151313
2. Kuzco Lad (2) J: Regan Bayliss (59kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
888.587.87.5
3. Shibli (5) J: Hugh Bowman (59kg) T: C J Waller
4. Mightybeel (4) J: James Mcdonald (57.5kg) T: C J Waller
2.152.122.12.152
5. Terwilliker (9) J: Ms Alysha Collett (57.5kg) T: A J Cummings
2121262122.521
6. Fields Of Honour (1) J: Jason Collett (57kg) T: Bjorn Baker
99998.99
7. Narrated (8) J: Ms Rachel King (54kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
6.577.576.87
8. Olivia's Game (6) J: Tommy Berry (54kg) T: C J Waller
1313131512.212
9. Enduring Night (3) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54kg) T: J C Coyle
9.59.510109.810

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 3:46pm (AEDT)

(8) Olivia’s Game brings Victorian form lines to this race and I’m happy to have something on her at the price. This will be her first start in Sydney since joining the Waller stable and I’m hoping that may do the trick. Gets in nice an dlight and this looks winnable. 

The stablemate (4) Mightybeel will be hardest to beat and should be improved now 2nd up and getting out to this trip. Maps for the perfect run for Jmac and will be hard to hold out. 

Nothing wrong with the form of (7) Narrated and he is a tough on-speed horse. Was only run down late at Kenso and he might enjoy stretching out to the 1900m now. 

Tip: (8) Olivia's Game - $8.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5u WIN Olivia's Game

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Race 6

Yulong (Bm72) (1200m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Yulong (Bm72) (1200m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

1. Undeniable (8) J: Ms Jenny Duggan (60.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
2. Juan Diva (9) J: Tim Clark (60kg) T: R & M Freedman
4.24.24.24.444.2
3. Joyous Legend (2) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
1412151514.413
4. Molly Nails (1) J: Sam Clipperton (56.5kg) T: Matthew Dale
4.64.24.64.84.554.2
5. Fumiko (3) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: Ms K Buchanan
3.23.43.53.43.63.3
6. Lady Of Luxury (5) J: Jason Collett (55kg) T: Bjorn Baker
3.63.73.73.43.43.7
7. Fusca (4) J: Jean Van Overmeire (54.5kg) T: Joseph Ible
8. Miss Anticipation (6) J: Jeff Penza (54kg) T: R T Leemon
465161714961
9. Masked Maree (7) J: Ms Alysha Collett (54kg) T: A J Cummings
6161911017771

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 4:21pm (AEDT)

It was a sick watch on (1) Juan Diva last start where he should have won. Tim Clark was aboard that day and he gets his chance to atone today. From barrier 9 he will have his work cut out again but I prefer the horse out there than inside. Goes well 2nd up and I think he’s in for a big prep. 

(5) Fumiko no doubt has upside and looks an exciting horse for the stable. I can’t get her as short as she is at the moment but they’ve booked McDonald which is a big push and she could just have a bit of X factor. 

Could be a complete misread by me but (7) Fusca looks a big price and can run a race I thought. Was a very good return from him at huge odds behind a couple of handy horses. Gets well down in the weights today, 2nd up form is strong and he’s a 1200m horse.

(4) Molly Nails is four weeks between runs here but it was a very good fresh run. She finished 3rd there at Randwick and has a heap of improvement still to come.

Tip: (1) Juan Diva - $4.40 at Ladbrokes

Value: (7) Fusca - $46/$8.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2u WIN Juan Diva, 0.25u WIN/0.5u PLACE Fusca

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Race 7

Merchant Navy @ Coolmore-Bm72 (1100m)
4:55pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Merchant Navy @ Coolmore-Bm72 (1100m)
4:55pm (AEDT)

1. Harlem Blues (3) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (61kg) T: P & P Snowden
98.59.59.58.78.5
2. Kinloch (9) J: Hugh Bowman (60.5kg) T: K A Lees
3. Ocean Emperor (5) J: Jason Collett (59kg) T: Bjorn Baker
3.13.13.13.22.93.1
4. Shadow Bridge (1) J: Joshua Parr (58.5kg) T: Mark Newnham
887.577.58
5. Undeniable (4) J: Ms Jenny Duggan (58.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
5.55.555.55.95
6. Jerle (6) J: James Mcdonald (58kg) T: James Cummings
4.84.84.84.84.74.6
7. Washington Towers (7) J: Nash Rawiller (58kg) T: Todd Smart
999.51010.29
8. Isalute (8) J: Glen Boss (55.5kg) T: B A Partelle
1212121213.212
9. Drachenfels (2) J: Ms Alysha Collett (54kg) T: J A Sylvester

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 4:56pm (AEDT)

(6) Jerle doesn’t win out of turn but showed enough fresh for me to follow him in here today. That was over a trip short of his best and he is much better suited at 1100m now. Maps for a nice trail behind the pace and he can notch up a 2nd career win. 

(7) Washington Towers was good in two starts this prep and looks ready to do something. Was a winner last prep when 3rd up and should be on speed with Nash to ride. Can fill a hole. 

(3) Ocean Emporer has form in better races than this and should strip fitter from the first up run. Looks the likely leader and might be able to run them off their feet. 

Tip: (6) Jerle - $5.50 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5u WIN Jerle

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Race 8

Xxxx (Bm78) (1300m)
5:30pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Xxxx (Bm78) (1300m)
5:30pm (AEDT)

1. Academy (7) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (62.5kg) T: Mark Newnham
88.59.5988.5
2. Zakat (8) J: Nash Rawiller (61kg) T: James Cummings
65.55.56.55.45.5
3. April Rain (1) J: James Mcdonald (60kg) T: C J Waller
2.32.352.42.32.42.4
4. Bergen (9) J: Tim Clark (59.5kg) T: G W Moore
2321262123.523
5. Dancing Gidget (4) J: Glyn Schofield (59.5kg) T: C J Waller
91010109.210
6. Safado (12) J: Jason Collett (59.5kg) T: K A Lees
7. Irish Songs (3) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (59kg) T: Kurt Goldman
212021212121
8. Quantico (2) J: Hugh Bowman (59kg) T: J A O'shea
4.64.44.84.84.44
9. Stolen Jade (10) J: Sam Clipperton (59kg) T: C E Conners
313141413734
10. Liberty Sun (6) J: Joshua Parr (58.5kg) T: G Mcfarlane
11. Escaped (5) J: Unknown (58kg) T: J C Deamer
12. Tim's Principal (11) J: Ms Rachel King (55.5kg) T: J R Gask

Odds Last Updated: October 6, 2021, 5:31pm (AEDT)

Looking forward to seeing (3) April Rain back at the races today and she looks a big chance of winning here fresh. Yet to miss the quinella from three first up runs and the trial leading into this was a pass mark. She started very fancied favourite in both run last prep and wasn’t beaten far in either. She’s clearly got talent and I’m hoping we get to see the best of her this prep. 

(8) Quantico is the main threat and was very good first up when compleetly unwanted by the market. Made a heap of ground there late and the sectionals were good. Was the horse to follow out of that meeting and he may be back to some of his best. 

Be surprised if one of those two didn’t win but (5) Dancing Gidget looks the value and is a good fresh horse. Is a two-time winner here at Rosehill as well. 

Tip: (3) April Rain - $2.70 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2.5u WIN April Rain

Billy has been an avid racing fan ever since he and a few mates started a punters club once they turned 18. Following the initial punters clubs, he was properly hooked after landing a nice collect on Admire Rakti in the 2014 Caulfield Cup and has had a soft spot for Japanese horses ever since. Is a massive fan of 'blinkers first time' and has been known to enjoy a 'Hail Mary' multi. Loves punting across metro Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday but isn't scared to venture West late in the day to find a Pikey special.

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