Racing Tips

Sale Racing Tips: Sunday, December 20th

Sunday racing takes place at Sale in Victoria and The Horse has picked out four races on the card to bet in.

by
Tim Geers
20 December 2020

Sunday racing in Victoria lands at two venues, Horsham and Sale. The Horsham card looks impossible, so our focus is on the card at Sale.

There are four maiden races to open the day, while four bm64 grade races close the day. The Horse has found a few across the card including Race 1, Race 3, Race 4 and Race 5.

Race 1

Ritchies Iga Mdn Plate (2226m)
1:20pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Ritchies Iga Mdn Plate (2226m) 1:20pm (AEDT)
1. Dashing Poet (6) J: Michael Poy (59.5kg) T: Charlotte Littlefield
2. Doom Star (9) J: Jamie Mott (59.5kg) T: Jackson Pallot	7.5	7	7.6	7
3. Dr Schultz (1) J: Ms Jade Darose (59.5kg) T: M A Bell	18	18	16.8	18
4. Grand Quill (8) J: Beau Mertens (59.5kg) T: Peter Gelagotis
5. Northeast Express (4) J: Mark Zahra (59.5kg) T: K L Corstens	7.5	7	7.5	7.5
6. Ozymandias (10) J: Campbell Rawiller (59.5kg) T: B I Stanaway
7. Praise The Power (5) J: Daniel Stackhouse (59.5kg) T: Susie Wells	41	51	31	41
8. Miletus (3) J: Jordan Childs (58kg) T: Jamie Edwards	2.5	2.35	2.4	2.4
9. Forliah (7) J: Jye Mcneil (57.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	2.2	2.15	2.25	2.15
10. Rose Dior (2) J: Daniel Moor (56kg) T: Gavin Bedggood	19	20	18.4	19

Odds Last Updated: December 21, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

The favourite (9) Forliah looks to have something on the majority of the field here, 11 starts for 6 places, she has been pretty consistent without threatening for the win. Jye McNeil gets back on board, which is a positive sign, and while the stable is looking to stretch her out to this distance quite quickly, she has placed second-up and at this distance. The jump from 1600 metres first-up to 2226 metres second-up is a little query. Like many maiden runners, there are just too many unknowns to be confident at the short price of $2.10.

The main threat looks to be (8) Miletus at the better odds of around $3.00 – only having 3 career starts to date; he has been improving each run. The latest is by far the best performance where he placed second behind Silk Jacket over 1850 metres. The step up in distance is a positive, and looks a touch more strategic than that of the favourite. Silk Jacket would be a short priced favourite here, so the form line looks the strongest. Happy to go against the favourite and have something on Miletus.

Tip: (8) Miletus $2.90 (Sportsbet)

Race 2

Sanlam Private Wealth Mdn (1006m)
1:55pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Sanlam Private Wealth Mdn (1006m) 1:55pm (AEDT)
1. Agami Karma (10) J: Daniel Stackhouse (58kg) T: K & K Keys	17	16	12.4	16
2. Ceejay (7) J: Daniel Moor (58kg) T: Luke Oliver	23	26	23	23
3. Free To Act (2) J: Beau Mertens (58kg) T: N J Harnett	15	14	17.2	16
4. Just Malcolm (11) J: Jye Mcneil (58kg) T: W J Wood	4	4	4.45	4
5. Mr Have A Chat (9) J: Michael Dee (58kg) T: J W Price	12	11	10	11
6. On The Program (6) J: Fred W Kersley (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	3.5	3.2	3.35	3.5
7. Ourlink (5) J: Jordan Childs (58kg) T: Sarah Zschoke	12	15	15	14
8. A Penny Spent (1) J: Jason Benbow (56kg) T: Ms H Stephens	151	201	131	151
9. Arroance (8) J: Brian Park (56kg) T: Mark C Webb	10	10	9.2	10
10. I'm Oh So Pretty (3) J: Campbell Rawiller (56kg) T: Logan Mcgill
11. Queen Ryker (4) J: Michael Poy (56kg) T: P & P Snowden	3.4	3.3	3.3	3.2

Odds Last Updated: December 21, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Race 3

Cabinet Connections Mdn Plate (1415m)
2:30pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Cabinet Connections Mdn Plate (1415m) 2:30pm (AEDT)
1. Solis Ortus (8) J: Daniel Moor (59.5kg) T: G Eurell	41	51	45	41
2. Star Of The Elms (10) J: Michael Poy (59.5kg) T: Saab Hasan	71	81	65	71
3. Syrian Road (6) J: Arron Lynch (59.5kg) T: Jaymee Cockram	81	91	111	81
4. Barrington Manor (11) J: Clayton Douglas (58kg) T: Michael Trotter	35	41	43	41
5. Big Crunch (12) J: Remi Tremsal (58kg) T: D Binaisse	16	17	17.2	15
6. Crafty Bob (5) J: Campbell Rawiller (58kg) T: Michael Trotter
7. Down The Barrel (1) J: Jason Benbow (58kg) T: Richard Laming	12	13	14.2	11
8. Iona Heart (4) J: Brian Park (58kg) T: Paul Worthington	51	61	63	51
9. Ladymane (9) J: Beau Mertens (57.5kg) T: Saab Hasan	81	81	111	81
10. Spiritofthevalley (7) J: Jordan Childs (57.5kg) T: Peter Gelagotis	7.5	7	6.7	7
11. Audacious Heart (2) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: A & S Freedman	1.6	1.6	1.62	1.6
12. Insaaf (3) J: Michael Dee (56kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	3.8	3.8	3.2	3.6
13. Manasa (13) J: Fred W Kersley (56kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young

Odds Last Updated: December 21, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

This looks to be a race between two. (11) Audacious Heart is bound to be many tipsters best for the day, but at the skinny odds, you need to be pretty keen. The Fastnet Rock mare has had 3 starts for 3 places. Her last two seconds were pretty solid results, just finding one better on the day. She closed the last one out nicely but didn’t have enough to get paste the winner Dance To Dubai. The slight rise in distance is therefore a positive, and what is another sign of intent, blinkers are on for the first time.

There is one threat in my view, and that is (12) Insaaf for the Price/Kent stable. First-up over 1415 metres is the immediate query, not placing first-up last preparation. Her form lines however are the superior reference, placing second behind Chequerboard and third behind Cherry Tortoni reads strong for this. A sixth behind Crosshaven also not poor reading. Unsure that this is the right set-up, so the favourite might have the edge—not to say Insaaf couldn’t come out and win this with a hoof in the air.

The only other one in the market that looks worth including in the exotics is (10) Spiritofthevalley.

Top pick: (11) Audacious Heart $1.65 (Sportsbet)

Betting: Same-race multi $4.50

(11) Audacious Heart (top 2)

(12) Insaaf (top 2)

(10) Spiritofthevalley (top 4)

Race 4

Turnbull Toyota Mdn Plate (1515m)
3:05pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Turnbull Toyota Mdn Plate (1515m) 3:05pm (AEDT)
1. Bold Magic (9) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: Charlotte Littlefield
2. Crackerjack Lady (4) J: Jye Mcneil (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	5	5	5.2	5
3. Dancing With Fire (11) J: Michael Carson (58kg) T: B I Stanaway
4. Realism (6) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: E Jusufovic	13	12	12.4	13
5. Stern In Grinzing (8) J: Clayton Douglas (58kg) T: Erin Maher
6. Alverio (13) J: Daniel Moor (56.5kg) T: D T O'brien
7. Dragon's Justice (7) J: Ms Chelsea Hall (56.5kg) T: Tim Hughes	61	61	51	61
8. Glint (3) J: Michael Dee (56.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	8	9	9.2	8
9. Highly Righteous (2) J: Daniel Stackhouse (56.5kg) T: J F Moloney	21	20	21.5	19
10. Miss Gobcain (5) J: Brian Park (56.5kg) T: Mark C Webb	6.5	6.5	7	7
11. Russian By (10) J: Fred W Kersley (56.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	12	12	9.2	10
12. Starlight Scope (1) J: Jack Martin (56.5kg) T: P G Carey	2.2	2.15	2.25	2.2
13. Tectonic Shift (12) J: Jordan Childs (56.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	8	7	6.3	7.5

Odds Last Updated: December 21, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

If Audacious Heart performs well in the previous race, it is hard not to like (12) Starlight Scope here. Placing third behind Audacious Heart last start, she looks to find a winnable race here. She has closed well in both of her starts, from midfield or worse, to come in near the winners. The jump in distance is a positive in that regard, and the field she faces today does not look the toughest.

The Kent/Price runner (8) Glint showed some improvement and at $8.00 will be a good each-way bet for those wanting more value. Glint could be one of those runners from this stable that suddenly/sharply improves, so watch any market support. Might be a nice little saver.

Tip: (12) Starlight Scope $2.20 (TAB)

Also backing: (8) Glint $8.00 (TAB)

Race 5

Quest Sale (Bm64) (1732m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Quest Sale (Bm64) (1732m) 3:45pm (AEDT)
1. I Am A Hit (2) J: Jamie Mott (60kg) T: Nick Ryan	6	5.5	4.9	6
2. Two Shots (1) J: Daniel Stackhouse (60kg) T: Craig Blackshaw	7.5	7	7.6	7
3. Fiftyonestates (7) J: Mark Zahra (59.5kg) T: Shea Eden	5.5	4.8	5.6	5
4. Just As Soon (5) J: Jye Mcneil (59kg) T: A & S Freedman	5	4.8	5.4	4.8
5. Night Passage (3) J: Damien Thornton (59kg) T: T & C Mcevoy	1.9	1.85	1.82	1.85
6. Last Dance (4) J: Ms Chelsea Hall (56kg) T: C G Murray	61	61	83	61
7. Kurgan (6) J: Michael Poy (56kg) T: Michelle Huddart	35	41	43	34
8. Fromista (8) J: Beau Mertens (56kg) T: R J Meunier	101	101	131	126

Odds Last Updated: December 21, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Sticking with the favourite (5) Night Passage who should be up to this after two placings leading in. Always feel that McEvoy runners look under the odds, and today looks no exception, so hopefully there is a slight drift before jump to add some value. This is technically up in grade for her today, but the form behind Cornerpocket and Make Mine Hennessy is solid enough.

(3) Fiftyonestates is likely to get a good steer from Mark Zahra and come flashing late. The query is the consistency, and whether she turns up today.

Tip: (12) Night Passage $1.90 (Sportsbet)

Race 6

Lords Cleaning Service (Bm64) (2226m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Lords Cleaning Service (Bm64) (2226m) 4:20pm (AEDT)
1. Redwood Rising (7) J: Daniel Moor (60.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	3.5	3.2	3.55	3.5
2. Heartland Raider (12) J: Luke Currie (58.5kg) T: C Gafa	7.5	7.5	8	7.5
3. Lion's Share (6) J: Clayton Douglas (58.5kg) T: Steven Pateman	4.5	4.2	5.1	4.6
4. Axecapital (13) J: Unknown (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
5. Savvy Boy (3) J: Jason Benbow (58kg) T: Ms M Murray	46	41	47	41
6. Miss Five Hundred (9) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: Peter Gelagotis	2.8	2.7	2.5	2.7
7. Fioritura (14) J: Jack Martin (56kg) T: P G Carey	12	11	9.2	11
8. Sassoon (4) J: Ms Chelsea Hall (56kg) T: Ms R Kelly	17	17	16.2	17
9. Ventura Highway (8) J: Neil Farley (56kg) T: B I Stanaway
10. Faltonius (11) J: Campbell Rawiller (56kg) T: B I Stanaway
11. Compulsive (10) J: Michael Carson (56kg) T: B I Stanaway
12. Mr Charisma (2) J: Michael Poy (56kg) T: Ms A Bennett	16	14	15.2	15
13. Americaneer (5) J: Beau Mertens (56kg) T: Ms A Bennett	46	51	35	41
14. Zabextra (1) J: Ms Kate Walters (56kg) T: Wayne Walters	67	81	73	71

Odds Last Updated: December 21, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Race 7

Turnbull Plumbing (Bm64) (1415m)
4:55pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Turnbull Plumbing (Bm64) (1415m) 4:55pm (AEDT)
1. Necessary (9) J: Jamie Mott (61.5kg) T: E Jusufovic	7	7	7.1	6.5
2. Nangawooka (6) J: Jamie Mott (60.5kg) T: Michael Huglin
3. The Great One (2) J: Jye Mcneil (60kg) T: Peter Gelagotis	4.6	4.6	4.65	4.6
4. Over The Sky (4) J: Mark Zahra (59kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	1.9	1.85	1.82	1.9
5. Finnick (5) J: Daniel Stackhouse (58.5kg) T: Susie Wells	67	67	71	81
6. Ameliaranne (7) J: Beau Mertens (58kg) T: N J Harnett	9	9	9.4	9
7. Zimowy (8) J: Daniel Moor (57kg) T: K & K Keys	9	8.5	9.1	9
8. Credlin (11) J: Michael Dee (56.5kg) T: E Jusufovic	17	15	17.2	15
9. Changing Tracks (1) J: Michael Poy (56kg) T: Paul & Tracey Templeton	13	13	14.2	13
10. Elvaric (10) J: Ms Chelsea Hall (56kg) T: Susie Wells
11. Annie's Missile (3) J: Jack Martin (56kg) T: P G Carey

Odds Last Updated: December 21, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Race 8

John Elliman Real Estate-Bm64 (1106m)
5:25pm (AEDT)

Race 8 John Elliman Real Estate-Bm64 (1106m) 5:25pm (AEDT)
1. Moi Choux (3) J: Ms Emily Brown (62kg) T: Richard Laming	7.5	7	7.2	7
2. Creative Lad (9) J: Mark Zahra (60.5kg) T: Peter Gelagotis	11	10	9.9	11
3. Manhattan War (7) J: Daniel Stackhouse (60kg) T: B J Mccarthy
4. Seafield Road (6) J: Beau Mertens (59.5kg) T: N J Harnett	8	7	8.1	7
5. Shenanigan City (2) J: Michael Dee (59.5kg) T: E Jusufovic	10	10	9.6	11
6. Gold Spark (8) J: Jamie Mott (59kg) T: Nick Ryan	4.6	4.6	4.5	4.6
7. All In Brawl (1) J: Jordan Childs (58.5kg) T: Shawn Mathrick
8. Caribbean Pearl (11) J: Clayton Douglas (58.5kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold	15	17	12.2	15
9. Trotsie (12) J: Ms Alexandra Bryan (58.5kg) T: Ms R Mangan
10. Yankee Lou (10) J: Michael Poy (58.5kg) T: Charlotte Littlefield
11. Goolagong Rose (4) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: T & C Mcevoy	1.9	1.9	2	1.9
12. Mighty Murt (13) J: Arron Lynch (57kg) T: J W Price
13. Harpers Bight (5) J: Jake Noonan (56kg) T: M Farrugia	51	41	53	51

Odds Last Updated: December 21, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Tim Geers

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.