Sale Racing Tips: Sunday, October 25th

Odds Last Updated: October 26, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

The day commences with a pretty tough maiden on paper. But there is one here that looked unlucky in his first at Moonee Valley.

The Michael Moroney trained (5) Shelby Cobra was favourite and had support when he ran fourth behind Ice Ice Baby— who subsequently raced in a Group 3 at the Valley yesterday (albeit a little disappointing). Zahra stays on board, and he is red hot at the moment. The track, at the time of writing, is a Heavy 8, and it doesn’t look likely to improve, so there is a degree of faith here that Shelby Cobra will handle the muck. Maybe hold out until the jump to ascertain what the market is doing. If there is support under the track conditions, than that’s good enough for me. The odds are pretty skinny, so maybe an exotic is the play.

Outside the favourite, (4) Seb Song may prove to have ability, but is also down to run at Bendigo on Wednesday, so if the conditions don’t suit we may not be surprised to see him scratched.

Tip: (5) Shelby Cobra $2.20 Palmerbet

Odds Last Updated: October 26, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: October 26, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

There have been a number of early scratchings already, resulting in what looks like a pretty even field. Thanks to the scratchings some of the prices have already been hammered.

(2) Hasseltoff has competed in four races placing three times. Last time out it was at a higher grade around Caulfield. The maiden status shouldn’t be around for too long—and I think today is the day. He ran well on Soft twice already, so I am comfortable with the assumption he’ll handle the Heavy going. Damien Lane is in the saddle, one of the senior jockeys getting around today.  When looking at the field more widely, there are enough reasons against the rest to exclude them from consideration, which builds my confidence in the favourite.

Tip: (2) Hasseltoff  $2.30 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: October 26, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Here is one that stands out from the crowd, and subsequently is very short in the market. (6) Meteorite broke the track record at Moonee Valley in the 955 metre sprint, which is pretty impressive. He was on top of the ground that night, which raises the obvious question; can he do it in the wet? I am going to say yes. Tony & Calvin McEvoy are unlikely to run such a lovely prospect if they think he won’t be able to handle the going.

There are a couple of other good runners here however, so he will not have it all his own way. (2) The Crusha (potentially named after the Melbourne Storm’s tackling techniques) has performed well in bm70 grade and ran a respectable third behind La Mexicana at Cranbourne, who has since come out and won impressively at Moonee Valley only yesterday in Stakes grade. He has already won in the Heavy going so could be the surprise packet.

(8) High Risk has also performed well but unproven in one start on Heavy. The top tip here is Meteorite, but at the price you’re going to need to be pretty keen to get stuck in. So I’ll be playing him in a multiple, but placing something on The Crusha in the event of an upset.

Tip: (6) Meteorite $1.70 Bet365

Also backing: (2) The Crusha $7.50 Palmerbet

Odds Last Updated: October 26, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

When first looking at this race it really didn’t appeal. Then the track turned to Heavy and (6) Raise ‘Em Up started to look more and more likely. He has been racing reasonably in a higher grade than this, without winning, but slots back into a more suitable bm64 at the right distance (1600 metres).

The main factors here include the main competition, (12) Baglioni and (3) Mount Madeira are going up in grade, and are drawn more awkwardly. And of course, one run on Heavy for one win—while many others in this race are either unexposed or less proven in the muck. It gives the Matthew Brown trained 4yo every chance to win this race.

Tip: (6) Raise ‘Em Up $4.80 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: November 21, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: October 26, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

This is a great edition of the Sale Cup! Similar to the Benalla Cup, which we landed the prize with Harlech, this race sees the coming-together of some proven higher-class gallopers and some up-and-comers. Some of which have been competing in listed company, while others have struggled to break out of bm64 grade. For me, that makes it easy to strike through a few of them.

The clear favourite (4) Phaistos has come out of second behind Windstorm—what price would Windstorm be here? He has Zahra in the saddle and is great in all conditions, importantly, winning on Soft and Heavy. He gets a great draw and can drop in behind the leaders, saving energy, before getting a split when they fan out. He should be too good.

I was keen on (3) Romancer for the Seymour Cup last week, where he ran pretty solidly behind the subsequent winner, and fellow-competitor today, (2) All Too Huiying. You’re getting around $7.50 for both of them here. The latter has the better exposed form on wet, so it’s likely the result will be much the same, with Romancer taking the minor spoils. Neither of them have the class of Phaistos.

The threat on the Heavy could really come from (6) Exasperate who had an average result behind Future Score in the Cranbourne Cup, but had prior (on Soft) ran third behind Junipal & Shot Of Irish. That is good enough form to be winning here. And at a price of around $16 – he won’t be going around without carrying a few of my pennies.

There is also the lightly raced British import (8) Kenya who comes into contention with the condition of the track. Ran okay first-up, but look back to his overseas form and he has competed in group company, and even taken the scalp of McMunigal. So do not overlook.

Tip: (4) Phaistos $2.00 Unibet

Also Backing: (6) Exasperate $16 Bet365

Boxed first four: (4) Phaistos $2.00, (6) Exasperate $16, (8) Kenya $7.00, (2) All Too Huiying $7.00

Odds Last Updated: October 26, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: October 26, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

The last race on the card sees a number of good chances all come together. Let’s assume due to the course condition, and the fact this is the last of the day, that there will be a few scratchings.

(13) Metronome gets a nasty gate, but with scratchings should be pulled in closer. He has the pace to offset the wide draw regardless. If he doesn’t need to work too hard, he looks to have a class edge on many of these. The main competition, and where the market is leading, comes from horses stepping up in grade—while Metronome stays in the same class where he ran consecutive seconds behind Miss Polanski and Ears The Barman. Placed on Heavy going twice, we can feel somewhat confident he should handle the track—and we can also expect a wide swooping run to avoid the muck. At $6.00 he offers a good each-way play.

(3) Designer Chef is racing consistently and should not find this beyond his abilities—also proven on Heavy ground. For me, he is a genuine threat and could be a nice little saver.

Tip: (13) Metronome $6.00 Sportsbet