Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, December 23rd

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

(10) Rising Sphere does look the horse to beat in the opener. He led everywhere except the post at Geelong last start, just getting nabbed by a debutant who was backed into odds on and could be quite handy. The sectionals/times he ran from the front stacked up very well for the day.

 

(1) Aristo Missile ran on well and pulled up lame first up so can clearly improve here. The jockey switch is a definite downgrade, and the wide gate doesn’t help either.

 

(13) No Puzzle comes here 3^rd up and gets D Lane, who is the hottest jockey perhaps in the country at the moment.

 

Tip: (10) Rising Sphere $2.80 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Rising Sphere

Odds Last Updated: January 7, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

It’ll be interesting to see how this track plays. It’s got a bit of give in it, and there’s also a cutaway rail in play. It could mean making ground out wide is difficult, but either way I want to be with the leader here in (3) Narvaez. He comes here 3^rd up and looks ready to peak up to the 1600m. Both runs this prep have been full of merit over the 1400m, including last start when setting a very strong tempo at Flemington. He was only beaten 2.5L there whereas the horse that sat 2^nd was beaten over 8L. His only career win came 3^rd up at the 1600m, and with Nash going on he looks very hard to run down.

 

(1) Imperial Hilton was a strong debut winner and again ran very well 2^nd up in a fairly strong form race. He has to carry 62kg here and draws inside so maybe Willo holds him up and heads for the cutaway.

 

(6) Vidiano looks the other winning hope after running on behind Sensationalisation on debut, with that horse running a solid 2^nd at Flemington on Saturday.

 

Tip: (3) Narvaez $2.30 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN Narvaez

Odds Last Updated: January 7, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Jumping on the Lane train here in the form of (4) Orchestrate, who couldn’t have been more impressive at Mornington first up. She came from a long way back, making a sustained run to reel in the leaders comfortably, running some pretty slick sectionals home. Her final 200m was the 4^th best of the day, only ¼ of a second behind the 1000m race which was a slow early tempo. The obvious query here is the map, because she does draw wide again, but Lane does offset that a bit. In an open race, the $5.00 appeals for a mare that has clearly come back in excellent order.

 

(11) Vespertine looks the danger. She brought some solid 3yo form from her debut campaign and got the easy kill maiden out of the way first up, winning by 1.3L as the $1.70 favourite at Kyneton. She maps beautifully from barrier 4 and will have a head start on Orchestrate.

 

Tip: (4) Orchestrate $5.00 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Orchestrate

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(12) Part Time Lover looks ready to win. She hasn’t had a whole lot go her way in 3 runs this prep but looks to set up well here. Her run last start was the best of the prep behind the handy mare Brazen Song who got an easy lead and has run 2^nd at Caulfield since. Lane sticks with Part Time Lover and the form ties in easily with the favourite here.

 

I speak of (11) Moeen who ran on well first up behind Witchfulthinking, with that horse running 4^th in the Brazen Song race at Caulfield. She’s a lightly raced mare and should be improved here but does draw the carpark and should be forced to go right back. She’s an obvious chance but if Lane times his run well, Part Time Lover might be able to pinch a break in the straight and use her fitness advantage to fend off Moeen late.

 

Tip: (12) Part Time Lover $4.40 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Part Time Lover

Odds Last Updated: February 25, 2021, 11:21am (AEDT)

Good race between a couple of promising 4yo mares. (6) Livingstone Falls was a moral beaten on debut at Hamilton before atoning with a strong win at The Valley, racing 3 wide no cover but still putting them away comfortably. She draws wide again here so the map will be interesting, as the main danger draws even wider in 13.

 

(8) White Hibiscus ran a good race on her Australian debut, finishing 2^nd to Witchfulthinking. Her NZ form is obviously hard to line up, but she was regarded highly enough to take on a group 3 and then the group 1 Oaks, despite finishing a mile off them. Lane replaces Olly here which is a positive at the moment, but she goes from barrier 5 to barrier 13 and might be forced to settle near the rear.

 

They clearly look the two winning chances and the best horses going forward, but I can’t split them. It wouldn’t completely shock me to see something pinch the race on speed and I’m happy to stay out at the prices. If we get $4.00+ for Livingstone Falls, I’d be happy to have a small play.

 

Tip: (6) Livingstone Falls $3.50 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

 

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

Another tough one. (7) High ‘n’ Dry has been well backed early after a fairly luckless run first up over 1400m. He should’ve finished closer to Fundraiser, but he is still stuck on 1 win from 15 starts. The rise in trip suits but I fancy he’s better over 2000m, and at around $3.00 he looks short enough.

 

(2) Donndubhan has put in two good runs this prep and is suited at the 1600m. He should go forward from a wide gate but would prefer a bone dry track.

 

(8) Larrikin was solid first up in a bunched finish and is 5/10 at the mile, but they’re in easier grade.

 

Tip: (2) Donndubhan $7.50 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 4, 2021, 9:36pm (AEDT)

Interesting little 2100m contest here. We’ve got two horses coming off dominant maiden wins who raced against each other over 1600m two back. (10) Lorente started $2.20 favourite in that Kilmore race, settled just off the pace and came widest on the turn, going down by 0.7L in 3^rd. He then started $1.45 at Ararat and bolted in.

 

(17) Star Ines started $7.50 against Lorente and ran the best late sectionals up along the inside, only finishing 0.3L off the favourite in 4^th. He then went to Werribee and won by 6L. He ran a slightly faster overall time than the class 1 on the day.

 

In that class 1 was (15) Johandough who ran a better last 200m than Star Ines on the day as the $1.50 favourite. She should be approaching peak fitness 3^rd up but does draw the carpark.

 

I think the maiden form is the way to go, and Lorente is a slightly better price despite starting $2.20 against Star Ines and beating it home. Star Ines was better sectionally but didn’t have to around a horse. There’s very little between them, but I’ll be backing Lorente and saving Star Ines.

 

Tip: (10) Lorente $7.50 Sportsbet

Saver: (17) Star Ines $6.50 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Lorente, 0.5 units WIN Star Ines

 

Odds Last Updated: December 24, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

In a very open race, I could have something small on (6) Whittington Stone at $15.00. He started $3.50 favourite first up and sat outside the leader, fading late to be beaten nearly 5L. I’m happy to forgive that and put it down to race fitness and the 60.5kg (4.5kg more than the winner). He’s a horse that puts himself on speed and fights on strongly. He’s probably better suited at 1400m, but a bit of give in the ground will certainly help. Some of his maiden form around Hasseltoff reads well, as does his 3^rd to Muswellbrook and Street Tough in a bm70.

 

A few of these come out of a 1200m Moonee Valley race. There was almost nothing between them, although I’d lean the way of (10) Helavabel who ran on strongly. He draws barrier 15 here which isn’t ideal but looks ready to win.

 

(11) Night Express is a handy mare who raced wide without cover first up last prep and ran very well. She then came out and won by 4L in Adelaide. She’s another that draws very wide here.

 

Tip: (6) Whittington Stone $15.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units E/W Whittington Stone