Sha Tin Racing Tips: Sunday, December 12th

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2021, 3:27pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2021, 3:57pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2021, 4:27pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2021, 5:02pm (AEDT)

The first Group 1 is the Hong Kong Vase over 2400m.

(2) Glory Vase returns after romping in this race in 2019, where he scored by 3.5L. He has three wins from five starts at the distance, obviously relishes the firm ground being a Japanese horse, and although this year’s field might be slightly better than the one he beat last year, I think he’s the horse to beat again.

(1) Pyledriver is a Group 1 winner in the UK over this distance, beating a field of six at Epsom Downs in June. He resumed with a Listed victory at Lingfield a month ago and he’s won two from three when second up. Not sure he has the same level of form as the Japanese horse but he’s obviously very good.

(5) Mogul is such an interesting runner. He dominated this race last year, winning by 3L, but I think he struck a much easier field than what he faces this year. He beat up on a washed up Exultant and Columbus County when he won this race. He also comes into this year’s race first up, and he’s never won first up from four attempts. Aiden O’Brien does have a very good record in this race and in general when he brings runners to Hong Kong, so he has to be respected, but it’s a less than ideal setup.

(8) Ebaiyra is a French mare who has won at Group 2 level and placed at Group 1 level. The big concern with her has to be the track today. It’s going to be rock-hard and she’s never run on a firm track in her 10-start career. Yet to finish out of the top two when fresh though.

Tip: (2) Glory Vase $2.30 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2021, 5:42pm (AEDT)

Fascinating Hong Kong Sprint.

(4) Wellington was disappointing first up in the Jockey Club Sprint but he carried top weight against race-fit horses there and was unsuited. Much better suited to today’s race. He was the winner of the Chairman’s Sprint last season and with a good ride from the wide gate, can feature here at nearly double figure odds.

(12) Resistencia is bidding to become the first female winner of this race in at least 20 years. She has a terrific fresh record and did beat fellow Japanese raider Pixie Knight fresh last campaign in a G2. Pixie Knight turned the tables on her second up. Resistencia meets him better at the weights here and the key could be that they’re both fresh, which might suit the mare better.

(2) Pixie Knight was last seen winning the G1 Sprinters Stakes in Japan, where he beat Resistencia by 2L. That was the race Danon Smash contested last year before winning this race, so it’s a reliable form reference. Might have preferred him with a run under the belt here but no surprise if he wins.

(3) Danon Smash won this race last year and then won the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen in March, but has seemingly lost his form since then. He failed when he came here for the Chairman’s Sprint last season as the $2.25 favourite, and then failed as the $2.60 favourite first up in the Sprinters Stakes won by Pixie Knight. The only thing to take out of that is that he started favourite against the other two Japanese horses in that race, so on best form he’d go very close to winning again, but he’s hard to trust at the moment.

(5) Lucky Patch is currently in the best form of the locals, with back-to-back wins over many of these. (1) Hot King Prawn can never be discounted with his second up record, which reads six starts for five wins and a 2^nd.

Tip: (4) Wellington $10 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (12) Resistencia $7.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Wellington, 0.5 units WIN Resistencia

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2021, 6:22pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2021, 6:57pm (AEDT)

(1) Golden Sixty is bidding to make it 19 wins from 20 starts here. He couldn’t have been more impressive in his return in the Jockey Club Mile, which is the traditional lead up for this. He’s comfortably got the locals covered, it’s just whether there’s anything from abroad that can test him.

(3) Indy Champ is a dual Group 1 winner and ran in this race as favourite in 2019. He finished 7^th on that occasion but didn’t get a huge amount of luck. He comes into this second up after finishing 4^th in Japan first up. He has six wins second up so looks primed for this.

(2) Danon Kingly won the G1 Yasuda Kinen first up and then ran 2^nd in G2 company second up. He’s had two months off leading into this, which probably suits given he’s a very good fresh horse.

(9) Excellent Proposal can be thrown in at huge odds. He was a moral beat last start.

Tip: (1) Golden Sixty $1.55 Ladbrokes

Value: (9) Excellent Proposal to PLACE $4.80 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units PLACE Excellent Proposal

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2021, 7:37pm (AEDT)

The Hong Kong Cup has been dominated by the Japanese in recent years, winning four of the past six editions.

The best of the Japanese is (12) Loves Only You, who lines up for her final start today. She’s had success in Hong Kong before, winning the QE2 Cup in April. She then ran 2^nd in G2 company back in Japan, before winning a fillies and mares Group 1 over 2400m five weeks ago. Draws a lovely gate here and looks the one to beat.

(11) Lei Papale is another Japanese representative here. She was unbeaten in her first six starts, including a Group 1 victory by 4L back in April. But since then, she’s failed to win her next three starts. She’s started $2.10 and $2.90 in two starts this prep and only managed to run 4^th and 6^th. It’s hardly like she’s been disgraced, but the jury is somewhat out on her currently.

(4) Hishi Iguazu is the other Japanese horse, ridden by Joao Moreira. Won four on the bounce in easier company before resuming with a 5^th placing in the Tenno Sho at the end of October. Has a very good second up record but not sure he’s as good as the likes of Loves Only You, and he’s drawn poorly.

(10) Bolshoi Ballet could be the big value here for Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore. Has run in America his past three starts, has won three from four at the distance and is undefeated second up and always have to respect this stable in HK.

Tip: (12) Loves Only You $2.60 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Loves Only You

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2021, 8:17pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2021, 8:57pm (AEDT)