Sha Tin Racing Tips: Sunday, March 20th

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2022, 4:04pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2022, 4:34pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2022, 5:04pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2022, 5:34pm (AEDT)

(1) Lifeline Vision has run 2nd in two of his past three starts since dropping back down into Class 4 company, and all of those have been at this track and distance. The one race he didn’t place in he sat three-wide the trip so had obvious excuses, but still wasn’t beaten all that far. He ran 2nd to Running Glory three back, who I’m keen on later in the card, and the horse that ran 3rd behind him last start (Free Foal) has since come out and won.

(4) Country Boy has discovered form in his past handful of starts. He won over 1200m five starts ago where he beat Eason, who is a good horse. Country Boy then ran consecutive placings before saluting two starts ago over this track and distance. Forgive him for his run last start when caught three-wide the trip. He drops a kilogram in the weights from that effort and Zac Purton takes over the ride for John Size today. Just needs a good steer but with the rail in the A position, it should allow horses their chance from wide gates.

Tip: (4) Country Boy $5.00 Moneyball

Also Backing: (1) Lifeline Vision $8.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Country Boy, 0.5 units WIN Lifeline Vision

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2022, 6:05pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2022, 6:39pm (AEDT)

Buttering up on (7) Running Glory today after he was beaten as the short-priced favourite last start. He had to get a long way back from his wide gate on that occasion and was just left with too much to do, but I thought his effort was still good. Prior to that he won two races in succession in smart style, and even his first two career starts were very good with excuses. Draws off the track again today in barrier 12 but hopefully the rail in the A position allows horses from wide gates the chance to get home over the top. Needs a good steer, but think he’s a good horse.

Tip: (7) Running Glory $2.80 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Running Glory

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2022, 7:09pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2022, 7:40pm (AEDT)

The Hong Kong Derby is a terrific contest as usual, with Hong Kong’s best four-year-olds lining up over 2000m in the most prestigious race in the land.

I’m of the firm opinion that the result of today’s race will be completely dependent on the tempo. I’m predicting we’ll see one or two horses put a little bit of pressure on (1) California Spangle up the top, after he got things all his own way in the Classic Cup. The son of Starspangledbanner has six wins and two 2nds from eight starts and if Zac Purton can find the front from barrier 10 without using too much petrol, he’ll obviously be hard to beat again. The mid-stages are where the story is really going to be told though; if he gets one or two cheap sectionals leading into the straight, he’s going to be awfully hard to run down.

The run of (2) Romantic Warrior in defeat in the Classic Cup was huge, sitting three-wide the trip and still running home in the fourth-fastest final 400m to run 4th beaten 2.5L. That was his first career defeat in six starts, having previously rolled California Spangle in the Classic Mile. He draws better in barrier 8 today and if he can slot in midfield with cover, I think he can turn the tables.

(6) Senor Toba is a real stayer and comes here second up after finishing 5th in the Classic Cup. He ran 2nd in the Queensland Derby and was obviously purchased with one goal in mind – the Hong Kong Derby. No doubt he whole HK career to date has been tailored around having him ready to peak today. I think we’ll see his stablemate Rocket Spade ridden much more aggressively with blinkers on today to inject some pace into the race and therefore bring Senor Toba into it. He gets the gun draw with Joao Moreira on and we know he will be there at the end of 2000m. If it turns into a sit-sprint, he might struggle to have the turn of foot required to run them down, but that’s why I think they’ll be using Rocket Spade to make this a genuinely run 2000m.

Tip: (2) Romantic Warrior $3.40 Moneyball

Saver: (6) Senor Toba $5.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Romantic Warrior, 0.25 units WIN Senor Toba

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2022, 8:20pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2022, 8:55pm (AEDT)