Swan Hill Racing Tips: Tuesday, October 27th

Odds Last Updated: October 28, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

There has been quite a spirited push towards the unraced (11) Foxy Frida already—based entirely on its trial at Avoca where it won reasonably well. She ran wide and still managed to get the win without being asked for too much. At the same time, she was ridden along a touch while some of the others weren’t. So for me, the jury has to be out in terms of what it was racing against, and whether the jump-out was really that impressive.

(9) Bubbly Lass on the other had has had one race start running second on Soft ground at Geelong. She was seventh in running but closed out well. She has Harry Coffey riding, who is always a good solid option, and one of the Maher & Eustace senior options at country race meets like this. That shows intention, so happy to go with her on top, despite the price not being a spoil.

The other raced filly (12) Infitaah is not without claims.

Tip: (9) Bubbly Lass $2.70 Unibet

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Odds Last Updated: October 28, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

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This is a bit of a strange race. We have a $4.40 favourite (8) Queen Daenerys who is unseen. Screams alarm bells in terms of an upset.

The question is what other runners look likely? The obvious form guide coming into this is from those runners who have previously raced at this track and distance. And that covers quite a few of the main rivals in the market including (1) Arachnattack, (11) Amorosity, (2) Goggles Piasano, and (7) Piccadilly Street.

The latter two looked to have the most at those previous outings, where Goggles Piasano got the better of Piccadilly Street. Today one gets a good gate and claim (of Zoe Lloyd), while the other gets a terrible gate and senior jockey (Dean Holland). So it’s proving difficult to split them.

There is one unraced horse in this race (10) Yulong Phelps that did show some quality to come first in its recent jump-out. The Dabernig & Hayes stable do have some polish, so we can expect the colt to have come-on since that run. Considering all the unknowns here, my confidence level is not high, but happy to back the one that looks to have more upside.

Tip: (10) Yulong Phelps $7.00 Palmerbet

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2021, 12:52am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: October 28, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

We have previously tipped (2) Little Caleb at Tatura hoping that he was going to get that elusive win—and he got it. Given, he meets a field here that have raced in higher grades than him, but on that day he lead the pack and streaked away to win by over five lengths. The manner in which he won demonstrated what he is capable of—and we can expect the stable to target a similar strategy here. But it may be tougher with a number of leaders on the inside. The question could be the soft going, so keep an eye on the conditions. Noel Callow gets off and Lachlan Neindorf gets on, bringing the 1.5kg claim.

(1) Rock Tycoon is going to be ready to fire first-up and gets that valuable inside lane. So if there is one that we can expect to take it to Little Caleb, it’s him.

Tip: (2) Little Caleb $3.10 Unibet

Odds Last Updated: October 28, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

There is a field of 16 still in the market for this 1300 metre bm58 race. It looks wide open, and initially I didn’t have a lot of interest in getting involved.

However looking at the speed-map we can anticipate that (3) Miss Mitzie should be competing with (11) Wasabi for the lead positions. If the track is playing friendly to the leaders, they should be able to get away with some easy sectionals, and if they hold things up (rather than fight it out), they could be still in the finish. They have already met twice this preparation, with Miss Mitzie proving too classy on both occasions. Her last race at Horsham was disappointing, but that was behind Rotator who looks to be a pretty good horse.

There was $16 on offer, but that has been snapped up (guilty your Honour), however you can still get $9.50 simply due to the size of this field. Keen to take the each-way odds.

Tip: (3) Miss Mitzie $9.50 E/W Palmerbet

Odds Last Updated: October 28, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)