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Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 11th

Tim Geers provides his thoughts on every race at Warwick Farm on Wednesday.

WarwickFarmRacecourse

Midweek metro racing takes place at Warwick Farm this week, where we once again race on a very wet surface.

The track is currently rated a Heavy 10 for the seven-race card, with the rail out 5m from the 1000m-W/Post and 3m the remainder.

Tim Geers has provided his thoughts on every race below!

Best Bet: Race 6 – (10) Fearnought

Best Value: Race 7 – (2) Azarmin

Moneyball

216100

Race 1

Tab Hcp (0Sc) (1400m)
12:50pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Tab Hcp (0Sc) (1400m)
12:50pm (AEDT)

1. Political Debate (10) J: James Mcdonald (58kg) T: C J Waller
1.71.71.66
2. Samaritan (3) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57.5kg) T: J A O'shea
262620
3. Titanic Award (1) J: Tim Clark (57.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
6.577.1
4. Buillt (2) J: Brenton Avdulla (57kg) T: C J Waller
775.9
5. Deft Leopard (8) J: Jay Ford (57kg) T: Brad Widdup
181717.4
6. Dupont (6) J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg) T: Michael Freedman
111012.6
7. Lindermann (4) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
191815.2
8. Tango Fame (5) J: Chad Schofield (56kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
151516.2
9. Monastery (7) J: Andrew Adkins (55.5kg) T: David Payne
262620
10. Monfiducia (9) J: Tom Sherry (54.5kg) T: David Payne
313135

Odds Last Updated: May 11, 2022, 12:55pm (AEDT)

A field of just five two-year-old’s to go around in the day’s opener on a bog track.

Hard to make a case for many of these, with the four that have raced all having been comfortably beaten in their only starts.

(4) Built goes on top by default. He was beaten more than 6L on debut here at Warwick Farm a couple of weeks ago on a similar surface to what he faces today. That was over 1100m so he may have found that a touch sharp and the step up to 1400m will suit him better.

(2) Samaritan is the only one in the field that is unraced, but has trialled several times leading into his debut today. By Dundeel he should need the trip and he really wouldn’t have to show much to be a chance here.

Tip: (4) Built $2.50 TAB

Value: (2) Samaritan $10 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Built, 0.25 units WIN Samaritan

216100

Race 2

Proven Thoroughbreds (Bm68) (1300m)
1:25pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Proven Thoroughbreds (Bm68) (1300m)
1:25pm (AEDT)

1. Rebel Shadow (2) J: Tyler Schiller (61.5kg) T: G Portelli
665.4
2. Deficit (9) J: Tom Sherry (61kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
171717.2
3. Excelladus (4) J: Brenton Avdulla (59kg) T: John Thompson
4.854.85
4. Revivalist (14) J: Tommy Berry (59kg) T: P & P Snowden
816183
5. Democracy Manifest (3) J: James Mcdonald (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
2.252.22.35
6. Podium (6) J: Chad Schofield (58kg) T: C J Waller
131311
7. Bella Rouge (10) J: (57.5kg) T: Chris Waller
8. Deep Romance (12) J: Reece Jones (57.5kg) T: M J Dunn
172119.6
9. Fearnought (15) J: (57kg) T: Chris Waller
10. Mirra View (11) J: (57kg) T: Peter & Paul Snowden
11. Do Well Legend (7) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
343136
12. I'm Divine (13) J: Jason Collett (56.5kg) T: Edward Cummings
343425.5
13. River Snitty (5) J: Tim Clark (56kg) T: C J Waller
414130
14. Vivid Flash (1) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: C J Waller
5.55.54.75
15. Prefer To Be Ready (8) J: Ms Rachel King (54.5kg) T: Jay Hopkins
817185

Odds Last Updated: May 11, 2022, 1:25pm (AEDT)

(5) Democracy Manifest was set to go around last week but was a late scratching on vets advice after they found blood in one nostril. Obviously it was only a minor issue as he lines up today. Won well at his first start for the Waller stable and draws a lovely gate again today so should be very hard to beat.

(1) Rebel Shadow was impressive winning first up on the wet track. Looked in trouble before the turn but really picked up strongly in the straight to score comfortably. Given he was under pressure early last start, the step up in distance should really suit him and we know he loves the wet tracks. Think he’s the value.

(14) Vivid Flash continues to run well without much luck. Draws the inside barrier today which should give her a great run, but will the inside be the best place to be on the heavy 10?

(3) Excelladus was impressive breaking the maiden first up.

Will equal stake Democracy Manifest and Rebel Shadow.

Tip: (5) Democracy Manifest $2.00 TAB

Value: (1) Rebel Shadow $6.50 Moneyball

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Democracy Manifest, 1 unit WIN Rebel Shadow

216100

Race 3

First Justify Yearlings (Bm72) (2400m)
2:00pm (AEDT)

Race 3

First Justify Yearlings (Bm72) (2400m)
2:00pm (AEDT)

1. Feel The Rush (1) J: Brenton Avdulla (61kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
77.56.7
2. Monreal (7) J: Reece Jones (58kg) T: Matthew Smith
131213
3. Shameless Miss (4) J: Tommy Berry (57.5kg) T: C J Waller
2.62.42.75
4. Aquileon (3) J: Hugh Bowman (57kg) T: K A Lees
10119.7
5. Za Ceibas (5) J: James Mcdonald (55kg) T: C J Waller
3.33.42.95
6. Atonement (6) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
151613.4
7. Senza Dubbio (8) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: J A O'shea
11119.1
8. Turnaround Time (2) J: Tyler Schiller (54kg) T: J A Steinmetz
131414.2

Odds Last Updated: May 11, 2022, 2:05pm (AEDT)

The two Waller runners look to have this between them.

(5) Za Ceibas is nearing another win after saluting first up at Hawkesbury over 1500m. Two runs since have been OK, now gets McDonald back on, steps up to 2400m for the first time and could be ridden more positive.

(3) Shameless Miss won at Ipswich two starts ago before venturing back to NSW, where she ran 2nd to mudlark Arabolini over this distance at Kensington. Draws well for a nice run and will be right there in the finish.

(4) Aquileon can be the big improver. Was beaten a long way last start but gave them a bit head start.

Tip: (5) Za Ceibas $3.30 Ladbrokes

Saver: (3) Shameless Miss $3.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Za Ceibas, 0.5 units WIN Shameless Miss

216100

Race 4

Drinkwise Mile (Bm78) (1600m)
2:35pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Drinkwise Mile (Bm78) (1600m)
2:35pm (AEDT)

1. Bethencourt (6) J: Tom Sherry (61.5kg) T: Ms K Waugh
3.12.83.1
2. Tampering (1) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (61.5kg) T: K J Parker
131717.2
3. Get The Idea (8) J: Brenton Avdulla (58.5kg) T: J C Smerdon
667.1
4. Mach Schnell (2) J: Sam Clipperton (58.5kg) T: Joseph Pride
44.23.6
5. Above And Beyond (5) J: Reece Jones (57.5kg) T: G Portelli
212117
6. Sindacato (7) J: James Mcdonald (57kg) T: C J Waller
564.8
7. So Sneeky (3) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56kg) T: Ms A Turner
121210.2
8. Chateaux Park (4) J: Jason Collett (54.5kg) T: J C Coyle
9.59.58.4
9. Gunga Din (9) J: Tyler Schiller (54kg) T: K R Dryden
343434

Odds Last Updated: May 11, 2022, 2:39pm (AEDT)

(4) Mach Schnell was a good Australian debut first up at Hawkesbury and then relished the 1400m at Kensington when saluting on the heavy 9 last start. Now gets up to the mile on him new home track and should take some beating.

(1) Bethencourt grows a leg in the wet. His record on heavy ground now reads five starts for four top-two finishes. He was dominant at Randwick last time out and will make his own luck again today. Will be the horse to run down.

(7) So Sneeky next best at odds.

Tip: (4) Mach Schnell $3.10 Moneyball

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mach Schnell

216100

Race 5

Pinatubo New @ Darley (Bm72) (1000m)
3:10pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Pinatubo New @ Darley (Bm72) (1000m)
3:10pm (AEDT)

1. Off Shaw (4) J: Tom Sherry (61.5kg) T: J Rolfe
181518.2
2. Monte Ditto (8) J: Ms Alysha Collett (59.5kg) T: David Pfieffer
12129.9
3. Mr Magical (2) J: Tyler Schiller (59.5kg) T: Jamie Stewart
66.56.6
4. Quiet Riot (1) J: Tim Clark (59kg) T: Bjorn Baker
33.13.15
5. Washington Towers (7) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (58.5kg) T: Todd Smart
666.1
6. Reveal The Magic (10) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: P H Bloomfield
211917.4
7. Sachello (6) J: Reece Jones (55kg) T: M J Dunn
3.43.53.05
8. Twice As Special (3) J: Ms Louise Day (54kg) T: J C Coyle
151613
9. True Valentine (9) J: Jay Ford (54kg) T: P & M Cave
1269173
10. Tobermory (5) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Todd Smart
343433

Odds Last Updated: May 11, 2022, 3:14pm (AEDT)

(4) Quiet Riot won first up at Orange and then ran 3rd in a harder race than this last start at Kensington. I think he’ll find this assignment a touch easier and James McDonald retains the ride for Bjorn Baker. Will need a good ride to overcome the inside draw, which might not be the best place to be at this stage of the day.

(5) Washington Towers put two good wins together at Canberra before finishing midfield at Canterbury last start. Back to 1000m suits.

(3) Mr Magical goes well first up and has a good record on wet tracks and at this distance so he should be competitive fresh.

Tip: (4) Quiet Riot $2.90 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Quiet Riot

216100

Race 6

Shalaa @ Arrowfield (Bm72) (1200m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Shalaa @ Arrowfield (Bm72) (1200m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

1. Love Sensation (9) J: (61.5kg) T: K Corstens
2. Wild Rocket (3) J: Reece Jones (61.5kg) T: Kylie Kennedy
313135
3. Mosht Up (11) J: Ms Madi Derrick (60.5kg) T: Stephen Schofield
313422
4. And We Danced (13) J: (60kg) T: Chris Waller
5. Pleading (1) J: Tyler Schiller (60kg) T: Angela Davies
76.57.1
6. Dinado (4) J: Tim Clark (59kg) T: Richard & Will Freedman
616143
7. Lucky Sham (2) J: Ms Rachel King (59kg) T: R N Godbolt
131414.2
8. Daralina Belle (8) J: Jason Collett (58.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
5.56.55.6
9. Bella Rouge (5) J: Tommy Berry (57.5kg) T: C J Waller
3.23.43.25
10. Fearnought (10) J: James Mcdonald (57kg) T: C J Waller
4.54.43.95
11. Mirra View (7) J: Sam Clipperton (57kg) T: P & P Snowden
5.54.85.5
12. Lisdoonvarna (6) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56kg) T: Ms A Turner
10108.2
13. Vivid Flash (12) J: (56kg) T: Chris Waller

Odds Last Updated: May 11, 2022, 3:49pm (AEDT)

(10) Fearnought scrambled home to win first up but did sit three and four-wide throughout the race, so the effort was sound. She’s a daughter of one of the best wet trackers we’ve seen in Red Tracer so the conditions shouldn’t worry her, much like they didn’t last start. Wide draw again today but I think she can progress.

(11) Mirra View has won back-to-back races on heavy ground leading into today. Drops back slightly in trip but that might not stop her making it three on the bounce.

Looks between those two.

Tip: (10) Fearnought $2.80 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Fearnought

216100

Race 7

Vinery Yearlings (Bm72) (1400m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Vinery Yearlings (Bm72) (1400m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

1. Rangi Toa (10) J: Brenton Avdulla (62kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
3.43.43.4
2. Azarmin (9) J: Hugh Bowman (60.5kg) T: K A Lees
131313.2
3. Ita (14) J: Tim Clark (60kg) T: Bjorn Baker
5.565.7
4. Sindacato (3) J: (60kg) T: Chris Waller
5. Black Queen (8) J: Tom Sherry (59.5kg) T: C J Waller
161615
6. Naval Warfare (12) J: Tyler Schiller (59kg) T: R T Leemon
10110177
7. Bluff 'N' Bluster (4) J: Ms Louise Day (58.5kg) T: J C Coyle
262623.5
8. Finepoint (2) J: James Mcdonald (58kg) T: C J Waller
4.23.94
9. Glamour Fox (13) J: Jason Collett (57kg) T: Clare Cunningham
161615.6
10. Propose A Toast (5) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (57kg) T: R Weston & J Nisbet
888.1
11. Ashim (7) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
212117.4
12. Savvy Legend (6) J: Brock Ryan (56.5kg) T: L J Bridge
262620.5
13. Fields Of Honour (11) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: Bjorn Baker
262620.5
14. Bob's Your Uncle (1) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54.5kg) T: Craig Carmody
262626.5

Odds Last Updated: May 11, 2022, 4:24pm (AEDT)

(2) Azarmin drops back from the Group 3 Epona Stakes to a midweek BM72. She also drops from 1900m back to 1400m but two starts ago she did win a BM78 over 1550m on a heavy 9 at Canterbury. She has a good record here at Warwick Farm and if she is fit enough after a short break between runs, I think she can run a good race at each way odds.

(1) Rangi Toa took his record to three wins from four starts with a win on his Australian debut. That was on a heavy 9 and he carried 61kg so the conditions shouldn’t be an issue today and nor should the 62kg really.

(3) Ita rarely runs a bad race. Drops back from 2100m of the Orange Cup to a 1400m but does get JMac on, and we know she loves the wet.

Tip: (2) Azarmin E/W $14/$3.20 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Azarmin

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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