Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 11th

Race 1 Tab Hcp (0Sc) (1400m) 12:50pm (AEDT)
1. Political Debate (10) J: James Mcdonald (58kg) T: C J Waller		1.7		1.7	1.66
2. Samaritan (3) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57.5kg) T: J A O'shea		26		26	20
3. Titanic Award (1) J: Tim Clark (57.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker		6.5		7	7.1
4. Buillt (2) J: Brenton Avdulla (57kg) T: C J Waller		7		7	5.9
5. Deft Leopard (8) J: Jay Ford (57kg) T: Brad Widdup		18		17	17.4
6. Dupont (6) J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg) T: Michael Freedman		11		10	12.6
7. Lindermann (4) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: C J Waller		19		18	15.2
8. Tango Fame (5) J: Chad Schofield (56kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou		15		15	16.2
9. Monastery (7) J: Andrew Adkins (55.5kg) T: David Payne		26		26	20
10. Monfiducia (9) J: Tom Sherry (54.5kg) T: David Payne		31		31	35

Odds Last Updated: May 11, 2022, 12:55pm (AEDT)

A field of just five two-year-old’s to go around in the day’s opener on a bog track.

Hard to make a case for many of these, with the four that have raced all having been comfortably beaten in their only starts.

(4) Built goes on top by default. He was beaten more than 6L on debut here at Warwick Farm a couple of weeks ago on a similar surface to what he faces today. That was over 1100m so he may have found that a touch sharp and the step up to 1400m will suit him better.

(2) Samaritan is the only one in the field that is unraced, but has trialled several times leading into his debut today. By Dundeel he should need the trip and he really wouldn’t have to show much to be a chance here.

Tip: (4) Built $2.50 TAB

Value: (2) Samaritan $10 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Built, 0.25 units WIN Samaritan

Race 2 Proven Thoroughbreds (Bm68) (1300m) 1:25pm (AEDT)
1. Rebel Shadow (2) J: Tyler Schiller (61.5kg) T: G Portelli		6		6	5.4
2. Deficit (9) J: Tom Sherry (61kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou		17		17	17.2
3. Excelladus (4) J: Brenton Avdulla (59kg) T: John Thompson		4.8		5	4.85
4. Revivalist (14) J: Tommy Berry (59kg) T: P & P Snowden		81		61	83
5. Democracy Manifest (3) J: James Mcdonald (58.5kg) T: C J Waller		2.25		2.2	2.35
6. Podium (6) J: Chad Schofield (58kg) T: C J Waller		13		13	11
7. Bella Rouge (10) J: (57.5kg) T: Chris Waller
8. Deep Romance (12) J: Reece Jones (57.5kg) T: M J Dunn		17		21	19.6
9. Fearnought (15) J: (57kg) T: Chris Waller
10. Mirra View (11) J: (57kg) T: Peter & Paul Snowden
11. Do Well Legend (7) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56.5kg) T: C J Waller		34		31	36
12. I'm Divine (13) J: Jason Collett (56.5kg) T: Edward Cummings		34		34	25.5
13. River Snitty (5) J: Tim Clark (56kg) T: C J Waller		41		41	30
14. Vivid Flash (1) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: C J Waller		5.5		5.5	4.75
15. Prefer To Be Ready (8) J: Ms Rachel King (54.5kg) T: Jay Hopkins		81		71	85

Odds Last Updated: May 11, 2022, 1:25pm (AEDT)

(5) Democracy Manifest was set to go around last week but was a late scratching on vets advice after they found blood in one nostril. Obviously it was only a minor issue as he lines up today. Won well at his first start for the Waller stable and draws a lovely gate again today so should be very hard to beat.

(1) Rebel Shadow was impressive winning first up on the wet track. Looked in trouble before the turn but really picked up strongly in the straight to score comfortably. Given he was under pressure early last start, the step up in distance should really suit him and we know he loves the wet tracks. Think he’s the value.

(14) Vivid Flash continues to run well without much luck. Draws the inside barrier today which should give her a great run, but will the inside be the best place to be on the heavy 10?

(3) Excelladus was impressive breaking the maiden first up.

Will equal stake Democracy Manifest and Rebel Shadow.

Tip: (5) Democracy Manifest $2.00 TAB

Value: (1) Rebel Shadow $6.50 Moneyball

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Democracy Manifest, 1 unit WIN Rebel Shadow

Race 3 First Justify Yearlings (Bm72) (2400m) 2:00pm (AEDT)
1. Feel The Rush (1) J: Brenton Avdulla (61kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace		7		7.5	6.7
2. Monreal (7) J: Reece Jones (58kg) T: Matthew Smith		13		12	13
3. Shameless Miss (4) J: Tommy Berry (57.5kg) T: C J Waller		2.6		2.4	2.75
4. Aquileon (3) J: Hugh Bowman (57kg) T: K A Lees		10		11	9.7
5. Za Ceibas (5) J: James Mcdonald (55kg) T: C J Waller		3.3		3.4	2.95
6. Atonement (6) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54.5kg) T: Matthew Smith		15		16	13.4
7. Senza Dubbio (8) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: J A O'shea		11		11	9.1
8. Turnaround Time (2) J: Tyler Schiller (54kg) T: J A Steinmetz		13		14	14.2

Odds Last Updated: May 11, 2022, 2:05pm (AEDT)

The two Waller runners look to have this between them.

(5) Za Ceibas is nearing another win after saluting first up at Hawkesbury over 1500m. Two runs since have been OK, now gets McDonald back on, steps up to 2400m for the first time and could be ridden more positive.

(3) Shameless Miss won at Ipswich two starts ago before venturing back to NSW, where she ran 2nd to mudlark Arabolini over this distance at Kensington. Draws well for a nice run and will be right there in the finish.

(4) Aquileon can be the big improver. Was beaten a long way last start but gave them a bit head start.

Tip: (5) Za Ceibas $3.30 Ladbrokes

Saver: (3) Shameless Miss $3.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Za Ceibas, 0.5 units WIN Shameless Miss

Race 4 Drinkwise Mile (Bm78) (1600m) 2:35pm (AEDT)
1. Bethencourt (6) J: Tom Sherry (61.5kg) T: Ms K Waugh		3.1		2.8	3.1
2. Tampering (1) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (61.5kg) T: K J Parker		13		17	17.2
3. Get The Idea (8) J: Brenton Avdulla (58.5kg) T: J C Smerdon		6		6	7.1
4. Mach Schnell (2) J: Sam Clipperton (58.5kg) T: Joseph Pride		4		4.2	3.6
5. Above And Beyond (5) J: Reece Jones (57.5kg) T: G Portelli		21		21	17
6. Sindacato (7) J: James Mcdonald (57kg) T: C J Waller		5		6	4.8
7. So Sneeky (3) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56kg) T: Ms A Turner		12		12	10.2
8. Chateaux Park (4) J: Jason Collett (54.5kg) T: J C Coyle		9.5		9.5	8.4
9. Gunga Din (9) J: Tyler Schiller (54kg) T: K R Dryden		34		34	34

Odds Last Updated: May 11, 2022, 2:39pm (AEDT)

(4) Mach Schnell was a good Australian debut first up at Hawkesbury and then relished the 1400m at Kensington when saluting on the heavy 9 last start. Now gets up to the mile on him new home track and should take some beating.

(1) Bethencourt grows a leg in the wet. His record on heavy ground now reads five starts for four top-two finishes. He was dominant at Randwick last time out and will make his own luck again today. Will be the horse to run down.

(7) So Sneeky next best at odds.

Tip: (4) Mach Schnell $3.10 Moneyball

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mach Schnell

Race 5 Pinatubo New @ Darley (Bm72) (1000m) 3:10pm (AEDT)
1. Off Shaw (4) J: Tom Sherry (61.5kg) T: J Rolfe		18		15	18.2
2. Monte Ditto (8) J: Ms Alysha Collett (59.5kg) T: David Pfieffer		12		12	9.9
3. Mr Magical (2) J: Tyler Schiller (59.5kg) T: Jamie Stewart		6		6.5	6.6
4. Quiet Riot (1) J: Tim Clark (59kg) T: Bjorn Baker		3		3.1	3.15
5. Washington Towers (7) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (58.5kg) T: Todd Smart		6		6	6.1
6. Reveal The Magic (10) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: P H Bloomfield		21		19	17.4
7. Sachello (6) J: Reece Jones (55kg) T: M J Dunn		3.4		3.5	3.05
8. Twice As Special (3) J: Ms Louise Day (54kg) T: J C Coyle		15		16	13
9. True Valentine (9) J: Jay Ford (54kg) T: P & M Cave		126		91	73
10. Tobermory (5) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Todd Smart		34		34	33

Odds Last Updated: May 11, 2022, 3:14pm (AEDT)

(4) Quiet Riot won first up at Orange and then ran 3rd in a harder race than this last start at Kensington. I think he’ll find this assignment a touch easier and James McDonald retains the ride for Bjorn Baker. Will need a good ride to overcome the inside draw, which might not be the best place to be at this stage of the day.

(5) Washington Towers put two good wins together at Canberra before finishing midfield at Canterbury last start. Back to 1000m suits.

(3) Mr Magical goes well first up and has a good record on wet tracks and at this distance so he should be competitive fresh.

Tip: (4) Quiet Riot $2.90 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Quiet Riot

Race 6 Shalaa @ Arrowfield (Bm72) (1200m) 3:45pm (AEDT)
1. Love Sensation (9) J: (61.5kg) T: K Corstens
2. Wild Rocket (3) J: Reece Jones (61.5kg) T: Kylie Kennedy		31		31	35
3. Mosht Up (11) J: Ms Madi Derrick (60.5kg) T: Stephen Schofield		31		34	22
4. And We Danced (13) J: (60kg) T: Chris Waller
5. Pleading (1) J: Tyler Schiller (60kg) T: Angela Davies		7		6.5	7.1
6. Dinado (4) J: Tim Clark (59kg) T: Richard & Will Freedman		61		61	43
7. Lucky Sham (2) J: Ms Rachel King (59kg) T: R N Godbolt		13		14	14.2
8. Daralina Belle (8) J: Jason Collett (58.5kg) T: Matthew Smith		5.5		6.5	5.6
9. Bella Rouge (5) J: Tommy Berry (57.5kg) T: C J Waller		3.2		3.4	3.25
10. Fearnought (10) J: James Mcdonald (57kg) T: C J Waller		4.5		4.4	3.95
11. Mirra View (7) J: Sam Clipperton (57kg) T: P & P Snowden		5.5		4.8	5.5
12. Lisdoonvarna (6) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56kg) T: Ms A Turner		10		10	8.2
13. Vivid Flash (12) J: (56kg) T: Chris Waller

Odds Last Updated: May 11, 2022, 3:49pm (AEDT)

(10) Fearnought scrambled home to win first up but did sit three and four-wide throughout the race, so the effort was sound. She’s a daughter of one of the best wet trackers we’ve seen in Red Tracer so the conditions shouldn’t worry her, much like they didn’t last start. Wide draw again today but I think she can progress.

(11) Mirra View has won back-to-back races on heavy ground leading into today. Drops back slightly in trip but that might not stop her making it three on the bounce.

Looks between those two.

Tip: (10) Fearnought $2.80 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Fearnought

Race 7 Vinery Yearlings (Bm72) (1400m) 4:20pm (AEDT)
1. Rangi Toa (10) J: Brenton Avdulla (62kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott		3.4		3.4	3.4
2. Azarmin (9) J: Hugh Bowman (60.5kg) T: K A Lees		13		13	13.2
3. Ita (14) J: Tim Clark (60kg) T: Bjorn Baker		5.5		6	5.7
4. Sindacato (3) J: (60kg) T: Chris Waller
5. Black Queen (8) J: Tom Sherry (59.5kg) T: C J Waller		16		16	15
6. Naval Warfare (12) J: Tyler Schiller (59kg) T: R T Leemon		101		101	77
7. Bluff 'N' Bluster (4) J: Ms Louise Day (58.5kg) T: J C Coyle		26		26	23.5
8. Finepoint (2) J: James Mcdonald (58kg) T: C J Waller		4.2		3.9	4
9. Glamour Fox (13) J: Jason Collett (57kg) T: Clare Cunningham		16		16	15.6
10. Propose A Toast (5) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (57kg) T: R Weston & J Nisbet		8		8	8.1
11. Ashim (7) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56.5kg) T: Matthew Smith		21		21	17.4
12. Savvy Legend (6) J: Brock Ryan (56.5kg) T: L J Bridge		26		26	20.5
13. Fields Of Honour (11) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: Bjorn Baker		26		26	20.5
14. Bob's Your Uncle (1) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54.5kg) T: Craig Carmody		26		26	26.5

Odds Last Updated: May 11, 2022, 4:24pm (AEDT)

(2) Azarmin drops back from the Group 3 Epona Stakes to a midweek BM72. She also drops from 1900m back to 1400m but two starts ago she did win a BM78 over 1550m on a heavy 9 at Canterbury. She has a good record here at Warwick Farm and if she is fit enough after a short break between runs, I think she can run a good race at each way odds.

(1) Rangi Toa took his record to three wins from four starts with a win on his Australian debut. That was on a heavy 9 and he carried 61kg so the conditions shouldn’t be an issue today and nor should the 62kg really.

(3) Ita rarely runs a bad race. Drops back from 2100m of the Orange Cup to a 1400m but does get JMac on, and we know she loves the wet.

Tip: (2) Azarmin E/W $14/$3.20 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Azarmin