Racing Tips

Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 12th

Billy Bestford is looking to get the cash later in the day, betting up in races 4 and 6.

by
Billy Bestford
11 May 2021

Wednesday racing takes us to Warwick Farm where there is an intriguing 7 race card to dive into. There has been a bit of rain around in Sydney and the track is currently rated a heavy 8 with the rail out 3 metres the entire way around. There’s more rain predicted to fall overnight and throughout the morning so we should expect to be racing on a track in the heavy range.

Best Bet: Race 4 – (6) Sixgun

Best Value: Race 5 – (7) Express Courier

Billy Bestford brings you a full race by race preview and has highlighted his best bets and staking plan throughout the afternoon.

Race 1

Vinery Hcp (1400m)
12:50pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Vinery Hcp (1400m) 12:50pm (AEDT)
1. Giannis (3) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
2. Cotehele (6) J: Brenton Avdulla (58kg) T: J A O'shea	1.35	1.35	1.45	1.4	1.37	1.4
3. Greater Harlem (4) J: James Mcdonald (57.5kg) T: C J Waller
4. Mihocek (10) J: Regan Bayliss (57.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou	11	10	11	11	11.2	11
5. Celtic Harp (7) J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg) T: C J Waller	8.5	9	8.5	8.5	8.8	9
6. Cinque Torri (5) J: Ms Rachel King (56.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
7. Dark Rebel (1) J: Joshua Parr (56.5kg) T: Edward Cummings	16	17	18	19	16	16
8. Koondeeman (2) J: Tim Clark (55.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	8.5	8	8	8.5	7.6	8
9. Maurice's Choice (9) J: Keagan Latham (55.5kg) T: G Portelli	20	21	21	21	21.5	21
10. Hope In Your Heart (8) J: Andrew Adkins (54kg) T: K J Parker

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 12:52pm (AEDT)

With Greater Harlem scratched this morning, (2) Cotehele goes on top but will be a no bet race. Was a very impressive debut winner and looks above average. Will only be improved from that performance and this looks a winnable race. Market hasn’t missed early and looks short enough.

Tip: (2) Cotehele - $1.35 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Race 2

Darley 2021 Roster (Bm68) (1300m)
1:25pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Darley 2021 Roster (Bm68) (1300m) 1:25pm (AEDT)
1. El Buena (12) J: Campbell Rawiller (62kg) T: C J Waller
2. Tycoonist (1) J: Tom Sherry (61.5kg) T: C J Waller
3. Rubamos (7) J: James Mcdonald (60.5kg) T: C J Waller	3	2.9	3.1	3.3	2.85	2.8
4. Onchao (10) J: Joshua Parr (60kg) T: Mark Newnham	3.1	3.2	3.1	3.3	3.3	3.3
5. Supremo (6) J: Ms Rachel King (59.5kg) T: John Thompson
6. Cadenabbia (2) J: Tommy Berry (59kg) T: Annabel Neasham	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5
7. Fastconi (3) J: Brenton Avdulla (58kg) T: C J Waller	5.5	5.5	6	5	5.2	5.5
8. Salateen (11) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57.5kg) T: P & P Snowden	17	17	18	18	17.4	17
9. Hot Spring Gold (5) J: Lee Magorrian (57kg) T: C J Waller	18	17	18	17	19.2	19
10. Impressive Lass (4) J: Keagan Latham (57kg) T: Clare Cunningham	11	11	11	10	10.8	11
11. Vanderland (9) J: Tim Clark (57kg) T: Bjorn Baker
12. Scream And Shout (13) J: Regan Bayliss (56.5kg) T: J A O'shea
13. Leave Me Be (8) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54kg) T: C J Waller

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 1:27pm (AEDT)

Pretty strong BM68 here but happy to side with (7) Fastconi at an each-way price. Was first up since being gelded when a narrow 3rd in a stronger race than this over 1200m. Profiles nicely for this today, and can be a big improver 2nd up stepping out to 1300m.

(3) Rubamos will be hardest to beat. Was only narrowly beaten last start in a similar race to this and should be ready to peak 3rd up today. He was 4 weeks between runs there.

(2) Tycoonist resumes without being seen at the trials and has performed well in some strong form races. Can run a race fresh and will be a big market watch.

Tip: (7) Fastconi - $11/$3.40 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit EW Fastconi

Race 3

The Agency Real Estate (Bm72) (2400m)
2:00pm (AEDT)

Race 3 The Agency Real Estate (Bm72) (2400m) 2:00pm (AEDT)
1. Cutadeel (3) J: Jean Van Overmeire (61kg) T: Richard Litt	23	21	21	21	22.5	23
2. Feel The Rush (7) J: Ms Louise Day (61kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	6	5.5	5.5	5	6.1	5
3. Sound Of Cannons (5) J: James Mcdonald (60kg) T: J A O'shea	4.2	4.2	4.4	4.4	3.7	4.2
4. Brown Thomas (2) J: Ms Rachel King (58.5kg) T: G K White	9.5	9	9	10	9.9	8.5
5. Akatino (10) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56.5kg) T: Matthew Smith	9.5	9	9	10	9.7	8.5
6. True Marvel (8) J: Jay Ford (56kg) T: Matthew Smith	16	17	18	18	14.8	18
7. Writing Unexpected (9) J: Tom Sherry (56kg) T: J A Steinmetz	8.5	8	8	8	7.4	7.5
8. Lava (12) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54kg) T: Edward Cummings	7	6.5	6.5	7	7.1	6.5
9. Notabadharada (11) J: Reece Jones (54kg) T: J & G Lee	5.5	5.5	5.5	6.5	5.4	6
10. De Valera (4) J: Mathew Cahill (54kg) T: Clare Cunningham	27	26	31	34	23	26
11. Chief Kidder (6) J: Andrew Adkins (54kg) T: Mark De Montfort
12. Everly Girl (1) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Ms M Harrison

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 2:02pm (AEDT)

(2) Feel The Rush looks very well placed back in this grade today. Was last seen having her 2nd Australian start in the G2 Chairmans Handicap. She ran 5th there behind Quick Thinker and should be primed 3rd up now. Has been a winner 3rd up in the past and the stable is airborne at the moment.

(8) Lava can roll forward from the wide gate and should be nearing peak fitness now. Was a good run over this trip last start in a similar race and will take some catching.

Tip: (2) Feel The Rush - $4.75 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Race 4

Ranvet (Bm72) (1000m)
2:35pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Ranvet (Bm72) (1000m) 2:35pm (AEDT)
1. Golden Tycoon (4) J: Campbell Rawiller (63kg) T: G Mcfarlane
2. Invincible Lad (5) J: Brandon Griffiths (58.5kg) T: P & P Snowden	21	21	20	21	18.4	19
3. Derbari (1) J: Brenton Avdulla (58kg) T: Joseph Pride	6	6	5	6	4.95	5.5
4. Remlaps Gem (3) J: Christian Reith (58kg) T: S I Singleton	7.5	7.5	7.5	7	7.5	7.5
5. Accelerato (7) J: Tim Clark (57.5kg) T: Joseph Pride	11	11	12	12	10.6	11
6. Sixgun (10) J: Joshua Parr (57.5kg) T: Mark Newnham	1.7	1.75	1.75	1.85	1.86	1.85
7. Just A Flash (9) J: Mathew Cahill (56.5kg) T: A M Molloy	41	41	51	41	49	34
8. Up Trumpz (2) J: James Mcdonald (56.5kg) T: J M Cleary	10	10	11	10	11.2	9.5
9. Pearl Roan (6) J: Andrew Gibbons (55.5kg) T: S J Hodge	20	20	19	18	21	21
10. Our Finvarra (8) J: Jay Ford (54kg) T: R Weston & J Nisbet	81	71	61	71	73	71

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 2:37pm (AEDT)

(6) Sixgun is very lightly raced and has been trialling strongly in the lead up to this. Has performed very well on wet tracks, including a first up win followed by a good 5th behind Anders and Ole Kirk last prep. Will get back from the wide gate but should be letting rip late.

(3) Derbari is an out and out swimmer, having not missed the placings in 4 heavy track runs. Should enjoy the gun run from the low draw and if the 1000m isn’t too sharp, can win.

(4) Remlaps Gem just needs to handle the conditions to be a big chance. Has always shown plenty of talent and will strip fitter from a narrow first up defeat. Will be up on the speed and take some catching if he gets through the ground.

Tip: (6) Sixgun - $2.25 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 3 unit WIN Sixgun

Race 5

Xxxx (Bm72) (1600m)
3:10pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Xxxx (Bm72) (1600m) 3:10pm (AEDT)
1. Monsieur Sisu (11) J: Ms Louise Day (61.5kg) T: W P Cave	13	13	11	13	13.2	11
2. Time Raid (2) J: Tom Sherry (61kg) T: J C Deamer	10	10	9.5	11	9.4	10
3. Gemmahra (12) J: Campbell Rawiller (59.5kg) T: Ms G Markwell	3.7	3.6	3.6	3.9	3.85	3.5
4. Mercurial Lad (3) J: Jean Van Overmeire (59.5kg) T: B Joseph & P & M Jones	20	20	19	20	21	19
5. Tochi (13) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (58.5kg) T: R & L Price	18	18	19	18	19.2	19
6. Champagne Vega (4) J: Brenton Avdulla (57.5kg) T: Joseph Ible	6	6	6	6	6.3	6
7. Express Courier (8) J: Andrew Adkins (57.5kg) T: K R Dryden	15	16	17	17	13.2	17
8. Sir Aglovale (6) J: Tommy Berry (55kg) T: C J Waller	15	16	15	14	13	16
9. Azarmin (1) J: James Mcdonald (54.5kg) T: K A Lees	3.6	3.6	3.7	3.8	3.7	3.5
10. Lolita Gold (9) J: Unknown (54kg) T: N J Osborne
11. Roseirro (7) J: Mathew Cahill (54kg) T: T J Robinson	35	34	34	41	34	41
12. Tenorino (5) J: Ms Rachel King (54kg) T: K J Parker	20	20	19	20	16.2	21
13. Eden Vale (10) J: Jay Ford (54kg) T: Mark De Montfort	201	151	101	151	121	151

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 3:12pm (AEDT)

(9) Azarmin was enormous last start and could argue she was a certainty beat that day. Got squeezed and bumped at the top of the straight before getting over heels and flying home to just miss. Jmac takes the ride and so long as barrier 1 isn’t too much of a hindrance, she will be winning.

(3) Gemmahra is on the quick backup from last Wednesday. Gets through the conditions well and tackles this race 4th up in a prep which has been full of merit. Like the claim for Campbell Rawiller and only needs to repeat last week’s performance to go very close.

(7) Express Courier simply isn’t going as well as he was early in his career but he now finds a wet track and should be nearing peak fitness 3rd up today where he has had most of his success. Can be a big improver here and looks over the odds.

Tip: (9) Azarmin - $4.40 at Sportsbet

Value: (7) Express Courier - $15 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Azarmin, 0.25 unit WIN/0.75 unit PLACE Express Courier

Race 6

Robrick Lodge (Bm72) (1100m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Robrick Lodge (Bm72) (1100m) 3:45pm (AEDT)
1. Zeftabrook (14) J: Brenton Avdulla (59.5kg) T: K A Lees
2. Maggie Miss (4) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (59kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	26	26	21	26	25.5	23
3. Tiny (15) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (59kg) T: James Cummings	4.6	4.8	5	4.8	5	5
4. Nags To Riches (10) J: Unknown (58.5kg) T: Brad Widdup
5. Shores Of Avalon (1) J: Ms Rachel King (58.5kg) T: K R Dryden	67	61	51	51	69	61
6. Turnstyle (16) J: James Mcdonald (58.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker	4.4	4.5	3.4	4.4	4.5	4.6
7. Dual Escape (8) J: Serg Lisnyy (57.5kg) T: Denim Wynen	17	16	16	16	17.2	17
8. Chervil (13) J: Tim Clark (56.5kg) T: J C Coyle	15	15	15	15	14.8	15
9. Miss Spiteful (6) J: Ms Louise Day (56.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	6.5	7	6.5	7.5	6.4	6.5
10. Embeller (12) J: Keagan Latham (56kg) T: John Thompson	7.5	8	8	9	7.4	8
11. Sweeping Statement (9) J: Andrew Adkins (56kg) T: R J Quinton	31	26	20	26	20.5	26
12. Eye See Things (2) J: Tommy Berry (55.5kg) T: John Thompson	5	5	4.6	5	5.1	4.6
13. Pindarra's Dream (3) J: Christian Reith (55kg) T: Ms T Bateup	23	21	21	21	23.5	23
14. Let Me Think (11) J: Ms Alysha Collett (54.5kg) T: A J Cummings
15. Advance Party (7) J: Jean Van Overmeire (54kg) T: Bryce Heys	51	51	51	51	51	51
16. Testa's Flower (5) J: Unknown (54kg) T: T P Croft	41	41	41	41	43	41
17. Pearl Roan (17) J: Unknown (57.5kg) T: S J Hodge

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 3:47pm (AEDT)

(6) Turnstyle was unlucky not to win fresh and should only strip fitter from that. Has been a winner 2nd up before and now finds Jmac. Wide gate is the slight query but any luck will see her go close.

(12) Eye See Things ran 2nd to Nags To Riches last start and gets a slight weight swing in her favour today. Draws well in gate 2 and should be primed to strike 3rd up.

(7) Dual Escape isn’t the worst at a big price. Continues to race well at 7 years old and comes into this after a good win at Wyong and a solid 6th in a similar race to this. Gets onto her preferred heavy track today and can run a drum.

Tip: (6) Turnstyle - $5.00 at Ladbrokes

Value: (7) Dual Escape - $26 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Turnstyle, 0.25 unit EW Dual Escape

Race 7

Tab (Bm72) (1400m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Tab (Bm72) (1400m) 4:20pm (AEDT)
1. Bentley Magic (1) J: Tom Sherry (61kg) T: Matthew Smith
2. Zegalo (8) J: Joshua Parr (60.5kg) T: C J Waller	17	17	18	19	16.2	17
3. Snippy Fox (18) J: Campbell Rawiller (59kg) T: Joseph Pride	3.8	3.6	3.6	3.8	3.75	3.5
4. Adelaide's Light (17) J: Tommy Berry (58.5kg) T: P & P Snowden	3	3.1	3.2	3.4	3.15	3.1
5. Napoleon Solo (7) J: Regan Bayliss (58kg) T: P & P Snowden
6. Vienna Rain (5) J: Tim Clark (58kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	13	13	13	15	11	13
7. Lisdoonvarna (13) J: Keagan Latham (57kg) T: Ms A Turner
8. Bob's Your Uncle (11) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (57kg) T: Craig Carmody	26	26	21	21	25.5	26
9. Born A Warrior (14) J: Brenton Avdulla (57kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	9	8.5	8	8	8.1	8.5
10. Thistledo (20) J: Jean Van Overmeire (57kg) T: D P Blundell	41	41	41	41	43	41
11. Rebel Bro (16) J: Reece Jones (56.5kg) T: Matthew Smith	21	21	21	21	20	21
12. The Cartoonist (19) J: Ms Louise Day (56.5kg) T: W P Cave	201	201	151	151	151	201
13. Macushla (9) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (55.5kg) T: C J Waller	21	21	20	21	20	23
14. Buba (4) J: Robbie Dolan (55kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.6	7
15. Insensata (6) J: Ms Rachel King (54.5kg) T: J C Coyle	34	41	34	34	32	41
16. Rockarosa (2) J: Andrew Adkins (54kg) T: K R Dryden	31	34	34	34	34	34
17. Tri Nations (10) J: Unknown (55kg) T: Edward Cummings
18. Monsieur Sisu (3) J: Unknown (61.5kg) T: W P Cave
19. Impressive Lass (15) J: Unknown (55kg) T: Clare Cunningham
20. Fastconi (12) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: C J Waller

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 4:22pm (AEDT)

(3) Snippy Fox is a much better horse with her toe in the ground and has been building to a win. Looks suitably placed here and should take some catching with the 1.5kg claim for Rawiller.

(9) Born A Warrior continues to race consistently and is never far away. Only narrowly beaten last start over 1200m and I think stepping out to this trip is what he’s been looking for.

If (4) Adelaide’s Light can find some cover in running she will be hard to beat. Looks to have come back a much better horse this prep and is in search of a third straight win. This is tougher but still has plenty of room for progression and will just need a gun ride from the wide gate.

Tip: (4) Snippy Fox - $4.25 at SportsBetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Snippy Fox

Billy Bestford

Billy has been an avid racing fan ever since he and a few mates started a punters club once they turned 18. Following the initial punters clubs, he was properly hooked after landing a nice collect on Admire Rakti in the 2014 Caulfield Cup and has had a soft spot for Japanese horses ever since. Is a massive fan of 'blinkers first time' and has been known to enjoy a 'Hail Mary' multi. Loves punting across metro Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday but isn't scared to venture West late in the day to find a Pikey special.