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Ascot Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 12th

Tim Geers analyses the eight-race card at Ascot on Wednesday afternoon with his tips and best bets below.

Ascot-Racing

Ascot hosts its final midweek meeting of the season on Wednesday, ahead of the winter racing season at Belmont.

We have an eight-race card on rain-affected going, with the track rated a soft 5 and the rail out 14m.

Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card with his tips and betting strategy below.

Best Bet: Race 5 – (4) Tri For Us

Best Value: Race 7 – (2) Classic Rouge / (3) Crossaro

PlayUp

0

Race 1

Flying Colours Restaurant Mdn (1800m)
2:39pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Flying Colours Restaurant Mdn (1800m)
2:39pm (AEDT)

1. Glenaureen (7) J: Brad Parnham (58kg) T: Brian Kersley
313134312634
2. Tactical Ploy (5) J: Jett Stanley (58kg) T: Brian Rogers
1919202118.618
3. Forgotten War (3) J: Ms Madi Derrick (58kg) T: Russell Stewart
313434313034
4. Stroud (11) J: Peter Knuckey (58kg) T: S J Rowe
718191819381
5. Buckeye Bullet (12) J: Chris Parnham (57.5kg) T: Martin Allan
5.55.55.55.55.45
6. Renegade Ruler (10) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (57.5kg) T: Kieran Mcdonagh
3.73.73.73.83.853.6
7. Vanman (9) J: William Pike (57.5kg) T: G & A Williams
2.42.42.252.42.352.25
8. Hezapro (8) J: Shaun O'donnell (57.5kg) T: M Santich
1211111112.211
9. Cape Choice (4) J: Joseph Azzopardi (57.5kg) T: A G Durrant
2121212118.623
10. Subjugator (2) J: Jordan Turner (57.5kg) T: Brett Pope
212121212021
11. Teamwork (6) J: Laqdar Ramoly (57.5kg) T: N D Parnham
101126101126121126
12. Special Image (1) J: Ryan Hill (56kg) T: Ms E Van Merwyk
343434343534

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 2:42pm (AEDT)

This is an awful race so no need to get involved.

(7) Vanman comes up favourite. Wouldn’t be diving in at $2.40. He improved from his first up run to his second up run, but he was still beaten 2.8L last start. Steps up in trip which is a positive and Pike is back to ride.

(6) Renegade Ruler struck what I thought was a very weak race last start, but the winner then came out and should have won again. So, that form behind Piccola Signora might well stack up best here.

(5) Buckeye Bullet keeps battling and hasn’t been far away in his three starts.

(3) Forgotten War was awful first up but the best run of his career came second up last prep at this track at 100/1, so he can be included at blowout odds.

Tip: (7) Vanman $2.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

0

Race 2

Amelia Park Lodge Hcp (C1) (1200m)
3:14pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Amelia Park Lodge Hcp (C1) (1200m)
3:14pm (AEDT)

1. Albukhturi (5) J: Brad Parnham (61kg) T: C & M Gangemi
2.22.22.12.22.152.1
2. I'm Eugene (1) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (59.5kg) T: R W Williams
1010101211.210
3. Imprudent (2) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (58.5kg) T: B R Larsson
554.84.84.455
4. Lord Augustus (7) J: Chris Graham (58.5kg) T: Peter Lynch
1313121312.613
5. Saving Memphis (8) J: Ryan Hill (58.5kg) T: P H Jordan
313134413431
6. May Keep Him (3) J: Ms Victoria Corver (58kg) T: B G Lucas
1111111312.211
7. Mischievious Diva (4) J: Patrick Carbery (57.5kg) T: A D Mathews
665.56.56.55.5
8. Future Queen (9) J: Laqdar Ramoly (54.5kg) T: Coreen Maynard
465141615741
9. Sunol (6) J: Jason Whiting (54kg) T: Ms R Lockwood
141413151513

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 3:17pm (AEDT)

We see the West Aussie debut of (1) Albukhturi here and he finds an extremely winnable race. He’s been off the scene a fair while and has only trialled once leading into today’s first up run, but his class alone should see him be hard to beat. He has to carry 61kg but this is a horse that ran 2nd to Glenfiddich in the Mornington Sires’, and here he is lining up in a Class 1 on a Wednesday. This stable normally has them ready to go for their local debut and I believe his main target is the Belmont Guineas, so you’d expect him to be very hard to beat here if he’s going to be any hope there.

(3) Imprudent is always around the mark and does come out of a race that’s stacking up as a form reference. Draws well in barrier 2 and won’t be far away again.

(4) Lord Augustus won at huge odds first up last prep and now comes into this first up without a trial. That win did come on soft ground so he’ll get conditions to suit today and looks the value at double figure odds. I’d be taking Betfair starting price there.

(2) I’m Eugene next best.

Tip: (1) Albukhturi $2.25 Bet365

Value: (4) Lord Augustus $15 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.75 units WIN Albukhturi, 0.5 units WIN Lord Augustus (BSP)

0

Race 3

Tabtouch Better Your Bet (C1) (1200m)
3:49pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Tabtouch Better Your Bet (C1) (1200m)
3:49pm (AEDT)

1. Apple Schnapps (2) J: Brad Rawiller (59.5kg) T: L Smith
3.43.43.33.43.253.2
2. There's A Chance (1) J: Mitchell Pateman (58.5kg) T: Darren Taylor
2121212119.623
3. Written Matter (5) J: Jarrad Noske (58.5kg) T: C & M Gangemi
2.72.72.72.82.752.6
4. Datalka (7) J: Ms Kate Southam (58kg) T: P H Jordan
2731312629.531
5. Jay Dee (10) J: Jason Whiting (57.5kg) T: G J Mcpherson
6.56.55.56.56.27
6. Karli's Karma (4) J: Shaun O'donnell (57.5kg) T: Greg Cave
5.55.55.55.55.64.6
7. Argonauts (9) J: Jett Stanley (57kg) T: Mark Ford
2321212619.623
8. Arrowswift (3) J: Troy Turner (57kg) T: Ms R Lockwood
313131262826
9. Plaudable (6) J: Brad Parnham (55kg) T: D J Waldock
126126151126161151
10. Nodustonme (8) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (54kg) T: P D Tapper
191918172021

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 3:52pm (AEDT)

It catches my eye that (3) Written Matter lines up in a Class 1 here rather than a maiden, which suggests he’s probably got some ability. He comes into this on the back of a good trial win at Belmont and Jarrad Noske takes the ride at 58.5kg (he rarely rides at all these days).

(1) Apple Schnapps continues to run well and bumped into a smart one in Timely Outburst last start. Prior to that he finished midfield behind Solarize, who has since come out and won again. Draws well, won’t be far away.

(5) Jay Dee likes the wet conditions – her only career win came on soft ground and it also came first up at this distance. No trial leading into this but I’d expect her to be around the mark.

(6) Karli’s Karma really hit her straps at the back end of her last campaign. All the early money in betting has been for her but the big query is she resumes with bar plates on for the first time.

Tip: (3) Written Matter $2.90 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Written Matter

0

Race 4

Heineken Hcp (C3) (1000m)
4:24pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Heineken Hcp (C3) (1000m)
4:24pm (AEDT)

1. Schoolhouse Rock (2) J: Jordan Turner (61kg) T: G W Dupre
1112111011.211
2. No Mean Feet (3) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (59.5kg) T: Ms J Kelly
2021212121.523
3. Material Witness (1) J: William Pike (59kg) T: A G Durrant
2.22.22.22.22.22.15
4. Strike (7) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (57.5kg) T: C & M Gangemi
1819171615.419
5. Timely Outburst (6) J: Ms Nicole Hopwood (57.5kg) T: S J Miller
2.352.32.32.52.452.2
6. Smart Princess (5) J: Laqdar Ramoly (57kg) T: J P Taylor
1617171616.616
7. Janaura (4) J: Ryan Hill (56kg) T: P H Jordan
2121262120.523
8. Sumusu (8) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (55.5kg) T: Rebecca Wallrodt
618181817781

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 4:27pm (AEDT)

(5) Timely Outburst looks the class runner here. She’s been dominant in her two career starts and comes off a first up win here over this track and distance. The soft ground is somewhat of an unknown but she should jump, put herself right on speed and be very hard to beat.

(3) Material Witness has won two from three this prep, with a 0.2L defeat to Time Scale splitting the wins. Draws the inside and gets Pike, and has won on soft ground. Tactics will be interesting with Pike vs Nicole Hopwood.

(1) Schoolhouse Rock has the proven form on the board. I think he’s a very good horse and the $10 does appeal, but he might just be better over 1200m next start. Even so, expect him to be very competitive here despite carrying top weight fresh.

Tip: (5) Timely Outburst $1.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Timely Outburst

0

Race 5

60Th Bday J Antartis (0Mwly) (1400m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

Race 5

60Th Bday J Antartis (0Mwly) (1400m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

1. Son Son (7) J: Ms Victoria Corver (62.5kg) T: A G Durrant
2. Prize Pursuit (3) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59kg) T: J F Miller
3. Bragwell (5) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (58kg) T: S J Wolfe
4.24.4444.354.4
4. Tri For Us (2) J: Chris Parnham (58kg) T: A G Durrant
2.62.62.52.82.52.5
5. War Warrior (6) J: Brad Rawiller (58kg) T: D L Morton
5.555.555.35.5
6. Fletcher Road (8) J: Ryan Hill (57kg) T: R C Mcpherson
2121262123.526
7. Neurologic (1) J: Mitchell Pateman (57kg) T: Martin Allan
8. Perfect Gem (4) J: William Pike (56kg) T: G & A Williams
3.13.232.93.33.3

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 5:02pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on (4) Tri For Us here, who comes off a very impressive win at this track and distance on heavy ground last week. She’s on the quick back-up today and if she repeats what she did last week, she’ll be very hard to beat.

(8) Perfect Gem resumed with a win at Northam as the odds-on favourite. Not sure what it beat there but you always have to respect the runners for these connections.

(5) War Warrior will go forward. He won over track and distance last start but did get a dream run throughout.

Tip: (4) Tri For Us $2.10 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Tri For Us

0

Race 6

Salinger Hcp (C1) (1400m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Salinger Hcp (C1) (1400m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

1. Lonehand Larry (5) J: Jett Stanley (60.5kg) T: Hayden Ballantyne
2.052.12.052.22.151.9
2. Elafella (8) J: Brad Rawiller (59.5kg) T: L Smith
3.63.73.93.53.454
3. Mightiness (2) J: William Pike (59.5kg) T: A G Durrant
8.588.58.58.47.5
4. Hinchinmose (6) J: Peter Hall (59kg) T: C G Willis
126126101101111126
5. Sky Five (7) J: Brad Parnham (59kg) T: Brett Pope
262631262726
6. Rock This Country (1) J: Ms Madi Derrick (58kg) T: Robyn Cottman
776.576.77
7. Marlini (3) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (57kg) T: Ms D Baillie
8. Regal Dividend (4) J: Laqdar Ramoly (56.5kg) T: N D Parnham
121210121211
9. Winnie's Wine (9) J: Jason Whiting (54.5kg) T: G C Ballantyne
2326212121.526
10. Taxi (10) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (54kg) T: R C Mcpherson
616767515371

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 5:43pm (AEDT)

(1) Lonehand Harry drops from Saturday grade to Wednesday grade and back to a Class 1 from a Graduation Handicap. He was only beaten 0.25L in that race last start, which followed up a good first up win, so he really should be hard to beat in this with the 4kg claim.

(2) Elafella bolted in by 6L last time we saw him. That was on soft ground at Pinjarra, and he’ll get similar conditions today. However, the track that day really suited frontrunners and I think his margin was a little bit flattering.

(6) Rock This Country has failed in six goes on soft ground but he’s a different horse this prep with the new stable and ahs to be included.

(3) Mightiness has changed stables from the Williams team to Adam Durrant.

Tip: (1) Lonehand Harry $1.85 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Lonehand Harry

0

Race 7

All Flags Signs And Banners-C3 (1600m)
6:20pm (AEDT)

Race 7

All Flags Signs And Banners-C3 (1600m)
6:20pm (AEDT)

1. Lord Lonsdale (1) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (60kg) T: Kieran Mcdonagh
54.655.55.34.4
2. Classic Rogue (10) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (59kg) T: S J Wolfe
9998.59.19
3. Crossaro (11) J: William Pike (59kg) T: Patrick Keating
1313141513.414
4. Said No One Ever (5) J: Brad Rawiller (59kg) T: D L Morton
554.84.84.74.8
5. Speedbird (9) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (59kg) T: D & B Pearce
3.53.63.33.43.553.6
6. Peri Peri Para (3) J: Peter Knuckey (58kg) T: K J Mifflin
2626342628.526
7. Yulong Earth (6) J: Jason Whiting (58kg) T: M W Bairstow
8. Chili Is Hot (7) J: Mitchell Pateman (57.5kg) T: G C Ballantyne
87.57.57.58.17
9. King Of Judah (4) J: Brad Parnham (57kg) T: Summer Dickson
212121212023
10. Altamont (8) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (55kg) T: N D Parnham
2126212120.531
11. Artie's Jewels (2) J: Laqdar Ramoly (55kg) T: Ms K Kersley
9.510998.410

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 6:22pm (AEDT)

Something on a couple at odds here.

(2) Classic Rouge will relish the soft conditions today. He’s had six starts on soft ground for two wins and two placings. He’s been racing well all prep and probably just didn’t get things go his way last start. Happy to give him another chance at double figure odds.

Notably Pike goes on (3) Crossaro for Pat Keating. He was beaten nearly 9L on his WA debut at Pinjarra last start but he was very heavily supported in betting. Pike replaces the 4kg claimer today and they put the lugging bit on as he hung in last start. Something small on at $23.

Tip: (2) Classic Rouge $10 Ladbrokes

Value: (3) Crossaro $23 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Classic Rouge, 0.25 units WIN Crossaro

0

Race 8

Mumm Champagne (0Mwly) (1200m)
6:55pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Mumm Champagne (0Mwly) (1200m)
6:55pm (AEDT)

1. Guns Of Navarone (10) J: Laqdar Ramoly (61kg) T: N D Parnham
1011101110.411
2. Masquerade (11) J: Peter Knuckey (59.5kg) T: Ms K L Grantham
617171718371
3. Super Ex (9) J: Ms Tyla Becker (59.5kg) T: Luke Fernie
5.55.5555.25
4. Diablerie (4) J: Mitchell Pateman (58.5kg) T: Summer Dickson
4.84.84.84.84.74.8
5. Speedy Miss (5) J: Joseph Azzopardi (58.5kg) T: D & B Pearce
2626262626.526
6. Island Missile (7) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56.5kg) T: C & M Gangemi
8.58.588.57.57.5
7. Peko (12) J: Troy Turner (56kg) T: Jordan Rolfe
414141414551
8. Sun Power (2) J: Shaun O'donnell (56kg) T: Campbell Mccallum
1718161618.218
9. Beffunjar (3) J: Brad Parnham (55kg) T: N D Parnham
111110121010
10. Brave Dream (1) J: William Pike (54.5kg) T: A G Durrant
2.62.52.52.52.552.5
11. Dam Ready (6) J: Jason Whiting (54kg) T: M W Bairstow
12. Reidy (8) J: Ms Madi Derrick (54kg) T: Ms V Harper
201151101101191126

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 6:57pm (AEDT)

Looks a lovely little set up for (1) Guns Of Navarone here, who has raced in Listed, 66+, 72+ and 78+ company all preparation. He now drops back to a No-Metro-Win race on a Wednesday, and the 2kg claimer goes on to bring him down to 59kg. He looked very well placed and is a good each way bet.

(6) Island Missile normally takes a run to come good but he did go well first up last prep. He also normally goes better on firm ground but his sole win last campaign was on a soft 5. He should run well.

(10) Brave Dream ended last prep with back to back wins and one of those was on a soft 7 track. Has had two trials leading into this, draws the inside for Pike and looks hard to beat.

Tip: (1) Guns Of Navarone E/W $8.00/$2.40 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Guns of Navarone

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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