Ascot Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 12th

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 2:42pm (AEDT)

This is an awful race so no need to get involved.

(7) Vanman comes up favourite. Wouldn’t be diving in at $2.40. He improved from his first up run to his second up run, but he was still beaten 2.8L last start. Steps up in trip which is a positive and Pike is back to ride.

(6) Renegade Ruler struck what I thought was a very weak race last start, but the winner then came out and should have won again. So, that form behind Piccola Signora might well stack up best here.

(5) Buckeye Bullet keeps battling and hasn’t been far away in his three starts.

(3) Forgotten War was awful first up but the best run of his career came second up last prep at this track at 100/1, so he can be included at blowout odds.

Tip: (7) Vanman $2.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 3:17pm (AEDT)

We see the West Aussie debut of (1) Albukhturi here and he finds an extremely winnable race. He’s been off the scene a fair while and has only trialled once leading into today’s first up run, but his class alone should see him be hard to beat. He has to carry 61kg but this is a horse that ran 2^nd to Glenfiddich in the Mornington Sires’, and here he is lining up in a Class 1 on a Wednesday. This stable normally has them ready to go for their local debut and I believe his main target is the Belmont Guineas, so you’d expect him to be very hard to beat here if he’s going to be any hope there.

(3) Imprudent is always around the mark and does come out of a race that’s stacking up as a form reference. Draws well in barrier 2 and won’t be far away again.

(4) Lord Augustus won at huge odds first up last prep and now comes into this first up without a trial. That win did come on soft ground so he’ll get conditions to suit today and looks the value at double figure odds. I’d be taking Betfair starting price there.

(2) I’m Eugene next best.

Tip: (1) Albukhturi $2.25 Bet365

Value: (4) Lord Augustus $15 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.75 units WIN Albukhturi, 0.5 units WIN Lord Augustus (BSP)

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 3:52pm (AEDT)

It catches my eye that (3) Written Matter lines up in a Class 1 here rather than a maiden, which suggests he’s probably got some ability. He comes into this on the back of a good trial win at Belmont and Jarrad Noske takes the ride at 58.5kg (he rarely rides at all these days).

(1) Apple Schnapps continues to run well and bumped into a smart one in Timely Outburst last start. Prior to that he finished midfield behind Solarize, who has since come out and won again. Draws well, won’t be far away.

(5) Jay Dee likes the wet conditions – her only career win came on soft ground and it also came first up at this distance. No trial leading into this but I’d expect her to be around the mark.

(6) Karli’s Karma really hit her straps at the back end of her last campaign. All the early money in betting has been for her but the big query is she resumes with bar plates on for the first time.

Tip: (3) Written Matter $2.90 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Written Matter

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 4:27pm (AEDT)

(5) Timely Outburst looks the class runner here. She’s been dominant in her two career starts and comes off a first up win here over this track and distance. The soft ground is somewhat of an unknown but she should jump, put herself right on speed and be very hard to beat.

(3) Material Witness has won two from three this prep, with a 0.2L defeat to Time Scale splitting the wins. Draws the inside and gets Pike, and has won on soft ground. Tactics will be interesting with Pike vs Nicole Hopwood.

(1) Schoolhouse Rock has the proven form on the board. I think he’s a very good horse and the $10 does appeal, but he might just be better over 1200m next start. Even so, expect him to be very competitive here despite carrying top weight fresh.

Tip: (5) Timely Outburst $1.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Timely Outburst

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 5:02pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on (4) Tri For Us here, who comes off a very impressive win at this track and distance on heavy ground last week. She’s on the quick back-up today and if she repeats what she did last week, she’ll be very hard to beat.

(8) Perfect Gem resumed with a win at Northam as the odds-on favourite. Not sure what it beat there but you always have to respect the runners for these connections.

(5) War Warrior will go forward. He won over track and distance last start but did get a dream run throughout.

Tip: (4) Tri For Us $2.10 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Tri For Us

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 5:43pm (AEDT)

(1) Lonehand Harry drops from Saturday grade to Wednesday grade and back to a Class 1 from a Graduation Handicap. He was only beaten 0.25L in that race last start, which followed up a good first up win, so he really should be hard to beat in this with the 4kg claim.

(2) Elafella bolted in by 6L last time we saw him. That was on soft ground at Pinjarra, and he’ll get similar conditions today. However, the track that day really suited frontrunners and I think his margin was a little bit flattering.

(6) Rock This Country has failed in six goes on soft ground but he’s a different horse this prep with the new stable and ahs to be included.

(3) Mightiness has changed stables from the Williams team to Adam Durrant.

Tip: (1) Lonehand Harry $1.85 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Lonehand Harry

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 6:22pm (AEDT)

Something on a couple at odds here.

(2) Classic Rouge will relish the soft conditions today. He’s had six starts on soft ground for two wins and two placings. He’s been racing well all prep and probably just didn’t get things go his way last start. Happy to give him another chance at double figure odds.

Notably Pike goes on (3) Crossaro for Pat Keating. He was beaten nearly 9L on his WA debut at Pinjarra last start but he was very heavily supported in betting. Pike replaces the 4kg claimer today and they put the lugging bit on as he hung in last start. Something small on at $23.

Tip: (2) Classic Rouge $10 Ladbrokes

Value: (3) Crossaro $23 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Classic Rouge, 0.25 units WIN Crossaro

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 6:57pm (AEDT)

Looks a lovely little set up for (1) Guns Of Navarone here, who has raced in Listed, 66+, 72+ and 78+ company all preparation. He now drops back to a No-Metro-Win race on a Wednesday, and the 2kg claimer goes on to bring him down to 59kg. He looked very well placed and is a good each way bet.

(6) Island Missile normally takes a run to come good but he did go well first up last prep. He also normally goes better on firm ground but his sole win last campaign was on a soft 5. He should run well.

(10) Brave Dream ended last prep with back to back wins and one of those was on a soft 7 track. Has had two trials leading into this, draws the inside for Pike and looks hard to beat.

Tip: (1) Guns Of Navarone E/W $8.00/$2.40 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Guns of Navarone