Pakenham Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 12th

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 12:27pm (AEDT)

Not much between the two favourites. (8) Ain’t She Cute has form around some decent horses last prep and hit the line fairly well first up. Trained here, I expect she’ll handle the synthetic.

(5) Our John Boy started $1.75 on debut and just missed. The extra 100m is in his favour and he’ll be well respected again.

Tip: (8) Ain’t She Cute- $2.25 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 1:02pm (AEDT)

The form around (6) Rambeau is easily the best on paper. He ran 3^rd in the Clockwise Classic on debut and wasn’t far off smart 2yo’s Shaquero and Finance Tycoon in two races on the Gold Coast. Jumped out well and draws to get a nice run just behind the speed. Hard to beat.

(1) Golden Monkey has to be respected given Kah is riding for Clayton Douglas. Anything she touches turns to gold at the moment and if the horse gets a clear run from barrier 1 he’s jumped out well enough to figure.

(17) Brazen Boy is very interesting. He was all the rage off a huge Morphettville trial win but drifted badly on debut and was well beaten. He hasn’t trialled as explosively this time in and it looks like they’re trying to teach him to settle off speed.

Tip: (6) Rambeau- $3.20 at Bet365

Value: (17) Brazen Boy- $10.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Rambeau, 0.25 units WIN Brazen Boy (BSP)

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 1:37pm (AEDT)

(5) Next Step Berrima was good on debut at Geelong. That wasn’t the strongest maiden but he maps well and with natural improvement should be winning soon.

(11) Swindon Lass resumes over 1400m which looks okay. She ran in the Oaks last year and was beaten a long way. She might need further but this isn’t the strongest maiden.

(12) Back In The Day worked through the line okay on debut over 1100m and clearly needs further. Gets straight to 1400m which should help.

(4) Next Ride has trialled well enough and strikes a winnable race on debut.

Tip: (5) Next Step Berrima- $1.95 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

 (5) Heroic Fighter looks the hardest to beat here. He’s coming off a fairly dominant win over 2200m here last start where he led all the way. Kah takes the ride from barrier 2 which should see a similar set up and he’ll take running down.

(4) Think Champayne got his 2^nd win of his career last start in an average race at Swan Hill. Drops back to 2000m but the run prior at Sandown was good enough for this and Maher/Eustace have such a good record with stayers.

(3) Prince Alby is progressing nicely this prep and does come out of a Mornington race behind Rosseau who was off the map and won at Caulfield Saturday.

(6) Epsom Days was awful last start but is good enough at his best.

Tip: (5) Heroic Fighter- $2.90 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Heroic Fighter

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 2:47pm (AEDT)

(4) Reciprocation will be hard to beat and the market reflects that. His debut win at Benalla off the back of some nice jumpouts was very good, beating Yulong Command who has been very competitive in city 3yo races since.

(8) Sweet Sixteen has done nothing wrong this prep, winning well at two starts. She’ll get back as she did last start which can be tricky on the synthetic.

(1) Marlion’s Dream is another who has done nothing wrong. He’s trained here and won both starts on the turf here over 1200m. The debut was very good given he badly missed the start, and he beat a handy field last start when jumping cleanly and sitting closer. Tricky ride for Josh Richards from barrier 9 but he should go well again.

(11) Comica sat outside the lead and won well on debut, beating a subsequent Warrnambool winner. Drawn wide, she’ll go forward and should run well again. 

Reciprocation will be very hard to beat but is short enough at $1.80. Marlion’s Dream each way can give the favourite a race.

Tip: (1) Marlion’s Dream- $6.50/1.95 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5/1 units E/W Marlion’s Dream

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 3:22pm (AEDT)

Another odds on favourite with (10) Quesadilla who again will be hard to beat. Her last three runs have all been good in stronger mare’s races, and she has won on the synthetic which is always a positive. $1.75 doesn’t get me particularly interested but she should be winning.

(6) Aquagirl looks the danger. She faded last start in harder grade behind Muntaseera but the run prior when only 2.1L off Minhaaj reads very well for this. Trained here and with 54.5kg she can run a big race.

(5) Jagged Edge gets Kah and is good enough at her best but needs to find some form.

(1) Final Man is another with the talent but would’ve preferred the heavy track at Sale.

Tip: (6) Aquagirl- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Aquagirl

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 3:57pm (AEDT)

(2) Kurabui is a progressive mare, unbeaten in two starts. $1.90 is a touch short, I’d be inclined to play late because I think we’ll get even money given she’s first up and draws a bit awkwardly. Kah goes on first up which is a good lead and the connections are fairly bullish.

(3) Lady D’oro was good first up over 1200m and should appreciate 1400m 2^nd up. She’s a consistent sort but is another that draws wide.

(10) Make Mine Hennessey has the talent and 1400m will definitely suit, but she does get back in her races and that can be difficult on the synthetic tracks.

(4) Perennial next best.

Tip: (2) Kurabui- $2.00 at Unibet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Kurabui (BSP)

Odds Last Updated: May 12, 2021, 4:32pm (AEDT)

Yet another odds on favourite with (1) Bermadez owning the market. He led and absolutely bolted in on debut at Geelong on soft ground. Kah takes the ride and a repeat of that effort will see him hard to beat, but he’s another that’s short enough at $1.70 given it’s his first look away from soft ground and onto synthetic.

(3) Skywolf got the job done as the $1.45 favourite first up. He managed to settle on speed over 1200m there so I’d expect Mcneil to try and land on pace from barrier 1 here, perhaps on the back of the favourite.

(4) Zoutellus is another that can run well. I thought he ran well last start when given no peace, only beaten 2.2L by Real Sensation at Flemington. Maps to land 1-1 and can run well.

(7) Answer Me Hussy next best.

Tip: (3) Skywolf- $4.80 at Sportsbet

Value: (4) Zoutellus- $8.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Skywolf, 0.25 units WIN Zoutellus