Werribee Racing Tips: Sunday, December 6th

Odds Last Updated: December 7, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: December 7, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Trainer Phillip Stokes is finding some form, and he has the short-priced favourite going around here in (6) Pacific Rim. Five starts for 2 places the Choisir gelding gave his best performance last start. That was over 1547 metres at Geelong on a Heavy track. At the time of writing we have a Good track, but with rain likely, we have to work towards a Soft track. And this will work in his favour. The odds are pretty skinny, but considering there is very little else in this contest, he is a pretty sensible bet.

(10) Benefactor is the main threat after a placing Tatura and has Damian Lane on board. A negative is that she hasn’t shown much when starting on Heavy. Considering there are only 7 runners, it’s not worth playing anything each-way, so taking the favourite.

Tip: (6) Pacific Rim $1.70 TAB

Odds Last Updated: December 7, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: December 7, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: December 7, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

My on-top selection is (5) Johandough who looks to have a little class edge on this field. The 4 year-old mare has had 13 starts with a single win and five places. Her last run in CL1 was a defeat to Chief Altony & Hasseltoff, which is far from poor form. Likewise, she has placed behind Lunar Flare and a fourth behind Persan. She has not raced on Heavy, but has placed twice on the Soft. She rates on-top and despite a wide-gate, where she should have the speed to come across to sit alongside the leader—most likely (2) Lord Goldberg—she should be really hard to beat.

(6) Mr Canford Man is a danger, and comes in with a pretty similar record, with a second to Algiers not a bad reference. (4) Adonis Kick is the next best.

Tip: (5) Johandough $2.05 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: December 7, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

There are only six runners in this one at the time of writing. And the favourite (7) Miss Albania looks to be vulnerable, in what will prove to be one of those small-field tactical type races. She comes in immediately after her maiden victory where she won by 0.4 lengths, which doesn’t look too impressive to get favouritism here. The times were good, but that was more about the track, not the horses.

(1) Cupid’s Bow has been competing in bm64 grade races placing behind some decent gallopers. She has 2 wins from 12 starts—but also placed 7 times. Importantly, she has won at this track (from one attempt) and never been out of the prize money at this distance. She is first-up today and has quality statistics on that front too (3:1w,1p). The Soft track shouldn’t be an issue either.

The other one that can win is (6) Island Joy who looks to have the premium form lines. The Ellerton/Zahra filly has had 5 starts for a win and 2 places. She has placed second behind Crosshaven last preparation, and a seventh behind September Run this preparation. The distance looks to be suitable and the Soft going will be to her liking. She goes on top.

Tip: (6) Island Joy $3.20 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: December 7, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

A second tier group of horses go around in the Werribee Cup with only a couple with Group or Listed credentials. The Patrick Payne runner (1) Double You Tee is the favourite and the top-weight in the field. Predictably he gets Billy Egan in the saddle. The Written Tycoon gelding has won 8 races, but you need to track back over a year to find the last victory. There are a few positives, including that he likes this distance range and can adjust to all track conditions. He is always there about, placing behind Persan and Exemplar this preparation. He is going to be competitive (and a certain first four inclusion), but the price is a little short (noting he has already received quite some market support). The concern is the sticky inside gate where he’ll need to either split through them, or circle the entire field, in order to win.

Another one he recently placed behind is (2) Mongolian Marshal, who beat him last start. Admittedly, it was by a lip. Today he gets an additional 2kg difference. In that race he also beat home Batholomeu Dias, and ran fourth to Nonconformist in a Group 3 before that. He doesn’t win out of turn, and he just had his turn. The question will be whether he can hold his form. He gets in well in this race overall, but there are just a few queries—explaining the double figure odds.

The Jolly trained (4) Andrea Mantegna has been racing, and peaking in the bm74-bm82 range, but found the bm90 last start too tough. He has been racing in career best form, and we should expect another bold showing. He gets the gun draw and will bounce out and lead this field. If they go slow, he can build momentum and be hard to get past. He needs to be included into the exotics.

Beating Andrea Mantegna to the line last start, to place third, was (3) Hang Man who looks to be the biggest improver in the field. Now out to the 2000 metres, he has shown some quality, with two recent places. He gets a weight advantage on Andrea this time too. The surface may be the query with limited success on the Soft-Heavy range, so factor that into your thinking. He also gets an inside gate where he can jump and drop in one or two back along the fence, getting cover in running, and needing only a fair degree of luck in the finishing.

Tip: (3) Hang Man $4.60 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: December 7, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: December 7, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)