Cranbourne Racing Tips: Friday, November 27th

Odds Last Updated: November 28, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The evening commences with an eight horse field maiden over 1500 metres. There are two in the market here that come in with the higher-quality form-lines for this maiden. (4) Supreme Leader, trained by Archie Alexander, looked stylish when beaten first-up over 1400 metres. He just couldn’t find enough in running to beat the subsequent winner Regal Bellarina. Regal Bellarina then went on to place second in a bm58 behind Witchfulthinking who absolutely donkey-licked the field. She is certainly up to this—but worth noting she didn’t beat the remainder of the field by any significant margin.

The other likely runner is (3) Seb Song who placed second behind classy galloper Shelby Cobra (if you ignore her last run). The third runner was a couple of lengths behind him. He then went to Donald over 1350 metres and placed second to another sharp one Kohli. They crossed the line almost together, and then put a margin on the field similar to the extent Regal Bellarina put on Supreme Leader. It was a run full of merit.

The two leading chances draw alongside each-other on the outside of the track. So equal balance given to the gate. We were on Seb Song that day—and we are not getting off him today. (2) Midnight Rambler is the next best while (5) Lil’ Rich Girl is one for the trifectas and first fours.

Tip: (3) Seb Song $2.45 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: November 28, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Another maiden but this time over the 1300 metres, with a few unseen and a few only lightly raced. It is probably a weaker maiden than the first, so we find a wider field. We have previously tipped (10) Jeehaan from the Dabernig & Hayes stable. The exosphere gelding has placed behind Rainbiel first up, then Sahara Song, and then most recently Chawinda, who are all pretty handy horses. He has been posting the best times when comparing the raced brigade in this field, and looks well-placed to knock over this maiden.

The threat comes from the Craig Williams steered (4) Mighty Feat and the Busuttin/Young trained (3) Gen Wine. While the chances of (9) Ayahuasca cannot be ruled out. The Price/Kent runner placed in a trial after showing some greenness in running. Any improvement could come after another one or two races—so one to watch.

Tip: (10) Jeehaan $3.40 Palmerbet

Odds Last Updated: November 28, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This is one of those races we normally don’t want to get too involved. The $1.60 short-priced favourite looks like a good thing here. Craig Williams will be under pressure here to ensure (4) Winsum wins one. The Wandjina colt is taking on a field of varied quality maiden gallopers here, following an impressive little jump-out. Last preparation he raced once, and that was in the Blue Diamond Prelude where he ran seventh to Hanseatic. Not a bad quality race to kick off a career. The jump-out is probably the reason for the short price however.

Outside of him, really there is not much that looks likely. But if you hate taking favourites, the main danger (5) Yulong Progress also finished behind Hanseatic at another race.

Tip: (4) Winsum $1.60 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: November 28, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This race is a tough one to have any confidence in—wide field where all the runners have had their opportunities, and yet none have shown anything too stylish. All but one is untested above the 2600 metres. The favourite (8) Wellsford comes into this after another run at this track at the shorter 2060 metres. He gets the support based on the quality of the maidens he has faced, coming in behind the likes of Exalted Crown (most recently) and High Emocean in a bm78—which did look a bridge too far. He has competed at 2400 metres in the past (including that run against High Emocean), so the distance shouldn’t be too much of a query.

(4) Jakk’s Right on the other hand has been in weaker company, but placed second over the 2500 metres. He might be the one that sticks on with Wellsford if the others drop off. Overall there are too many unknowns here to get overly interested. Based on form lines, Wellsford gets the nod—but it is with low confidence.

Tip: (8) Wellsford $2.80 Palmerbet

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

Pretty keen on the chances of (6) Narvaez here first-up for the Waterhouse/Bott stable. The team are known for the great jumps, and Craig Williams (who could have a great night) should bounce in a handy spot either leading or alongside (7) Obedience. The Vancouver colt is dropping back in grade here after taking on some hand 2YO races last preparation. His third to Tommy Gold and seventh behind Cherry Tortoni are the highlights. He looks to be the class runner here, and if there is market support, then could be one of the better bets on the program.

(4) Foxgossip has a little bit of talent also, so he will be in there despite a disappointing first-up run in a bm64. (2) Tycoon Thunder is the best of the rest.

Tip: (6) Narvaez $2.90 TAB

Odds Last Updated: November 28, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The obvious runner here is (6) Knowles who comes into this bm70 after competing in listed grade. It wasn’t exactly a super run, and arguably she disappointed a few people not finishing in the money (she normally does her best work fresh). The stable must feel it was sub-par to drop her back here now, but at the same time, finishing behind the likes of Ancestry and Garner is nothing to be too dismissive of. The query is the track, and whether the leaders are getting an easy time of it. If they are, Knowles could be too far back to capitalise over the 100 metres. Conversely, if there are horses running on, than she comes right into contention. Watch and bet accordingly.

The threat is (1) Hidden Legend, who despite drawing wide, has the pace to come across and make the early running. First up statistics are pretty good, and has performed at this grade. (3) Brazen Brando is the other one that can make his presence felt.

Tip: (6) Knowles $2.90 Palmerbet

Odds Last Updated: December 14, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

This is another wide open affair with plenty of winning chances—but no clear stand-outs. (3) Whittington Stone has arguably the best form-lines coming into this, competing at reasonable races. He drops in grade slightly but doesn’t have a great first-up record. He has competed in nine races and been in the money seven times—so expect him to give a usual consistent effort here. The price is not overly generous considering the breadth of the chances here.

Winning form is good form—and there a few last start winners jumping up to this grade. (8) Casino Nicconi won pretty stylishly last time in a maiden race, but the jump to a bm64 win is not the easiest assignment. (12) Fixated comes here with the same equation, and looks to have his work cut-out. Another runner under the odds—despite the stable and jockey combination. (4) Our Foxwedge is another last start winner who comes here after a bm58 grade success. The seven year-old races consistently in that grade but rarely breaks the bm64 grade (placing second last time he took it on).

Interestingly all four runners above, have drawn the four outside gates—making their task even tougher. Whittington Stone has the pace to overcome it, while the others will be looking to slot in somewhere handy. Considering the depth and difficulty here, there are two worth a small play, and consider taking the field in the quaddie.

Tip: (10) Our Foxwedge $10.00 Palmerbet

Also Backing: (8) Casino Nicconi $8.00 Palmerbet

Odds Last Updated: January 9, 2021, 12:52am (AEDT)

This is a pretty tough way to end the night—and the big question is whether we’re willing to back (6) Punkzy after she missed the start in the past two races. The jump in distance will assist, but she remains one win from ten starts. She can’t be excluded from exotics, but pretty keen to take her on and find something with better odds.

We landed a win on (7) Tugga War last race at lovely odds, but unsure whether he can succeed at this higher grade. He is super consistent and gets a good gate where he can take the lead. (3) All Too Terrific dropped back from fmb70 to take out a bm58, and should be up to this task. He gets a pretty wide draw however, and he drops back, so like Punkzy he will need to run on. If the track plays accordingly they both come into contention.

(4) Pay The Ransom comes here after a pretty solid maiden win, and draws a gate where he can be off-pace. At the price of around $15.00 he looks a pretty good each-way play. The chances don’t end there.

Tip: (4) Pay The Ransom $17 Sportsbet

Also backing: (3) All Too Terrific $4.60 Sportsbet