Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, December 19th

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

I was keen on (7) Wilchino last week when she was entered to run but she was scratched from that and lines up today instead. She’s had two career runs and now returns from a lengthy spell, more than 15 months off the track. She’s trialled once leading into her resumption and her trial was good, beating Domineer with a further 5L back to the third horse. Parnham on for Dan Morton, draws well in 4 and should be hard to beat.

(4) Petite La Femme returns from a spell as well. She’s run 2nd in both starts when first up so she should race well fresh at double figure odds.

(5) Universal Pleasure has placed in all five career starts. She’s had her chances but she draws the inside with no weight on her back so she’ll be very competitive in a race like this.

Tip: (7) Wilchino $1.90 Unibet

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Wilchino

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Good little two-year-old race here.

I backed (4) Policiere on debut after a really nice trial and she ran 4th, but she was trapped wide for a good deal of the race. I thought her effort to be beaten less than 2L was good and with the benefit of the inside draw today, along with the booking of William Pike, I think she’ll be awfully hard to beat.

(3) Flying Missile was a moral beat last start when badly held up behind the stablemate (1) Ultimate Command. Ultimate Command led and Flying Missile was trapped on the rail for the entire straight. That won’t be the case today as Flying Missile will likely come across to sit outside Ultimate Command in the lead, and from there I think she can turn the tables.

Pretty happy to have a decent bet on Policiere here and save on Flying Missile.

Tip: (4) Policiere $3.25 Sportsbetting

Saver: (3) Flying Missile $3.40 Bet365

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Policiere, 1 unit WIN Flying Missile

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(1) Madam Torio won easily first up and beat Toscana who then came out and won her next start, so she looks the obvious choice, but at $1.70 you can leave me out. She won easily first up last prep and then failed second up, so with that in mind I’ll play around her given the odds.

(3) Keep Your Feet had four starts last prep and was ridden by Kate Southam twice and Chloe Azzopardi twice. Suddenly, Pike goes on first up this prep. The form around Clairvoyance and Watch Me Dance looks exceptionally strong. With $5.00 for her and $1.70 for Madam Torio, this is the way I’d be leaning.

(2) All Day Session drops heavily in class.

Tip: (3) Keep Your Feet $5.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Keep Your Feet

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Terrific race.

(1) Aberdeen Queen looks ready to peak now, third up from a spell and up to the mile. She’s been good in two starts back, with a slightly unlucky run first up and then a sound effort when coming from back in the field at Pinjarra last start. There looks a decent bit of speed here which should bring her into the race at each way odds.

(10) She’s Got Merit gets one of the biggest jockey changes in the State, with Chris Parnham replacing Michelle Hagley and also picking up barrier 1 in the process. I was keen on her last start where she sat three-wide the trip, so with $27 on offer today I’ll go again.

(12) Solaia bounces back with a good run in the Lee-Steere Classic last start. Back up to the mile is a slight query but she’s been smashed in early betting.

(5) Tradensia isn’t hopeless and of course the favourite (3) Dark Mission must be included as well.

Tip: (1) Aberdeen Queen $7.60 Sportsbetting

Value: (10) She’s Got Merit $27 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Aberdeen Queen, 0.25 units WIN She’s Got Merit

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

The day’s feature looks a procession for (2) Truly Great who of course comes into this as the last-start winner of the G1 Kingston Town Classic. He’s given the indication all prep that the rise in distance will suit him down to the ground so the step up to 2200m looks ideal. Chris Parnham steered him to victory in the Kingston Town but gets replaced by William Pike today and if he’s anywhere near his best he should win this in a canter.

(1) Trap For Fools was well supported last start and gave nothing else a look in, leading all the way to win the Towton Cup. He’s now undefeated from three starts over the track and distance and he’ll give a sight up front.

Tip: (2) Truly Great $1.46 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

I thought (1) Midnight Blue was one of the best bets on the card in a harder race last start and he was scratched in fear of how many ratings points he would cop had he won. He instead comes to an easier race this week carrying top weight, but if he turns up at his best this is all over. He draws awkwardly in barrier 11 but Pike gets back aboard replacing Carleen Hefel and with even luck I think he wins.

(7) Mr Delegator is the value and the only danger of beating him. He’s a $7.50 chance and should jump to the front and give a good sight. He jumps from 1600m to 2200m but he did a similar thing last preparation and won, so he’ll give the favourite something to chase.

Three-year-old (4) Em Tee Aye was brave in defeat last start but now steps up to 2200m and must be a query at the trip, purely as he’s never run it before.

Tip: (1) Midnight Blue $2.95 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 3 units WIN Midnight Blue

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

The barrier is probably the only thing stopping me declaring (3) Chantrea here. She didn’t get a great deal of luck first up when she was cluttered up on the rail in the straight, poking through late to be narrowly beaten. That was over 1400m and the step up to 1600m is going to be much appreciated for a mare that’s already won up to 2200m. Again, the map is the tricky part but with any luck I think she wins.

(8) Serenity Bay was huge first up, as she normally is, and she’s been kept fresh for her second up run today. She probably doesn’t need to be that far back today and if she reproduces that first up run, she’ll be right in the mix.

(1) Dance Music should lead and give a good sight.

(9) Special Choice next best.

Tip: (3) Chantrea $3.20 Bet365

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Chantrea

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

(6) Prim And Proper was my best value bet of the day when she ran first up and she was slaughtered, sitting four-wide the trip off a hot tempo and tailing out to finish second last. Her second up record is very good so I’m tipping her to bounce back today, and the softer draw should help her. 1200m is a slight query but at double figure odds, she’s my best value once again.

(4) Skinnen Tins was another I backed last start at huge odds, and another that was slaughtered, also sitting wide without cover throughout. Drawn awful again but don’t be surprised to see her run well.

(1) Miss Frost should take plenty of beating after winning last start, while (5) Dew West comes off a win at Bunbury last start, but I thought she had absolutely everything go her way that day. She was my best bet on that occasion but I’ll be against her today.

Tip: (6) Prim And Proper $14.20 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Prim And Proper

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

What a race this is to close out the day.

(8) Resortman is obviously the horse to beat but he’s short enough at $2.60 in a race of this depth and stepping up from 1100m to 1400m. He’ll put himself right on speed and is the one they have to beat, but there’s a couple at decent odds I’ll be hoping can beat him.

(4) Lorentinio led all the way to win first up over track and distance in this grade. Laqdar Ramoly takes 3kg off so he gets in 1.5kg lighter at the weights for that win. He goes well second up and has a great record at the track and distance so from barrier 1, he should lead and take plenty of beating. $8.00 is a decent bet.

(3) Luke’s Gold is also over the odds at $21.50. He ran huge last start over 1200m, beaten 0.4L over a distance short of his best. Back up to 1400m is the key today. He’s got a great record at the track and distance and should be finishing hard down the outside.

(13) Ration Aly is the other at a very juicy price of $13. She had no luck at all last start at a crucial stage of the straight. I dare say with clear running she goes very close to winning that Jungle Dawn Classic. From the wide draw, she’s going to go back but at least she’ll get a chance to wind up. No shock to see her winning this.

Tip: (4) Lorentinio $8.00 TAB

Value: (3) Luke’s Gold $21.50 Sportsbetting & (13) Ration Aly $13.20 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Lorentinio, 0.5 units WIN Luke’s Gold, 0.5 units WIN Ration Aly