Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, January 30th

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

We kick off the card with a Westspeed Platinum Maiden, which are typically very ordinary races. We often see these types of horses turn up week after week in these races, trying to pick up the bonus cash associated with winning one. That’s why I’m pretty keen on (4) Sichern here, who is the least exposed horse in the race with just one career start to his name. That was at Pinjarra, where he was held up until about the 200m mark, hooked off heels to the wide outside, and steamed home in the fastest final 200m of the entire meeting. The winner was What About Moi, who is about $7.00 in a harder race later on the card. With any luck here, he surely proves very hard to beat against a bunch of horses that are well exposed.

(9) Molly Magee is knocking on the door and gets a few gear changes so should be very competitive and looks the logical danger to the favourite.

Tip: (4) Sichern $2.60 WinnersBet

Betting strategy: 2.5 units WIN Sichern

 

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

Expecting the favourites to fight this out. Giving another chance to (8) Amelia’s Chant, who was backed from about $2.50 into $1.60 on debut but failed. The blinkers come off and the tongue tie goes on, and notably, Pike sticks with her despite that defeat last start. Respecting that weight of money she received on debut and think she can improve sharply today.

(5) Talkaboutyou gets Chris Parnham on for Martin Allan and comes off a good trial win at Belmont. Tactics will be interesting with Amelia’s Chant drawn inside her but I would expect Talkaboutyou to probably roll forward to sit outside the lead. If the favourite is below par as she was first up, no doubt this will be the horse to capitalize.

I thought the recent trial of (11) My Dilemma was very good. She was making strong headway in behind the leaders when it looked like Laqdar Ramoly basically strangled her to the line. So while the result of the trial says she ran 4^th, I thought her work was very good. The money has come early with the $12 gone, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see her give this a good shake.

Tip: (8) Amelia’s Chant $2.55 Sportsbetting

Value: (11) My Dilemma $7.50 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Amelia’s Chant, 0.5 units WIN My Dilemma

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

Outstanding race this one. We see the return of (2) Kissonallforcheeks who was a last-start Listed winner. She’s had eight weeks off and is set to head to Melbourne but runs fresh over 1100m here. She has the runs on the board and is the class runner, but she’s drawn awkwardly out in barrier 10 and 1100m is potentially short of her best. With a couple of smart types engaged, it makes for a very intriguing race.

The X-factor in the race is (7) In The Boat, who justified his $1.28 quote on debut at Bunbury with an effortless win. He defeated Hot Zed, who has since come out and won in town by 4L. Should find the lead here and will be interesting to see how he measures up against some good horses.

(9) Vane Tempest was absolutely torched last start after a dominant win first up at Pinjarra. She needs to improve against this calibre of horse but she does get a big jockey change with Pike replacing Ryan Hill.

(4) Our Danni should come across to sit outside the leader and is racing in good form.

Some queries about Kissonallforcheeks but that’s why she is $2.70. Small bet on In The Boat for me to find out how good he really is. The map favours him.

Tip: (7) In The Boat $4.45 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN In The Boat (Betfair SP)

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

He’s short at $1.90 but he could be a pretty good horse, (6) Last Of The Line. He was good first up when a huge drifter in betting, before winning seven days later on the quick back-up. He’s now got three wins from four starts at the track and distance, and four wins from his six career starts. He should get a sweet run from barrier 3 here and with even luck, he probably wins again.

I backed (3) Cryptic Love two starts ago at big odds when it did very little, though the Pontiff Paul Harvey does tend to give up when they’re not a chance of winning. Prior to that she ran 12^th but actually should have been right in the finish. The apprentice went on last start and her luck changed, coming from well back to zoom along the inside and win at huge odds. We’re not getting $71 today but this mare is going much better than just a fluke win last start, so I wouldn’t be discounting her from running well again. Would look to take SP rather than $8.00 fixed as I suspect she will drift.

(5) Phoneme probably wasn’t suited leading last start when beaten a touch over 2L by Last Of The Line. He’s a better horse with a sit and that will be the plan here. With the 2kg weight swing on the favourite, he can bounce back.

Pike goes on (2) Red Publisher who arguably should have been right in the finish last weekend.

Tip: (6) Last Of The Line $1.90 Ladbrokes

Value: (3) Cryptic Love $8.00 (take Betfair SP)

Betting strategy: 2.5 units WIN Last Of The Line, 0.5 units WIN Cryptic Love

 

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

I reckon the two Brett Pope runners can run a bit of a race here at big odds.

(9) Duck Feet’s form looks awful, but he always needs a couple of runs back from a break before he starts to hit his straps. His third up record is actually quite decent, with a win and two 2nds from five starts. He made good improvement from his first run to his second run, the senior rider goes on replacing the 3kg apprentice today and he is a blowout chance at $34.

Stablemate (6) Porphyrio was good second up (I was also on her that day) before a plain run last start. She doesn’t have a great third up record though, and she also sat three-wide the trip. She’s had three runs when fourth up from a spell, resulting in two wins and a 2^nd. Tricky gate today but again, the senior rider replaces the 3kg apprentice and she can go well at double figure odds.

(8) Bentley’s Brother comes off an Albany win, but prior to that he ran 2^nd to Misty Lad, who then ran 3^rd in town alongside (10) Safe To Makeup, who is $8.00 here. No surprise to see Bentley’s Brother run a race at $26, especially in his current form.

(13) What About Moi next best.

Tip: (9) Duck Feet $34 Ladbrokes

Also backing: (6) Porphyrio $12 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 0.25 units E/W Duck Feet, 0.25 units E/W Porphyrio

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

(7) Prince Devoutly was a good return when first up from a 67-week break, recording the fastest final 400m of the entire meeting in defeat. That was over 1000m and he should be much better suited up to 1200m today, a distance he’s undefeated at. Barrier 1 should see him position much further forward in running – he has led previously but there’s some speed out wide so he might just sit box seat. With even luck I think he can win.

(3) Weaponson is another horse undefeated at 1200m. He was good in defeat in that same race as Prince Devoutly last start, finishing about a length ahead of him. Better suited back up to 1200m today as he was a winner over this track and distance two starts ago. Drawn awkwardly in barrier 11 but he never runs a bad race.

(9) Mood Swings was a touch disappointing last start for mine, though he has had to sit outside the leader in both starts this prep. He maps to get a beautiful run behind the speed today from barrier 4 but while he’s a live chance, I’m against him here.

(1) Excellent Dream was a last-start winner and should run well again, while (11) One Short is the knockout chance first up with no trial.

Tip: (7) Prince Devoutly $3.85 Sportsbetting

Value: (3) Weaponson $7.10 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Prince Devoutly, 0.5 units WIN Weaponson

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

The feature race of the day is the Scenic Blast Stakes but it won’t be a betting race for me. (1) Flirtini is the horse to beat coming off a last-start win in the Miss Andretti Stakes but she goes up to 60.5kg today and gives a fair bit of weight to every other horse. In her favour is the red-hot tempo on paper, which should allow her to sail home from the back of the field, but at the current price I’m not keen to get involved.

The $7.50 for (3) Carocapo is gone, now into $5.50. He’s flying this preparation and was brave in defeat to Flirtini last start. He’s better suited with the rise to 1200m. His record at the distance is outstanding, with seven wins from 15 starts at the track and distance. The query I have with him today is the pace – I doubt they’ll lead and if they run at a furious speed, I just don’t know if that suits him.

(6) Flow is a 1400m horse but if they go quick, it might bring him into it. He was very unlucky in the Mt Barker Sprint last start and is a knockout hope at huge odds.

(8) Saracino and (10) Guns Of Navarone others to include.

Tip: (1) Flirtini $2.90 Bet365

Betting strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

We’ll need one of the Pontiff’s best efforts but (7) Amelia’s Contraire looks hard to beat to close out the day. She was luckless first up over this track and distance when held up to the 100m mark before surging late to be beaten 0.6L. She probably should have won that, with the race instead taken out by Time To Sizzle, who she meets 2kg better at the weights here. Just need some luck from barrier 1.

(2) Time To Sizzle bounced back to her best in that race, leading all the way. She’s now got three wins from four starts at the track and distance but my query with her here is her second up record. She’s only ever finished out of the money three times, and two of those have been when second up. She arguably should have been beaten by Amelia’s Contraire last start and now meets her 2kg worse off, so I have to oppose her today.

(4) Lipstick Flickers gets Chris Parnham booked to ride but she also gets the bar plates on her back feet for the first time, which is a huge negative.

(13) Nuhad is on stable debut for Luke Fernie and has some big hitters in the ownership so I’m tipping they’ll have her ready to fire at her first run with them. I don’t think she’s necessarily all that good but it wouldn’t surprise me to see them fire along in front and try to run them off their legs.

(9) Holy Ghost is one I’m keen to have something small on. He showed a bit of talent early but tailed off in two starts last prep. He’s had a good break and won his trial leading into this, so it wouldn’t shock me to see him run a big race first up.

Tip: (7) Amelia’s Contraire $3.65 Sportsbetting

Value: (9) Holy Ghost $11 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Amelia’s Contraire, 0.5 units WIN Holy Ghost