Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, February 12th

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

I think the difference in price between the favourite and (3) Through Irish Eyes is too great. This horse was on debut when they met at Pakenham and was clearly looking for further than 1400m, settling worse than midfield but coming home in the 2^nd fastest 600/400/200m of the race to finish 6^th, beaten 3.6L. He started $13 there and the 1600m looks ideal now, drawn well in barrier 4.

 

(8) I Am Chickasaw beat him home by 1.3L at Pakenham but did start $19 there. He’s had a run since, finishing a narrow 2^nd to Limpet on a heavy track. That’s good form but his best two career runs have been on very wet tracks. Drawn barrier one here, back to a firm deck and off his SP at Pakenham, I can’t have him so short tonight.

 

(9) Reflecting Image is the danger- he was a touch unlucky behind Kanzai last start who placed behind Irish Butterfly at Sandown. The extra 100m will suit and he gets in with 55kg after the claim.

 

Tip: (3) Through Irish Eyes- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Saver: (9) Reflecting Image- $3.90 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Through Irish Eyes, 0.5 units WIN Reflecting Image

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

Most of the field on debut here. (13) Flying Evelyn has been backed early for Zahra/Freedman. The jumpout was good and she draws well in barrier 5.

 

(7) Tinge was beaten nearly 9L by Enthaar on debut, which could still end up being decent form. She comes to Melbourne and can only improve off the debut run.

 

(5) Paris Shiraz won a Flemington jumpout and gets D Lane for Ellerton/Zahra. Barrier one is never ideal unless leading here but it’s a hot combo.

 

Speaking of hot combos, J Kah rides for Maher/Eustace with (1) Aziza. The jumpout was good at Caulfield and she’s a leading chance.

 

Tip: (1) Aziza- $4.40 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

(8) Really Swish drops in class after battling on behind War Critic and Hasseltoff at Caulfield. He doesn’t win out of turn but looks ready to step up in trip.

 

(4) Resurge is coming off a 4^th at this T/D last start behind Horse For Higher. The run prior at Murray Bridge was solid behind a handy one in Farooq. This race is no harder than last start and he’s an obvious chance.

 

(1) Coronation Glade is the interesting runner over from Tasmania. He’s won all three this prep and looks set to tackle the longer trip, 4^th up. He did win his maiden easily at Ballarat back in 2018 over 2000m. Barrier one is a bit sticky but at least he knows how to win.

 

(7) Fournaise can improve off his last two runs. The win three back over Hunamosa is definitely good enough for this and he could be advantaged back up in trip.

 

Tip: (1) Coronation Glade- $8.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

Keen to see (2) Mosh Music again. I’ve been with her basically all prep and she finally delivered last start at Sandown when stepping up to 2400m. Once she hit top gear, she savaged the line to beat subsequent Hobart Cup winner Double You Tee in a very good effort. She loves The Valley with 3 wins from 5 starts and should’ve won a group 3 JRA Cup here in 2019. She should be at peak fitness and with even luck I can’t see much beating her again.

 

(6) Vadiyann should run them along out in front. He went out way too hard at Rosehill last start and had to tire, beaten 6.6L by the talented Great House. He should find the front here and give a sight if rated better.

 

(3) Bartholomeu Dias meets Mosh Music 1kg better off for a 1L defeat but had every chance there and loses J Kah. He is 2/2 at the trip but I think Mosh Music is a better horse than him.

 

(8) Rudimental gets in on the minimum and was a big run last start behind Long Arm and Yulong Captain.

 

The price has well and truly been taken with Mosh Music after opening at $4. I’ve clearly got her on top but it wouldn’t shock if she got out a touch late and we see $3.

 

Tip: (2) Mosh Music- $2.60 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Mosh Music

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

Really strong 955m race, and it’s hard to go past (4) Elderflower again. This is a harder race than last start, but she’s airborne and I’m glad they’ve kept her to the short course rather than extend her to 1200m. She was ridden aggressively to find the front over this T/D last start, and it paid dividends as she raced away by 3.5L. There does look more speed here and if she doesn’t lead, I think she maps right in the 1-1. I’d have preferred Campbell Rawiller to stay on, but Neindorf is 1/1 on the horse and she plummets in weight. Should be going close again.

 

(5) Hidden Legend has been tackling stronger races, but I think he’s better over 1100/1200m. He has won at the trip, but I think he might find them a touch sharp tonight.

 

(6) Propelle ran well first up behind the airborne Ididitforlove. She loves it here and is suited to the 955m. Kah sticks from barrier 3 and if the gaps come, she can explode late.

 

(7) Lady Solly is a very quick horse who I think crosses to the lead or sits outside. She bolted in at this T/D last start when able to dictate at $31. Her form prior was just average but that run alone is good enough to win this.

 

Tip: (4) Elderflower- $2.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Elderflower

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

I thought (6) Wilsdorf was a touch of value here. He’s only had 4 starts and broke through for a strong maiden win last start at Geelong, controlling the race outside the lead and skipping away to win easily. The odds on favourite there split Amfissa and I Am Chickasaw (r1) the start prior, which ties in here. He can settle in the first 4 again and handle the class rise.

 

(8) Limpet narrowly got the better of I Am Chickasaw last start on a heavy track. He also brought some strong maiden form and gets D Lane on, but taking a line through the two, Wilsdorf appeals at the better price.

 

(4) Il Divo has been taking on stronger races and competing well. He was 2^nd to Necessary at Pakenham last start which is a good benchmark, and wasn’t far off Saccharo at Flemington the start prior.

 

(3) Subrunner started $91 but easily outran that SP when running 2^nd to Brazen Song last start. That’s definitely good enough for this, but I’m not a fan of backing a horse at $4.00 when they started close to triple figures the start before.

 

Tip: (6) Wilsdorf- $7.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Wilsdorf

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

Good race, and I’m siding with (5) Savannah Cloud 2^nd up. He was absolutely truck loaded in betting to start $1.40 first up at Geelong and should’ve won. He jumped well but Nolen let him drift back to last, then tried to circle the field with no cart into the race. He presented as if he’d race away, but one with an easier run up the inside darted late. I think Savannah Cloud just gave out late, and he should be improved greatly 2^nd up. Second up last prep he was well backed to start $5 in the Guineas Prelude, finishing 3.3L off Crosshaven, less than 1L off Aysar. With a bit more intent, he can settle midfield one off the fence and prove too strong late.

 

(4) Ilovethegame has jumped out well since two disappointing runs. He hasn’t won since his debut effort but was good here first up behind Nicolino Vito and is fresh for this.

 

(1) Rock The Ring is coming off a 2^nd to Yulong Command at this T/D last start. He won comfortably in a class 1 prior and is right in the game.

 

(11) Entrapped ran on well here over 1000m behind Cut It Out, who led all the way. The 1200m will definitely suit and she should be able to settle right up on speed from barrier 2, as she usually does in Tasmania.

 

Tip: (5) Savannah Cloud- $2.75 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Savannah Cloud

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

Very tough finish. (9) Mr Raikkonen comes here first up after a most pleasing debut campaign. He ran 3^rd to Zipping Boy on debut, which is strong form, then bolted in with his maiden on a wet track before running well over 1600m. The 1200m is probably short of his best in time but he’s got upside. He probably gets a fair way back from barrier 9.

 

(7) Foxy Lady is racing well but I would’ve liked to see her over 1400m now. The first up run behind Miss Albania was very good but she just plugged away late last start. She drops in grade for this and gets Will Price’s 3kg claim, but barrier 3 could be tricky as she often gets back.

 

(11) Hannah’s Song is another Tassie horse in good form. She settles on speed and is consistent, so don’t be shocked if Kah gets everything out of her and she’s in the finish.

 

(6) Reard is talented enough on his day but can often find one better. He had no hope given the race shape first up and is better suited at 1200m. He boasts a $2.70 SP to China Affair which is solid form.

Happy to pack up stumps early here- Foxy Lady looks too short but there are knocks on plenty of other runners. Don’t be surprised if a real rough result is thrown up.

 

Tip: : (9) Mr Raikkonen- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet