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Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, February 13th

It’s Apollo Stakes Day at Randwick and Tim Geers has previewed every race with his preview and betting tips below.

Dreamforce-Randwick

The Group 2 Apollo Stakes headlines the nine-race card at Randwick on Saturday, with some of the country’s top weight-for-age horses set to clash in the day’s feature.

With up to 20mm of rain predicted in Sydney, the weather is set to play a major part on the day’s action. The track is currently rated a Good 4 but if the rain arrives, we’re likely to be racing on a soft track. The rail is in the 6m position.

Tim Geers has previewed every race on the Randwick card below, along with his tips and betting strategy. His best bet is a two-year-old in the Pierro Plate, while he’s keen on a pair of Chris Waller runners at good odds as his best value on the card.

Best Bet: Race 2 – (1) Stay Inside

Best Value: Race 5 – (2) Yonkers & (7) Mohican Heights

0

Race 1

The Agency Real Estate (Bm78) (2400m)
1:15pm (AEDT)

Race 1

The Agency Real Estate (Bm78) (2400m)
1:15pm (AEDT)

1. Kiss The Bride (3) J: Tom Sherry (63kg) T: Bjorn Baker
4.24444.254.2
2. Accountability (9) J: James Mcdonald (59kg) T: C J Waller
99.59109.110
3. Harpo Marx (7) J: Ms Rachel King (59kg) T: Bjorn Baker
4.84.64.4554.8
4. Kaapfever (2) J: Nash Rawiller (57kg) T: Joseph Pride
666666
5. Tochi (1) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (55.5kg) T: R & L Price
2626262626.526
6. Antilles (5) J: Tommy Berry (54kg) T: Matthew Dale
7.58.58.57.578
7. Power Of Attorney (8) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (53.5kg) T: Peter Robl
6.56656.56
8. Shadow Flight (4) J: Jay Ford (53kg) T: L J Bridge
1821212118.619
9. Lord Tropicana (6) J: Ms Louise Day (52kg) T: G Portelli
1919202018.219

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

(1) Kiss The Bride carries 61kg here but he carried a very similar weight to victory over this track and distance and in this grade at the exact same stage of last preparation. He enjoyed the gun run that day with senior jockey Josh Parr and he should get a similar run from barrier 3 today for Tom Sherry. He’s been racing well in harder grade so the drop back to a 78 should see him hard to beat, even with the weight.

Stablemate (3) Harpo Marx is flying, with three wins and three placings from his past six starts. He ran 2nd to the very impressive Great House last start and pulled well clear of the third horse, so he will be right in the finish and hard to beat again.

(7) Power Of Attorney’s form can be tied in with Harpo Marx from three and four starts ago. Certainly not hopeless if he can repeat that.

(2) Accountability was poor last start but was fresh off a five-week spell. Should be fitter and McDonald is back on.

Tip: (1) Kiss The Bride $3.30 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

0

Race 2

Silverdale Farm Pierro Plate (1100m)
1:50pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Silverdale Farm Pierro Plate (1100m)
1:50pm (AEDT)

1. Stay Inside (7) J: James Mcdonald (57kg) T: R & M Freedman
2.052.12.152.222
2. Akihiro (1) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56kg) T: G Portelli
272626263226
3. Athelric (14) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: James Cummings
2726262129.531
4. Fox Fighter (10) J: Joshua Parr (56kg) T: David Payne
262626262526
5. Giannis (9) J: Nash Rawiller (56kg) T: C J Waller
1817161617.219
6. Kalashnikov (13) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: P & P Snowden
313131263031
7. King Of Sparta (12) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: P & P Snowden
1112111210.811
8. Montana Flash (2) J: Tommy Berry (56kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
273131263131
9. Robodira (6) J: Brenton Avdulla (55kg) T: J A O'shea
10. Camino Real (5) J: Ms Rachel King (54kg) T: James Cummings
11. Emerald Bay (11) J: Tim Clark (54kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
12. Headliner (3) J: Sam Clipperton (54kg) T: C J Waller
76.576.576.5
13. Total Babe (4) J: Regan Bayliss (54kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
9.5109.51010.210
14. Vianello (8) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: James Cummings
1010101010.210

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

On what looks a tough card at Randwick, I thought (1) Stay Inside looked the best bet of the day. It’s not often I dive into two-year-old races but there was plenty to like about this horse’s dominant display on debut, where he sat on speed and skipped away to win by 2.8L. The step up to 1100m will be no issue, his last-start win came at the track, and James McDonald is booked to ride, jumping off a Chris Waller runner to do so. He should be very hard to beat again if he can repeat the performance.

(11) Emerald Bay started $5.00 on debut and sat three-wide the trip, as well as pulling up with a laceration. Respect that SP and the good recent trial. Tim Clark notably jumps off the stablemate which is shorter in the market, and I would expect a much sharper performance today.

(6) Kalashnikov started favourite on debut in the Breeders’ Plate and then firm in the market again at his second start. He failed in both but he’s once again trialled well leading into his first up run here. Respect the SP’s from his first prep and he’s another at $19 that can outrun his price.

Plenty of other chances, but they will have to be pretty good to beat Stay Inside.

Tip: (1) Stay Inside $2.60 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Stay Inside

0

Race 3

Tab Highway (C3) (1800m)
2:25pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Tab Highway (C3) (1800m)
2:25pm (AEDT)

1. Deadly Impact (15) J: Brandon Griffiths (59kg) T: Stephen O'halloran
2. Lamington Drive (8) J: Hugh Bowman (58kg) T: John Bateman
6.56.56.5666
3. Costas (1) J: Sam Clipperton (56kg) T: Brett Thompson
9.5109.51111.211
4. If You Think So (5) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (55kg) T: J A Sylvester
7666.56.96
5. Saint Ay (17) J: Jay Ford (54.5kg) T: D R Mirfin
6. But I Know (10) J: Tim Clark (54kg) T: M R Stitt
515141416371
7. Birdonawinningpost (3) J: Grant Buckley (54kg) T: William Freedman
4.84.84.84.85.14.4
8. Boom And Zoom (14) J: Ms Rachel King (54kg) T: Natalie Jarvis
171716151719
9. Vaquero (16) J: Robbie Dolan (54kg) T: Ms A Smith
1518181815.217
10. Will To Excel (12) J: Jason Collett (54kg) T: M D Griffith
7.588.58.57.38
11. Hot Bahama (2) J: Ms Winona Costin (54kg) T: James Ponsonby
12. Lord Desanimaux (13) J: Tommy Berry (54kg) T: T J Robinson
888.587.18
13. Just Business (6) J: Unknown (54kg) T: W G Carroll
14. Southern Cloud (11) J: Ms Louise Day (54kg) T: Lou Mary
9110191101101126
15. Tickinover (9) J: Unknown (54kg) T: D P Blundell
16. Diorissima (7) J: Tim Clark (54kg) T: Jean Dubois
7.587.587.98
17. Loafing (4) J: Blaike Mcdougall (56kg) T: K R Dryden

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Happy to stay out of the Highway Handicaps, which just continue to prove to be absolute lotteries.

With that said, I do think the lightly-raced (7) Birdonawinningpost will be hard to beat. She bolted in two starts ago at Muswellbrook on a heavy track, and then had no luck at all at Gosford last time out. She ended up back in the field and ran up backsides, never getting clear in the straight. The fact she has won on a rain-affected track could prove a very big plus if the rain falls.

(11) Hot Bahama could be a bit of value at $34. He’ll take up a forward position from barrier 2, the blinkers come off for the first time, and whenever this stable bring runners to town for these races, they tend to go alright.

(16) Diorissima continues to race well without a great deal of luck but she’s still a maiden racing in a Class 3 which isn’t easy to do.

Tip: (7) Birdonawinningpost $4.65 Sportsbetting

Value: (11) Hot Bahama $34 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

0

Race 4

Robrick Lodge Triscay Stakes (1200m)
3:05pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Robrick Lodge Triscay Stakes (1200m)
3:05pm (AEDT)

1. Madam Rouge (3) J: James Mcdonald (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
2. Icebath (6) J: Tom Sherry (57kg) T: Brad Widdup
6.56.56.576.66.5
3. Reelem In Ruby (4) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: P & P Snowden
192019202019
4. Subpoenaed (8) J: Tommy Berry (54.5kg) T: C J Waller
5. Tricky Gal (9) J: Ms Rachel King (53kg) T: Matthew Smith
101010111012
6. Tailleur (5) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (53kg) T: James Cummings
1.351.351.351.351.321.33
7. Into The Abyss (1) J: Robbie Dolan (53kg) T: John Thompson
263126313231
8. Electric Girl (7) J: Jay Ford (53kg) T: Nathan Doyle
354134414341
9. Spiranac (2) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (53kg) T: R P Northam
465161516341

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Expecting the track to be wet and that means only three chances here in my mind.

The obvious is (6) Tailleur who was dominant last start, bolting in by 3.3L over 1100m at Rosehill. That took her record to five wins and two 2nds from seven starts. She goes up in grade today but she gets in with 53kg and the wet ground poses absolutely no problem at all. She won by nearly 4L at this stage last preparation and that was over this same distance. With even luck she should be much too good.

(5) Tricky Gal looks the clear value to me at $21. She’s undefeated first up from three attempts and I was particularly impressed with her fresh win last prep. She has a good record on wet ground and although this is her acid test, I think she can run a cheeky race at those odds.

(2) Icebath loves the wet ground. I would probably say that 1400m-1600m is her best trip and not the 1200m, but it’s hard to say she can’t win fresh over this distance, because she’s copped some very ordinary steers in her time. Respecting her.

Tip: (6) Tailleur $1.76 Sportsbetting

Value: (5) Tricky Gal $21 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Tailleur, 0.5 units WIN Tricky Gal

0

Race 5

Acy Securities (Bm88) (1600m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Acy Securities (Bm88) (1600m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

1. Soldier Of Love (3) J: Joshua Parr (60kg) T: Bjorn Baker
1514151315.213
2. Mr Marathon Man (2) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (59.5kg) T: Richard Litt
343131313534
3. Yonkers (8) J: Hugh Bowman (58kg) T: C J Waller
9.5101010109.5
4. Scarlet Dream (1) J: Brenton Avdulla (57kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
5. New Arrangement (7) J: Tommy Berry (57kg) T: C J Waller
5.5665.55.55.5
6. Missybeel (6) J: Nash Rawiller (56kg) T: Bjorn Baker
313131263234
7. Mohican Heights (11) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: C J Waller
4.64.84.854.754.8
8. Canasta (13) J: Ms Rachel King (55.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
4.64.54.44.64.54.4
9. Strategic Phil (12) J: Tim Clark (54kg) T: D R Brideoake
10. Bergen (10) J: Regan Bayliss (54kg) T: J A O'shea
11. Aqua D'ivina (4) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (53.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
353434343641
12. Cisco Bay (9) J: Robbie Dolan (53kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
66665.76
13. Pandano (5) J: Jay Ford (53kg) T: P M Perry
8.58.58.58.58.89

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

(3) Yonkers didn’t get much luck first up, unable to get clear running for the majority of the straight. He has two wins and two placings from five starts when second up from a spell, and he’s never missed the top two from five starts at this distance. Has won on wet ground multiple times before and I think he’s over the odds at $15.

His stablemate (7) Mohican Heights is one of the more interesting runners on the day. He makes his Australian debut for Chris Waller, who has wasted no time putting James McDonald on board. He runs first up as a gelding today and I thought his trial was very good. He was put under pressure at the top of the straight, but I thought the way he made ground in the final 100m or so was quite good. The market will tell us plenty here – if he’s firm in betting, I suspect he can run a very big race here, but if he blows a gale it probably suggests he’ll need the run ahead of some of the staying races later this Autumn.

(5) New Arrangement is racing well and drops back to the mile and (12) Cisco Bay should relish the conditions.

Happy to oppose the favourite (8) Canasta at the current quote – he had a birthday in front last start – while I’m normally keen on (4) Scarlet Dream fresh (and fresh only!) but she doesn’t go in the wet.

Tip: (7) Mohican Heights $7.10 Sportsbetting

Value: (2) Yonkers $15 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Mohican, 0.5 units WIN Yonkers

0

Race 6

Cellarbrations Southern Cross (1200m)
4:25pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Cellarbrations Southern Cross (1200m)
4:25pm (AEDT)

1. Victorem (6) J: James Mcdonald (59kg) T: Ms J Graham
111113111211
2. Gem Song (8) J: Nash Rawiller (57.5kg) T: K A Lees
1616161818.218
3. Standout (2) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
4. Roheryn (3) J: Jason Collett (57kg) T: James Cummings
3.93.743.74.053.4
5. Southern Lad (10) J: Regan Bayliss (54kg) T: J A O'shea
1314121410.613
6. Brave Song (4) J: Robbie Dolan (53.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
7. Masked Crusader (9) J: Tommy Berry (53.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
2.252.252.252.32.152.3
8. Subpoenaed (7) J: Unknown (53kg) T: C J Waller
9. Hightail (1) J: Ms Rachel King (53kg) T: P & P Snowden
6.56.56.56.56.76.5
10. Albumin (5) J: Jay Ford (53kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
232621262426

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Interesting to see what the market does with (7) Masked Crusader here, and likewise it will be interesting to see what tactics they go with. I’m predicting they ride him aggressively out of the gates and go forward, unlike last prep when they were happy to take a sit. It didn’t work out for them, and in an attempt to get him back to his best, I have a feeling they’ll be positive out of the gates. That was what they did in his recent trial, which was outstanding. At his best, I think he’d win this.

(4) Roheryn’s racing pattern costs him on occasion, and I wonder if he’s a horse that does his absolute best racing first up. He’ll run well but might need some luck from that draw.

(3) Standout will be coiled up ready to go fresh but the expected wet ground is a huge query for him, who is undoubtedly a horse that races best on firm ground.

(1) Victorem is flying a touch under the radar and JMac booked first up looks a good lead.

Tip: (7) Masked Crusader $2.70 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Masked Crusader

0

Race 7

Yulong Apollo Stakes (1400m)
5:05pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Yulong Apollo Stakes (1400m)
5:05pm (AEDT)

1. Kolding (7) J: Hugh Bowman (59kg) T: C J Waller
3.73.8443.653.8
2. Dreamforce (2) J: Nash Rawiller (59kg) T: John Thompson
3. Fifty Stars (8) J: Blaike Mcdougall (59kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
1918191917.218
4. Mugatoo (10) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (59kg) T: K A Lees
8.58.5998.38
5. Prince Fawaz (1) J: Tim Clark (59kg) T: A J Cummings
8191151101101101
6. Verry Elleegant (4) J: James Mcdonald (57kg) T: C J Waller
2.52.452.52.52.52.5
7. Colette (3) J: Ms Rachel King (57kg) T: James Cummings
1212131211.212
8. Funstar (5) J: Tommy Berry (57kg) T: C J Waller
666.566.15.5
9. Toffee Tongue (6) J: Brenton Avdulla (57kg) T: C J Waller
414141343551
10. Mo'unga (9) J: Jason Collett (55.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

The Apollo Stakes is a great race and a fascinating tactical affair on paper.

(2) Dreamforce should be able to lead here and he’s going to take an enormous amount of running down. Verry Elleegant had his measure first up last prep in the Winx Stakes over this track and distance, but that was run at a suicidal tempo, and Dreamforce was caught three-wide up on the furious speed. He should be able to lead and dictate here. He has an outstanding first up record, gets the blinkers back on, and although he’s better on firm ground, he’s no hack at all on the soft. Providing nothing silly happens during the run, he’s going to be in front for a long way. With $5.60/$2.00 available, happy to bet each way.

(6) Verry Elleegant is obviously the best credentialed horse in the race. Last prep was the first time she won fresh, but it was set up for something like her with superior stamina. With that said, her winning effort was nothing to sneeze at, she had to do it the hard way posted wide throughout. She should get a good run from barrier 4 and the wetter the better for her.

(1) Kolding was sound in defeat behind Savatiano first up. He could be the one to roll forward and test Dreamforce. He certainly shouldn’t be underestimated here.

(4) Mugatoo is the interesting runner. This is no doubt short of his best but he went to a new level last prep.

Tip: (2) Dreamforce E/W $5.50 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Dreamforce

0

Race 8

Tab Light Fingers Stakes (1200m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Tab Light Fingers Stakes (1200m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

1. Away Game (6) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
2.52.52.62.62.62.6
2. Kahma Lass (2) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56kg) T: J W Richards
2626181918.218
3. Hungry Heart (9) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: C J Waller
54.84.654.454.4
4. Vangelic (5) J: Tim Clark (56kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
998.598.69
5. Thermosphere (11) J: Nash Rawiller (56kg) T: James Cummings
8.58.510989
6. Every Rose (16) J: Joshua Parr (56kg) T: Mark Newnham
272631212223
7. Joviality (7) J: Sam Clipperton (56kg) T: C J Waller
1517161917.218
8. Never Talk (14) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: K A Lees
1515161615.416
9. Sweet Reply (12) J: Tommy Berry (56kg) T: R & M Freedman
515151514341
10. Philizzy (8) J: Regan Bayliss (56kg) T: A J Cummings
616151615361
11. Elizabeel (10) J: Robbie Dolan (56kg) T: J G Sargent
616141515161
12. Love Sensation (4) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: K L Corstens
343426313234
13. Nicci's Fling (3) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56kg) T: G Portelli
343431343834
14. Orpheum (13) J: Jay Ford (56kg) T: R J Quinton
151201151126161201
15. She Can Sing (1) J: Unknown (56kg) T: Michael Costa
16. Pippali (15) J: Unknown (56kg) T: J C Coyle

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

I’m fairly happy to take on the favourite (1) Away Game here. I think she’s short enough at the prices at the moment. I’m of the opinion she hasn’t necessarily come back as dominant as a three-year-old compared to what she was last season as a two-year-old.

She’s probably better over slightly further, but I’m going to jump on the (3) Hungry Heart train today. She’s not a horse I normally back, but I think if she’s improved on last prep, she can be winning this. The draw is slightly awkward but I’d prefer to be with her over Away Game at the prices.

(2) Kahma Lass is another that might be better suited over further, but I always respect these NZ horses, especially from this stable. She returns with the concussion plates off, suggesting her feet are better than they might have been last prep. She’s nominated for some good races this prep, so don’t be shocked to see a big run fresh.

(9) Sweet Reply never runs a bad race and looks over the odds at $51.

Tip: (3) Hungry Heart $4.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Hungry Heart

0

Race 9

Ranvet (Bm88) (1300m)
6:15pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Ranvet (Bm88) (1300m)
6:15pm (AEDT)

1. Thy Kingdom Come (5) J: Nash Rawiller (59.5kg) T: John Thompson
7776.56.76
2. Poetic Charmer (3) J: James Mcdonald (58kg) T: P & P Snowden
54.8555.15
3. Academy (13) J: Joshua Parr (57.5kg) T: Mark Newnham
4.24.24.24.24.054.2
4. Cliff's Art (12) J: Tom Sherry (57kg) T: Matthew Smith
2626262628.526
5. Rocha Clock (8) J: Brenton Avdulla (57kg) T: J A O'shea
10109.51010.210
6. Lina's Hero (14) J: Sam Clipperton (57kg) T: C J Waller
7. Accession (9) J: Unknown (56.5kg) T: C J Waller
8. Subedar (6) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: James Cummings
9. Yamazaki (1) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: David Pfieffer
10. Cristal Breeze (11) J: Tim Clark (56kg) T: K A Lees
6.566.566.26.5
11. Archanna (15) J: Tommy Berry (53.5kg) T: C J Waller
55.55.55.55.65.5
12. Bucharest (2) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (53kg) T: C J Waller
1213141612.812
13. Starspangled Rodeo (7) J: Unknown (54.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
14. He's A Hotshot (4) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Bjorn Baker
15. Ventura Ocean (16) J: Unknown (54kg) T: K A Lees
16. Into The Abyss (10) J: Unknown (58kg) T: John Thompson

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Non-betting race to close out the card.

(8) Subedar was sound first up from a very long time off the track, beaten 0.5L by All Time Legend. That horse should have won its next start after that, and he was brave again last weekend to run 3rd after being pestered throughout. So I think that’s a reliable form reference. The drop in distance back to 1300m is my main query, and he might be closer to the back of the field than he is the front during the race. Bowman goes on and he looks the obvious choice, but I think he’s around his right price.

(3) Academy was also sound first up, albeit 3L off Tailleur. He beat Icebath last prep which is a very decent form reference. The map is the query here with barrier 13 a very awkward draw. Can win.

(11) Archanna is likely to need much further than this but I wouldn’t completely discount her first up.

JMac rides for the Snowden team here and not Waller, which is notable. He’s on (2) Poetic Charmer who placed here two starts ago.

Tip: (8) Subedar $2.90 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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