Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, February 13th

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

(1) Kiss The Bride carries 61kg here but he carried a very similar weight to victory over this track and distance and in this grade at the exact same stage of last preparation. He enjoyed the gun run that day with senior jockey Josh Parr and he should get a similar run from barrier 3 today for Tom Sherry. He’s been racing well in harder grade so the drop back to a 78 should see him hard to beat, even with the weight.

Stablemate (3) Harpo Marx is flying, with three wins and three placings from his past six starts. He ran 2^nd to the very impressive Great House last start and pulled well clear of the third horse, so he will be right in the finish and hard to beat again.

(7) Power Of Attorney’s form can be tied in with Harpo Marx from three and four starts ago. Certainly not hopeless if he can repeat that.

(2) Accountability was poor last start but was fresh off a five-week spell. Should be fitter and McDonald is back on.

Tip: (1) Kiss The Bride $3.30 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

On what looks a tough card at Randwick, I thought (1) Stay Inside looked the best bet of the day. It’s not often I dive into two-year-old races but there was plenty to like about this horse’s dominant display on debut, where he sat on speed and skipped away to win by 2.8L. The step up to 1100m will be no issue, his last-start win came at the track, and James McDonald is booked to ride, jumping off a Chris Waller runner to do so. He should be very hard to beat again if he can repeat the performance.

(11) Emerald Bay started $5.00 on debut and sat three-wide the trip, as well as pulling up with a laceration. Respect that SP and the good recent trial. Tim Clark notably jumps off the stablemate which is shorter in the market, and I would expect a much sharper performance today.

(6) Kalashnikov started favourite on debut in the Breeders’ Plate and then firm in the market again at his second start. He failed in both but he’s once again trialled well leading into his first up run here. Respect the SP’s from his first prep and he’s another at $19 that can outrun his price.

Plenty of other chances, but they will have to be pretty good to beat Stay Inside.

Tip: (1) Stay Inside $2.60 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Stay Inside

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Happy to stay out of the Highway Handicaps, which just continue to prove to be absolute lotteries.

With that said, I do think the lightly-raced (7) Birdonawinningpost will be hard to beat. She bolted in two starts ago at Muswellbrook on a heavy track, and then had no luck at all at Gosford last time out. She ended up back in the field and ran up backsides, never getting clear in the straight. The fact she has won on a rain-affected track could prove a very big plus if the rain falls.

(11) Hot Bahama could be a bit of value at $34. He’ll take up a forward position from barrier 2, the blinkers come off for the first time, and whenever this stable bring runners to town for these races, they tend to go alright.

(16) Diorissima continues to race well without a great deal of luck but she’s still a maiden racing in a Class 3 which isn’t easy to do.

Tip: (7) Birdonawinningpost $4.65 Sportsbetting

Value: (11) Hot Bahama $34 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Expecting the track to be wet and that means only three chances here in my mind.

The obvious is (6) Tailleur who was dominant last start, bolting in by 3.3L over 1100m at Rosehill. That took her record to five wins and two 2nds from seven starts. She goes up in grade today but she gets in with 53kg and the wet ground poses absolutely no problem at all. She won by nearly 4L at this stage last preparation and that was over this same distance. With even luck she should be much too good.

(5) Tricky Gal looks the clear value to me at $21. She’s undefeated first up from three attempts and I was particularly impressed with her fresh win last prep. She has a good record on wet ground and although this is her acid test, I think she can run a cheeky race at those odds.

(2) Icebath loves the wet ground. I would probably say that 1400m-1600m is her best trip and not the 1200m, but it’s hard to say she can’t win fresh over this distance, because she’s copped some very ordinary steers in her time. Respecting her.

Tip: (6) Tailleur $1.76 Sportsbetting

Value: (5) Tricky Gal $21 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Tailleur, 0.5 units WIN Tricky Gal

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

(3) Yonkers didn’t get much luck first up, unable to get clear running for the majority of the straight. He has two wins and two placings from five starts when second up from a spell, and he’s never missed the top two from five starts at this distance. Has won on wet ground multiple times before and I think he’s over the odds at $15.

His stablemate (7) Mohican Heights is one of the more interesting runners on the day. He makes his Australian debut for Chris Waller, who has wasted no time putting James McDonald on board. He runs first up as a gelding today and I thought his trial was very good. He was put under pressure at the top of the straight, but I thought the way he made ground in the final 100m or so was quite good. The market will tell us plenty here – if he’s firm in betting, I suspect he can run a very big race here, but if he blows a gale it probably suggests he’ll need the run ahead of some of the staying races later this Autumn.

(5) New Arrangement is racing well and drops back to the mile and (12) Cisco Bay should relish the conditions.

Happy to oppose the favourite (8) Canasta at the current quote – he had a birthday in front last start – while I’m normally keen on (4) Scarlet Dream fresh (and fresh only!) but she doesn’t go in the wet.

Tip: (7) Mohican Heights $7.10 Sportsbetting

Value: (2) Yonkers $15 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Mohican, 0.5 units WIN Yonkers

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Interesting to see what the market does with (7) Masked Crusader here, and likewise it will be interesting to see what tactics they go with. I’m predicting they ride him aggressively out of the gates and go forward, unlike last prep when they were happy to take a sit. It didn’t work out for them, and in an attempt to get him back to his best, I have a feeling they’ll be positive out of the gates. That was what they did in his recent trial, which was outstanding. At his best, I think he’d win this.

(4) Roheryn’s racing pattern costs him on occasion, and I wonder if he’s a horse that does his absolute best racing first up. He’ll run well but might need some luck from that draw.

(3) Standout will be coiled up ready to go fresh but the expected wet ground is a huge query for him, who is undoubtedly a horse that races best on firm ground.

(1) Victorem is flying a touch under the radar and JMac booked first up looks a good lead.

Tip: (7) Masked Crusader $2.70 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Masked Crusader

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

The Apollo Stakes is a great race and a fascinating tactical affair on paper.

(2) Dreamforce should be able to lead here and he’s going to take an enormous amount of running down. Verry Elleegant had his measure first up last prep in the Winx Stakes over this track and distance, but that was run at a suicidal tempo, and Dreamforce was caught three-wide up on the furious speed. He should be able to lead and dictate here. He has an outstanding first up record, gets the blinkers back on, and although he’s better on firm ground, he’s no hack at all on the soft. Providing nothing silly happens during the run, he’s going to be in front for a long way. With $5.60/$2.00 available, happy to bet each way.

(6) Verry Elleegant is obviously the best credentialed horse in the race. Last prep was the first time she won fresh, but it was set up for something like her with superior stamina. With that said, her winning effort was nothing to sneeze at, she had to do it the hard way posted wide throughout. She should get a good run from barrier 4 and the wetter the better for her.

(1) Kolding was sound in defeat behind Savatiano first up. He could be the one to roll forward and test Dreamforce. He certainly shouldn’t be underestimated here.

(4) Mugatoo is the interesting runner. This is no doubt short of his best but he went to a new level last prep.

Tip: (2) Dreamforce E/W $5.50 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Dreamforce

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

I’m fairly happy to take on the favourite (1) Away Game here. I think she’s short enough at the prices at the moment. I’m of the opinion she hasn’t necessarily come back as dominant as a three-year-old compared to what she was last season as a two-year-old.

She’s probably better over slightly further, but I’m going to jump on the (3) Hungry Heart train today. She’s not a horse I normally back, but I think if she’s improved on last prep, she can be winning this. The draw is slightly awkward but I’d prefer to be with her over Away Game at the prices.

(2) Kahma Lass is another that might be better suited over further, but I always respect these NZ horses, especially from this stable. She returns with the concussion plates off, suggesting her feet are better than they might have been last prep. She’s nominated for some good races this prep, so don’t be shocked to see a big run fresh.

(9) Sweet Reply never runs a bad race and looks over the odds at $51.

Tip: (3) Hungry Heart $4.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Hungry Heart

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Non-betting race to close out the card.

(8) Subedar was sound first up from a very long time off the track, beaten 0.5L by All Time Legend. That horse should have won its next start after that, and he was brave again last weekend to run 3^rd after being pestered throughout. So I think that’s a reliable form reference. The drop in distance back to 1300m is my main query, and he might be closer to the back of the field than he is the front during the race. Bowman goes on and he looks the obvious choice, but I think he’s around his right price.

(3) Academy was also sound first up, albeit 3L off Tailleur. He beat Icebath last prep which is a very decent form reference. The map is the query here with barrier 13 a very awkward draw. Can win.

(11) Archanna is likely to need much further than this but I wouldn’t completely discount her first up.

JMac rides for the Snowden team here and not Waller, which is notable. He’s on (2) Poetic Charmer who placed here two starts ago.

Tip: (8) Subedar $2.90 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet