Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, February 13th

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

 

Happy to give (8) Quantum Mechanic another chance. She should’ve won at this T/D two back against the boys when held up from last and rattling home, and whilst she was beaten last start at Sandown, the first 3 gapped the rest. The winner there, Kansino, has won again since, and this race, despite being a bm78, is barely any harder. Quantum Mechanic drops 4kg down to 55.5kg and draws out which I think could help with Kah sticking.

 

(9) White Hibiscus was awful last start when backed off the map to start $1.55. She missed the start but even still, she never looked likely and was beaten 5L. The win prior was strong, and she can certainly bounce back, but I didn’t back her last start and won’t be here.

 

(1) Silent Sovereign was given a great ride to score first up over 1400m, in arguably a touch stronger race. Will Price takes the ride from a wide gate and I’d expect she gets a fair way back. The 1600m will suit although she will get over 2000m+.

 

(6) Good And Proper is flying but this is her toughest test yet. The camp is still flying though so she’s hard to knock.

 

 

Tip: (8) Quantum Mechanic- $4.20 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Quantum Mechanic

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Good little 2yo race with some likely to back up into the Blue Diamond. I’m keen to be with (1) Ingratiating who chases Enthaar home first up over 1000m. He was no match for her there but stuck on well for 2^nd. The big tick for him is the straight track- his first two runs were here where he beat General Beau on debut and ran a narrow 2^nd to Finance Tycoon at $1.85. With the straight track experience I think he’s the horse to beat.

 

(2) Gulf Of Suez is the obvious danger, and his form ties in easily with Ingratiating. I thought he went enormous in the Blue Diamond Preview over 1000m when originally sent forward to lead a line of 3, then dropped back to midfield and basically racing 4 and 5 wide around the turn. It’s not a big issue at the Caulfield chute but he still covered a stack of ground and kept coming, only peaking late. General Beau won that race and has won the Prelude since, so there’s not much between him and Ingratiating. He gets in 2kg lighter and wouldn’t shock at all, but I’m just tipping the straight track experience to hold Ingratiating in good stead.

 

(8) Mt Buller has jumped out nicely and draws barrier one which can help young horses navigate the course, depending on where the jockeys come.

 

(9) Frost Flowers won impressively here over 1000m before starting $1.65 and running a narrow 3^rd to Dosh at Caulfield. I’m pretty heavily against the 2yo fillies’ form outside of Enthaar and think the two boys have her covered.

 

Tip: (1) Ingratiating- $3.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Ingratiating

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Quality little contest and I think it could be a race in two. (9) Regardsmaree is the obvious. He’s absolutely flying having won 3 of his last 4, including a 3.2L win last week. He’s on the quick backup and at peak fitness which will see him hard to beat again. Perhaps the one query is he gets away from Caulfield, with his Flemington form not as good, but he’s clearly come back a better horse so can’t be judged too harshly. With the minimum 54kg he’ll take plenty of holding out.

 

(2) Buffalo River is the key threat fresh. He didn’t win last prep but took on higher quality races- the highlight a 2^nd to Mr Quickie in the Toorak Handicap. First up last prep he was only run down late by Windstorm, and I’d rate Windstorm a better horse than Regardsmaree. His first up record is very strong (5: 2-2-0) and he maps to lead from barrier 5. I love the booking of J Kah- she rode him for 3^rd last prep when he was coming out of a brutal Cantala and he still ran well behind Junipal. His 1400m record is also outstanding and the two Flemington jumpouts have both been good under a hold when coming from just off the speed. He’d prefer a soft track but again, the Toorak run was on a good 3 and that would win this race easily. If he’s fit enough, I think he can knock off Regardsmaree.

 

(7) Morvada next best- he’ll be keeping Buffalo River company on speed and gets in with just 53.5kg after the claim. He’s never won at Flemington but has run 2^nd three times, including a narrow defeat to Sansom at this T/D two back.

 

Siding with Buffalo River at the better odds, but Regardsmaree is the horse to beat.

 

Tip: (2) Buffalo River- $3.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Buffalo River

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Really looks (8) Coolth’s race to lose again. He’d put in two okay runs over shorter trips but went to a new level last start at this T/D, really powering over the final 200m. He’s only been penalised 0.5kg for this as it’s a bm84, but the race is no harder than last start. The form out of is strong with Long Arm and Yulong Captain running 1-2 since. He should only be fitter 4^th up and off that run it’s hard to see much beating him.

 

(10) War Critic beat Hasseltoff last start. He was afforded every chance there thanks to D Lane, who sticks from barrier one. I think it’s a slightly weaker form line, but Lane should find the gap from 1.

 

(4) Takumi couldn’t match Coolth when they met but has won nicely at Caulfield since. I don’t think that was a very strong race either and he looks short enough at $4.80 given Coolth dropped him late and potentially has more improvement to come.

 

(1) Runaway could be the blowout. He’d prefer this to be 2400m, but I liked the first up run over an unsuitable 1400m when running on. He was given no hope racing 3 wide no cover on speed last start at this T/D. He’s had a 1500m trial since where he was ridden out and won by 7.5L, with a few behind him also under the whip and struggling. The camp have replaced Ethan Brown with Olly and he’s got the blinkers on 3^rd up. Drawn wide- he’ll cross and go straight to the front and keep them rolling.

 

Tip: (8) Coolth- $2.80 at TAB

Value: (1) Runaway- $23.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Coolth, 0.25 units E/W Runaway

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Tricky race with a few resuming, including Oaks winner (1) Personal. First up last prep she was beaten 2.8L over 1200m behind Doubtland before running 2^nd to Instant Celebrity over 1400m. She’s clearly quite adaptable over a range of distances and it’ll be interesting to see how she’s come back. She’s well suited under the weight conditions, being a g1 winner.

 

(2) Island Joy was completely luckless two back behind Bella Tiara but atoned for that with a 4.8L demolition in a class 1 over 1600m. She’s had 5 weeks between runs and a jumpout for this 1400m run.

 

(3) Vespertine beat Island Joy home two back before going back last start and rounding them up nicely. She can go forward or back but given how she won last start I’d expect her to be ridden off the speed.

 

(4) Zou Dancer ties in easily with the two above after beating Sensationalisation last start over this T/D. She’s trialled in between runs and gets J Kah on from a good gate.

 

Found this quite tough- Personal is clearly the best horse on exposed form and is sharp enough to win at 1400m, but with bigger targets down the track and drawn a tricky barrier one I can’t back her. The other three mentioned are all very evenly matched and there’s not really an angle for me.

 

Tip: (2) Island Joy- $4.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

A bit more clarity here- I think (6) Skyman is a good bet at $5.00. He was very good first up over 1400m in a very similar race/field, coming from near last to run 4^th, beaten 0.9L and running the race fastest last 800/600m in the process. He’s much better suited at the mile and given he was only first up there should improve lengths. There looks good speed on paper with a few likely to vie for the lead, which should suit Skyman.

 

The 3yo (10) Milton Park has won two straight this prep and now steps up to the 1600m. This is a much harder race than taking on some fairly average benchmark 3yo’s, and a strong 1600m would be some query.

 

(11) Independent Road drops 3kg down to 54kg after finishing 3^rd to Aussie Nugget last start. He races better at Flemington and wouldn’t shock with Lane sticking from a good gate.

 

(2) Dadoozdart looked like he needed further than the 1400m first up and can improve. He hasn’t really put in an Australian run that screams back me, but he’ll strip fitter and does have talent.

 

Tip: (6) Skyman- $5.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Skyman

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Great race, the CS Hayes Stakes. There are angles everywhere in a very open market. (9) Aysar is the narrow favourite after running 2^nd to Portland Sky first up over 1200m. He looked to have every chance there but couldn’t quite sprint after travelling well. The 1400m will obviously suit.

 

(14) Here To Shock is the new horse on the scene having won his last two at the midweeks. He was strong at Sandown two back before a let up in a fairly strong 3yo bm64 and resumed with a dominant win at Geelong when racing on the speed. He draws wide but Bossy could take him right forward and even lead this field.

 

(10) Dom To Shoot is a classy WA 3yo. His last run was in the g1 Kingston Town, finishing 3L off Truly Great and Inspirational Girl. All his other runs in 3yo company were very good without winning, often coming from a long way back from wide gates. He draws wide here so I’d expect they go back again.

 

(8) Embolism has trialled well at Geelong- he was only 1.45L off Poland and Grandslam at this T/D last prep (which now reads well) before winning by 3L at Caulfield. He started $4.80 against Crosshaven and Aysar in the Carbine Club but pulled up lame. Olly sticks with him and rode him in the trial. I think he could be one that’s improved a bit since last prep.

 

(6) Brando is a talented NZ 3yo who possesses a big final 200m. He won impressively over 1200m and 1400m this prep before starting $1.80 in the g1 Levin Classic, flashing late to just miss over 1600m. He’s drawn barrier 12 and is another that will be charging late.

 

Could’ve easily missed the winner here- (13) Cambourne has been trialling very well and (5) Mo’unga is very talented and gets Kah. Great race!

 

Tip: (14) Here To Shock- $11.00 Sportsbet

Value: (8) Embolism- $17.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Here To Shock, 0.5 units WIN Embolism

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

For my runner by runner preview of the Group One Lightning Stakes, please follow the link: https://www.racingbet.com.au/lightning-stakes-2021-runner-by-runner-preview/

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Tough finish, but I do think we can get a result. (7) Zakat has trialled nicely in Sydney. His first up record is solid, as is his 1200m record. Some of his form last prep around Criaderas and Icebath reads well for this. He draws for Kah to find cover and balance him up to the outside.

 

(2) Laverrod is a classy WA sprinter resuming off 10 weeks. He’s in a similar boat, with a good first up record and a very good 1200m record. Last run at 1200m he beat Celebrity Queen, who arguably should’ve won the Winterbottom. First up over 1000m he was only 1.7L off Indian Pacific which reads well for this. He’s got 60kg even after Stockdale’s claim, and he’s not riding in great form at the moment.

 

(1) Milwaukee is a bit in the wilderness but his record at this T/D is still very good. He wasn’t suited first up over 1000m, racing with no cover on the inside, 4.5L off Fabergino. He’s got 61kg even after the claim, but it wouldn’t shock to see him improve.

 

(10) Platini is racing very well but easily looks the weak spot in the market. I don’t think he’s beaten much and had every favour on a heavy track last start. I’d be laying him the place.

 

Backing Laverrod, saving Zakat, something on Milwaukee.

 

Tip: (2) Laverrod $5.50 Bet365

Also Backing: (7) Zakat- $4.60 at Sportsbet

Value: (1) Milwaukee- $21.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Laverrod, 1 unit WIN Zakat, 0.25 units WIN Milwaukee