Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, August 11th

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

(3) Festivus wasn’t beaten far in a hot maiden on debut behind Toomuchtobear and Mr Brightside, with that form stacking up very well. The last start win was a bit tradesman like but perhaps that was down to the synthetic surface, which he may not have appreciated.

(1) Baglioni has been racing in Saturday grade in the 3yo series but has been up a long time.

(2) Fuzz Buzz looks ready to win 3rd up after two solid efforts on wet tracks this prep.

(6) Tycoon Bucks wasn’t far off Turaath last start which reads very well since Saturday.  

 

Tip: (3) Festivus- $3.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

Very tricky race. The 1000m specialist in the race is (5) Sapphire Crown who is first up and did win first up over 1000m at Flemington last prep, beating Modear. Query with him is a firming track- he’s much better on heavy.

(1) Ashlor was well beaten in much stronger grade last start by Red Can Man. His runs prior weren’t too bad, especially for this grade. He’s generally consistent and certainly classy enough to handle all conditions.

(2) Sir Kalahad isn’t an 1000m horse. He dropped back to the trip two back at Morphettville and was well beaten, bouncing back to bolt in over 1200m last start. He’s also better on heavy tracks.

(3) Tony Nicconi wasn’t too bad last start but hasn’t won in forever.

I don’t want to be with Sapphire Crown unless it’s wet, Sir Kalahad on a drying 1000m is poorly suited and I’m left with Ashlor, having his 51st start.

Tip: (1) Ashlor- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Ashlor

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 1:36pm (AEDT)

(5) Marchons Ensemble could be ready to do something finally getting out over a trip here in Australia. He had one start back in March and was spelled afterwards and has returned quite well. He struck a biased track at Cranbourne last start but still ran home well and gets out to 2400m which will suit. In a race where all of these are deep into their preps with little upside, he appeals.

(10) Auf Weidersehen ran well behind Royal Crown at Caulfield last start. That was on a soft 6 which is probably as dry as he wants it, having never placed in 8 tries on good tracks.

(9) Lofty Heights was poor last start in a strange race that really brought out the best stayers. His run prior from back in the field was excellent, it’s just whether he gets out the barriers from 1.

(3) Heir To The Throne was 1615m up to 2500m last start and ran well behind Smokin’ Romans.

Tip: (5) Marchons Ensemble- $13.00/3.90 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Marchons Ensemble

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 2:11pm (AEDT)

(4) Flash Flood returns after nearly a year off. He won two of three starts in his first prep against some fairly average 3yo’s, although he did have the Guineas winner Lunar Fox behind him in his MV win. His form ties in with the equal favourite through Jay Gatsby.

(3) He’s The Real Deel was a somewhat surprise winner first up, backed into $19, sitting wide but proving far too good. If he replicates that he’s the horse to beat but he stays at 1300m which is potentially an issue.

(11) Bossdom not the worst roughie.

Tip: (4) Flash Flood- $3.30 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

This is a cracking race between some very progressive horses. At the prices, I’m siding with (7) Eagles Crag who I have a big opinion of, as do the stable. His two wins in Aus have been very good, dominant in a maiden and comfortable despite sitting 3 wide no cover before a spell. If he’s wound up enough he’ll go close, and the stable are aiming high at a Cox Plate.

(5) Mr Brightside has bolted in his last two by a combined 8.8L. This is harder and he will be on a good track for the first time but with race fitness he’s the horse to beat.

(3) Nikau Spur does look a silly price at double figures when you consider the longest he’s ever started in Australia is $4.20, where he won by 3.8L. Been a bit hit and miss but does tend to race well fresh given he started $2.70 last start behind D’aguilar and King Magnus, he’s worth a bet.

(9) Ayahuasca was dominant last start in mare’s grade getting out to 1600m. Back onto a drier track and this is much harder, but the win was very good.

 

Tip: (7) Eagles Crag- $3.90 at Sportsbet

Value: (3) Nikau Spur- $10.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Eagles Crag, 0.25 units WIN Nikau Spur

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

Was ultra-keen to keep following (7) Tuvalu after two defeats to I’m Thunderstruck, the latest by 0.5L in an excellent performance. I wish they’d stayed in harder grade and we were getting a price, because he’s as short as $1.50 here and will very likely win. Doubt we get a whole lot better but he’s around a $1.40-1.50 shot and should just win.

(8) Worsfold the obvious and only danger was an absolute moral beaten last start and has been in great form this prep but will be giving Tuvalu a head start and I don’t think he’s as good.

Shocked if they don’t run the exacta.

Tip: (7) Tuvalu- $1.55 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

(5) Elidi does look the horse to beat, coming off a strong first up run behind Awapuni Princess. She ran the third fastest last 600m of that race and did run 2nd to Fighting Harada when 2nd up last prep. Track will need to be playing fairly but there isn’t a whole lot of depth to this race.

(10) Quintello resumed with a dominant maiden win at Warracknabeal. That was a weak race but he did it well.

Not sure what to make of (1) Puckapunyal who has the talent but was very plain on the synthetic first up. Her WA form is easily good enough for this.

Tip: (5) Elidi- $3.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Elidi

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

She’s had a few chances but this does look the ideal race for (10) Ziavera. Both runs have been good this prep, running 2nd to Twist Of Fury and Brazen Bully. She drops back to her own sex, draws well and did win 3rd up last prep.

(14) The Sisters was 2.75L in arrears of Ziavera when they met at Cranbourne. She meets her better at the weights but Ziavera was only first up there and now has a senior jockey.

(11) Dream Effort won on debut at big odds but was outclassed at Flemington subsequently. She’s only had two starts and has plenty of scope to improve.

(5) Miss Starway next best.

Tip: (10) Ziavera- $2.40 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Ziavera