Ascot Racing Tips: 2021 Perth Cup Day

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

(2) Storm Whisper comes up the short-priced favourite here after destroying his rivals on debut at Bunbury. He was backed as if unbeatable, from around $1.75 into $1.28, and he bolted home by 6L from the front. He couldn’t have been more impressive, but I’m not sure he beat anything at all. I can’t get him as short as he is, but he is likely to get every chance in front with the way the track could play early.

(1) Policiere is the one I’ll be sticking with. She didn’t have any luck on debut but she atoned for that defeat with victory here last start. She drew barrier 1 and got the gun run on that occasion so she’ll have to do it differently from barrier 10 today, but I think she’s a filly with plenty of ability. She beat Flying Missile, and Ultimate Command was back in 4th. Storm Whisper ran 2nd to Ultimate Command in a trial and that horse looked to have his measure, while Policiere went on to have Ultimate Command’s Measure. So if you marry those things up, I think Policiere should be closer to Storm Whisper in the market than she is.

(5) Toppa The Mountain can go well at double figure odds for Dan Morton while (11) Vranyo has trialled well and must be respected.

Tip: (1) Policiere $4.25 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Policiere, 1 unit WIN Storm Whisper

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Tricky little race.

Expecting the track to favour those on speed early, so (7) Bourbon Beau goes on top at $5.50. He was only run down late by Hot Mix first up, and Hot Mix then came to town and won again. Then he led all the way to win comfortably at Pinjarra last time out. Draws the inside gate here and with Tash Faithfull riding in Esperance for the day, Kyra Yuill picks up the ride. Should be aggressive early and will take some running down.

(3) Keep Your Feet is the stablemate of Bourbon Beau and I thought his first up run was very good. He stepped away slowly and it was game over from there as he settled last while Madam Torio led comfortably. By the time he got out and chasing, Madam Torio was off and gone, but he still finished well in an encouraging return. Drawn wide today so if he ends up back near last again, he’ll find it tough to run them down, but he did win second up last prep so if he steps cleaner and goes forward, he’ll be right there at the finish.

(4) Our Danni was able to box seat and win easily last start. Expect her to go forward from barrier 8.

(2) Bumper Humper has trialled well on two occasions leading into his first up run today and Carleen Hefel sticks with him after saluting on Our Danni last start.

Tip: (7) Bourbon Beau $5.50 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Bourbon Beau, 0.5 units WIN Keep Your Feet

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

I’ve been with (3) Ration Aly all prep and I won’t be jumping off today. She’s had nothing go right in three starts back from a break – luckless first and second up before finishing off well from too far back last start. Jockey change today with Paul Harvey replacing Joe Azzopardi and she draws well in barrier 3, so expect a more positive ride than last start.

(5) Kia Ora Star isn’t a horse that wins out of turn – in fact, he’s made a career out of turning it up – but he gets his chance to improve today. He was given a glorified trial first up, snagged back to last by the apprentice at Bunbury, where it’s impossible to win from back there. Kyra Yuill goes on today, draws well in barrier 5 so should be much further forward, has placed in all three starts at this track and distance, and went close second up last prep.

(4) Dark Mission followed its first up win with another decent run last start. He didn’t have the clearest path in the straight but should get plenty of clear running from barrier 10 today.

Tip: (3) Ration Aly $2.70 TAB

Value: (5) Kia Ora Star $13 TAB

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Ration Aly, 0.5 units E/W Kia Ora Star

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(5) Leica Jaguar looks to have found another suitable race to continue the picket fence he’s building. He’s won his past three starts, all of which have been over this track and distance. Overall, he’s had six starts at the Ascot 1000m for five top-two finishes. He draws the inside gate today so will need a touch of luck but on his current form, he’s the horse to beat.

(7) Amelia Bedelia should be ridden more aggressively today. She’s going well without a great deal of luck in her past two starts.

(6) Giant Leap looks under the odds at $3.60 for a horse that’s first up and probably needs 1400m. He’s never raced at this distance before and is likely to get back so happy to take him on.

Tip: (5) Leica Jaguar $2.80 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Leica Jaguar

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Leaning the way of (2) Tycoon Storm who comes into this a month between runs and should be fresh enough for the drop back to 1200m. My concern is she’s never won below 1400m before, but she should have won over this distance two starts ago when she had no luck at all. Barrier 1 today should see her box seat with Brad Rawiller on board and she should be right in the mix.

(4) Cryptic Love looks a big price at $26. She doesn’t help herself with her racing pattern but she’s had no luck at all in her past two starts. She was held up the entire straight two starts ago before being blocked from about the 150m mark when she was just starting to get warm last start. With any luck she can be competitive at a big price.

(6) Platinum Bullet took the scalp of Resortman last start and gets Pike on board today. My query is she was dominant second up last prep before failing third up.

(7) Power Of St George next best, while it will be interesting to see how (5) Pearls And Prawns returns first up with no trial.

Tip: (2) Tycoon Storm $4.40 Sportsbet

Value: (4) Cryptic Love $26 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Tycoon Storm, 0.25 units WIN Cryptic Love

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Giving (2) Chantrea one more chance today with the step up to 1800m third up from a spell. I thought she ran well first up but I was a bit disappointed with her last start, albeit she was only beaten just over a length. Pike once again sticks with her and this is D-day.

(1) Dance Music has a tremendous record at Ascot, with six wins and five placings from 14 starts. She got her birthday last start in the Starstruck Classic when able to dictate throughout, and she was thrown in at the weights. She’s pretty well thrown in again today but the little query is 1800m, which she’s never run over before.

(6) Naughty By Nature finished off well last start despite not having the best of luck in transit. Drawn well in barrier 3 today. Look for her to be finishing strongly.

(3) She’s Alight is underrated by the market once again but she’s hardly put a foot wrong in her past two starts and gets the run of the race from barrier 4 again.

(9) Aberdeen Queen was an exceptionally tough watch last start when she somehow ended up three back on the fence from barrier 8 and ran up backsides the entire straight. Not sure if she has the class to win this but wouldn’t underestimate her.

Tip: (2) Chantrea $3.10 Bet365

Value: (6) Naughty By Nature $6.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Chantrea, 0.5 units WIN Naughty By Nature

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(7) Indian Pacific looks the best bet of the day here in the Listed Summer Scorcher. He was last seen running in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes behind Elite Street five weeks ago. He’s been freshened up and from all reports he looks super at the track. The drop back to 1000m suits, the winkers come off for the first time, Chris Parnham goes on and he draws well in barrier 4. He’s won three of his four starts at the track and distance and he looks the best horse in the race, so he should be incredibly hard to beat. The other huge positive is the scratching of Mervyn this morning, meaning he should be able to dictate out in front.

(4) Carocapo is flying but the drop back to 1000m isn’t suitable for him.

Tip: (7) Indian Pacific $1.90 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 5 units WIN Indian Pacific

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

The Perth Cup shapes as a fascinating race with the inclusion of (1) Truly Great, who will have to carry 60kg over the 2400m. He gives all bar two of his rivals 6-7kg in the weights, so this will be a real stiff test, especially from barrier 12, but I think he’s got plenty on his rivals so I’m going to stick fat. He’s won five of his six starts this prep and was untouched when taking out the Ted Van Heemst last start. With any luck, I think he wins.

(4) Neufbosc is flying since his move to WA and he was an easy winner of the ATA Stakes on Boxing Day. It was a super ride by Paul Harvey on that occasion and Chris Parnham jumps aboard today due to the horse having 54kg. Draws ideally in barrier 4 so should enjoy a very similar run to what he had last start.

(3) Princess Jenni is the other horse that adds a bit of intrigue to the race, coming across from Melbourne. She’s a Group 1 winner and her best form would see her be very competitive in a race like this, especially given how much of a drop off there is from the top few. Often, the best form for 2400m races is 2400m races, so she brings a very solid set up to the race and shouldn’t be underestimated.

(13) Midnight Blue is the one that’s flying under the radar. He was ultimately a touch disappointing last start but he drops significantly in the weights and has been aimed at this all along.

Tip: (1) Truly Great $2.25 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Truly Great

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(15) Winifer is a knockout chance here at huge odds and I suspect she will drift right out in betting close to the jump. She’s only won once in her career but it was at this distance and I thought her last run was the most encouraging one we’ve seen in quite some time. She basically came from last and made ground between runners in the straight, beaten just 2.5L on the line. She’s not the worst bet in the race.

(3) Treasured Crown draws awkwardly out in barrier 14 but he’s won three of his four starts and comes off a win over this track and distance last start. I think $6.00 is a decent bet for him.

(4) Mr Delegator looks well placed. He should strip fitter after stepping up to 2200m from 1600m last start and he should find the lead.

Wide open race.

Tip: (3) Treasured Crown $6.00 Sportsbet

Value: (15) Winifer $31 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Treasured Crown, 0.25 units WIN Winifer