Canterbury Racing Tips: Friday, January 1st

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

Not a race I want to overly bet in with a lot of unknowns, especially with the weather the way it is. (3) Comporta may be unraced, but she has had six trials in total with two of those in the lead up to this race. Both trials this time in she has led, so it is expected she will do the same again from the inside barrier or even sit behind her stablemate who also likes to lead. I thought she was much better suited to her latest trial which was on a soft track which gives me great hope that she will be able to lead here and hold her ground late.

(6) Single Tonite showed first-up last preparation that a soft ground won’t give her much grief and showed in her latest trial on the heavy going that it didn’t overly phase her, though she wasn’t tested. Depending on how the track plays, she could give our top pick a bit of grief.

(8) Virgo is the current favourite and has showed in her last two that she is one-paced. I don’t expect her to be a factor and could be a good lay bet if you like playing on Betfair.

Tip: (3) Comporta $4.25 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

I think the Waller/Clipperton connection can take out the first two races here and this girl looks to have above average talent. (3) April Rain got going early in her only run to date almost a year ago and hit the line well behind Quantico here at Canterbury. She comes into this on the back of two trials with the latest on a soft going, where she accelerated nicely. She looks to have come back in good order and should run a bold race with 1250m suiting her better first-up.

Not sure if (4) The Fossil is up to the same grade as (3) April Rain but I do think he can run bold race at big odds. Although he took a shortcut in his debut, I thought he ran well on the heavy going at Scone to warrant some respect here. Probably needs a bigger track but you never know in the big city.

I am very interested to see how (2) Kaptive has returned after his failure first-up. Yes he ran third, but he didn’t live up to the expectation of the race and it was a long third.

Tip: (3) April Rain $2.00 Bluebet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Another race and another maiden here at Canterbury, again no confidence in this with the form and conditions. (1) For Valour looks the one early doors at a nice price, who is coming back off a 20 week spell where he was gelded. His two starts last preparation had plenty of merit with the son of Zoustar holding on for a brave second at Kembla Grange first-up behind the talented Private Eye before fighting hard late for fourth at Warwick Farm behind Joviality, despite being wide for the entire trip. He is drawn the widest but comes into barrier 12 with the scratchings as I write this and will no doubt go forward after two fitness building trials.

His stable mate (4) Major Artie poses a big threat after his third placing at Newcastle. He was under the pump from the get-go after he blundered the start and making the rider become unbalanced. He was then stuck behind a wall up the straight and getting out around the 150m mark to finish off well.

Can’t get my head around why (7) Blaze Seven is favourite and I expect her to drift in the market.

Tip: (1) For Valour E/W $6.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 23, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

Happy to have my first bets of the evening around these two over the 1900m. (5) Amoretti was impressive at Wyong just over a fortnight ago and he will look to continue it here. He stalked the leader over the mile in a weaker class before streaking away for a comfortable 3.8 length win. He will get a similar weight here, a favourable draw and with little speed he should be able to do exactly the same as his last outing. If he steps up to the grade, he will be hard to hold out late.

The other I like at massive odds is (1) Pirate Ben who is coming off a nice win at Taree over the mile carrying 61kg. This was no mean feat and he is no stranger to running well in town when brought here. He gets a nice 2kg claim from a brilliant apprentice and will no doubt go forward from the wide barrier due to his racing pattern and the fact there is little speed engaged. If he can reel off some cheap sectionals (which Chris Williams has been known to do in staying races), he will be hard to run down, especially if more rain hits.

(2) Merlinite and (6) Savvy Crown are big dangers and even (8) He’s A Given can run a massive race on a wet track. There is plenty to play out weather wise prior, but all five runners mentioned can run massive races.

Tip: (5) Amoretti $4.60 Bluebet

Value: (1) Pirate Ben $21.50/$4.65 Sportsbetting E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Amoretti FIXED, 0.5 unit EACH WAY Pirate Ben FIXED

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

Another race, another two-bet race which could go either way depending on the weather. (6) Front Money looked gone first-up in the straight but really picked up late but remaining fourth. She was very strong through the line and I love that they have kept her over 1100m here. She is drawn well here in a similar grade and will be in a forward position throughout. She should handle the conditions whichever way they go.

(1) Buckin’ Beauty is a nice each-way bet as we look for the Lane/Williams connection in back-to-back races. The daughter of Delago Deluxe ran well in her only trial and generally runs very well fresh. She gets in nicely with the 2kg claim of Chris Williams and if more rain comes, they will be rubbing their hands with glee. I think she is drawn well to head forward and may just kick away in the straight.

(3) Triple Ace is aiming for four wins in a row though the query will be the wet ground. You can’t deny his form and if it dries up, he comes even further into play.

(10) Unstoppabelle resumes in Sydney and her return will leave a few punters holding back on other runners.

Tip: (6) Front Money $3.40 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Front Money FIXED

 

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

I can never seem to catch him, but I will be hoping (7) Eleven Eleven can make it back to back wins. He was extremely impressive in the Wyong Stakes chasing down the leaders and saluting by just under a length. He is third-up fit here and doesn’t mind a bit of rain but will have to contend with a poor draw. If Keegan Latham can get him into a nice spot from out there, I have no doubt his 5kg weight drop from last start will come in handy late.

I am not convinced (1) Easy Eddie is on his back end and believe he can hit back here with a bit of sting out of the track. He had excuses first-up running wide without cover throughout and his history shows he runs better second-up. I wouldn’t be leaving him out and could get to a big price.

(10) Inanup and (12) Spaceboy don’t mind the sting out of the ground and can run well here as well.

Tip: (7) Eleven Eleven $4.60 Palmerbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

On the back of two placings at this track and distance in his last two runs, (4) Catapult is again well into this market and well-drawn to have an impact on this race. Two runs ago, he was too far back as he flashed home to finish less than half a length in third behind Charretera and Liberty Sun before finishing less than half a length in second behind Smart Image. He did beat Liberty Sun on this occasion who has since won in town. He gets all the same favours and a nice draw and I expect him to be in finish.

(3) Lord Zoulander is good odds to run a big race as well as (2) Partners, especially if the track is playing leaderish late in the night.

(5) Super Contender has been disappointing so far in Sydney and I expect that to continue.

Tip: (4) Catapult $3.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Catapult FIXED

 

Odds Last Updated: February 25, 2021, 11:21am (AEDT)

Tough race to finish the night on but I think we have found some nice value with (6) Miss Redoble. She missed the kick by two lengths last start and was immediately on the back foot before finishing off the race well, finishing third by 2.7 lengths behind Dame Kiri and just 0.2 lengths behind Pitchfork. The visors have been applied to her for this start which hopefully will help her start well enough to obtain a better position from barrier two. She handles all ground and will handle the extra 150m.

(5) Foxborough will love the rain turning up and if it does, her draw will mean little as all ground will no doubt be tested.

(3) Bergen came from a fair way back last start and will be hoping the rain doesn’t come so he can give this race a fair shake-up.

Tip: (6) Miss Redoble $9.60/$3.05 Sportsbetting E/W

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Miss Redoble FIXED, 1 unit PLACE Miss Redoble FIXED