Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, January 2nd

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Pretty keen to get involved early, because (1) Impecunious looks very hard to beat in the opener. She was very good on her Australian debut over 1200m, sitting back in the small field and powering away to beat a pretty handy horse in Winsum by 2.25L. The step up to 1400m will definitely suit, and if she brings that performance again, I think she’ll be too strong late, even if she does have to get back in the field from the wide barrier.

(2) Sensationalisation was my best bet last start and couldn’t get the job done. I thought she had every chance there but was soundly beaten by Zou Dancer. She does draw to do no work from the inside, which is generally beneficial at the 1400m start.

Not much between the others, and I think Impecunious can win a group race or two this Autumn, which should see her winning here.

Tip: (1) Impecunious $2.60 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy- 3 units WIN Impecunious

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

In an open race, (1) Campese looks to get a few things in his favour. He was a good winner first up and hasn’t had much luck since, including last start at this T/D where he got too far back in an on-pace race and rattled home for 2^nd. He is a horse that can race closer to the speed, so hopefully Childs can settle him midfield from barrier 4. With plenty of pace on paper, he should get his chance.

(16) Moeen draws awkwardly in barrier 13, but she looks close to a win. She was wide and only beaten 0.7L 2^nd up.

I thought it was interesting Olly takes the ride on (11) Galgani, coming off a narrow bm58 win at Cranbourne. It’s a huge jockey change from Brian Park, but I couldn’t really find the horse.

(7) Ocean Heart is first up off a long spell but does have talent, having run 4^th in the Tasmanian Oaks last prep. She generally likes to lead or sit on speed, and from barrier 16 that’s going to be very tricky, especially at the 1400m start.

Tip: (1) Campese $7.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Campese

 

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(10) Perfect Illusion looks a touch of value here. Two starts ago he wasn’t far off Miyake, who won at Flemington and goes around as a leading chance in the Bagot. Last start he SP’d $3.10 at Sandown but raced tight for room and was galloped on quite badly. He was only beaten 2.8L and meets the winner of that race better at the weights whilst getting a senior rider on.

(12) Lady In The Sky was the winner of that race and has to be respected but is half the price of Perfect Illusion here despite starting longer than him last start and the weight differential.

(6) Coin Collector bolted in last start stepping up to 2200m. This looks a stronger race and he won’t get the same set up here, drawn wide with plenty of go forward types.

(4) Laundy is also accepted at Flemington and is racing well, but is yet to tick the 2400m box and didn’t beat a whole lot last start.

Tip: (10) Perfect Illusion $15.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Perfect Illusion

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

They’ve kept (9) Housay ticking over for a while now, but he keeps racing very well and is the horse to beat here in my opinion. He was very strong in the bm90 grey’s race, sitting close to a fast tempo but fighting strongly, and was very unlucky last start at The Valley, getting further back than usual off a slow start and finding trouble in the straight. He’s had 5 weeks between runs but does stay at 1200m so he should be fresh, and if he maintains his form he’ll be hard to beat here.

(10) The General comes here first up at 1200m which is interesting, given his last four starts have been at 1000m. He’s had a bit of a boom on him since a 3L win at Cranbourne, but I’m happy to oppose here at 1200m off a long break, especially at $4.00.

(8) Evening Glory lost on protest first up at The Valley but should be fitter here. He’d perhaps prefer 1400m but will run well, as will the horse he lost on protest to in (7) Cielo D’oro.

Tip: (9) Housay $3.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN Housay

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Race 5

Plenty of pace here over the 1100m, and another very open race. Sickeningly, I can again make a case for (4) Excelida. She drops back to the 1100m which I don’t think is necessarily a bad thing. I’m happy to forgive last start down the straight where she was ridden close to the speed and didn’t finish off. Back around a bend suits, she draws well, and the speed looks genuine. If she runs up to her fast finishing 2^nd to Snapdancer (who won a good race in Sydney subsequently), she’ll be awfully hard to beat here.

Flostar generally races well fresh, excusing last prep where she pulled up with a heart irregularity. She’s a speedy mare that likes to find the front, which could be difficult from the wide gate.

(6) Foxy Lady won 1^st up last prep and then started $3.10 against Ancestry at The Valley.

(9) Knowles also has form around Ancestry at this T/D. She was a good run last start behind Miss Albania, who she meets again here. Getting away from The Valley should help, as does the booking of Kah.

Tip: (4) Excelida $9.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Excelida

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

This would have to be the race of the day, with some promising types engaged, none more so than (3) Hydro Star. He’s only had two career starts, but he was talked up as a leading Caulfield Guineas chance after his debut run over 1000m, where he came from a long way back and won very impressively. He was then spelled after running last in the Vain Stakes, where he pulled up with post-race issues. He’ll get back from barrier 12, but if he’s right he’s too talented to ignore at double figure quote.

In my only somewhat biased opinion, (8) Zion was a moral beaten last start at Flemington. John Allen opted to ease right off heels, basically stopping the horse in its tracks, before it powered home down the outside to run 3^rd to Written Miss. He drops back to 1100m here which probably isn’t ideal, but his maiden win two back at 1000m was very good. The market loved him last start and I have to follow my money here.

(6) Dickin Medal started $1.95 on debut at Geelong and won well. It was only a narrow margin, but the 2^nd horse Rising Sphere has won since and there was a gap back to 3^rd.

(1) Esta La Roca is flying and was dominant last start at The Valley. She got every favour there and was given a great front running ride. She steps up to 1100m and could be forced to cover a bit of extra ground, but she’s hard to knock.

Tip: (8) Zion $5.50 Sportsbet

Value: (3) Hydro Star $10.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Zion, 0.5 units WIN Hydro Star

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(8) King Magnus just went down last start at Flemington but meets the winner 1.5kg better and draws inside. He’s a consistent horse that should run well again.

(6) Paperboy jumps up from 1100m to 1400m which I find interesting. He’s been unplaced from two attempts at the distance, and most of his form beyond 1200m is a bit shaky. He was a good run last start and gave the indication that more ground would suit, but I’m not sure Caulfield 1400m is his go.

(10) Regardsmaree was a good winner first up for the new stable. Her 2^nd up form is strong, and she did run a 0.2L 2^nd at this T/D when 2^nd up last prep, beating home a few borderline stakes class 3yo’s. She draws very wide here which is the main concern.

(7) Grinzinger Allee is a handy horse resuming. Since coming to the O’Brien stable, he’s never raced below a mile, but he’s got the class.

(11) Metronome is racing very consistently and draws well.

Tip: (8) King Magnus $5.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy- No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Not sure what to make of (1) Terbium here. He was absolutely dominant first up at Gawler, but he does generally race well fresh, and his form in Melbourne is a bit scratchy. If he brings that performance, he probably wins this, but it’s hard to know which version will turn up.

(9) Sword Of Mercy is a very consistent mare and was a strong winner first up over 1000m at Flemington. She’s better suited at this circuit in my opinion, and if Terbium doesn’t fire I think she’ll be hard to beat.

(10) Overkill has delivered nothing this prep and has turned into a money muncher. He couldn’t get near Sword Of Mercy last start, and even though 1100m around a bend suits better, I can’t have him.

The race really falls away after that. I’m pretty confident one of Terbium or Sword Of Mercy wins, and seeing as the latter is more consistent, I’ll side with her at the better odds.

Tip: (9) Sword Of Mercy $4.20 Bet365

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Sword Of Mercy

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Tricky way to finish the day. (14) Aussie Nugget should be ready to peak here 3^rd up. His run last start was solid in a fast race, coming off a 4 week break and only 2^nd up. His 3^rd up record is very good and he gets right down in the weights.

(13) Walking Flying had no hope given the race shape last start but ran on well with 58kg. She drops down to 53.5kg after Stockdale’s claim, but will get a long way back again from a wide gate and is probably better suited to Flemington, or up in trip.

(3) Black Sail was good in the Aussie Nugget race when caught wide early. He’s got a big weight and wide draw to contend with but is racing well.

(8) Think ‘n’ Fly beat them both home there and has obvious claims.

Tip: (14) Aussie Nugget $5.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Aussie Nugget