Ascot Racing Tips: 2021 Winterbottom Stakes Day

Good little three-year-old race to kick off the card.

(8) Sockoff should lead this and I think she’ll take some running down with 54kg. When Dion Luciani horses find the front, they typically prove hard to get past. She bolted in last time we saw her when breaking the maiden tag at Pinjarra and her recent trials have been good.

(1) The Front Bar just keeps winning, now with four from seven starts. Has to carry the full 59.5kg today and will likely be last during the run, but she just finds a way and will be charging home late.

(2) He’s Gold should find this easier than what it’s been contesting recently and the inside draw is a big help.

Tip: (8) Sockoff $5.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Sockoff

Very ugly race to bet into so we’ll be staying out.

(3) That’s Funny Az was caught in a speed battle in the Northam Cup, with both leaders knocking up to finish 15L at the rear. Prior to that the horse was going well and obviously he didn’t pull up all that well from Northam because the pads go on his feet today. Holly Watson will go straight to the front and if he gets the race run to suit, will take some catching.

(4) Utgard Loki hasn’t done a whole lot in his first two runs back from a spell but gets Pike on third up today from barrier 1. No shock to see sharp improvement.

(7) Money Maher would be very hard to beat if he brought his best form. Had to sit wide at his first two starts last prep in Group 3 and Listed company, and that’s the concern today with an awkward draw.

(2) Cockney Crew ran well at his first start back from a long break. That was behind Kissonallforcheeks who then ran 3^rd in a Railway.

Tip: (3) That's Funny Az $4.60 TopSport

Value: (4) Utgard Loki $11 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

Good sprint race this with a couple of the Winterbottom emergencies engaged.

I think $11 for (5) All Day Session is over the odds. He won two on the bounce, including a win over subsequent Railway Stakes placegetter Kissonallforcheeks, before encountering plenty of bad luck behind Elite Street in the Colonel Reeves last start. The form guide says he ran 13^th of 15 but the run was much better than that. Just needs to get clear running from barrier 2 to play a part here.

(9) Secret Plan should almost be undefeated this prep. First up he was very impressive and has run 2^nd in both starts since then. Two back he sat three-wide the trip and last start he charged home behind Wilchino.

(6) Triple Missile was absolutely enormous behind Wilchino two starts ago but failed to fire last time out. He had to chase from the back of the field but he was still a little bit plain in the run home. New jockey again today, if he manages to bounce back to the form from two starts back he’ll be very hard to beat, but the jury is out somewhat after that last run.

Tip: (5) All Day Session $12.20 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W All Day Session

Pretty keen on (2) Nowhiteflag to make amends here in the Westspeed Platinum Final. We’ll know our fate after 50m I think, because if he bombs the start like he did last time, the ticket will be confetti. The second part to that is if he does jump, just how well he settles in front. If he pings the lids like he did first up and is able to relax out in front without anything pressuring him, I think he’ll handle the 1400m and win.

(1) Holy Enchantment was good first up behind runaway winner Apple Schnapps. He has a very good second up record with a win and two 2nds from three starts. He’ll sit midfield and hit the line. $8.50 is a decent price for him.

(12) Dais changed tactics to go back last start and they didn’t get a whole lot of luck in the run to the line. Pike goes on today and they draw the outside gate again so it will be interesting to see whether they go back again or choose to revert back to being positive.

Tip: (2) Nowhiteflag $2.40 Bet365

Value: (1) Holy Enchantment $8.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Nowhiteflag, 0.5 units WIN Holy Enchantment

(3) God Has Chosen was a good thing beat last weekend, held up at a crucial stage of the straight before charging home along the inside when the race was over. He was only beaten less than half-a-length and now steps up to 1400m on the quick back-up. Much like Treasured Star last week, I don’t think Pike will want to make the same mistake two starts in a row so expect he’ll be winning this.

(1) Son Son is a good horse and is unbeaten first up. He has a good record at the track and distance and with Holly Watson aboard, will be positive early.

(8) Tri For Us returns having been on an Oaks campaign last prep. She’s another horse I have a lot of time for, it’s just whether she’s sharp enough fresh against a few good horses here.

Tip: (3) God Has Chosen $1.80 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN God Has Chosen

The Regional Championships Final here is always a bit of a lottery but I’ll be leaning towards the Geraldton and Kalgoorlie form references this year.

(4) Semigel draws 14 which appears a bad draw, but it’s the draw this horse needs. He’s no good when strung up inside horses because he doesn’t like taking gaps. He did it three starts ago with Pike aboard and then again last start in the qualifier. Needs to get to the outside so the draw allows him to do that.

(7) Scandolo won the qualifier in Kalgoorlie and Pike goes on for Peter Fernie, and this combination have teamed up for success in this race in the past.

(8) Warm ‘N’ Fuzzy draws wide as well but I actually think it could work out fairly well for this horse. He’ll go forward and can either lead, sit outside leader, or even take hold and park behind a couple of horses that are likely to press forward from his outside. The apprentice just went too quick on him last start but the horse is going really well.

(6) Delago Dehero next best.

Tip: (4) Semigel $18 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: No bet

(4) Midnight Blue didn’t get much luck first up but bolted in last start in the Ascot Gold Cup. Only going to improve up to 2100m and looks set to be just about unbeatable all the way through to the Perth Cup. I think the only thing that beats it today is if it’s standing a leader a huge break on the turn.

(5) Marocchino finds a very suitable race and more importantly, gets a very suitable map. Should be able to lead this unless Juicing Carrots wants to kick up, in which case Marocchino can sit outside the leader. He had to chase up Mr Delegator in the Gold Cup last start, rather than being able to dictate. McGruddy will suit this horse.

(7) Bad Wolf would have made it interesting if he got clear running earlier in the straight in the Gold Cup. He was held up until the race was all over and hit the line really well.

Tip: (4) Midnight Blue $2.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Midnight Blue

The Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes.

With even luck, I really think (2) Elite Street goes back-to-back. He comes into barrier 9 which is a perfect draw for him. If he can get into a three-wide running line like he did last start, he’ll be awfully hard to hold out. He’s been sublime in three starts this preparation and Dan Morton has got the real Elite Street back firing after an Autumn/Winter campaign where he just wasn’t right. He carried top weight of 59.5kg and started from barrier 14 in the Colonel Reeves, but it didn’t make a difference, proving too strong for his rivals. He meets all of those horses better at the weights back to WFA conditions today which makes him incredibly hard to beat.

(16) Wilchino draws the inside gate and the big question will be, does she lead? Do they use the draw to their advantage to try and run them off their legs, or do they take a sit and box seat to make sure she sees out a strong 1200m with plenty of other speed engaged? She profiles similarly to how Elite Street did last year, coming out of rating races straight to a Group 1, but she can’t have been any more impressive in the lead up to this.

(3) Red Can Man has a very poor draw in 10, as there’s a stack of speed drawn inside him. He’s going to need a slice of luck and a very good ride from McGruddy to slot in on speed. His first up run in the Colonel Reeves was super considering he was underdone coming off a Melbourne campaign. He went into that short of a gallop and without a trial. Sure to improve off that run and will be right thereabouts.

(15) Graceful Girl comes into barrier 16 which isn’t the end of the world for her because she gets a long way back anyway. She finished off well behind Elite Street in the Colonel Reeves but meets him 3kg worse at the weights today and is very likely to be giving him a headstart once again.

(9) Stageman has all the ability but finds a new way to get beat every start. Up there with the most unlucky horses in WA.

(11) Iseered Iseered is a new kid on the block, (12) Long Beach isn’t hopeless and (1) Rock Magic will run his usual honest race in his final start.

Tip: (2) Elite Street $2.60 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Elite Street

(2) Apple Schnapps has now won five of his past seven starts after demolishing his rivals on stable debut for the Gangemis. It was only a Westspeed Platinum race and he does have to step up to a 72+ race today, but he can’t have been more impressive last start. The Gangemis have a knack of getting tried horses and improving them, and who’s to say this horse can’t keep improving under their care? Goes forward and will be hard to beat again.

(6) Beret led last start which is completely against its usual racing pattern. It favoured those on speed at that stage of the day so the move to go forward paid dividends. I doubt they end up that close today with lots of speed in the race.

(4) Bogart is a horse with two sides to him. No surprise to see him show up fresh but he’s hard to trust.

Tip: (2) Apple Schnapps $5.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Apple Schnapps