Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, December 11th

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 2:52pm (AEDT)

(4) Queen Of Soul won well first up, defeating Ambergate Rose who then came out and won her next start to frank the form. Draws well in barrier 3 today and provided they can make some ground early in the day, I think she’ll be very hard to beat again. Some query her winning first up last prep and then failing second up, but trusting Simon Miller to have her right.

(3) Safety Bay probably finds the lead here and with the rail back in the true position, could take some running down.

(8) Western Rhythm was luckless first up at Belmont and should have won. Pike gets replaced by CJP today but this just isn’t a horse I have a great deal of trust in.

Tip: (4) Queen Of Soul $3.40 Bet365

Saver: (3) Safety Bay $6.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Queen of Soul, 0.5 units WIN Safety Bay

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 3:32pm (AEDT)

Cracking little three-year-old race here with some very talented types.

(4) Rockin’ Rupert couldn’t have been any more impressive on debut, cruising home by 2L with a bit more left in the locker. Draws well to likely sit outside Wuhan Warrior here and a repeat performance would see him hard to beat again.

(1) He’s A Sizzler has had six starts for a win and four 2nd placings. The form around Trix Of The Trade from last prep was very strong. He’ll be out the back from the gate and he might be left with a bit to do, but he’s a smart horse.

(3) Wuhan Warrior gets a much better set up here with the senior jockey going on from barrier 1. Expect him to lead today and Shaun McGruddy is up there with the best frontrunning riders in WA.

(6) Thomas Magnum is a talented horse but bumps into a few smart ones here.

Tip: (4) Rockin' Rupert $2.20 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 4:12pm (AEDT)

(4) Beads finds a beautiful race after going toe-to-toe with The Front Bar last start. Tackles the older horses again today but The Front Bar form is good form and he gets a lovely draw in barrier 2. Can sit just off the speed and pounce.

(5) Agent Kensington is the value in the race at $8.00. Luckless last start at Belmont when held up the majority of the straight. Finished 4th and was never hit once by Chris Parnham with the whip. Draws nicely today and is a definite each way chance for an in-form stable.

Tip: (4) Beads $2.00 Ladbrokes

Value: (5) Agent Kensington $8.10 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Beads, 0.5 units WIN Agent Kensington

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 4:52pm (AEDT)

(5) God Has Chosen can continue his winning ways here and give Paul Harvey a nice winner on his return to riding from injury. He should be undefeated from four starts this preparation – he’s won two and was a moral beat in the two he ran 2nd in. Will be out he back watching it all unfold and should pick them up pretty easily.

(3) Fangio won a 72+ race first up with no trial last preparation and brings a similar set up today.

Stablemate (7) Brutus Maximus was a terrific run first up after being re-plated behind the gate. He’s won two from four when second up so can be included.

Tip: (5) God Has Chosen $1.55 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 5:32pm (AEDT)

(4) Proconsent looks another short-priced favourite that finds a nice race to win again. Carried 60kg to victory last start and did it easily. Pike is replaced by CJP today and with even luck looks the horse to beat.

(2) Utgard Loki might have given things a shake if he had any clear running in the straight last start. Instead he ran up backsides to the line. Apprentice takes over from Pike today which isn’t ideal and will need some luck again.

(3) Playing Marika drops back to the mile from the 1800m of the Ascot Gold Cup. Won over this track and distance two starts ago.

(9) Red Publisher drops to a rating of 72 now and has been running home in the fastest final sectionals his past couple of starts. Not completely hopeless at big odds off this sort of mark.

Tip: (4) Proconsent $1.95 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 6:12pm (AEDT)

(5) New Amsterdam showed good improvement from his first up run to his second up run and now gets up to 1400m third up. He does step up in grade from a Class 3 to a Saturday race, but this isn’t a vintage field.

(7) Speed Dream rarely runs a bad race, but he rarely wins one too. Just on win from 13 career starts now and while the form around the likes of Secret Plan, Big Screen, Pure Devotion and God Has Chosen all looks strong, he keeps finding one better.

(1) Island Missile is flying but gets a tricky gate/map, ditto for (3) Kendel’s Mee Dad.

Tip: (5) New Amsterdam $11/$3.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W New Amsterdam

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 6:42pm (AEDT)

(8) Jedi Mind went form a maiden to a 3YO Handicap last preparation, which included three wins. Looks to have returned nicely and gets a great draw. Should sit midfield at worst with some good speed in the race and he’ll be hard to hold out with luck.

(12) Island Charm is knocking on the door for another win. She ran 2nd to Written Matter two starts back, who then won again last weekend. Last start she sat wide the trip and finished 3rd to La Farola and God Has Chosen, the latter also winning his next start. Chris Parnham on today and with any luck from the draw she’ll be very hard to beat.

(2) Charge ran well behind Triple Missile and All Day Session last start.

Tip: (8) Jedi Mind $4.20 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 7:27pm (AEDT)

(13) Pure Devotion is flying, with four wins from five starts this prep, and that could have almost been five wins with any luck first up. Past two wins have been over this track and distance so with a good ride from the tricky gate, looks the horse to beat.

(4) Marocchino comes off a last-start win in the JRA Trophy, bouncing back to his best. Lou Luciani’s stable is flying and this race sets up well for him again with a couple of bunnies to chase.

(9) Bad Wolf ran 2nd to Marocchino and rarely runs a bad race. Can figure again.

(14) Stafford’s Lad will be back near last in the run and giving away a big start again but he motored home in the JRA Trophy.

(11) Black Shadow steps up in grade after saluting in 66+ company last weekend.

Tip: (13) Pure Devotion $2.60 Neds

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Pure Devotion

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 8:02pm (AEDT)

(1) Holy Enchantment steps out to the 1800m for the first time this preparation after two good runs over 1400m. He’s been crying out for this sort of trip but he just needs a good ride from the wide gate.

(10) Bragwell draws a lovely barrier in 3 and comes into this on the quick back-up after finishing off strongly over the mile last weekend.

(4) Koranis gets a senior jockey on and is rarely far away in these sorts of races.

(3) Brave Angel was very disappointing last start but Carbery reported he was concerned over her action. Forgive her for that because her run prior was good.

Tip: (1) Holy Enchantment $4.00 Bet365

Saver: (10) Bragwell $4.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Holy Enchantment, 0.25 units WIN Bragwell