Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, December 11th

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 12:22pm (AEDT)

Another Saturday and another open Highway in Sydney!

If (22) Miss Ostend sneaks in the field after a few scratchings she looks a very good winning chance. Has contested much better races than this and has run okay in them. A recent trial was very good, bolting in by 9L and I think she is just better than this grade.

(5) Shelby Sixtysix gets onto preferred heavy going and is generally competitive in these Highways.

(2) Casino Lord just got too far out of his ground fresh but ran on well and should improve off the back of that.

(15) London Gal next best.

Tip: (22) Miss Ostend - $3.50 at Betdeluxe

Betting Strategy: 1.5u WIN Miss Ostend

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 12:57pm (AEDT)

Was keen on (2) Media Starguest last start and was only beaten by an in-form horse. Is well back in grade for a race like this and looks pretty well placed after the claim. Back to the mile shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

(2) Heza Gentleman is a proper swimmer and will love the conditions today. Is in good form and can’t knock him.

(1) Travest looks ready to do something third up. Good last start over 1400m and will eat up 1600m.

Tip: (3) Media Starguest - $3.70 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 1:32pm (AEDT)

(2) Dragonstone could not have been more impressive first up over 1000m. Carried 51kg there in a tougher race than this but will still only have to carry 55kg here today. I think that’s reasonably well in and he looks a progressive sprinter. I think he’s arguably better over 1100m and there’s not too many horses here who will take him on upfront.

Always had a bit of time for (6) Kibosh and his record is nothing to sneeze at. Obviously tougher here and will be better over further but he’s not out of it.

(9) Bachanalia is 2/2 on heavy tracks and looked good winning last start at short odds in similar grade. Looks a big danger.

Tip: (2) Dragonstone - $2.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (6) Kibosh - $19/$4.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2u WIN Dragonstone, 0.5u PLACE Kibosh

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 2:07pm (AEDT)

Not that keen to bet into this race with a few suspect horses going around.

(4) Herman Hesse gave the winner 6kg last start to only just be beaten over this trip. Has been thereabouts in all runs in Aus and will once again be a strong winning chance.

(1) Mightybeel doesn’t know how to run a bad race and will be attempting to step up to this trip for the first time. Should see every favour from barrier 2 and is still on the up.

(8) Deniliquin was scratched midweek for this and he’s on the quick backup. Ran on  very well last start to just miss and the extra 100m will suit him.

Tip: (4) Herman Hesse - $2.40 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 2:42pm (AEDT)

(2) Boldinho was a very good debut run only narrowly going down to Ebhaar who looks well above average. They put a gap on the rest of the field and I doubt this guy will remain a maiden for long. He maps to get the run of the race today and should only improve following that first up run. Have a feeling that Ebhaar race might turn into a pretty good form reference and I think that will stack up well here in Sydney.

(1) Athletica ran slick time on debut and justified a short price there. He’ll lead here again and could take some running down.

Tip: (2) Boldinho - $2.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2.5u WIN Boldinho

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 3:22pm (AEDT)

(3) Incredulous Dream looks a good bet here. Was a good run first up off a long break and should take plenty out of that. Had a sneaky trial on heavy leading into that and looked to handle it fine. If that’s the case I think she will go very close.

(4) Irish Angel bolted in first up on her favoured wet conditions. Generally races a but flat second up but clearly has come back well.

(9) Cloudy looks the best value in the race.

Tip: (3) Incredulous Dream - $5.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5u WIN Incredulous Dream

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 4:02pm (AEDT)

(10) Snapdancer usually pulls out her best runs early in the prep and she’s got a bit of talent. Won a trial on a heavy track at Rosehill leading into this and she will be tough to run down carrying no weight.

(5) Edison looks the one at odds who can figure in the finish. Usually needs a run or two under the belt to bring out his best but if things fall his way he can win this.

(1) Eleven Eleven won a big race at Kembla last start after dropping back in trip. He’ll enjoy getting to 1200 now.

Tip: (10) Snapdancer - $4.60 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Snapdancer

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 4:42pm (AEDT)

Good race this and I’m keen to back a couple for a result!

Think (17) Brutality is one of the better value runners of the day. Was impressed with his run last week when back in trip and also on his less-preferred dry ground. He hit the line well there and is gonna get much more favoured conditions today. Drops massively in weight here and I think he will be running home strongly late on.

(15) Steely won’t know himself with 53kg here following a tough win with 60 on the back last start. Has a nice record 3rd up and will make his own luck up near the speed.

(6) Ellsberg will lead them up again and is airborne. Will take some catching once again and no knock on him.

(19) Kirwin’s Lane is another one who needs to go into the exotics and will improve here 2nd up. He can run a drum.

Tip: (15) Steely - $4.80 at TAB

Also Backing: (19) Kirwin's Lane - $10 at Ladbrokes

Value: (17) Brutality - $9.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Steely, 0.5u WIN Kirwin's Lane, 0.5u WIN Brutality

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 5:22pm (AEDT)

(9) Equation is going to suck me in one last time here. The run last start caught the eye and I’ve always had an opinion of him. Tommy Berry takes over today and from barrier 6 he’ll give it every chance. Maybe he’s looking for a very wet track?

(14) Witsabouthim was a big drifter on Aus debut but his runs in NZ were very good and I think he could bounce back at a price. This is obviously a big step up but I’m willing to forgive the fresh run.

(13) Ceaser’s Palace can lead this up and will be tough to run down carrying lightweight. Loves the wet conditions.

Tip: (9) Equation - $5.00 at Bet365

Value: (14) Witsabouthim - $20/$4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Equation, 0.25u EW Witsabouthim

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 6:02pm (AEDT)

(5) Brookspire was only beaten by the flying Expat last start and they gapped the rest of them. This is no tougher today, handles all conditions and up to 1400m is his go.

(6) Dynamic Impact is flying this time in, winning two on the bounce. Rises in weight again but can’t knock the form.

(10) Loveplanet is an interesting runner resuming. Showed a fair bit of ability and wouldn’t surprise me to see him run a good race here.

 

Tip: (5) Brookspire - $2.40 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2u WIN Brookspire