Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, December 11th

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 12:37pm (AEDT)

(10) Va Via has jumped out well for her debut, coming wide and hitting the line strongly. She’d be one of the top debutants.

(3) Kumicho comes through a strong race on debut won by Ebhaar. Up to 1100m looks ideal and he wasn’t beaten far in a sprint home there.

(5) Stupendo the other debutant that looks talented and has strong claims.

 

Tip: (10) Va Via- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 1:12pm (AEDT)

(8) Konkalikon can run a race at big odds here. I didn’t mind his run first up when unsuited in a dash home, running the 3^rd fastest last 600/400m of the race. His 2^nd up record is good with 2 wins from 3 starts and Flemington will suit. At $23/4.80 he’s worthy of a small bet.

(1) Eluding is flying this prep with two straight wins, including last start when putting 4L on Konkalikon. He maps well again and no reason he can’t win again.

(5) Royal Order drops back to 1600m on the quick backup which is interesting. I would’ve been keen to see him at 2000m again next start and this doesn’t look an overly fast tempo.

(9) Redwood Shadow struggles to win but has the talent if everything goes his way.

Tip: (8) Konkalikon- $23.00/4.80 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Konkalikon, 0.5 units PLC Konkalikon

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 1:47pm (AEDT)

She’s a tease but 1100m down the straight is where (2) Modear does her best racing. She’s only missed a place once at the T/D and that was a very good 5^th in a listed race. She’ll get back and hit the line as usual.

(9) Dance To Dubai has won both runs this prep and did it easily last start at The Valley. This is a different set up compared to an uncontested lead there, but she gets in with 53kg and will be in this for a long way.

(6) Florescent Star was okay first up over 955m but is better suited here. She’s generally quite consistent and can settle anywhere from the wide gate.

(12) Chosen Blonde is going well this prep and gets Kah on down in the weights.

Modear looks a good place bet with a winnable weight at her favourite T/D.

Tip: (2) Modear- $11.00/3.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Modear, 1.5 units PLC Modear

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 2:22pm (AEDT)

(2) Saracen Knight should be ready to peak here 4^th up, coming out of a fast run race at Ballarat over 2000m. His last 600/400/200m were the fastest of the race there when beaten 2.2L and now gets Olly on. He’s run well at 2400m in a Bendigo Cup so the trip should be fine.

(5) Seawhatyouthink beat Saracen Knight home by 2L last start and will get a soft run from barrier 2, ideally leader’s back. He’s a progressive horse that looks suited getting to 2500m.

(10) Ruru toughed it out well last start when up to 2100m. This is a fair bit harder but he gets a lovely map from barrier 4.

Fairly keen to back the two out of the Ballarat race, Saracen Knight and Seawhatyouthink.

Tip: (2) Saracen Knight- $10.00 at TAB

Also Backing: (5) Seawhatyouthink- $3.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Seawhatyouthink, 0.5 units WIN Saracen Knight

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 3:02pm (AEDT)

(4) Arran Bay stepped up from 900m to 1300m last start at Morphettville and was dominant when leading all the way. There’s a bit more pressure here but that last win was very good, with big margins through the field and in good time.

(3) Guardian Spirit needed all of the 1200m at Sandown last start but got there on the line after being backed into $1.75. Up to 1400m looks ideal now and he can settle closer from barrier 1. Looks the obvious danger.

(10) Secret Glamour worked through the line well first up at Sandown and looks suited getting to 1400m. She drops 5kg from last start.

(5) Dubai Nights can improve after a solid first up run at 1300m.

Not hard to find but confident Arran Bay or Guardian Spirit win and betting accordingly. Arran Bay the better result.

Tip: (4) Arran Bay- $3.20 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (3) Guardian Spirit- $4.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Arran Bay, 1.5 units WIN Guardian Spirit

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 3:42pm (AEDT)

(2) Lighthouse looks clearly the one to beat. Her two Australian runs have been very good, bolting in on a heavy track first up before recording another soft victory last time at Ballarat. She was backed into $2.05 there and did it easily. She maps beautifully from barrier 5, firm ground is no issue given her American record, and she’s still got upside to come.

(4) Bermadez drops back to 1400m from the mile of the country final. His win prior over 1400m was dominant in easier grade, he’ll just need another good ride from the wide gate.

(13) Do You Reckon was no match for Lighthouse last start but will be up on speed and give a kick.

(14) Another Award likely gets back from the gate but is racing well and should be fine at 1400m.

Tip: (2) Lighthouse- $2.45 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Lighthouse

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 4:22pm (AEDT)

Open race for the feature but I’m with (2) Sartorial Splendor first up. He’s got a great fresh record having only missed the quinella once, and last prep he really showed his consistency in being able to settle better in races. He won easily over this T/D last prep and the wide gate means Dee can keep him out of trouble and get into a rhythm which will make him very hard to catch.

(1) Halvorsen found his old form first up off a long break, sickeningly denying Malkovich on the line. He meets Sartorial Splendor better at the weights for running 2^nd to him last prep and will be charging home again. Small query perhaps staying at 1000m.

(6) Mileva was good in a strong mare’s race behind Minhaaj during Cup week. She’s been freshened for this but will need to be very sharp to keep up with Sartorial Splendor over 1000m.

(14) Capriccio looks the best roughie- she won at a big price first up down the straight last prep, but 1000m is the query with her.

Tip: (2) Sartorial Splendor- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Sartorial Splendor

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 5:02pm (AEDT)

Open race. (1) Royal Mile led and perhaps went too slowly in front last start at Caulfield in a group 3. This is easier and he was coming out of a couple slowly run races, so perhaps he was half a run short. He’ll give his all again.

(6) Just Benjamin drops back from 2000m to 1800m but dead heated a strong bm84 at Ballarat last start with Silent Sovereign. He gets a nice map from barrier 4.

(14) Irish Butterfly has drawn awkwardly in barrier 1 but was good late first up and generally runs well 2nd up. With 51.5kg and luck he can win.

(3) Sign Of Ussuri was good in the same race as Just Benjamin last start with 60kg. After the claim he now meets that horse 4.5kg better, and he did run 2nd by a nose to Regalo Di Gaetano the start prior, who won the group 3 at Caulfield. Query where he gets to on the map but any luck and he’ll be hard to hold out.

Tip: (1) Royal Mile- $6.00 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (6) Just Benjamin- $8.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (3) Sign Of Ussuri- $8.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Royal Mile, 0.5 units WIN Just Benjamin, 0.5 units WIN Sign Of Ussuri

Odds Last Updated: December 11, 2021, 5:42pm (AEDT)

(8) Sixbysixtythree is unbeaten from three career runs and has shown good versatility, leading two back before settling midfield and charging home last start. Drawn out very wide should be no issue down the straight and if he’s got another good run in him I think he can measure up.

(13) Kentucky Casanova resumed with a dominant win at Sandown in a bm64. He’s still got plenty of upside and is another drawn very wide.

(1) Housay has been rock solid in two runs in this prep and might be ready to produce his best. He’s 1/1 at the T/D.

(9) Pioneer River races well down the straight on good tracks. He’s another drawn right out and should be thereabouts.

Tip: (8) Sixbysixtythree- $4.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet