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Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, May 8th

WA racing continues with Eurythmic Stakes day at Ascot on Saturday and Tim Geers has previewed all nine races below.

ascot-racecourse

WA racing continues at Ascot on Saturday, with a nine-race card headlined by the Eurythmic Stakes.

The track is currently rated a Soft 5 after rainfall through the week in Perth, and the rail is in the 9m position.

Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card below.

Best Bet: Race 9 – (11) Billy Ain’t Silly

Best Value: Race 6 – (1) Moschard

PlayUp

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Race 1

Morley Growers Market (Bm72+) (1800m)
2:19pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Morley Growers Market (Bm72+) (1800m)
2:19pm (AEDT)

1. Cockney Crew (4) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (60.5kg) T: Kieran Mcdonagh
3.943.94.24.254
2. Notorious One (2) J: Brad Parnham (54.5kg) T: C & M Gangemi
665.55.55.25.5
3. Beret (5) J: Laqdar Ramoly (54kg) T: A G Durrant
3.13.13.13.13.23.1
4. Koranis (1) J: Keshaw Dhurun (54kg) T: Jarrad Noske
87.577.57.37
5. No Apology (6) J: Joseph Azzopardi (54kg) T: S J Miller
4.64.84.64.84.84.8
6. Yadreamin' (3) J: Shaun O'donnell (54kg) T: C R Green
1313121213.213

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 2:22pm (AEDT)

(5) No Apology looks to find a good race here. He beat Koranis over 1500m three starts ago, then got caught three-wide the trip two starts back when only beaten 2.5L, and he ran well in defeat over this trip last start. It’s been raining in Perth all week so I suspect there will be decent give in the ground, which will really suit this horse. He’s had four starts on rain-affected ground for two wins and a 2nd, while he’s had just the one win from 17 starts on good ground.

(4) Koranis bounced back to form last start with the drop back to 1800m, having failed to see out 2100m two starts back. That makes it three wins from his past four starts, two of which have been over track and distance. He draws the inside gate for a perfect run once again and he gets in with 51kg.

(3) Beret is banging the door down for another win. She’s motored home in her past two starts and the smaller field should suit today as she won’t be a mile off them on the turn.

(1) Cockney Crew drops in grade, will lead and comes up favourite but I’m keen to oppose.

Tip: (5) No Apology $4.00 BlueBet

Also Backing: (4) Koranis $7.50

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN No Apology, 0.5 units WIN Koranis

0

Race 2

Tabtouch-Westspeed (Rs0mw) (1400m)
2:59pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Tabtouch-Westspeed (Rs0mw) (1400m)
2:59pm (AEDT)

1. Fiery Water (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59kg) T: A G Durrant
4.84.64.24.64.74
2. Born To Try (5) J: Chris Parnham (58.5kg) T: L Smith
2.152.22.152.252.152.15
3. Al Di La (8) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (57.5kg) T: P W Mcleod
2120182121.518
4. Hip Wiggle (4) J: Brad Parnham (56.5kg) T: Michael Grantham
1212111111.811
5. Lock Her In (7) J: Ms Chloe Azzopardi (55.5kg) T: F R Kersley
1819191918.219
6. Blaiszen Cazah (2) J: Laqdar Ramoly (54kg) T: Ms C Stelmach
414141514141
7. Petite La Femme (1) J: Ms Madi Derrick (54kg) T: C G Willis
554.84.84.855
8. Stella Anne (3) J: Ms Lisa Staples (54kg) T: Ms C Stelmach
101010109.710

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 3:02pm (AEDT)

Looks a great race for (2) Born To Try if she is tuned up for this fresh off a nine-week break. She’s up to better races than a Westspeed No-Metro-Win race. Some query over resuming at 1400m given nine weeks ago she ran over 2000m, but I think she’s the best horse in this race and I trust this stable pulling off the unconventional prep.

(1) Fiery Water started single figures and pulled up lame in last week’s Westspeed Final, yet turns up a week later on the quick backup. On its run two starts ago, would be competitive.

(4) Hip Wiggle makes its debut for a new stable and gets the bar plates off which is encouraging.

Tip: (2) Born To Try $2.20 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Born To Try

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Race 3

Happy 70Th Terry Brennan Plate (1100m)
3:39pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Happy 70Th Terry Brennan Plate (1100m)
3:39pm (AEDT)

1. Ain't No Other Man (6) J: Jordan Turner (57kg) T: S & J Casey
2. Flying Missile (5) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham
1.81.81.751.851.781.65
3. Ultimate Command (4) J: Brad Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham
66665.66.5
4. Written Exceed (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: T M Andrews
7.57.578.58.47
5. Canny Jack (7) J: Laqdar Ramoly (56kg) T: Ms C Stelmach
1818171919.219
6. Astrape (9) J: Shaun O'donnell (54kg) T: D L Morton
554.854.95
7. God's Dream (3) J: Keshaw Dhurun (54kg) T: M Santich
126126101101121101
8. Wise Words (8) J: Joseph Azzopardi (54kg) T: D & B Pearce
615141414951
9. No Dice (1) J: Patrick Carbery (54kg) T: Ms S Evans
2321192119.821

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 3:42pm (AEDT)

(2) Flying Missile bounced back to the winners’ stall last start, appreciating the drop in class having finished midfield in the Karrakatta Plate two starts back. She only cops a kilo in the weights for that win so she should be very hard to beat again today.

(3) Ultimate Command got within a length of the stablemate last start and meets her a kilo better at the weights today, so that will level things up slightly, but I think Flying Missile is quite clearly the better horse.

(6) Astrape is the horse that may be able to cause the upset. She was about 2L behind Flying Missile last start but she was only first up, while Flying Missile was third up.

(4) Written Exceed was well backed and won easily on debut. That was a day that paid to be up on speed and the form out of that race has been ordinary.

Tip: (2) Flying Missile $2.10 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Flying Missile

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Race 4

Amelia Park (Bm62+) (1200m)
4:19pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Amelia Park (Bm62+) (1200m)
4:19pm (AEDT)

1. Chantorque (7) J: Jarrad Noske (60.5kg) T: Russell Stewart
5.55.5555.65
2. First Law (6) J: Chris Parnham (56.5kg) T: Simon Miller
4.84.84.64.64.254.6
3. Phanta (5) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56.5kg) T: J T Warwick
3.33.43.53.33.353.3
4. How's The Serenity (1) J: Peter Knuckey (55kg) T: Simon Miller
8.58.58.58.58.78
5. Captain Burglar (4) J: Keshaw Dhurun (54.5kg) T: N D Parnham
1616161616.617
6. Mercanto (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (54.5kg) T: C & M Gangemi
7. Sheza Chalmer (3) J: Patrick Carbery (54.5kg) T: B A Miller
5554.855
8. Eliminate (8) J: Brad Parnham (54kg) T: N D Parnham
1111111110.610

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 4:22pm (AEDT)

Tricky betting race.

(1) Chantorque was OK first up over the 1000m. She hit the line OK and was only beaten a touch over a length, but that’s probably a distance short of her best now and the step up to 1200m will suit. Notably, they put the blinkers on for the first time today, which I know the stable have been saving for if and when they need them. The main query has to be the weight – she has to carry 4kg more than the rest of the field.

(2) First Law gets Chris Parnham and blinkers on, which could be a winning combination. She was good first up in a race where the leader got away with murder.

(3) Phanta also made a good return to the races. Some query dropping back from 1400m to 1200m second up against some handy opposition.

(7) Sheza Chalmer started favourite first up but just couldn’t get into the race. I know she’s a filly with huge ability but she needs to improve.

Something on the top two.

Tip: (2) First Law $4.50 Bet365

Also Backing: (1) Chantorque $4.40 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN First Law, 0.5 units WIN Chantorque

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Race 5

Events At Ascot (Rs1mw) (1000m)
4:55pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Events At Ascot (Rs1mw) (1000m)
4:55pm (AEDT)

1. Panzdown (2) J: Patrick Carbery (60kg) T: Simon Miller
33.133.33.152.9
2. Apollo (6) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (58kg) T: S J Wolfe
353431313634
3. City Circle (1) J: Chris Parnham (58kg) T: N D Parnham
6.56.56666
4. Comes A Time (8) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58kg) T: J T Warwick
8888.57.98
5. Drinkwhatyoulike (5) J: Laqdar Ramoly (58kg) T: A G Durrant
3.33.23.13.33.353
6. My Blueboy (9) J: Keshaw Dhurun (57kg) T: P E Roberts
2626262627.526
7. Forest War (3) J: Jason Brown (56.5kg) T: J P Taylor
1212111210.611
8. Horizon (7) J: Jason Whiting (56kg) T: G L Carige
353431313634
9. Jag The Joker (4) J: Shaun O'donnell (55kg) T: A W Maley
101010101010

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 4:57pm (AEDT)

Good little contest. 

(1) Panzdown has returned with two wins from as many starts this prep. He has to go to another level today, as he meets the horse he beat last start 4kg worse at the weights. He’ll carry the full 60kg here, but I do think he had a bit more in hand when he won last start, so with the better draw, I think he can probably overcome that.

(5) Drinkwhatyoulike won first up and the horse she beat then came out and won. She then ran into Panzdown, who beat her by 0.65L and while that arguably should have been more, she does get a significant weight swing on him today. There’s no speed here so she potentially finds the front comfortably, which will make her hard to chase down.

(8) Horizon is a blowout chance here at $41. First up no trial and does have a good record on soft ground. Worth a spec at those odds.

(3) City Circle was narrowly beaten by Panzdown and Drinkwhatyoulike two starts ago. She then went around in the Westspeed Autumn Final last start where she was held up the entire straight. She can be very competitive but I think the top two in the market have her measure.

Tip: (1) Panzdown $2.90 Sportsbet

Value: (8) Horizon $41 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Panzdown, 0.25 units WIN Horizon

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Race 6

Crown Perth (Bm66+) (1200m)
5:25pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Crown Perth (Bm66+) (1200m)
5:25pm (AEDT)

1. Moschard (10) J: Brad Rawiller (61kg) T: Luke Fernie
775.56.56.66.5
2. Chix Pic (3) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (59.5kg) T: D R Harrison
1717171815.417
3. Some Sort (4) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (59kg) T: A G Durrant
8.587.58.587.5
4. Kenyluck (1) J: Ms Simone Altieri (57.5kg) T: A W Hughes
353431313634
5. Megazone (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57.5kg) T: A W Maley
98.589.59.58
6. Glasgow Girl (11) J: Ryan Hill (57kg) T: B P Graham
8.58.58.58.58.18.5
7. Skinnen Tins (8) J: Alan Kennedy (57kg) T: A W Maley
2326212125.526
8. Diablerie (7) J: Jason Whiting (55.5kg) T: Summer Dickson
161615151516
9. Angelic Miss (9) J: Chris Parnham (54kg) T: Simon Miller
2.82.82.82.82.82.8
10. Beau Zoom (2) J: Brad Parnham (54kg) T: N D Parnham
1718171716.419
11. Island Charm (5) J: Chris Nicoll (54kg) T: Roy Rogers
1010101111.29.5

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 5:28pm (AEDT)

The map is tricky for (1) Moschard here and he has to carry the full 61kg, but his first up run behind Miss Conteki was enormous. He sat three-wide the trip and still ran home strongly to finish 2nd. Miss Conteki then came out last weekend and won again to make it seven wins from eight starts. He’s got a good record on soft ground and if he’s able to reproduce a performance like that, he’ll give this a real shake at each way odds.

(6) Glasgow Girl is flying with back to back wins. She only cops a 2kg penalty for her last start win and she can be competitive once again.

(9) Angelic Miss ran 2nd to Glasgow Girl first up and meets her 2kg better at the weights. Chris Parnham sticks and she gets the tongue tie on for the first time. The map is ordinary but she’ll be hard to beat nonetheless.

(10) Beau Zoom wasn’t ridden well last start so he can be included at 20/1, but he might not be up to this class.

(3) Some Sort and (5) Megazone not hopeless in an open race.

Tip: (1) Moschard $8.00/$2.60 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Moschard

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Race 7

Eurythmic Stakes (2150m)
5:55pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Eurythmic Stakes (2150m)
5:55pm (AEDT)

1. Come Play With Me (4) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (62kg) T: A G Durrant
2.9333.13.053
2. Trap For Fools (2) J: Brad Rawiller (62kg) T: L Smith
3. Arctic Stream (7) J: Jason Whiting (61kg) T: R W Price
1617161617.217
4. Marocchino (8) J: Chris Parnham (57kg) T: L P Luciani
2.22.152.12.152.22.1
5. Big Shot Paddy (3) J: Chris Graham (56kg) T: J H Reynolds
1414141414.214
6. Mackenzie Brooke (5) J: Joseph Azzopardi (55.5kg) T: A G Durrant
141414141414
7. He's A Parker (1) J: Brad Parnham (55kg) T: H S Mclaren
353434312741
8. Final Chill (6) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (54kg) T: Kieran Mcdonagh
76.566.57.16

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 5:57pm (AEDT)

Tricky little race and the speed map could play a big part.

(2) Trap For Fools goes on top here. He has an unbelievable record at this track and distance, with eight wins and a 2nd from 10 starts. The soft track is potentially a negative, but he looks to get complete control of this race from a speed map perspective. He has to carry 62kg but if they let him get away with some cheap sectionals, he’s going to be awfully hard to beat.

(1) Come Play With Me returned to something like his best form first up. He ran home well with the big weight in the Diggers Cup. He goes well in soft conditions so he gets a track to suit, it’s just whether he can back up that big first up run.

(4) Marocchino is obviously the form horse in the race. He’s won three in a row leading into this, and he beat a very similar field in the Diggers Cup last start. He goes up 2kg in the weights, my main query is just how the race works out for him in terms of the speedmap. He got a gun run throughout last start, whereas from the gate today, he doesn’t seem to map as well.

Tip: (2) Trap For Fools $3.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Trap For Fools

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Race 8

Cannaponics (Rs1mw) (1600m)
6:25pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Cannaponics (Rs1mw) (1600m)
6:25pm (AEDT)

1. Sweet Angeline (5) J: Keshaw Dhurun (60kg) T: J T Warwick
1615141615.814
2. Karijini Aurora (4) J: Brad Parnham (59.5kg) T: Summer Dickson
109.599.510.29.5
3. Magic Will Reign (7) J: Laqdar Ramoly (59.5kg) T: A G Durrant
111110101212
4. Cuban Twist (1) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (58.5kg) T: D M Luciani
1920201818.221
5. Sentimental Queen (10) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58.5kg) T: Hayden Ballantyne
2.72.62.62.82.42.5
6. Eurasia (8) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (58kg) T: S J Wolfe
1010101010.210
7. Gifted Warrior (6) J: Joseph Azzopardi (57kg) T: D M Luciani
232121262023
8. Sluice Box (11) J: Alan Kennedy (57kg) T: A W Maley
8.58.588.58.48
9. Dipara (2) J: Jason Whiting (56.5kg) T: K J Mifflin
1819191917.819
10. Pretty Friar (9) J: Peter Knuckey (56.5kg) T: Ms J Erkelens
2121212122.526
11. Piccola Signora (3) J: Chris Parnham (55kg) T: N D Parnham
5.55.55.55.566

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 6:27pm (AEDT)

Open race. (11) Piccola Signora was the biggest moral beat you’ll see last start. She was $9.00 into $4.60 and should have won with a leg in the air. She settled last, was terribly held up at the 200m mark and then flew home once she finally got out. That was a day that proved to be tough to make ground too, which made her run in defeat even better than what it first appeared. She’s hit her straps now and with the positive jockey change, she should be able to go close in this.

(5) Sentimental Queen demolished her rivals first up over 1400m. She’s the horse to beat, no doubt, but she gets a trickier map today and also a soft track, which she hasn’t fired on in the past. She might well blow them away but it’s a harder assignment today.

Tip: (11) Piccola Signora $6.00/$2.25 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Piccola Signora

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Race 9

Conquer Cystic Fibrosis-Bm72+ (1500m)
7:00pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Conquer Cystic Fibrosis-Bm72+ (1500m)
7:00pm (AEDT)

1. Double Digit (13) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (60kg) T: A W Maley
818171718381
2. Majinika (2) J: Brad Rawiller (58.5kg) T: Summer Dickson
2019191920.519
3. Bunker Buster (3) J: Keshaw Dhurun (58kg) T: Coreen Maynard
201201101101221201
4. Tinsnip (1) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57kg) T: A G Durrant
6.5666.56.16
5. Creator (6) J: Brad Parnham (56.5kg) T: C & M Gangemi
6.56.56.5766.5
6. War God (10) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: N D Parnham
262626262231
7. Mr Alby (8) J: Troy Turner (55.5kg) T: Ms P Wagg
201201151151221201
8. Playing Marika (11) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (55.5kg) T: Ms S Bakranich
9. Rockon Tommy (5) J: Jason Whiting (55.5kg) T: J A Popescu
312131313334
10. Nelson's Flight (4) J: Shaun O'donnell (55kg) T: M Morton
515161615761
11. Billy Ain't Silly (7) J: Laqdar Ramoly (54.5kg) T: C H Webster
1.751.751.751.851.821.7
12. Bruce Almighty (9) J: Chris Parnham (54kg) T: N D Parnham
98.58.58.588.5
13. Sophie's Song (12) J: Patrick Carbery (54kg) T: Simon Miller
2120212117.621

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 7:02pm (AEDT)

(11) Billy Ain’t Silly has made it three wins on the trot since having the blinkers applied and he steps up to a 72+ now, which will be his biggest test. He gets in with a featherweight though, carrying just 52.5kg after the claim for Laqdar Ramoly. There are a couple of things he needs to overcome – there looks to be good speed in the race, he faces a potentially soft track, and he is up in grade, but he’s a pretty smart horse so with the weight swing on the others, I’ll back him to win again.

(4) Tinsnip comes off a last-start win. He did get things work out absolutely perfectly, but he gets barrier 1 today so should enjoy a sweet run again.

(5) Creator has won his past two and he’s one horse that could test the favourite on speed.

(8) Playing Marika can improve second up at good odds and (12) Bruce Almighty is always thereabouts.

Tip: (11) Billy Ain't Silly $2.10 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Billy Ain't Silly

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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