Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, May 8th

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 2:22pm (AEDT)

(5) No Apology looks to find a good race here. He beat Koranis over 1500m three starts ago, then got caught three-wide the trip two starts back when only beaten 2.5L, and he ran well in defeat over this trip last start. It’s been raining in Perth all week so I suspect there will be decent give in the ground, which will really suit this horse. He’s had four starts on rain-affected ground for two wins and a 2nd, while he’s had just the one win from 17 starts on good ground.

(4) Koranis bounced back to form last start with the drop back to 1800m, having failed to see out 2100m two starts back. That makes it three wins from his past four starts, two of which have been over track and distance. He draws the inside gate for a perfect run once again and he gets in with 51kg.

(3) Beret is banging the door down for another win. She’s motored home in her past two starts and the smaller field should suit today as she won’t be a mile off them on the turn.

(1) Cockney Crew drops in grade, will lead and comes up favourite but I’m keen to oppose.

Tip: (5) No Apology $4.00 BlueBet

Also Backing: (4) Koranis $7.50

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN No Apology, 0.5 units WIN Koranis

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 3:02pm (AEDT)

Looks a great race for (2) Born To Try if she is tuned up for this fresh off a nine-week break. She’s up to better races than a Westspeed No-Metro-Win race. Some query over resuming at 1400m given nine weeks ago she ran over 2000m, but I think she’s the best horse in this race and I trust this stable pulling off the unconventional prep.

(1) Fiery Water started single figures and pulled up lame in last week’s Westspeed Final, yet turns up a week later on the quick backup. On its run two starts ago, would be competitive.

(4) Hip Wiggle makes its debut for a new stable and gets the bar plates off which is encouraging.

Tip: (2) Born To Try $2.20 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Born To Try

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 3:42pm (AEDT)

(2) Flying Missile bounced back to the winners’ stall last start, appreciating the drop in class having finished midfield in the Karrakatta Plate two starts back. She only cops a kilo in the weights for that win so she should be very hard to beat again today.

(3) Ultimate Command got within a length of the stablemate last start and meets her a kilo better at the weights today, so that will level things up slightly, but I think Flying Missile is quite clearly the better horse.

(6) Astrape is the horse that may be able to cause the upset. She was about 2L behind Flying Missile last start but she was only first up, while Flying Missile was third up.

(4) Written Exceed was well backed and won easily on debut. That was a day that paid to be up on speed and the form out of that race has been ordinary.

Tip: (2) Flying Missile $2.10 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Flying Missile

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 4:22pm (AEDT)

Tricky betting race.

(1) Chantorque was OK first up over the 1000m. She hit the line OK and was only beaten a touch over a length, but that’s probably a distance short of her best now and the step up to 1200m will suit. Notably, they put the blinkers on for the first time today, which I know the stable have been saving for if and when they need them. The main query has to be the weight – she has to carry 4kg more than the rest of the field.

(2) First Law gets Chris Parnham and blinkers on, which could be a winning combination. She was good first up in a race where the leader got away with murder.

(3) Phanta also made a good return to the races. Some query dropping back from 1400m to 1200m second up against some handy opposition.

(7) Sheza Chalmer started favourite first up but just couldn’t get into the race. I know she’s a filly with huge ability but she needs to improve.

Something on the top two.

Tip: (2) First Law $4.50 Bet365

Also Backing: (1) Chantorque $4.40 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN First Law, 0.5 units WIN Chantorque

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 4:57pm (AEDT)

Good little contest. 

(1) Panzdown has returned with two wins from as many starts this prep. He has to go to another level today, as he meets the horse he beat last start 4kg worse at the weights. He’ll carry the full 60kg here, but I do think he had a bit more in hand when he won last start, so with the better draw, I think he can probably overcome that.

(5) Drinkwhatyoulike won first up and the horse she beat then came out and won. She then ran into Panzdown, who beat her by 0.65L and while that arguably should have been more, she does get a significant weight swing on him today. There’s no speed here so she potentially finds the front comfortably, which will make her hard to chase down.

(8) Horizon is a blowout chance here at $41. First up no trial and does have a good record on soft ground. Worth a spec at those odds.

(3) City Circle was narrowly beaten by Panzdown and Drinkwhatyoulike two starts ago. She then went around in the Westspeed Autumn Final last start where she was held up the entire straight. She can be very competitive but I think the top two in the market have her measure.

Tip: (1) Panzdown $2.90 Sportsbet

Value: (8) Horizon $41 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Panzdown, 0.25 units WIN Horizon

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 5:28pm (AEDT)

The map is tricky for (1) Moschard here and he has to carry the full 61kg, but his first up run behind Miss Conteki was enormous. He sat three-wide the trip and still ran home strongly to finish 2nd. Miss Conteki then came out last weekend and won again to make it seven wins from eight starts. He’s got a good record on soft ground and if he’s able to reproduce a performance like that, he’ll give this a real shake at each way odds.

(6) Glasgow Girl is flying with back to back wins. She only cops a 2kg penalty for her last start win and she can be competitive once again.

(9) Angelic Miss ran 2nd to Glasgow Girl first up and meets her 2kg better at the weights. Chris Parnham sticks and she gets the tongue tie on for the first time. The map is ordinary but she’ll be hard to beat nonetheless.

(10) Beau Zoom wasn’t ridden well last start so he can be included at 20/1, but he might not be up to this class.

(3) Some Sort and (5) Megazone not hopeless in an open race.

Tip: (1) Moschard $8.00/$2.60 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Moschard

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 5:57pm (AEDT)

Tricky little race and the speed map could play a big part.

(2) Trap For Fools goes on top here. He has an unbelievable record at this track and distance, with eight wins and a 2nd from 10 starts. The soft track is potentially a negative, but he looks to get complete control of this race from a speed map perspective. He has to carry 62kg but if they let him get away with some cheap sectionals, he’s going to be awfully hard to beat.

(1) Come Play With Me returned to something like his best form first up. He ran home well with the big weight in the Diggers Cup. He goes well in soft conditions so he gets a track to suit, it’s just whether he can back up that big first up run.

(4) Marocchino is obviously the form horse in the race. He’s won three in a row leading into this, and he beat a very similar field in the Diggers Cup last start. He goes up 2kg in the weights, my main query is just how the race works out for him in terms of the speedmap. He got a gun run throughout last start, whereas from the gate today, he doesn’t seem to map as well.

Tip: (2) Trap For Fools $3.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Trap For Fools

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 6:27pm (AEDT)

Open race. (11) Piccola Signora was the biggest moral beat you’ll see last start. She was $9.00 into $4.60 and should have won with a leg in the air. She settled last, was terribly held up at the 200m mark and then flew home once she finally got out. That was a day that proved to be tough to make ground too, which made her run in defeat even better than what it first appeared. She’s hit her straps now and with the positive jockey change, she should be able to go close in this.

(5) Sentimental Queen demolished her rivals first up over 1400m. She’s the horse to beat, no doubt, but she gets a trickier map today and also a soft track, which she hasn’t fired on in the past. She might well blow them away but it’s a harder assignment today.

Tip: (11) Piccola Signora $6.00/$2.25 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Piccola Signora

Odds Last Updated: May 8, 2021, 7:02pm (AEDT)

(11) Billy Ain’t Silly has made it three wins on the trot since having the blinkers applied and he steps up to a 72+ now, which will be his biggest test. He gets in with a featherweight though, carrying just 52.5kg after the claim for Laqdar Ramoly. There are a couple of things he needs to overcome – there looks to be good speed in the race, he faces a potentially soft track, and he is up in grade, but he’s a pretty smart horse so with the weight swing on the others, I’ll back him to win again.

(4) Tinsnip comes off a last-start win. He did get things work out absolutely perfectly, but he gets barrier 1 today so should enjoy a sweet run again.

(5) Creator has won his past two and he’s one horse that could test the favourite on speed.

(8) Playing Marika can improve second up at good odds and (12) Bruce Almighty is always thereabouts.

Tip: (11) Billy Ain't Silly $2.10 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Billy Ain't Silly