Ascot Racing Tips: Wednesday, April 21st

Going with the Simon Miller/William Pike combination here in the first. (3) First Law is a stakes-placed gelding who ran 2nd to Kissonallforcheeks before finishing 3rd in the Fairetha Stakes. Has trialled well ahead of his first up run today and Pike going on tells you plenty.

(4) Shezachalmer is a horse I love and it hurts me to take her on today. She was ultra-impressive two starts ago in a Class 1 at Bunbury before she started even money in town against the likes of First Law, who she meets again today. She was a bit flat that day so it was no surprise she was tipped out for a break. She resumes today and may well just be better than them, but I’m leaning the other way.

(2) Son Son is another with plenty of talent. He’s got two wins and two placings from his four starts. All of his runs have been over 1400m+ so first up at 1200m against a couple of sharp types may be the query, but he does get blinkers on for the first time.

Tip: (3) First Law $2.70 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN First Law

Happy to sit out of this one.

Three of the top fancies all come out of the same trial, those being (2) Rommel’s Command, (5) Northern Ruler and (7) Written Exceed. Rommel’s Command narrowly won that but I wouldn’t be jumping into the $2.45 off that trial. Northern Ruler would probably be the one I’d want to be on out of the trial but there’s no real urge to be backing any of them.

(8) Electric Rose is the interesting one, on the quick back-up from last week where she was very ordinary. Prior to that she was very good on debut. Maybe it was the three weeks between runs that saw her race poorly, or maybe she’s not as good as I expected. We’ll see what today brings.

Tip: (5) Northern Ruler $5.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

What a low race this is.

(3) Powerful Force almost goes on top by default, because there’s just nothing else. he’s placed in his past three starts and was reasonable behind Allmamoney last start, which would be good enough to win this, but he’s had his chances. He hasn’t exactly looked to be bursting to win a race, so you’d be a brave man to be jumping into $2.25.

(5) Gee Force and (9) Piccola Signora come out of the same race, where they ran 2nd and 3rd. Piccola was the better run but will be coming from a long way back again today.

(10) Coralita ran 3rd on debut in a small field at Pinjarra. It was a terrible race so hard to be confident in that form.

Tip: (3) Powerful Force $2.25 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Always hard to know how a horse first up from a 34-week spell without a public trial is going to go, but pretty keen on (4) Sunnysilk here. If she turns up in her best form, she should be going very close to winning this, and she finds a very suitable race. She’s only missed a place once from her seven starts. Pike goes on for trainer David Harrison today which is obviously a positive sign.

(3) Island Charm would give this a big shake if he produced the form that saw him beat the likes of Iseered Iseered and Gemma’s Son, but he’s struggled in his past few starts now.

(1) Noble Reflection has placed in both starts this prep and drops back to 1000m now.

(5) Classic Chant can race well fresh so is a smokey at big odds.

Tip: (4) Sunnysilk $2.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Sunnysilk

(3) Treat Yo Self goes on top after a very narrow defeat first up at Bunbury, where she just got outbobbed. She’s now run 2nd in her past four starts, which is some cause for concern but she gets absolutely every chance again today to win another one. Pike sticks on, she’ll relish the extra 1000m and should strip fitter.

Who knows what we’ll see from (5) Reciting. She bolted in when stepping up to the mile two starts ago, putting 5L on her rivals. They then put her straight up to 2400m for the Oaks, where she ran 7th. Has had three weeks since that run and drops back to 1800m. It’s an odd prep but she could come out and win easily, or she could race flat off that Oaks run. Hard to know.

(2) Completed is one to throw in at big odds. He was only beaten just over a length last start and comes into this third up from a spell, which is when he won his only race.

Tip: (3) Treat Yo Self $2.25 Bluebet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Treat Yo Self, 0.25 units WIN Completed

Backing two with confidence here.

(3) Tradem’ In was a good run first up at Bunbury when coming from back in the field on the rail to hit the line well in 3rd, beaten a length. It’s not easy to make ground at Bunbury, so her run was full of merit. Back on her home deck today, she looks very hard to beat in this field.

(7) Rock This Country has been super in two runs back this prep. He worked home strongly first up over 1400m and looked the winner at the 200m last start before just peaking slightly on his run. Barrier 1 might be a bit tricky as he tends to get back in the field, but he’s going really well and can win.

Tip: (3) Tradem' In $2.80 Bet365

Also Backing: (7) Rock This Country $5.50 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Tradem' In, 1 unit WIN Rock This Country

Something on a couple at decent prices here.

(8) Paris Girl was very good first up over 1000m here, recording the fastest final 400m of the entire meeting. She finished 4th on that occasion after settling last. Interesting to see where they try and settle from barrier 1 today. There is a cutaway in place and if she’s able to get clear running in time, she should finish off hard with the step up to 1200m.

(5) Reguardless won first up last prep and then went on to run a good 2nd to Dash Doll, which is reasonably good form for a race like this. Fresh for a new stable today, can go well.

(6) Michelle Ma Belle gets Pike on which catches the eye, especially as he jumps off the Simon Miller-trained favourite.

(1) Captain Burglar gets a big drop in class.

Tip: (8) Paris Girl $4.80 Bluebet

Also Backing: (5) Reguardless $8.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Paris Girl, 1 unit WIN Reguardless

(3) Mercanto is the horse to beat after a good run behind Iseered Iseered first up, but I couldn’t take $1.85.

I think at the prices, I’d rather be on the Pike runner (4) Prize Pursuit at $4.00. He was luckless in defeat at his second start at Pinjarra, and made up for it with a dominant win at his third start. He went straight for a spell and resumes today with pike on board. At the prices, I’d rather be on him than the favourite.

(1) Beau Zoom drops heavily in grade and should take some catching in Class 1 company.

Tip: (4) Prize Pursuit $4.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Prize Pursuit

Looks a lovely race for the favourite to end the day here. (1) Lord Lonsdale sat three-wide the trip first up over 1200m for apprentice Kristy Bennett and was still only beaten 2.8L. Up to 1500m today and Pike goes on, so he gets a significant jockey change as well as a suitable step up in distance. Looks his race to lose, as the market suggests.

Tip: (1) Lord Lonsdale $1.90 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Lord Lonsdale