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Ascot Racing Tips: Wednesday, December 8th

Tim Geers previews the seven-race card at Ascot in WA on Wednesday.

ascot-racecourse

Midweek racing returns to Ascot in WA today, with seven races set t be run earlier than normal due to extreme heat.

The first race will jump at 10.17am AWST, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail out 11m.

Tim Geers has previewed every race below, along with his best bets for the meeting.

Best Bet: Race 3 – (1) Trevern

Best Value: Race 6 – (11) Merivale Magic

Ladbrokes

Race 1 – Maiden 1800m

Just a very ordinary way to start a meeting this.

(4) Hoist The Colours was fairly useless over the shorter trips but has started to show something over the longer journeys. He’s had no luck in running at his past two starts but has battled on well into 4th on both occasions. Drawn much better today, can figure.

(3) Freedomofthepress gets up in trip after consecutive placings and should go well.

(6) Not A Word did it tough on his WA debut but he’s drawn the inside pole and goes straight from 1200m to 1800m second. Could show improvement at huge odds.

(12) Cafe Nera has been sound in her two runs this prep but has a tricky gate to overcome.

(15) Rommel’s War was disappointing last start but form prior was good.

Tip: (4) Hoist The Colours $6.00 TAB

Betting strategy: No bet

Race 2 – 3YO No Metro Wins LY 1200m

(1) Ponyo drops out of Listed company back to a NMW race and gets a 3kg claim to bring her down to 56kg. She has some trouble seeing out the 1200m but she won’t get a better chance than this with the track set to be firm and conditions hot, which could make it hard to make up ground.

(2) Probity will be suited if the rails are the place to be, especially during the run. She beat Buzzoom on debut and that form has proved very strong, while the form behind Red Fifty Three and Let’sdeal also looks good.

(8) Seduce Me and (9) The Velvet Queen will have to come from off the speed but the latter’s form has stood up with the horse she beat last start since winning quite easily.

Tip: (1) Ponyo $3.60 Bet365

Betting strategy: No bet

Race 3 – No Metro Wins LY 1200m

(1) Trevern just continues to be beautifully placed by the Taylor stable. He’s progressed through his grades very well this preparation, going from maiden, to class 1, class 3 and now a No-Metro-Win race. He never looked like getting beat after finding the front last start and I suspect it will be a similar story today.

(4) Requisition looks some value on the quick back up. Won in similar grade to this two starts ago and then didn’t get clear running until the 200m mark last start. That’s a handy form reference behind Eeyore Wayz and Go Forward.

(6) Llessur was a good run on WA debut behind Trevern, but just couldn’t bridge the gap. Does meet that horse 2kg better at the weights today but is likely to be giving him a start again.

(2) Mantelli next best.

Tip: (1) Trevern $2.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Trevern

TAB Sky Racing

Race 4 – Class 3 Handicap 1200m

Looks a nice race for (8) Cold Shizzle who was backed off the map first up and got the cash. Should enjoy a lovely run from barrier 4 here and will take some beating again.

There are a couple that you can make a case for a big odds though. (6) Mr Causeway was very well backed last start at Albany after a first up win, but dropped out to fail badly. Pulled up with a slow recovery so worth forgiving.

(4) Life For A Life didn’t do much first up at Narrogin but produced a similar run first up last prep before winning second up.

Tip: (8) Cold Shizzle $2.00 Sportsbet

Value: (6) Mr Causeway $21 & (4) Life For A Life $21 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Cold Shizzle, 0.25 units WIN Mr Causeway, 0.25 units WIN Life For A Life

Betfair

Race 5 – Class 1 Handicap C&G 1400m

Good little race.

(1) Westriver Miracle broke through for a deserved win last start. Prior to that had no luck at all when held up for the majority of the straight in a class 1 similar to this. Has to carry the full 60kg today but has a terrific final sectional on him so can continue winning.

(6) Hot Blooded should come across to either lead or sit outside the leader. Was good without a whole lot of luck first up but went straight to the front and bolted in last start. That was a day where the rail played very favourably which is the only little query.

(4) Almaher Man ran 2nd to Westriver Miracle last start after working hard to find the lead. Racing out of his grade given he’s still a maiden but does meet Westriver Miracle better at the weights and isn’t hopeless. Some chance he gets posted three-wide which won’t help.

(5) Elite Fighter and (8) Hilton are capable, while (9) Soulsana trialled well ahead of his stable debut for Roy Rogers.

Tip: (1) Westriver Miracle $3.10 BlueBet

Value: (9) Soulsana $10 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: No bet

Race 6 – Class 1 Handicap F&M 1400m

(11) Merivale Magic is no star but did run well first up from a spell. Went back to last and reeled off some decent closing splits, and gets senior jockey Shaun O’Donnell on today from an inside draw. Knockout chance in a race like this.

(10) Star Of Rosie did a good job to win on debut at York despite encountering a few traffic issues. The Durrant stable is absolutely flying at the moment so she has to be considered a leading chance.

(3) Midnight Mystery is a maiden racing in a class 1 but is knocking on the door with consecutive placings.

Tip: (11) Merivale Magic E/W $15/$3.90 Bet365

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Merivale Magic

BetDeluxe

Race 7 – Class 3 Handicap 2150m

Not an easy way to finish, could make a case for plenty of these, but not strong cases.

(3) Ima Sly Fox ran well first up and then started a well-backed favourite last start at Northam but was hampered and eased out of the race after a horse fell in front of him. Now we’re getting $12.

(9) Sunset Cruise appears for an in-form Holly Taylor stable. Did nothing first up but appreciated the drop in class at Narrogin last start.

(2) Black Chips has returned in good order this prep, with a win three starts ago before a couple of sound efforts.

(5) Dancing Jack runs the same sort of race every time but tends to find a few better.

Chances don’t end there.

Tip: (3) Ima Sly Fox $12 Bet365

Betting strategy: No bet

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