Ascot Racing Tips: Wednesday, December 9th

Odds Last Updated: December 10, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(1) Son Son is an exciting young horse from the Adam Durrant stable, with two wins from his first three starts, separated by an eye-catching 2^nd placing here at Ascot. He showed a different string to his bow last start when able to lead all the way at Bunbury, taking care of a very strong field. He was beaten two starts ago by Ghobella, who he meets again today, but I think he’s the better horse and he’s showed the ability to settle right on speed, unlike he did that day. The query here is the booking of 4kg claimer Austin Galati, who replaces the State’s in-form apprentice Laqdar Ramoly.

(5) Ghobella got the better of Son Son last time she raced, but I think from the draw today she’s going to have to come from behind Son Son, which plays into the hands of Son Son. Can still run well though.

(3) Captain Burglar had no luck at all last start, blocked the entire straight. That was Saturday grade so the drop back to Wednesday grade will suit. Barrier 1 is a slight query but Parnham will be keen not to repeat what happened last start. With a clear run he’s in the race.

(2) No Surrender ran 3^rd behind Ghobella and Son Son and meets the latter worse at the weights. I query whether his best form is on soft ground.

Tip: (1) Son Son $2.65 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Son Son

Odds Last Updated: December 10, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Not often I back horses first up off more than a year off the track but I think (9) Wilchino is a good chance here. She’s the $3.20 second favourite but she should arguably be favourite. Her recent trial was very good – she showed good speed and went to the line under little pressure, narrowly beating Domineer, who then came out and won first up at Northam. There was a 5L gap back to the third horse in the trial so I think that’s a good sign that Wilchino can come out and be very competitive.

(14) Graceful Girl is on debut for Team Williams and William Pike, so obviously has to be respected. Her recent trial was fair – she wasn’t put under a whole lot of pressure so it’s hard to get a gauge on just how much is under the hood. Barrier 11 means she is likely to be a fair way back and will probably be giving Wilchino a decent head start. No surprise to see her sail down the outside though.

(11) Tranquila Rose had no luck at all first up when trapped wide throughout. She was beaten out of sight but she’s since won a trial so I expect some improvement here at big odds.

(13) Purple Pearl is the way I’ll play the race at each way odds. She was competing against the likes of Kissonallfourcheeks and Chantorque last prep, which is very strong form. Comes into this untrialled this prep and also has the hoof filler off, so she could run a cheeky race first up.

Tip: (3) Purple Pearl E/W $9.00 Palmerbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Purple Pearl

Odds Last Updated: December 10, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Interesting race this. (1) Ginger Flyer looks the horse to beat, but I’m not sold on how this stable is going at the moment, with just two winners from their past 54 starters. The claim brings her in well at the weights and she’ll make her own luck out the front. Her only career win came over this track and distance.

(3) Dani Bella is ready to win but the jockey booking isn’t one that inspires me. I’m tipping that Bunbury race won by Sheza Chalmer last start will prove to be a very decent form race. If she can get a decent run from barrier 9, she should be very competitive.

(5) Doowahdiddy finally broke the maiden at Northam last start, albeit narrowly as the $1.40 favourite. She was only narrowly beaten two starts here at Ascot over a similar distance and really should be hard to beat.

The blowout is (2) Interstate, who ran last in its trial leading into today. First up last prep he was well supported and only run down late at Pinjarra. He also has form behind the likes of Chantrea which would make him a good chance in this. The query is that trial after being beaten out of sight at the end of last prep.

Tip: (3) Dani Bella $5.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Dani Bella

Odds Last Updated: December 10, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This looks a race between the top two in the market. Tipping (5) Western Rhythm to get the job done with William Pike replacing the likes of Carleen Hefel and Ben Paterson who have ridden her in her three starts this prep. She was very good first up before a plain run second up, and then had a chequered run in the straight last start. She ran the second fastest final 200m of the race once she got clear. Pike is the only jockey to have won on her so getting him back on looks a big positive.

(2) Mood Goddess has been good in two runs back this prep. She finished 1.3L ahead of Western Rhythm last start and should find this easier than what she’s been racing against. She ran 2^nd in her only previous start over the distance and third up, she looks a great winning chance.

(1) Shoes Of Ekraar can improve at double figure odds. He had no luck at all last start and can sit handier from the inside gate today. Has won over track and distance before.

Tip: (5) Western Rhythm $2.70 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Western Rhythm

Odds Last Updated: February 12, 2021, 11:46am (AEDT)

This is a great little race but one of the main chances has been scrathed this morning. (9) Gunmetal Grey goes on top, just. She won her trial and then won on debut at Bunbury despite sitting three-wide the trip. The horse she beat was Miss Aligned, who then won her next start, and Adore Me has also come out of that race and won since. She draws barrier 2 here for Carleen Hefel and with even luck she looks exceptionally hard to beat.

Her biggest danger is (4) Fair Justice, who ran a terrific race first up against the bias at Bunbury. I think that’s going to be a very good race as the winner Sheza Chalmer looks very smart. This horse came from last to run 3^rd on a day where it was hard to make ground from the back and out wide. Looks a terrific chance today.

The value in the race is (8) The Thunderess at $9.00. I think she should be much shorter. I was on track when she ran first up at Bunbury and I thought she would improve plenty from that first up run. She was a bit tubby and sweaty in the parade so that run should tighten her up nicely. She didn’t have much luck in the race, held up for the majority of the straight, and she was only 1.5L off Fair Justice who I’ve mentioned above. She goes from apprentice Carleen Hefel to Brad Rawiller and with a clear run I think she can be right in this.

Happy to have a very good bet here by backing Gunmetal Grey with a saver on Fair Justice.

Tip: (9) Gunmetal Grey $4.20 Bet365

Saver: (4) Fair Justice $4.45 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 3 units WIN Gunmetal Grey, 1 unit WIN Fair Justice

Odds Last Updated: December 10, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

I wouldn’t be surprised to see (6) Cornflower improve today after a disappointing run last start at Northam. She was vetted pre-race and passed fit to start that day, but was beaten a long way out and pulled up with a slow recovery. Prior to that she won here at Ascot over 1500m. With a decent run from barrier 7 she certainly isn’t the worst chance in this race.

(4) Secret Pearl comes here off back-to-back wins over 2200m. Small query dropping back to 1800m but looks the horse to beat on form.

(1) Bella’s Idol is on the quick back up from Saturday, (10) Hyperspace next best.

Tip: (6) Cornflower E/W $11 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Cornflower

Odds Last Updated: December 24, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(7) Shape Shifter was a good winner first up at Northam and I think she can go on with it here. She bolted in second up last preparation so if she improves off that first up effort, then she should be right in the thick of things in a race that looks a little bit thin. Brad Rawiller takes over from apprentice Carleen Hefel.

(6) Leica Jaguar has been good in both starts this preparation, running 2^nd first up and then 4^th last start on a track that was hard to make ground on. Should be thereabouts.

I was keen on (11) Advocator last start but she ran last after sitting three-wide without cover throughout. Prior to that she wasn’t beaten far by the likes of Bragwell and Chantorque, form which would see her very competitive in a midweek race like this.

Stablemate (3) Daisho gets a senior rider on third up from a spell and comes off a good run last start so must be included.

Keep an eye on (9) Katona first up.

Tip: (7) Shape Shifter $5.50 Ladbrokes

Value: (11) Advocator $16 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Shape Shifter, 0.25 units WIN Advocator